Rev Fae N 4 V 1 2

Vt |a m t r \, K a m t rt -I, | i ti t m | rt I1 1
| K 1I -1111
Revista Chilena
de Economa y Sociedad
|ata |Ia1 1 t k 1 m i r i sIrati t r |tt r t m i a
| r i tt rsi 1 a1 t tr t |t ] i ta M t Irt j t |i Iar a
UNIVERSIDAD TECNOLGICA METROPOLITANA
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| t rt t| t s | t st rta1 t s
| . . .K .. 1I -1111
Vt |a m t r \, K -I, ar Ii a] t 1 t | | i |t , | i ti t m | rt I1 1
REPRESENTANTE LEGAL
|a i s | i r It |att ri t
DIRECTOR
| aa | | t rr t }t | ., | t tar t
CONSEJO EDITORIAL
| r. | | | K i | t |at s | t t r] ar Iti s. j t ti a| | t st art| | | ai r | |t | t | t j arIm t r It 1 t t t ri a t 1 i sIt ri a |tt r t m i ta,
| r i tt rsi 1 a1 1 t | rar a1 a |sj a1 a
| r. |t rr ar 1 t 1 t| t a. | | | . 1 artar1 | r i tt rsi I | | i |t
EDITOR JEFE
| r. | t | t rIt | t r Irt ras M .
EDITOR DE TEXTOS
M ] . | |aa 1 i t M t |i r a M .
COMIT EDITORIAL
M ] . |1 a ar1 t | t r ta|t t ., | r i tt rsi 1 a1 t tr t |t ] i ta M t Irt j t |i Iar a . | | i |t
M ] . | |aa 1 i t M t |i r a M ., | r i tt rsi 1 a1 t tr t |t ] i ta M t Irt j t |i Iar a . | | i |t
| r. 1 t tIt r | t m t t |., | r i tt rsi 1 a1 t tr t |t ] i ta M t Irt j t |i Iar a . | | i |t
M ] . !t r] t |i | a | ., | r i tt rsi 1 a1 t tr t |t ] i ta M t Irt j t |i Iar a . | | i |t
|r ri | a t M aIa rar a |., | r i tt rsi 1 a1 t tr t |t ] i ta M t Irt j t |i Iar a . | | i |t
| r. t r] i t k . | t ra m t r , | r. t r |tt r t m i a | r i tt rsi 1 a1 | t m j |a It r st 1 t M a1 ri 1 | t tIt r t r | i t r ti as | t |i Ii tas
t ti t |t ] i a | r i tt rsi 1 a1 | t r Ii Ii ti a 1 t a|am ar ta . | t a| k ta1 t m i a 1 t | i t r ti as M t ra|t s | t |i Ii tas. |sj a1 a.
DISEO Y DIAGRAMACIN
| rt ] ram a | t m a r i tati t r | a |Ia ra
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Y K 1 |X| | | k K K || | k | | k M |K | || | | K 1 | | V | k | | |k | K | V || | | k | || K 1 |1 | | | k M | | 1 | 1 || -
k K k .
Revista Chilena de Economa
y Sociedad
a r Ii a ] t 1 t | | i |t , I 1
U N I V E R S I D A D
T E C N O L G I C A
ME TROP OL I TANA
! Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad
Vt |a m t r \, K a m t rt - I, | i ti t m | rt I1 1
| t ti sIa | | i |t r a 1 t |tt r t m i a t ti t 1 a1 t s a r a j a | |i tati t r ta aIri m t sIra| 1 t |a |ata |Ia1 1 t k 1 m i r i sIrati t r
|tt r t m i a 1 t |a | r i tt rsi 1 a1 t tr t |t ] i ta M t Irt j t |i Iar a.
Suscripcin (Tres nmeros)
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Secretaria Facultad - FAE
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|t r t . !t-I II I111 - II I11
|at. !t-I I1! ! I
Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad
Misin: Promover una visin conceptual e integrada de la sociedad, apoyando la generacin de lneas de
investigacin, a travs de la publicacin de artculos en el mbito de las ciencias sociales.
Objetivo y Cobertura Temtica: La Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad es una revista cientfico-tcnica
destinada a publicar artculos y los resultados de investigaciones tericas y aplicadas en el rea de las ciencias
econmicas y administrativas y su relacin con otras disciplinas del conocimiento.
Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad es una publicacin cuatrimestral de la Facultad de Administracin y
Economa de la Universidad Tecnolgica Metropolitana. Sus artculos estn indizados e integrados en la base de
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Est registrada en el Sistema Regional de Informacin en Lnea para Revistas Cientficas de Amrica Latina, El
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I Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
Sumario
Vt |a m t r \, K a m t rt -I, | i ti t m | rt I1 1
Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, |ata |Ia1 1 t k 1 m i r i sIrati t r |tt r t m i a
| K 1I -1111
EDITORIAL 9
COYUNTURA Y PERSPECTIVA 11
| i a] r t sIi tt j ara t | st tIt r sar i Iari t
Claudio Molina Mac-kay
ARTCULOS
|| 1 t | t r 1 t | |sIa1 t t r t | 1 r1 t |i | t ra|i sm t 1 t wa|It r |a t| t r . ra1 i ti t r !
tt a r Ia ra t r t | m ar t }t j t |i Ii tt -t tt r t m i tt 1 t | |sIa1 t
Claudio Llanos Reyes
| t |ati t r 1 t |ar] t | |att t r Irt t | trt ti m i t r It 1 t It r 1 t r ti a, |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s I1
rt a| r t a Ira| |as Iasas 1 t i r It rt s t r t | m t rta1 t Ii r ar ti t rt
Gonzalo Espinosa G., Enzo Seplveda V. y Alexis Vega B.
| r a rt ti si t r 1 t |as tari a| |t s rt |t tar It s j ara |a k ] rt i r 1 a sIri a 1 t rIt Ira Ii tt |a \I
Luis A. Valenzuela Silva
| t st sIati t r a|i tati t r t I k | | M k tt r t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t .
| r 1 i tt 1 t | rt 1 a tti t r 1 t |a | r 1 a sIri a M ar a IatIa rt ra t!
Juan M. Cortez Osorio
1 Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
Editorial
|r |a a |Ii m a t j t ta | t m t s rt a|i ta1 t a r
ar1 a t Ira| a}t a t It tIt 1 t |t ] rar j t si ti t r ar
1 i Ia r 1 i r |a | t ti sIa | | i |t r a 1 t |tt r t m i a
t ti t 1 a1 a r i tt | r ati t r a|. |s asi tt m t | t
tt |a |a t t | Vt |a m t r \ K a m t rt 1 t t r t rt
1 t I1 1 t r a t sIra | t ti sIa.
| sIt r a t t t r a m t rt i r t |a t a r It Ia | 1 t
ta aIrt arIi ta |t s, Irt s 1 t t ||t s j rt tt r i t r It s
1 t 1 t sIa t a 1 t s a a It rt s j t rIt r t t i t r It s a
t I ra s | r i t t rsi 1 a 1 t s a r t 1 t r a t sI ra
|ata |Ia1 1 t k 1 m i r i sIrati t r |tt r t m i a.
|| j ri m t r arIi ta |t j rt st r Ia t | Ira| a}t 1 t | | r.
| | a a 1 i t | | a r t s | t t s, | a i t r a r a | i t a | a
j rt j a t sIa t r1 t |i | t ra | 1 t wa |It r | a t | t r ,
j |ar It ar 1 t | a t t sIa Ia tt a r a 1 i rt tIa |i ] att r
t t r | a t t r I i r a i 1 a 1 1 t a r a | i r t a 1 t
j t r sam i t r It t tt r t m i tt -j t |i Ii tt tt r st r-
ta1 t r a|t m ar tt r |a | a s| a t 1 a 1 t a r t r1 t r
j t |i Ii tt -t tt r t m i tt 1 t r 1 t t | |sIa1 t Ia t ra
taj at 1 t rt ] a |ar |a t tt r t m i a |a tri si s 1 t |
taj i Ia|i sm t .
|| st ] a r 1 t arIi ta |t , 1 t aa It ri a 1 t |t s M ] s.
| t r ta|t |sj i r t ta | ., |r tt t j a |tt 1 a V.,
k | t t i s V t ] a | . , j | a r I t a t t m t t | } t I i t t
tt ri Ii tar si t | m t rta1 t Ii r ar ti t rt t| i |t r t
rt t t ] t | a s st 1 a | t s | a t t r I rt ] a r | t s
Ia r 1 am t r It s 1 t |ar] t j |att 1 t |a t tt r t m i a.
| t | t s rt sa | I a 1 t s t | I t r i 1 t s t r | a
i r tt sIi ] a t i t r , st t t r t |a t | a t t r | | i |t
t ti sIt a r a rt |ati t r 1 t |ar] t j |att t r Irt |a
asa 1 t | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a, |a asa
1 t | r I t rt s | t a | K t a I ra | | a s I a sa s 1 t
rt It rr t s rt a|t s 1 t |ar] t j |att 1 t |t s atIi tt s
I i r a r t i t rt s, j t r | t t a a | r t t s j t si | | t
rt t | a t a r | a | i j t I t si s It rm a | a 1 a t r | a
i r tt sIi ] ati t r .
| | It rt t r a rIi t a |t j a | |i t a 1 t j t rIt r t t t a |
j rt It st r | a i s Va |t r t a t |a i |t a . | r t sIt
I ra | a } t t | a a I t r rt t i sa | a s j ri r t i j a | t s
tari a| |t s | a t a sa }a i ti t aIt tIar |a atIi ti 1 a1
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a| | t rIt Ira Ii tt |a, tt m t |t st r
t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a|, |t s j rt ti t s t tIt rr t s
|a t a j a t i 1 a 1 t t i t sa , t r Irt t Ira s. | a s
t t r t | a si t r t s a | t a r t a 1 a s t r t | I ra | a } t
st 1 a|ar | a t st IraIa 1 t a r ra | rt tt m j |t }t
j t rt aIratIi tt , 1 t trt ti t r It i m j t rIar ti a,
| a t 1 t | i t ra t t r t i I a r m a t r i r I t rt s a |
1 t m t sI ra 1 t | a sI a a | t ra j t r j a rI t 1 t
i r tt sIi ] a1 t rt s t| i |t r t s t r |t s tam j t s 1 t |a
m i trt t tt r t m i a, |a t r] ar i tati t r i r 1 a sIri a|
|a r a t ta t tt r t m i a i r sIi Ia ti t r a|.
|| ta arIt arIi ta |t j rt st r Ia |a i r tt sIi ] ati t r
rt a|i ta1 a j t r t | M ] . !a ar | t rIt t 1 st ri t . |r
t sI t I ra | a } t st t sI a 1 i t t | j rt t t st 1 t
1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r tt r t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t
1 t st ri t s t tt r t m i tas, att r1 t a |a rt a|i 1 a1
t | i | t r a , t r t | t t I t r | r 1 a sI ri a |
M a r a Ia t Ia rt rt m t 1 i 1 t j t r t | | r 1 i t t 1 t
| rt 1 a t Ii t i 1 a 1 Vt r Ia s | i si t a s | | V | , a
Editorial
Ira t t s 1 t | m t It 1 t X I k | | M k . | | a a It r
j rt st r Ia t r sa Ira | a }t a r a t t m j a ra t i t r
t r Irt |a st ri t t tt r t m i ta t ri ] i r a| |a st ri t
1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a 1 t | | | V | t r Irt |t s m t st s
1 t m a t 1 t I 1 1 I a | ri | 1 t I 1 1 1 ,
tt r t|a t r 1 t | a t |a st ri t 1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a
t s a r m t }t r i r 1 i ta1 t r j ara t | ar a|i si s 1 t
t t a r Ia ra , j t rm i Ii t r 1 t 1 t It rm i r a r 1 t
m a r t ra m a s t j t rIa r a |a j t si t i t r 1 t |a
t t t r t m i a | t s j t si | | t s | a i t | rt s 1 t
It r 1 t r ti a.
|ti sIt r i m j t rIar It s i r tt r Ii tt s j ara | a t |as
j a | | i t a t i t r t s 1 t I t 1 a s | a s a rt a s 1 t |
tt r t ti m i t r It st Irar sIt rm t r t r a r Ii r j t r
si m i sm a, si t r 1 t m as i m j t rIar It j ara |t s
aa It rt s j a | |i tar si r i m j t rIar |a rt |t tar ti a
| a t It r ] ar |t s Ira| a}t s | a t 1 ar tt r It r i 1 t
a |t s arIi ta |t s t |a j t si | |t aa 1 i t r ti a a |a | a t
st j rt It r 1 t ||t ] ar.
| t m t tt r st ta t r ti a 1 t |t ar It ri t r, st tt rrt
t | ri t s] t 1 t t |t ] i r It m as 1 t Ira| a}t | a t st ar
Iati |t s 1 t j a | |i tar t r rt ti sIas 1 t i m j atIt
t i t r Ii Ii t t | | t t i t |t , t r 1 t sm t 1 rt 1 t
It m aIi tas | a t j a t 1 t r aj t rIar rt sj a t sIas a
i r t t ] r i I a s 1 t ] ra r i r I t rt s I t t r i t t ,
t tt r t m i tt st ti a|, j rt j t si It i r Iri r st tt 1 t
r a t sIra | t t i sIa . | a j t ri t 1 i t i 1 a 1 1 t | a
| t ti sIa, ta|i 1 a1 j t rIi r t r ti a 1 t |t s arIi ta |t s
| a t st j a | |i | a t r , 1 t | t j t rm i Ii rr t s i r t r
| a sta 1 t a r rt tt r t ti m i t r It t tIt rr t tt m t
t s a | t a r t a r | a t a I t ] t ri a t i t | t , i r
t | st si t r arr t s, 1 t st am t s si Ia ar |a | t ti sIa
tt m t a r rt It rt r It t r It m aIi tas st ti a|t s
t t t r t m i t a s, rt a | i t a 1 t s j t r a a I t rt s
r ati t r a|t s t tIrar }t rt s, tt r |a aj |i tati t r
1 t a r tri It ri t ri ] a rt st t r |a st |t tti t r 1 t
I ra | a } t s, m t 1 i a r I t a r j rt t t st 1 t
t ta|a ati t r ar t r i m a aj |i ta1 t a |t s arIi ta |t s
ar It s 1 t st r att j Ia1 t s j ara sa j a | |i tati t r .
|i r a |m t r It , 1 t st t a ] ra 1 t t t r a It 1 t s |t s
m i t m | rt s 1 t | | t m i It | 1 i It ri a |, | a i t r t s
I i t r t r a r a m i si t r I a r 1 a m t r I a | t r | a
st |t tti t r rt ti si t r 1 t |t s arIi ta |t s.
| aa | | t rr t }t | t m t rt
Decano
Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad; 4(1): 11-12, Diciembre 2010
Coyuntura y Perspectiva
Diciembre 2010
Diagnstico para el sector sanitario
| a 1 t | a t t | st rt i t i t 1 t a ] a a j t I a | | t
j rt st r Ia ti t rIt s t |t m t r It s 1 t t tt r t m i as
1 t t sta|a, | a t t ti sIt t stasa ri ta|i 1 a1 t r Irt
tt m j t Ii 1 t rt s, sa t sIra tIa ra i r 1 a sIri a| st
aj rt ti m a a |a 1 t a r m t r t j t |i t r aIa ra|. | t
| t t| t , a r a tt t tt r sIra i 1 a a r a j |ar Ia 1 t
IraIam i t r It 1 t a] a as t i r sIa|a1 as |as rt 1 t s
1 t Ia | t ri as j ara a| asIt tt r ti t rIa tt r a, t s
1 i Ii ti | | a t t Ira t m j rt sa sa j t rj t r ] a rt 1 t s
t r |a m i sm a tt r a. |t r |t ar It ri t r, |a t m j rt sa
i r sIa|a1 a j rt st r Ia tt r Ia}as rt |aIi tas 1 t tt sIt
Ii t r t j t 1 t r 1 t m t rt a 1 t j a ra t t | ra r
j rt t i t s a | I t s, 1 a 1 t sa t a ra t I t r 1 t
m t r t j t |i t .
| sIt | a | | t t a 1 t a rt ] a | a r | a t sIra t Ia ra
Iari Iari a 1 t tt r tt si t r t s 1 t | st tIt r, 1 t | i 1 t
a | a t t r a r a a t Ii t i 1 a 1 m t r t j t |i t a , t |
a sa ari t r t t sIa t r tt r 1 i ti t r t s 1 t t |t ] i r
| a i t r |t aIi t r 1 a, r i m t r t s t ti ] i r ta|i 1 a1 ,
j rt ti t st ] a ri 1 a1 1 t st rti ti t .
| t s j rt t i t s I i } a 1 t s 1 i sI i r ] a t r t r I rt
st rt i t i t s 1 t j rt 1 a t t i t r -1 i sIri | a t i t r 1 t
a] a a j t Ia| |t 1 t 1 i sj t si ti t r -rt tt |t tti t r
1 t a] a as st rti 1 as, t sIt s st rti ti t s Ii t r t r
1 i It rt r ti as i m j t rIar It s t r |t | a t st rt Ii t rt
a t t sIt s 1 t i r sIa |a r rt 1 t s. K t t | sIa r It ,
t ti sIt r si m i |i Ia 1 t s t r |t | a t st rt Ii t rt a |a
a1 m i r i sIrati t r 1 t |as t m j rt sas, j t r |t ta a|,
|a m i sm a t m j rt sa tt r tt si t r ari a 1 t It r Ia |a
tt r tt si t r ] |t | a| 1 t |t s st rti ti t s.
| | si sIt m a ] |t | a | 1 t t t r t t si t r j t rm i It
aj rt tt t| ar t tt r t m i as 1 t t sta|a j rt st r It s
t r |a a 1 m i r i sIra t i t r 1 t |a s t m j rt sa s,
t | It r t r a r a Iari Ia | a t r t rt sa |It t r t rt sa a
|t s a sa ari t s. 1 Ira tt r Ia}a | a t j rt st r Ia a r a
tt r tt si t r ] |t | a| t s | a t j t rm i It , t sIra tIa rar
t m j rt sas 1 t Iam a1 t t j Ii m t . |a st |a ti t r 1 t
tt r tt si t r ] |t | a| |a Ia r ti t r rt ] a |aIt ri a
Iari Iari a r t t s si m j |t 1 t 1 t Ii r i r, 1 a1 t | a t
t ti sIt r tari a| |t s It tr i tas | a t 1 t | t r It r t rst
t r ta t r Ia t r ta1 a tast , Ia|t s tt m t .
| a s caractersticas del sistema de
alcantarillado. i a Ii |i tar rt 1 t s tt r }a r Ias t
st j ara1 as tt r |as 1 t a] a as ||a ti as, t si st
rt | a i t rt r t r t j |ar Ias t |t ta1 t ras 1 t a] a as
st rt i 1 a s j a ra | | t t a r| a s a j | a r I a s 1 t
IraIam i t r It .
|a cantidad y calidad de las aguas servidas
recibidas en la planta. |a tari a| i |i 1 a1 | a t
1 i t| t s j aram t Irt s j a t 1 t r t tj t ri m t r Iar,
Ia r It t r |a t j t ra t i t r ra Ii r a ri a 1 t t t rIt
j |att tt m t t r t | Ia Ia rt , t r | a t st j a t 1 t r
j rt 1 a ti r i m j t rIar It s 1 t sti ati t r t s t r |as
1 t m ar 1 as.
Condiciones climticas, pluviomtricas,
topogrficas, |as taratIt ri sIi tas 1 t |t s taa tt s
1 t | a s a ] a a s I ra I a 1 a s, t | j t I t r t i a | 1 t
Claudio Molina Mac-Kay
rt a Ii |i tati t r 1 t |as a] a as IraIa1 as, t | j rt ti t
1 t | sa t |t t | j rt ti t 1 t | a] a a.
Y |as caractersticas de las descargas de las
industrias, I a r I t j t r sa s t t | a m t r t s
t a | i 1 a 1 , t t m t j t r sa 1 i t t rsi 1 a 1 , 1 t
a t I i t i 1 a 1 t s j rt t t st s | a t j a t 1 t r
1 t sarrt ||arst t r |a tt r a 1 t tt m j t It r ti a 1 t
|a j |ar Ia.
i r t m | ar] t , a| m ar] t r 1 t |as 1 i Ii ta |Ia1 t s
| a t rt j rt st r Ia |a Ii }a t i t r Ia ri Ia ri a t r |a
st |a ti t r 1 t tt r tt si t r ] |t | a|, st j t rm i It
a| araIar tt sIt s j t r |as t tt r t m i as 1 t t sta|a
| a t st ] t r t ra r . 1 I rt a sj t t I t | a t
t a ra t It ri t a a | st t It r t s |a r t t t si 1 a 1 1 t
1 t sarrt ||ar |as atIi ti 1 a1 t s | a t aa r r t |t ] rar
r i tt |t s t j Ii m t s 1 t tt | t rIa ra j t | |ati t r a|,
t s 1 t ti r sa | si sIt r aa r IatIt rt s 1 t Ii ti Iari t s
t r asj t tIt s i m j t rIar It s 1 t |t s st rti ti t s
sar i Iari t s, |t s | a t st j rt st r Iar t r | a}t s
j t rt t r I a } t s 1 t , t t a t a a t i t r 1 t a ] a a s
st rti 1 as j |ar Ias 1 t IraIam i t r It 1 t t sIas.
| a 1 a s t sI a s r t t t si 1 a 1 t s | a t r t st r
ta | i t rIas t r It rm a t j Ii m a st rt | a i t rt a r a
m at r t Ii ti t r ti a t r |as t m j rt sas |t ] rar
r i tt |t s 1 t i r tt rsi t r | a t j t rm i Iar a| asIt tt r
|as r t tt si 1 a1 t s Ia Ia ras.
| r t 1 t | t s j rt | | t m a s | a t j rt t t a j a
atIa a|m t r It t s 1 i |a ti 1 ar |a t sIra tIa ra 1 t
j rt j i t 1 a1 1 t |as t m j rt sas 1 t | st tIt r. |s
1 t ti r, si t r] ar i tar t | st tIt r st | rt a r a | ast
j ri ta1 a t t sIaIa|.
| r j ri m t r I i j t 1 t t r] a r i t a t i t r t s | a
j ri taIi tati t r It Ia| 1 t |as t m j rt sas 1 t t | ras
sar i Iari as |a | a t i r It rr a|i tari a |t s ri t s] t s 1 t
|t s j rt t tIt s 1 t i r tt rsi t r a ||t tar a ta| t .
a | j ri t a Ii t a t i t r t t i ] t Ira r sj a rt r t i a 1 t
i r It rm ati t r ti sa a|i tar t r | a t j i t | a t 1 ar
|as t m j rt sas 1 t m t r t r Iam a1 t rt sj t tIt 1 t
|as ] rar 1 t s. | t s1 t t sIt j a r It 1 t ti sIa t s
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j t r j arIt 1 t | ] t | i t rr t . t 1 a tt t | a t |as
}a sIi Ii t a t i t r t s 1 t |a j ri t a Ii t a t i t r r t st
t r I i t r 1 t r j t r t | | a 1 t 1 t | a m a t r
tt m j t Ii Ii ti 1 a1 .
1 Irt s Ii j t s 1 t t r] ar i tati t r st r m as | i t r
| i | ri 1 a s, t t r si sI t r t r I a t i | i I a r | a
i r t t rj t ra t i t r 1 t | st t I t r j ri t a 1 t a | a
atIi ti 1 a1 -r t 11X -, a|] a r as 1 t t ||as a st
i m j |t m t r Iart r . |r Irt t sIas st |a ti t r t s, ta| t
m t r t i t r a r |t s t t r Ira It s 1 t ] t sIi t r t t r
i r tt rsi t r |a |i ti Iati t r 1 t st rti ti t s.
|sIt s | ar It r i 1 t t ti It rt |aIi tt j a t sIt | a t
rt | a i t rt r 1 t | a t ri t r Ia t i t r st t i a | | a t
j rt j t rti t r a t | |sIa1 t .
| t r a |Ii m t , t sIa |a j rt j i t 1 a1 t sIaIa| t r a r
1 1 X t s a | st |a Ia m t r It i r t i a | |t 1 a 1 a |a
t sIra tIa ra t tt r t m i ta atIa a|.
| |aa 1 i t M t |i r a M at-| a
k ta1 t m i tt | t j arIam t r It 1 t | t r Ia| i |i 1 a1
| t sIi t r |i r ar ti t ra.
Artculos
! Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, 4(1): 15 - 27, Diciembre 2010
Resumen
| sI t I ra | a } t j | a r I t a | a t | a j rt j a t sI a
t r1 t | i | t ra | 1 t wa | I t r | a t | t r t sI a t t
1 i rt t I a m t r I t | i ] a 1 a j t r a r | a 1 t a | a
tt r Ii r a i 1 a1 1 t a r a |i r t a 1 t j t r sam i t r It
t tt r t m i tt -j t |i Ii tt tt r st rta1 t r a|t m ar
j t r t Irt a |a | a s| a t 1 a 1 t a r t r1 t r j t |i Ii tt -
t tt r t m i tt 1 t r 1 t t | |sIa1 t Ia t ra taj at 1 t
rt ] a | a r | a t t t r t m i a | a s t ri si s 1 t |
taj i Ia|i sm t . | ri si s | a t t r t | si ] |t XX a
}a i ti t 1 t m a t| t s tt r It m j t rar t t s | a| i a
t t r 1 a t i 1 t a | a s ] a t rra s m a r 1 i a | t s, | a
1 i tIa1 a ra r ati |a t tj ar si t r 1 t |a i r I|a t r ti a
st ti t Ii ta
I
.
|r t sIt m artt t | t r1 t r j t |i Ii tt | a sta1 t
It r i a tt m t t | }t Ii tt , j t r a r |a1 t , i m j t 1 i r
a r rt ] rt st a| j asa1 t m arta1 t j t r |a ] a t rra,
|a tri si s, |a 1 i tIa1 a ra |a j t |ari tati t r j t |i Ii ta
, j t r t Irt , rt 1 a ti r |a i r I|a t r ti a 1 t |as i 1 t as
ar Ii taj i Ia|i sIas 1 t tt rIt st ti t Ii tt .
Palabras clave: 1 r1 t |i | t ra|i sm t , k |t m ar i a,
j t sI] a t rra , | sIa 1 t , t a j i Ia |i sm t , wa |It r
|a t| t r .
Abstract
This paper presents the idea that Walter
Euckens ordoliberalism was directly linked
both to the continuity of a line of
conservative German economic thought and
to the search for a political-economic order
where the State was able to regulate the
economy and the crisis of capitalism. This
crisis, in the opinion of many
contemporaries, led to the world wars, the
Nazi dictatorship and the expansion of
Soviet influence.
In this framework the political order was
intended to prevent a return to the past
marked by war, the crisis, dictatorship, and
political polarization and to reducing the
influence of the Soviet anti-capitalist ideas.
Keywords: Ordoliberalism, Germany,
Postwar, State, Capitalism, Walter Eucken.
JEL Classification: B1, B2 and B12.
Trabajo desarrollado en el marco de una estada de investigacin en la Universidad de Passau, Alemania, por invitacin
del catedrtico de Neue und Neues Geschichte Dr. Hans-Cristof Kraus.
2 Ver: Judt, Tony, Postguerra. Una Historia de Europa desde 1945. (Editorial Tauros: Espaa, 2005).
| t tIt r t r 1 i sIt ri a.
k ta1 t m i tt 1 t 1 i sIt ri a | t r It m j t rar t a. | r sIi Ia It 1 t 1 i sIt ri a
| t r Ii Ii ti a | r i tt rsi 1 a1 | aIt |i ta 1 t Va|j arai st
t|aa 1 i t .||ar t s a tt.t|
El deber del Es El deber del Es El deber del Es El deber del Es El deber del Estado en el Or tado en el Or tado en el Or tado en el Or tado en el Ordoliber doliber doliber doliber doliberalismo de W alismo de W alismo de W alismo de W alismo de Walter Eucken: alter Eucken: alter Eucken: alter Eucken: alter Eucken:
T TT TTr rr rradicin y c adicin y c adicin y c adicin y c adicin y co oo ooyuntur yuntur yuntur yuntur yuntura en el manejo poltic a en el manejo poltic a en el manejo poltic a en el manejo poltic a en el manejo poltico-ec o-ec o-ec o-ec o-econmic onmic onmic onmic onmico del Es o del Es o del Es o del Es o del Estado tado tado tado tado
1 11 11
t Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
1. Introduccin
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tt r Ii ] a rati t r 1 t | 1 r1 t |i | t ra|i sm t , | a t st
1 t sarrt ||t 1 a rar It |a 1 t ta1 a 1 t 111 t r |a
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t tti 1 t r Ia|
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1 a rati t r | i sIt ri ta 1 t r Irt 1 t | j t r sam i t r It
j t |i Ii tt -t tt r t m i tt a|t m ar t | ta a| asa m i t
a r a trt ti t r It j rt j t r 1 t rar ti a 1 a rar It t |
j t ri t 1 t 1 t tri si s t tt r t m i tas j t |i Ii tas | a t
1 a rar It |a j ri m t ra m i Ia1 1 t | si ] |t XX st
t tj rt sart r t r It rm a 1 ram aIi ta t r |a | ri m t ra
t ] a r 1 a | a t rra M a r 1 i a|
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1 t s j a rIt s, | a j ri m t ra t t r t t r Ira 1 a t r
st 1 a | a r | t s t | t m t r I t s ] t r t ra | t s 1 t | a
Ira1 i ti t r 1 t i r It rtt r ti t r 1 t | |sIa1 t t r |a
t tt r t m i a | a t st i r aa ] a rt 1 a rar It t | si ] |t
XV | | | , j arIi ta |arm t r It t r k |t m ar i a, | asIa |a
t ] a r 1 a | a t rra M a r 1 i a|.
| a st ] a r 1 a m t sIra ra |a s t a ra t It ri sIi t a s
j rt j i a s 1 t | j t r sa m i t r It t r1 t |i | t ra | 1 t
wa|It r |a t| t r 1 1!1 , | a t ] t sIa1 t t r
|a j ri m t ra m i Ia1 1 t | si ] |t XX, Ia t | t rt 1 t rt
1 t a r a Ira1 i ti t r tt r st rta1 t ra j rt t ta j a1 a
j t r |t s t It t It s st t i a |t s j t |i Ii t t s 1 t |a
t tt r t m i a taj i Ia|i sIa. |a t a1 t m as a r a 1 t |as
j t sIa ras | a t i r I|a t r ti t t r t | 1 t sarrt ||t 1 t
|a It rm a t r | a t t | | sIa 1 t 1 t k |t m a r i a
|t 1 t ra| tt r 1 a }t |a t tt r t m i a tt r t | t | }t Ii tt
1 t t |t tar t | | i t r t sIar st ti a| tt r It r t r |t s
tt r I|i tIt s ] t r t ra1 t s j t r |a t tt r t m i a.
t
2.- La intervencin del Estado en los
problemas socio-econmicos: la
continuidad y sus lmites.
|a 1 i sta si t r j t |i Ii ta t | It rr t a| rt | | a t 1 t | i a
3 Paul Nolte, define el pensamiento de Eucken dentro de un conservadurismo creyente en el Estado y de carcter
catlico social. Ver: Nolte, Paul, Die Ordnug der deutschen Gesellschaft. Selbstentwurf und Selbstbeschreibung in
20. Jahrhundert. (Verlag C.H. Beck: Mnchen, 2000). p. 301 y 383 ss.
4 Una propuesta que coloca al ordoliberalismo dentro de una corriente de mayor duracin dentro del liberalismo es A.
J. Nicholls, en su trabajo Freedom With Responsability: The Social Market Economy in Germany 1918-1963 postula
que durante la Republica de Weimar se desarroll una forma de neo-liberalismo (neo-liberalism) que fue representada
por Walter Eucken, Wilhelm Rpke, Alfred Mller-Armak entre otros y que sentaron las bases de una propuesta de
Tercera Va (Third Way) que reconociendo la importancia del libre mercado, enfatizaron el rol conductor (no
planificador) del Estado en las materias econmicas. Ver: Nicholls, A.J. Freedom With Responsability: The Social Market
Economy in Germany 1918-1963. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994).
5 Influyentes pensadores Europeos como Walter Eucken, William Beveridge, Milton Keynes, Karl Polanyi, entre otros,
reconocieron la existencia de una crisis dentro del orden econmico liberal y vieron en el Estado al principal
instrumento de solucin de la crisis. Desde distintas pticas plantearon la urgencia de una regulacin u orden del
sistema capitalista por parte de los Estados. As mismo este trabajo toma distancia de la generalizacin que desarroll
Foucault en Nacimiento de la Biopoltica en trminos de considerar el tema de subsidiariedad del ordoliberalismo
como una de las bases del desarrollo del neoliberalismo. De todas formas este aspecto en un tema que va ms all de
los lmites de este trabajo. Ver: Foucault, M. Nacimiento de la biopoltica. Mxico: Fondo de Cultura Econmica, 2007.
6 Sobre el carcter del Estado de bienestar alemn existe un cierto acuerdo en apuntarlo en la categora de conservador,
frente a los de tipo social demcrata y liberal. En esto coinciden tanto las categoras desarrolladas por Espining-
Andersen; Leibfried; Kangas y Korpi, entre otros. Sobre esto ver: Esping-Andersen G. The three worlds of welfare
capitalism. London: Polity, 1990; Korpi W. Faces of inequality: gender, class and patterns of inequalities in different
types of welfare states. En: Soc Polit 2000; 7:12791. Korpi W, Palme J. The paradox of redistribution and the strategy
of equality: welfare state institutions, inequality and poverty in the Western countries. En Sociol Rev 1998; 63:66287;
Kangas O. The politics of social security: on regressions, qualitative comparisons and cluster analysis. En: Janoski T,
Hicks A, eds. The comparative political economy of the welfare state. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994:346
65.
El deber del Estado en el Ordoliberalismo de Walter Eucken Tradicin y coyuntura en el manejo poltico-econmico del Estado
}a ] a r t | | sIa 1 t 1 t r Irt 1 t |t s j rt | |t m a s
st ti a|t s ] t r t ra1 t s j t r |a t tt r t m i a j a t 1 t
st r ra sIrt a 1 a j a ra t t t i 1 t r It - | a sIa |a
ar Ii ] i t 1 a1 t|asi ta, j arIi ta |arm t r It t r |t
| a t st rt Ii t rt a |a rt I|t ti t r j t |i Ii ta t r It rr t
a | a rt ] a | a t i t r 1 t | t s j rt | | t m a s
t t t r t m i t t s st t i a | t s 1 t | a s a t t i t r t s
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.
| sI a s It rm a s 1 t t t r I t r t i t r 1 t | a s
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rt ] a |ati t r t s rt |ati t r a1 as tt r |t s r i tt |t s 1 t
sa|ari a|t s, tt m t t | |sIaIa It ||i sa| t |i r t 1 t
m t 1 i a1 t s 1 t | si ] |t XV | | | rar | rt Ia1 a , t |a
j t |i Ii ta 1 t | | am t ra|i sm t k |t m ar i a . | t rt
j rt It tti t r a| Ira| a}t r t st t sIa| |t ti t t r t sIt
j t ri t 1 t Ira| a}t i r Iar Ii | 1 t m a }t rt s .
t ri a t | t t r } a r It 1 t Ira r sIt rm a t i t r t s
j t |i Ii tas t tt r t m i tas i r i ti a1 as a Ii r t s 1 t |
si ] | t X V | | | t | | a t j | a r I t a ri a t | rt |
tt r It r t 1 t r rt ] a |a1 t r 1 t | |sIa1 t st | rt 1 t
|t s j rt | |t m as st ti a|t s

.
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att r It ti m i t r It s | a t tam | i art r j rt Ia r 1 a
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t ri ] t r a a r a r a t ta It rm a 1 t j t |i Ii ta st ti a|
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t }t rti t rt r a r a 1 rasIi ta Irar sIt rm ati t r t r
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r t tt si 1 a1 1 t t sIa| |t tt r r i tt |t s 1 t | i t r t sIar
st t i a | , j t r j a rI t 1 t | | sI a 1 t t sI a t t
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7 Rassem, Mohamed, Wohlfahrt, Wohltat, Wohlttigkeit, Caritas, en Geschichtliche Grundbegriffe. Historisches Lexikon
zur politish-sozialen Sprache in Deutschland. (Klett-Cotta: Stuttgard,1992), p. 595-603.
8 Seidel, Bruno, Sozialpolitik, en Handwrterbuch der Sozialwissenschaften. (Gustav Fischer-Stuttgart, 1956), p. 532-
539.
9 Hintze, Otto, Feudalismo y Capitalismo. Recopilacin de Gerhard Oestreich. (Editorial Alfa: Barcelona, 1987). p. 84.
10 Segn el Geschichtliche Grundbegriffe. Historisches Lexicon zur politisch-sozialen Sprache in Deutschland (1992),
es uno de los conceptos claves del siglo XVIII, su significado hace referencia al bienestar individual y el bienestar
comunitario.
11 Ver: Schmidt, Manfred. et al. Der Wohlfahrtsstaat. (VS Verlag fr Sozialwissenschaften: Wiesbaden, 2007), p. 123 ss.
12 Ullrich, Carsten, Soziologie des Wohlfahrtsstaates. Eine Einfrung. (Campus Studium: Frankfurt, 2005), p. 17.
Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
i r aa ] a rart r tt r |a rt tt |a ti t r i r 1 a sIri a|
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13 Ver: Ritter, Gerhard, Der Sozialstaat. Entstehung und Entwicklung im internationalen Vergleich. Oldenburg: Mnchen,
1991 y Nolte, Paul, Die Ordnug der deutschen Gesellschaft. Selbstentwurf und Selbstbeschreibung in 20. Jahrhundert.
(Verlag C.H. Beck: Mnchen, 2000).
14 Uno de los textos interpretativos clsicos ms importantes para adentrarse en Cameralismo es el de Axel Nielsen,
Die Entstehund der deutschen Kameralwissenschaft im 17. Jahrhundert. (Verlag von Gustav Fisher: Jena, 1911).
15 Montoro, Rodrigo, Escases, necesidad y bienestar: apuntes para una sociologa de la economa, en Revista Espaola
de Investigaciones Sociolgicas. Nmero 30 (abril junio) 1985. p. 82 83.
16 Eucken, Walter, Grundstze der Wirtschaftpolitik. (Rowohlt: Hamburg, 1959). p.21.
17 Kaufmann, FranzXaver, Varianten des Wohlfahrsstaats. (Edition Suhrkamp: Frankfurt am Main, 2003), p. 27.
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18 Kaufmann, Franz Xaver, Varianten des Wohlfahrsstaats. (Edition Suhrkamp: Frankfurt am Main, 2003), p. 269.
19 Ver, entre otros: van Riel, Arthur y Schram Arthur, Weimar Economic Decline, Nazi Economic Recovery, and the
Stabilization of Political Dictatorship, en The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 53, No. 1 (Mar., 1993), pp. 71-105.
20 Evans, Richard. El III Reich en el poder. (Pennsula: Barcelona, 2007). p 387 ss.
21 Hobsbawm apunta sobre esto: Alemania explot los recursos y la mano de obra de Europa ocupada y trat a la
poblacin no alemana como una poblacin inferior y en casos extremos los polacos, particularmente los rusos y los
judos - , como a una mano de obra esclava que no mereca ni siquiera la atencin necesaria para que siguiera con
vida. En 1944, la mano de obra extranjera haba aumentado hasta constituir la quinta parte del total (el 30 por 100
estaba empleada en la industria de armamento). Hobsbawm, Eric, Historia del Siglo XX. (Crtica: Buenos Aires, 2006).
p. 55.
22 Ver: Bessel, Richard, Alemania, 1945. (Ediciones B: Barcelona, 2009), p. 13.
23 Ver: Herbst, Ludolff, Der Totale Krieg un die Ordnung der Wirtschaft. (Deutsche Verlag Anstalt, 1982).
I1 Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
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24 Hobsbawm apunta sobre esto: Alemania explot los recursos y la mano de obra de Europa ocupada y trat a la
poblacin no alemana como una poblacin inferior y en casos extremos los polacos, particularmente los rusos y
los judos - , como a una mano de obra esclava que no mereca ni siquiera la atencin necesaria para que siguiera con
vida. En 1944, la mano de obra extranjera haba aumentado hasta constituir la quinta parte del total (de esta el 30 por
100 estaba empleada en la industria de armamento). Hobsbawm, Eric, Historia del Siglo XX. Crtica: Buenos Aires,
2006. p. 55.
25 Ver: Bessel, Richard, cit.
26 Hobsbawm, Eric, cit, p. 54-55.
27 Ver: Herbst, Ludolff, cit.
28 Judt, Tony, cit. p. 35.
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29 Vanberg, Viktor, The Freiburg School: Walter Eucken and Ordoliberalism, en: Freiburger Diskussionspapiere zur
Ordnungskonomik. Institut fr Allgemeine Wirtschaftsforschung; Abteilung fr Wirtschaftspolitik, 4/11. p. 1.
30 Eucken, Walter, Grundstze der Wirtschaftpolitik...p. 21
31 Eucken, Walter, cit. p.21.
32 Eucken, Walter, Grundstze der Wirtschaftpolitik...p. 19.
II Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
t tt r t m i a j t |i Ii ta 1 t | |i | rt m t rta1 t
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33 Eucken, Walter, cit. p. 20.
34 Eucken, Walter, cit. p.20. Traduccin del autor.
35 Temin, Peter, Soviet and Nazi Economic Planning in the 1930s, en The Economic History Review, New Series, Vol. 44,
No. 4 (Nov., 1991), pp. 573-593.
36 Eucken, Walter, ber die Gesamtrichtung der Wirtschaftspolitik (1946), en Eucken, Walter, Ordnungspoltik . (Lit
Verlag Mnster - Hamburg. 1999), p.10.
37 Eucken, Walter, cit. p. 11-12.
39 Eucken, Walter, cit. p. 17 ss.
40 Eucken, Walter, Ordnungspoltik . (Lit Verlag Mnster - Hamburg. 1999), p. 16.
41 Oswalt, Walter, Was ist Ordnungspolitik? en Ordnungspoltik, cit. p. 64 ss.
42 Eucken, Walter, cit. p.34.
43 Karl Polanyi en la Gran Transformacin seala que la creencia en el libre mercado es una utopa que ha puesto en
peligro a la humanidad. Ver: Polanyi, Karl, The great transformation (Versus: New York, 2009).
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44 Eucken, Walter, Ordnugspolitik. LIT Verlag: Mnster, [1946]1999. p. 1. Traduccin del autor.
46 Schild, Axel y Siegfried, Detlef. Deutsche Kultur Geschichte. (Hanser Verlag: Mnchen, 2009). p. 28 29.
47 Eucken, Walter, Ordnugspolitik. p. 17.
48 Eucken, Walter, cit p. 17 ss.
49 Nolte, Paul, cit, p. 383.
I! Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
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| ast s 1 t | |sIa1 t 1 t | i t r t sIar a|t m ar .
|r| ar1 , m i r i sIrt 1 t t tt r t m i a 1 t k 1 t r aa t r
|a t ] t | ar ti ||t r 1 t k |t m ar i a |t 1 t ra| 1t1-
1tt 1 i t m a t sIras t|aras 1 t |a i r I|a t r ti a 1 t
| a t | t r t r sa t st ri It Wohlstand Fr Alle
| i t r t sIar j ara It 1 t s tt |t ta| a a| t r1 t r 1 t
| a t t t r t m i a 1 t t t m j t I t r t i a
Wettbewerbsordnung) tt m t t | Irt r t | a t
t | | sIa 1 t 1 t | i a a j |i t a r a |a s It r 1 t r t i a s
t ] t i sIas
!I
1 t |a t tt r t m i a.
|| 1 t sarrt ||t t tj t ri m t r Ia1 t j t r t | |sIa1 t
t r k | t m a r i a | t 1 t ra | t r | a i r m t 1 i a I a
j t sI] a t rra 1 a m a t sIra 1 t |a t | st rtati t r 1 t |
| i sIt ri a1 t r | ri Iar i tt t r !a 1 I, | a t 1 t sj a t s
1 t |as 1 t s | a t rras M a r 1 i a|t s |as tri si s
50 Eucken, Walter, cit p. 18.
51 Eucken, Walter, cit p. 18.
52 Nolte, Paul, cit. P. 294.
53 Nolte, Paul, cit. 301.
54 Nolte, Paul, cit. 298 ss.
55 Nolte, Paul, cit, 301.
56 Nolte, Paul, cit, p. 295.
57 Ver: Erhard, Ludwig, Wohlstand Fr Alle. (Ludwig-Erhard-Stiftung e.V: Bonn, 1964).
It Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
58 Judt, Tony, cit. p. 131-138.
t tt r t m i tas st tIt rt s st ti a|t s i m j t rIar It s
rt | a t ri a r t sj t ra | a r Ira r sIt rm a t i t r t s
t r1 t r a1 as a|t }a1 as 1 t |t s | ra stt s tam | i t s
j rt t tIt s st ti a|t s ra1 i ta|t s ti ti 1 t s t r |as
j ri m t ras 1 t ta1 as 1 t | si ] |t XX
!
.
Conclusin
|a t | ra t | j t r sam i t r It 1 t wa|It r |a t| t r
t sIa tt i r st rIa 1 t r Irt 1 t a r a Ira1 i ti t r 1 t |
j t r sa m i t r I t j t | i I i t t -t t t r t m i t t | a t
t r IaIi ta t | 1 t | t r 1 t | |sIa1 t tt m t tt r 1 a tIt r
1 t |t s j rt | |t m a s st t i a |t s | a t ] t r t ra |a
atIi ti 1 a1 t tt r t m i ta. | ara t | tast a|t m ar t |
tam t ra|i sm t 1 t |t s si ] |t s XV | | | X| X t tj rt sa
t sI t t r Ia si s t r | a rt sj t r si | a | i 1 a 1
t tt r t m i ta 1 t | |sIa1 t .
| sIa Ira 1 i t i t r st Ia r 1 a j a rIi t a |a rm t r It
1 t s1 t t | si ] | t X V | | | t t r | a st ri t 1 t
Irar It rm ati t r t s | a t j rt 1 a }t |a | t tt |a ti t r
| r 1 a sIri a| |a | t tt |a ti t r |rar tt sa.
| r t | si ] |t X| X, |t s j rt | |t m a s st t i a |t s
j t |i Ii tt s j rt 1 a ti 1 t s j t r |a Irar sIt rm ati t r
j t |i Ii tt -i r 1 a sIri a| 1 i t rt r j i t a a r tt r }a r It
1 t j rt j a t sIas 1 t j t |i Ii ta-t tt r t m i ta. |r Irt
t sIa s t | m a rt i sm t st j |a r It t t t m t a r a
a|It rr aIi ta 1 t Irar sIt rm ati t r It Ia| 1 t |as
t sIra tIa ras j t |i Ii tas t tt r t m i tas.
|| si ] |t XX 1 i t j ast a a r r a t tt i r It r It 1 t
rt st |a ti t r 1 t taratIt r ti t |t r It rati a|, t |
r ati t r a| st ti a|i sm t , | a t 1 t saIt |a t ] a r 1 a
| a t rra M a r 1 i a| tt r 1 a }t a |a rt j a a a r a
1 t |t s m as Ira] i tt s t j i st 1 i t s 1 t sa | i sIt ri a.
|r t sIt tt r It tIt 1 t rt tt |a ti t r t s ] a t rras,
t s | a t |a t | ra 1 t |a t| t r st j |ar It t tt m t
It rm a 1 t 1 t sa rrt | | t 1 t a r | sIa 1 t | a t
asa m i t r 1 t sa 1 t | t r t r |a t sIt ra t tt r t m i ta
rt sj t Iar 1 t a| i r 1 i ti 1 a t sa s i r It rt st s, r t
aIt r Iara tt r Ira |as |i | t rIa1 t s i r 1 i ti 1 a a|t s.
|| t r1 t r j rt j a t sIt j t r t | j t r sa1 t r a|t m ar
t ra t | 1 t |a t tt r t m i a 1 t tt m j t It r ti a.
|r t sIt t r1 t r j t |i Ii tt -t tt r t m i tt t | |sIa1 t
1 t | i a st r taj at 1 t rt ] a |ar |a t tt r t m i a |as
tri si s 1 t | taj i Ia|i sm t | a t a t }t s 1 t m a t| t s
1 t |t s tt r It m j t rar t t s | a| i ar tt r 1 a ti 1 t
a |as ] a t rras m a r 1 i a|t s, |a 1 i tIa1 a ra r ati
|a t tj ar si t r 1 t |a i r I|a t r ti a st ti t Ii ta.
|r t sIt m artt t | 1 r1 t |i | t ra|i sm t 1 t |a t| t r
j a t 1 t st r t i sIt t t m t t t j rt si t r 1 t a r
|i | t ra|i sm t ra1 i ta|, tri Ii tt a |as It r 1 t r ti as
m t r t j t | i t a s, | a t st | i ] t a |
t t r st rt a 1 a ri sm t st t i a | t a It |i t t a |t m a r ,
j rt t ta j a1 t 1 t | m ar It r i m i t r It 1 t | t r1 t r
st ti a|, 1 t |t s j ri r ti j i t s 1 t st |i 1 ari 1 a1
| i t r t sIar 1 t r Irt 1 t |a st ti t 1 a1 a|t m ar a | a t
st 1 t | i a rt tt r sIra i r 1 t sj a t s 1 t |a 1 i tIa1 a ra
|a ] a t rra It Ia|.
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t | a ss a r 1 j a IIt rr s t I i r t | a a | i Ii t s i r
1 i IIt rt r I Ij t s t I t |Iart sIaIt s . |r . Soc
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rt 1 i sI ri | a I i t r a r 1 I | t sI ra I t ] t I
t | a a | i I . t | Ia rt sI a I t i r sI i I a I i t r s,
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Investigaciones Sociolgicas. K a m t rt 11
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Sozialwissenschaften. | a sIa t |i st | t r.
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t | i |1 I, k tt | i t ] Iri t 1 , | . Deutsche
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M i r t| t r , I111
t | m i 1 I , M a r I rt 1 . t I a | . Der
Wohlfahrtsstaat. V V t r| a ] I i r
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t m i r , |t It r, t ti t I ar 1 K ati |tt r t m i t
| |ar r i r ] i r I| t 111s , t r The Economic
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I1 Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, 4(1): 29 - 46, Diciembre 2010
Resumen
|| t | }t Ii tt t s It sIt ar si t | m t rta1 t Ii r ar ti t rt
t| i |t r t rt tt ] t |as st 1 a|t s | a t t r Irt ] ar |t s
Ia r 1 am t r It s 1 t |ar] t j |att 1 t |a t tt r t m i a.
| ara t sIt , st a Ii |i tt |a Iasa 1 t trt ti m i t r It
1 t I t r 1 t r t i a -t i t | t 1 t | | M k | | | t t m t
rt It rt r t i a 1 t | t s I a r 1 a m t r I t s 1 t | a
t tt r t m i a, t r tt r }a r It tt r |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s
rt a| r t a Ira| t sIi m a1 a a Iratt s 1 t | m t 1 t |t
1 t j ari 1 a1 i r It rr ati t r a| 1 t Iasas 1 t i r It rt s
|t s rt It rr t s 1 t i r sIra m t r It s 1 t 1 t a 1 a
| i | rt 1 t ri t s] t 1 t | a r] t j | a t t t t m t
rt j rt st r Iar It s 1 t tari a| |t s 1 t | m t rta1 t
Ii r ar ti t rt .
| a ra |t ] ra r t sIt t | }t Ii t t , st a Ii |i t t a r a
j ra t | a 1 t tt i r It ] rati t r , |a ta a| j t rm i It
1 t It rm i r ar si t ti sIt a r a rt |ati t r 1 t |ar] t
j | a t t t r I rt | a I a sa 1 t t rt t i m i t r I t 1 t
It r 1 t r t i a , |a Ia sa 1 t i r It rt s rt a | r t a Ira |
| | K , t | rt It rr t 1 t |ar] t j |att 1 t |t s
i r sI ra m t r I t s 1 t 1 t a 1 a 1 t | m t rt a 1 t
Ii r ar ti t rt t r | | i |t .
t a r a | i t t | a rt | a t i t r 1 t | a r] t j | a t t
t | It r i 1 a t r t | j rt tt st 1 t tt i r Irt ] ati t r 1 t
|as tari a| |t s a Ii |i ta1 as. t t r Irt ] t t ti 1 t r ti a
st | rt |a j t rIi r t r ti a 1 t a Ii |i tar tari a| |t s 1 t
m t rt a 1 t j a ra t sI i m a r t a ri a | | t s
i r t | st rta| |t s tt m t |a | | K .
t | a stt 1 t m t sIrar | a t t r a r a t tt r t m i a
tt m t |a t| i |t r a, j t | a t 1 a a| i t rIa, t ti sIt
a r a rt |ati t r 1 t |ar] t j |att t r Irt |a asa 1 t
| rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a, |a asa 1 t | r It rt s
| t a| K t a Ira| |as Iasas 1 t rt It rr t s rt a|t s
1 t |t s atIi tt s Ii r ar ti t rt s 1 t |ar] t j |att .
Abstract
The aim is to test whether the Chilean
financial market collects signals that deliver
long-term fundamentals of the economy. For
this, we used the growth rate using IMACEC
as trend-cycle reference of the fundamentals
of the economy, together with the neutral
real interest rate (estimated by the model of
international parity interest rates) and returns
of debt-free long-term risk tools as
representatives of financial market variables.
To achieve this goal, we used a cointegration
test, which determines if there is a long term
relationship between the trend growth rate,
the neutral real interest rate (TIRN) and long-
term return of the Financial market debt tools
in Chile.
Gonzalo Espinosa G.
M a] i sIt r t r |i r ar tas. | r i tt rsi 1 a1 1 t | | i |t
Enzo Seplveda V.
Alexis Vega B.
Relacin de Lar Relacin de Lar Relacin de Lar Relacin de Lar Relacin de Largo Plazo entr go Plazo entr go Plazo entr go Plazo entr go Plazo entre el cr e el cr e el cr e el cr e el crecimiento de tendencia, la tasa de ecimiento de tendencia, la tasa de ecimiento de tendencia, la tasa de ecimiento de tendencia, la tasa de ecimiento de tendencia, la tasa de
inter inter inter inter inters r s r s r s r s real neutr eal neutr eal neutr eal neutr eal neutral y las tasas de inter al y las tasas de inter al y las tasas de inter al y las tasas de inter al y las tasas de inters en el mer s en el mer s en el mer s en el mer s en el mercado financier cado financier cado financier cado financier cado financiero oo oo
Long-term r Long-term r Long-term r Long-term r Long-term relationship betw elationship betw elationship betw elationship betw elationship between the gr een the gr een the gr een the gr een the gro oo oowth tr wth tr wth tr wth tr wth trend, the neutr end, the neutr end, the neutr end, the neutr end, the neutral r al r al r al r al real inter eal inter eal inter eal inter eal interes es es es est r t r t r t r t rate and inter ate and inter ate and inter ate and inter ate and interes es es es est tt tt
r rr rrates in the financial market ates in the financial market ates in the financial market ates in the financial market ates in the financial market
Gonzalo Espinosa, Enzo Seplveda y Alexis Vega
We analyzed the long-term relationship
obtained in the process of cointegration of
the variables used. It gave evidence on the
relevance of market variables used to
estimate unobserved variables as TIRN.

It sought to demonstrate that in an economy
like Chiles, small and open, there is a long
term relationship between the trend growth
rate, the neutral real interest rate and real rate
of return of long-term financial assets.
Keywords: neutral real interest rate, growth
rate of trend-cycle
JEL Classification: t\1, t!1 ar 1 t
1. Introduccin
| s i r 1 i st a Ii | |t | a t t r t | t t rIt j |a t t |a
j t |i Ii ta m t r t Iari a Ii t r t t It tIt s st | rt t |
trt ti m i t r It t tt r t m i tt , si r t m | ar] t , t sIt s
t It t It s st r Ira r si It ri t s r t a It t Ia r t |
trt ti m i t r It 1 t |ar] t j |att .
| | i r sIra m t r It t j t ra Ii tt 1 t |a s j t |i Ii t a s
m t r t Iari as | a t aj |i tar |a m at ri a 1 t |t s
j ai st s, t s |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s 1 t tt rIt j |att
| M , | a t st a1 t j Ia a Iratt s 1 t |a Ii }ati t r
1 t m t Ias i r I|ati t r ari as 1 t ta1 a j ai s.
|| j rt j t si It 1 t |t s tam | i t s t r |a | M , | a t
1 t It rm i r a |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s 1 t | m t rta1 t
i r It r| a r t a ri t , t s | a t t | t It t It 1 t t sIa s
m t 1 i Ii tati t r t s st Irar sm i Ia a| rt sIt 1 t |a
t t t r t m i a j t r m t 1 i t 1 t |a 1 t m a r 1 a 1 t
1 i r t rt , 1 t It rm a | a t t sIt s tam | i t s j a t 1 ar
i r I | a i r 1 t m a r t ra t t r si 1 t ra | | t t r | a s
1 t ti si t r t s 1 t tt r sa m t t i r tt rsi t r 1 t |t s
a ] t r I t s , 1 t t sI t m t 1 t , a I t t I a r
Irar si It ri am t r It t | trt ti m i t r It !.k rt| i | a|1
| 1 a r It r, I11 .
|as m t 1 i Ii tati t r t s st | rt |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s
1 t j t |i Ii ta m t r t Iari a | M rt sj t r 1 t r a
m t 1 t |t s | a t t sIa | |t t t r |a s rt ] |a s 1 t
j t | i I i t a m t r t I a ri a | | M , t t m t j t r
t }t m j |t |a rt ] |a 1 t a |t r 1 1 1 , |a t a a |
j t rm i It | a t |t s | ar tt s tt r Ira|t s j a t 1 ar
1 t ti 1 i r tt r ar It |ati t r |t s a}a sIt s r t tt sari t s
t r |a | M , tt r t | Ii r 1 t m ar It r t r t a|tar tar
ti t rIt r i tt | 1 t i r I|ati t r j ara a r j t ri t 1 t
1 t It rm i r a1 t . | t ata t r1 t a |a rt ] |a ar It ri t r,
|t s j ri r t i j a |t s a }a sIt s a |a | M sa r] t r
j rt 1 a tIt 1 t | rt t| as t r Irt |as t sIi m ati t r t s
1 t |a Iasa 1 t i r I|ati t r sa r i tt | t | }t Ii tt , asi
tt m t Iam | i t r 1 t j rt si t r t s 1 t 1 t m ar 1 a
| a t st m a r i I i t sI a r t r | a | rt t | a 1 t |
j rt 1 a tIt j rt t tIa1 t rt sj t tIt 1 t | producto
potencial 1 t |a t tt r t m i a.
| t m t st t | st rta, t ti sIt a r a rt |ati t r t r Irt
|a t |t tti t r 1 t |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s 1 t tt rIt
j |att t | j rt 1 a tIt j t It r ti a| a Ii |i ta1 t j t r
|a rt ] |a 1 t a|t r , | a t st 1 t It rm i r a a Iratt s
1 t tari a| |t s Ia r 1 am t r Ia|t s 1 t |a t tt r t m i a.
| t rt , | a a| t s |a rt |ati t r t r Irt |a tasa de
inters de largo plazo t | j rt 1 a t I t
j t It r ti a| 1 t |a t tt r t m i a!
| t r It 1 t , rt sa |Ia t|att t Irt tt r tt j It , t | 1 t
1 t Iasa 1 t i r It rt s r t a Ira|, | a t t s a| a t | r i tt |
1 t Iasa 1 t i r It rt s | a t r t j rt 1 a tt i m j atIt
r i j t si Ii tt r i r t ] aIi tt st | rt |a 1 t m ar 1 a
a] rt ] a1 a, | a t a1 t m as, j t rm i It m t 1 i r t |
] ra1 t 1 t t tj ar si t r | a t Ii t r t |a j t |i Ii ta
m t r t Iari a | r It rm t 1 t | t |i Ii ta M t r t Iari a,
M at I11I . |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s r t a Ira| j a t 1 t
1 t stt m j t r t rst , a| i ] a a| | a t ta a|| a i t r Iasa
1 t i r It rt s, t r |a tasa de inters real neutral
| | K |a i r I|ati t r t sj t ra1 a.
| t ata t r1 t a | a|1 t rt r | a||t ] t I11I , |as
Iasas 1 t i r It rt s rt a|t s t sIar 1 t It rm i r a1 as
j t r |t s Ia r 1 am t r It s 1 t |a t tt r t m i a t r t |
|a r] t j |a t t , |a j t |i Ii t a m t r t Ia ri a st |t
j a t 1 t aIt tIar|as t r t | tt rIt j |att . | t r |t
Iar It , sa r] t |a j rt ] a r Ia | t m t |a Iasa 1 t
i r It rt s 1 t j t |i Ii ta m t r t Iari a rt a| | M |
t sIari a ti r ta |a1 a tt r t | r i tt | 1 t t | a i |i | ri t
1 t |as Iasas rt a|t s 1 t |a t tt r t m i a! | t | i 1 t
a | a t t s }a sIam t r It |a 1 i It rt r ti a t r Irt |a
Relacin de Largo Plazo entre el crecimiento de tendencia, la tasa de inters real neutral y las tasas de inters en el mercado financiero
| | K | a | M | | t | a t 1 t I t rm i r a | t
t tj ar si tt 1 t |a j t |i Ii ta m t r t Iari a.
|r rt sa m t r a ] rt sst m t 1 t , |a | | K t |
j rt 1 a tIt j t It r ti a| t sIar 1 t It rm i r a1 t s j t r
|t s Ia r 1 am t r It s 1 t |a t tt r t m i a t r t | |ar] t
j | a t t , t sIi m a t i t r t s 1 t t sIa s t a ri a | | t s
tt r 1 a tt r |a j t |i Ii ta m t r t Iari a, Ii }ar 1 t |a
Iasa 1 t i r It rt s 1 t tt rIt j |att . | t r |t | a t st
j t 1 ri a t sj t rar | a t |as Iasas 1 t i r It rt s 1 t
m t rt a 1 t 1 t | a r] t j | a t t rt t t } a r | a
i r It rm ati t r i m j |i ti Ia t r |as Iasas 1 t tt rIt
j |att , 1 t It rm i r a1 as i r 1 i rt tIam t r It j t r |t s
Ia r 1 am t r It s t tt r t m i tt s t r t | |ar] t j |att ,
tt r a r st r Ii 1 t 1 t tt r tt r] t r ti a | ati a a r
trt ti m i t r It 1 t It r 1 t r ti a.
Crecimiento de Largo Plazo
|r |a |i It raIa ra r t t ti sIt a r a 1 t Ii r i ti t r t|ara
a r ar i m t st | rt |a Iasa 1 t trt ti m i t r It 1 t
|ar] t j |att
, trt ti m i t r It 1 t It r 1 t r ti a
I
, Iasa
1 t t rt t i m i t r I t j t I t r t i a |
1
, j a 1 i t r 1 t
t r tt r Irar 1 i It rt r ti as t r Irt t sIt s tt r tt j It s
t r |t s 1 i sIi r It s 1 t t a m t r It s a | t r1 a 1 t s.
| arIt 1 t |a aa st r ti a 1 t a r a tt r tt r ti t r st
t t j | i t a j t r j t rIt r t t t r a | t t r } a r It 1 t
tari a| |t s i r t | st rta| |t s t r |a t tt r t m i a, |t
| a t Ii t r Ia a t r Irt ] ar a r a 1 t Ii r i ti t r 1 i sIi r Ia
1 t j t r 1 i t r 1 t 1 t | m t 1 t |t 1 t t sIi m ati t r | a t
st a Ii |i tt .
| a ra i r t t sI i ] a r | a rt | a t i t r t r I rt t |
t rt t i m i t r It 1 t It r 1 t r t i a |a s Ia sa s 1 t
i r It rt s rt a | r t a Ira | | | K st t j It j t r t |
M t 1 t |t | ari 1 a1 | r It rr ati t r a| 1 t Iasas 1 t
i r It rt s j ara |as Iasas 1 t i r It rt s 1 t | si sIt m a
I i r a r t i t rt st a 1 t j I a rt r | a s j rt t i t s
Ira1 i ti t r a|t s.
Modelo Paridad Internacional de Tasas de
Inters
|| m t 1 t |t 1 t | ari 1 a1 | r It rr ati t r a| 1 t asas
1 t | r It rt s | | | t s rt j rt st r IaIi tt j ara |a
t sI i m a t i t r 1 t | a | | K t a ri a | | t r t
t | st rta| |t .
| | m t 1 t | t si m j | t t sI a | | t t t | a t t |
rt r 1 i m i t r It t sj t ra1 t 1 t |as i r tt rsi t r t s
Ii r ar ti t ras |t ta|t s i | t r t s 1 t |i | rt 1 t
ri t s] t t r | | i |t 1 t | t It r 1 t r a i ] a a|arst tt r
|as i r tt rsi t r t s t r t | t tIt ri t r i m t 1 i 1 t
j t r |t s | t r t s 1 t | t st rt r t rIt am t ri tar t a
a r j |att si m i |ar , t sIas a |Ii m as st a}a sIar
j t r |as tari ati t r t s t sj t ra1 as t r t | Ii j t 1 t
tam | i t r t m i r a| e . k si 1 t t sIa m ar t ra si r
tt r It m j |ar t | t It tIt 1 t j t si | |t tt | t rIa ras
t a m | i a ri a s t r t | m t 1 t | t | | | st j a t 1 t
1 t Ii r i r tt m t i i*+e.
| | m t 1 t | t a r It ri t r j t rm i It t t a | a a r 1 t
m ar t ra i r 1 i rt tIa |a rt |ati t r t r Irt tari a| |t s
Ia r 1 a m t r Ia |t s t a ri a | |t s 1 t | m t rt a 1 t
I i r a r t i t rt , t | } t I i t t 1 t | a j rt st r I t
i r tt sIi ] ati t r .
| a | 1 t rt r | a | | t ] t I 1 1 I I a t rt r | t s
j ri m t rt s t r t sIi m a r a r a | | K j a ra t |
m t rta1 t | | i |t r t | a}t 1 i It rt r It s m t It 1 t s,
1 En los textos tradicionales se define como la produccin de pleno empleo, es decir, el nivel de produccin alcanzado
bajo total flexibilidad de precios. Los modelos utilizados para la estimacin del producto potencial son aquellos
llamados estructurales, estos permiten definir un equilibrio libre de fricciones de acuerdo a la teora econmica y
definiendo una funcin de produccin. Una clase particular de mtodos estructurales son aquellos que utilizan
vectores autorregresivos (SVAR)
2 Este concepto puede ser una interpretacin alternativa del producto potencial, pero visto desde un enfoque que
separa el crecimiento cclico con el de tendencia. Entrando en detalle, toma relevancia la pregunta sobre s la serie de
tiempo del producto es estacionaria en tendencia o en diferencias. Los modelos utilizados bajo este enfoque son los
llamados semiestructurales o mtodos de filtros estadsticos
3 Este concepto est estrechamente ligado a la teora neoclsica de crecimiento, particularmente a la tasa de crecimiento
de estado estacionario proporcionado por los modelos de crecimiento de largo plazo de Solow-Swan
1I Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
t r Irt t ||t s, t sIi m art r a r a | | K a Iratt s 1 t
a r a | a ri 1 a 1 | r It rr a t i t r a | 1 t a sa s 1 t
| r It rt s, |a t a a | t sIa rt |a t i t r a 1 a t t r |a s
tt r 1 i ti t r t s 1 t t | a i |i | ri t 1 t a r a t tt r t m i a
j t | a t 1 a a| i t rIa tt m t |a t| i |t r a. | a}t t sIt
tri It ri t j |ar It art r |a | i j t It si s | a t |a Iasa
1 t i r I t rt s rt a | i r I t rr a t r t | t sI a 1 t
t sIati t r ari t 1 t | t ri a tt r tt r] t r a |a Iasa 1 t
i r It rt s 1 t j ari 1 a1 i r It rr ati t r a|. |ara j rt | ar
t sIt t r It | a t , |a | | K 1 t | t st r i ] a a| a |a Iasa
1 t i r It rt s rt a| t tIt rr a r a}a sIa1 a j t r |as
t t j t t Ia Ii t a s 1 t i r I|a t i t r rt a | | t , |t s
i m j a t sIt s a |t s I|a }t s 1 t taj i Ia|t s , |as
j ri m a s 1 t ri t s] t st | t ra r t ri t s] t
t a m | i a ri t . | t r | t t a a | It rm a | a rt r t |
si ] a i t r It m t 1 t |t .
TIRN= r | t +t +r +m
| r st ] a r 1 t t sIa 1 i t | a t a Ii |i tt t | m t 1 t |t
| | | t r t | m t rta1 t t| i |t r t , Ia t t | 1 t |a t r It s,
t I. a|, | a i t r t s i r tt rj t rart r t Iras tari a| |t s
1 i It rt r It s a |as ar It ri t rt s 1 t | a|1 t rt r t I.
a | . j a ra t sI i m a r | a | | K . | | | t s,
Ia r 1 am t r Ia|m t r It | asart r sa j rt t tti t r
a Ii |i tar 1 t a r a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s i r It rr ati t r a|
t t rrt ] i 1 a j t r | a I a sa 1 t 1 t j rt t i a t i t r
t sj t ra1 a |t s j rt m i t s j t r ri t s] t j ai s
ri t s] t tam | i ari t , It rm a |ar 1 t |a si ] a i t r It
t ta ati t r j ara 1 t It rm i r ar a r a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s
r t m i r a| j ara | | i |t i .
i = i* e r
s
r
e
| t r 1 t i* t s |a Ia sa 1 t i r It rt s r t m i r a |
i r It rr ati t r a|, t s |a Iasa 1 t 1 t j rt ti ati t r
t sj t ra1 a 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t r t m i r a|, r
s
t s
t | j rt m i t j t r ri t s] t st | t rar t r
e
t s t |
j rt m i t j t r ri t s] t 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t . |||t s
It m art r |t s ta|t rt s 1 t m t 1 i ar t j |att j ara
|t s tt m j t r t r It s 1 t |a t ta ati t r 1 t j ari 1 a1 ,
1 t ri tart r a r a t sIi m ati t r j ara |a Iasa 1 t
| r It rt s r t a Ira| r t m i r a| .
| ara i* It m art r |a | | K 1 t ||.| | . t sIi m a1 a
j t r t ||t s m i sm t s, | asar 1 t st t r t | m t It 1 t
1 t | a a | a t | wi ||i a m s I 1 1 1 , t t r 1 a It s
| asIa t | I11I j ara ||.| | ., |t rt sIart r |a
m t Ia 1 t i r I|a t i t r 1 t |a |t 1 . |a t ] t j a ra
t | It r t r |a 1 t j rt ti ati t r r t m i r a| t sj t ra1 a,
a Ii |i tart r |a 1 t Ii r i ti t r 1 t Ii j t 1 t tam | i t
rt a|.
= RER +(p - p*)
= RER +(p - p*)
4
| t r 1 t RER t s |a 1 t j rt ti ati t r t sj t ra1 a 1 t |
Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a| p - p*) tt rrt sj t r 1 t r
a | a s m t I a s 1 t i r I | a t i t r r a t i t r a | t
i r It rr ati t r a|, rt sj t tIi tam t r It . a j a si t rt r
| a t |a j rt 1 a tIi ti 1 a1 t r t | st tIt r Irar sa| |t
rt |aIi ta a| st tIt r r t Irar sa| |t trt ti a a a r
ri Im t si m i |ar t r | | i |t tt r rt sj t tIt a| rt sIt
1 t | m a r 1 t , j t r | t | a t a I i | i t a rt r a r a
aj rt ti ati t r 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a| t r Irt 1X
1 . ! X . | | 1 i It rt r t i a | t r Irt |a s m t Ia s 1 t
i r I|ati t r r ati t r a| t i r It rr ati t r a| st t sIi m t
t r a r 1 . ! X , t t r si 1 t ra r 1 t | a m t I a 1 t
i r I|a t i t r i r It rr a 1 t 1 X a r a m t Ia 1 t
i r I|ati t r 1 t ||.| | . 1 t I.!X . | ara t | j rt m i t
j t r ri t s] t j a i s, t t r si 1 t ra rt r a r | M | |
!
j rt m t 1 i t 1 t |ar] t j |att 1 t 11 j a r It s | ast
m asIm t r t s I1 j a r It s | ast . | ara t | j rt m i t
e
e
e
e
e
e
- -
4 p - p* En este caso representan lo implcito

5 EMBI son las siglas en ingls por ndice de Bonos de Mercados Emergentes, el cual es un ndice que registra el diferencial
entre el retorno de un bono del pas y un retorno de un bono libre de riesgo en EE.UU. calculado por JP Morgan.
- -
j t r ri t s] t tam | i ari t tt m t r t It r i ar r i r ] a r
ar It tt 1 t r It m t }t r, asa m i t rt r | a t 1 i t| t
ri t s] t t ra tt m j |t Iam t r It 1 i tt rsi Ii ta| |t 1
j | . t | rt |a | a st 1 t t sIt t r It | a t , st
t | Ia tt a r a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s r t m i r a| t r t |
rar ] t !. 1X -t. IX . |a t ] t tt r si 1 t rart r |a
m t Ia 1 t i r I|ati t r 1 t | | ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t
tt m t |a i r I|ati t r t sj t ra1 a, t | Ia ti t rt r
a r a | | K t r t | rar ] t I.1X 1.IX .
Tasa de Retorno del Mercado Financiero
|r t | m t rta1 t Ii r ar ti t rt t| i |t r t , t | | ar tt
| t r Ira | 1 t | | i |t | | | 1 |a t st rt ri a
| t r t ra| 1 t | t j a | |i ta | | m ar Ii t r t r a r a
t t r sIa r It t m i si t r 1 t i r sIra m t r It s 1 t
1 t a 1 a Iar It t r j t st s tt m t rt a}a sIa| |t s t r
| |, |t s i r sIra m t r It s rt a }a sIa | |t s t r | |
t | }t It 1 t ar a|i si s t r t sIa i r tt sIi ] ati t r
t ti sIt r t r a r a ] rar tari t 1 a1 1 t j |att s, t |
i r sIra m t r It m as |ar] t | | -11
t
tt rrt sj t r 1 t
a a r a m a1 a rt t 1 t 11 a1 t s tt r a r a 1 a rati t r
aj rt ti m a1 a 1 t 1,t a1 t s a| m t m t r It 1 t sa
j ri m t ra t m i si t r .
|r |a atIa a|i 1 a1 t | i r sIra m t r It | | -11 st ri a
tt r si 1 t ra1 t tt m t 1 t rt It rt r ti a j ara a r a
Iasa 1 t i r It rt s |i | rt 1 t ri t s] t 1 t |ar] t j |att ,
si r t m | a r] t , t sI a s t m i si t r t s st | t
tt m t r tart r t r M artt 1 t | a1 t I11. k r It s
1 t t sa |t t| a 1 t s1 t t j Ii t m | rt I11I t |
i r sIra m t r It 1 t rt It rt r ti a j ara a r a Iasa 1 t
i r It rt s 1 t |ar] t j |att t ra t | | | -I1
I
1 t I1
a1 t s j |att tt r a r a 1 a rati t r aj rt ti m a1 a
1 t \, t a1 t s. | a| t r t Iar, | a t a j t sar 1 t
t ti sIi r i r sIra m t r It s tt r 1 a rati t r sa j t ri t r
a 1 a1 t s, sa |i | a i 1 t t j rt Ia r 1 i 1 a1 t r t |
m t rta1 t |t ta| r t t s sa Ii ti t r It j ara It r t r
tt Ii tati t r t s 1 i ari as 1 t |t s i r sIra m t r It s.
k r It s 1 t t j Ii t m | rt I11I |t s i r sIra m t r It s
1 t m at r j |att t rar |t s | | | - 1
| | | -I1
1
am | t s tt r a r a 1 a rati t r aj rt ti m a1 a 1 t ,t
a 1 t s a r a m a 1 a rt t 1 t 1 I 1 a 1 t s
rt sj t tIi tam t r It .
|sIt s a |Ii m t s i r sIra m t r It s, a j t sar 1 t It r t r
a r a t sI ra t I a ra 1 t j a ] t 1 t t a j t r t s
1 i It rt r It , st r tt r si 1 t ra1 t s t | a i ta|t r It s
1 t | i 1 t a sa si m i |ar 1 a rati t r , t sIt j t rm i It
| a t | a s t t I i t a t i t r t s t r t | m t rt a 1 t
Ii r ar ti t rt 1 t t sIt s i r sIra m t r It s st a] ra j t r
t r a r Benchmark ||a m a 1 t | |- 1 | a t st
a Ii |i ta tt m t rt It rt r ti a| 1 t tt Ii tati t r 1 t
i r sIra m t r It s t r | | a 1 a1 t s. |t s ta a|t s,
1 t | i 1 t a sa |i | a i 1 t t 1 i sj t r i | i |i 1 a1 t r
It 1 t t | j t ri t 1 t 1 t ar a|i si s, st r |t s a Ii |i ta1 t s
tt m t rt It rt r ti a 1 t Iasas 1 t i r It rt s |i | rt 1 t
ri t s] t 1 t | a r] t j | a t t t r t | m t rt a 1 t
Ii r ar ti t rt .
Anlisis de Cointegracin
| r It rm i r t s t t t r t m i t t s, 1 t s t a ri a | |t s
st rar tt i r It ] ra1 as si t ti sIt a r a rt |ati t r 1 t
|ar] t j |att , t 1 t t | a i |i | ri t t r Irt am | as. |r
t a a || a i t r m t m t r It 1 t | Ii t m j t j a t 1 t r
t ti sIi r 1 t sti ati t r t s rt sj t tIt 1 t | ta|t r 1 t
t | a i | i | ri t , j t rt t sI a s 1 i I t rt r t i a s st r
I ra r si I t ri a s, t s 1 t t i r, t t i sI t r I a t rt a s
t tt r t m i tas | a t t m j a }ar t sIas tari a| |t s
| ati a sa rt |ati t r 1 t t | a i |i | ri t wt t |1 ri 1 ] t ,
I11 .
| | Ira | a }t t m j i ri t t | a sa 1 t t r st ri t s 1 t
Ii t m j t sa j t r t | a t |a st ri t t r ta t sIi t r t s
t sIati t r ari a. |r rt sa m t r , si a r a st ri t 1 t
Ii t m j t t s t sIati t r ari a, sa m t 1 i a, sa tari ar ta
sa a a It t t t a ri a r t a t r | t s 1 i It rt r It s
rt ta] t s j t rm ar t tt r i ] a a|t s si r i m j t rIar
t r t | m t m t r It t r | a t st m i 1 ar , t s 1 t ti r,
6 Bono de la Tesorera General de la Repblica en UF.
7 Bono de la Tesorera General de Repblica en UF
8 Bono del Banco Central en UF
9 Pagar Reajustable en UF del Banco Central
1\ Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
st r i r t a ri a r It s t r t | Ii t m j t | a a }a ra Ii ,
I11\ . a| st ri t It r 1 t ra a rt ] rt sar a sa m t 1 i a
| | a m a 1 a rt t t rsi t r a | a m t 1 i a | a s
I| a t Ia a t i t r t s a | rt 1 t 1 t r 1 t t sIa m t 1 i a
m t 1 i 1 a j t r sa t a ri a r t a I t r 1 ra r a r a
am j |i Ia 1 tt r sIar It m a am j |i a.
| r ] t r t ra |, si a r a st ri t 1 t Ii t m j t r t
t sIati t r ari a 1 t | t 1 i It rt r ti arst d tt tt s j ara
| a t t r| a t sI a t i t r a ri a , st 1 i t t | a t t s
i r It ] ra1 a 1 t t r1 t r d. | r a st ri t 1 t Ii t m j t
Y
(t)
i r It ] ra1 a 1 t t r1 t r d st 1 t r t Ia tt m t
Y
(t)
~I(d). i a r a st ri t 1 t I i t m j t t s
t sIati t r ari a 1 t s1 t t | j ri r ti j i t t s 1 t ti r, r t
rt | a i t rt r i r ] a r a 1 i It rt r ti ati t r , st 1 i tt
| a t t s i r It ] ra1 a 1 t t r1 t r tt rt st 1 t r t Ia
m t 1 i ar It Y
(t)
~ I(0). | t r Iar It , |t s It rm i r t s
st ri t 1 t Ii t m j t t sIati t r ari a st ri t 1 t
Ii t m j t i r It ] ra 1 a 1 t t r1 t r t t rt , 1 a r a
t r It r 1 t r |a m i sm a i 1 t a | a }araIi , I11\ .
| t s1 t t | j a r It 1 t ti sIa 1 t |a t tt r t m t Iri a
1 t s t m a s st ri t s 1 t Ii t m j t | a t st r r t
t sI a t i t r a ri a s 1 t t r1 t r I(1) t sI a r
t t i r It ] ra 1 a s si t t i sIt a r a t t m | i r a t i t r
|i r t a| 1 t t sas st ri t s | a t st a t sIati t r ari a t
1 t t r1 t r I(0).
k a r | a t t | i r It rt s st tt r Ira t r |as st ri t s 1 t
Ii t m j t t sIati t r ari as, a m t r a 1 t aj art tt r
|as st ri t s 1 t Ii t m j t r t t sIati t r ari as, si t r 1 t
t | t|asi tt t }t m j |t t | m t 1 t |t 1 t tam i r aIa
a|t aIt ri a M | k . |a rt ] rt si t r 1 t a r a st ri t
1 t Ii t m j t r t t sIati t r ari a st | rt t Ira r t
t sIa t i t r a ri a j t 1 ri a t a a sa r a r a rt |a t i t r
t sj a ri a . | r t t t r t m t I ri a st a I i | i t a | a
1 t r t m i r ati t r 1 t rt ] rt si t r t sj a ri a j ara t |
tast t r t | | a t |a rt |ati t r | a t t r tt r Iram t s
t r Irt 1 t s t m as tari a| |t s tt r It r 1 t r ti a,
si m j |t m t r It st 1 t | a a | a t ta1 a a r a 1 t t ||as
t sIa trt ti t r 1 t t r t | Ii t m j t wt t |1 ri 1 ] t ,
I11 .
| t m t | rar ] t r t | st rta. | r a j ra t | a j ara
|a tt i r It ] rati t r j a t 1 t tt r si 1 t rarst tt m t
a r a j rt -j ra t | a j ara t ti Iar |as si Ia ati t r t s
1 t rt ] rt si t r t s t sj a ri a s .
1
| sIt a a It r
j rt j t r t a r t r I t | a t

j a ra j rt | a r | a
t t i r I t ] ra t i t r t r I rt t a ri a | | t s, t | t a a |
j rt st r Ia |as si ] a i t r It s taratIt ri sIi tas.
Enfoque de Engle-Granger (1987)
12
k j |i t a | |t a m t 1 t |t s a r i t t a a t i t r a |t s
tt r 1 t s t m as tari a| |t s
M t It 1 t t r 1 t s t Ia j a s | a sa 1 t t r |t s
rt si 1 a t s t sIi m a1 t s.
k sa m t a j ri t ri | a t t ti sIt a r st |t tt tIt r
1 t tt i r It ] rati t r t r t | m t 1 t |t .
| | rt sa | I a 1 t 1 t t sI t m t I t 1 t 1 t
t t i r I t ] ra t i t r j a t 1 t t a m | i a r
1 t j t r 1 i t r 1 t 1 t t a a | t a ri a | | t st
st |t tti t r t tt m t 1 t j t r 1 i t r It .
| | m t It 1 t 1 t | r ] |t -| ra r ] t r t t r si sIt t r
rt a|i tar |a j ra t | a 1 t rai t a r i Iari a | i t| t -
|a | | t r | | t | i t | t -|a | | t r k a m t r Ia 1 a
| |k
1
st | rt |t s rt si 1 a t s t sIi m a1 t s a j arIi r
1 t |a rt ] rt si t r tt i r It ] rar It . i |t s rt si 1 a t s
1 t | a rt ] rt si t r st r | 1 , t s 1 t t i r, st r
t sIa t i t r a ri t s, |a rt ] rt si t r a r a |i t a 1 a t s
tt i r It ] rar It r t t sj a ri a, aa r ta ar 1 t |as
1 t s t a ri a | | t s, t r | t i r 1 i t i 1 a a | , st r r t
t sIati t r ari as | a a}araIi , I11\ .
10 C.W.J. Granger, Developments in the Study of Co-Integrated Economic Variables, en Oxford Bulletin of Economics
and Statistics, vol. 48, 1986, pgina 226.
11 HL Mata, Manual de trabajo Nociones Elementales de Cointegracin Procedimiento de Engel-Granger,2004 pgina
6.
12 Otra prueba de cointegracin, pero que requiere una gran cantidad de datos, corresponde al enfoque de Soren
Johansen, este consiste en colocar en un vector autoregresivo las series que presenten races unitarias, a partir del
cual se puede probar la existencia de una o ms combinaciones lineales J(U) o vectores de cointegracin, como
tambin se les denomina.
13 Ver Anexo N 2.
1! Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
Mecanismo de Correccin de Errores
| r a tt t | a t sa | t m t s | a t 1 t s t a ri a | |t s
Ii t r t r |a j rt j i t 1 a 1 1 t |a t t i r It ] ra t i t r ,
j a t 1 t tt r si 1 t rarst | a t | ar si 1 t ] t r t ra1 as
j t r |t | a t t s tt r t ti 1 t tt m t a r m t 1 t |t
1 t t t rrt t t i t r 1 t | t rrt r , t r | a t | a s
tari ati t r t s 1 t a r a 1 t |as st ri t s st t tj |i tar
t r Ia r ti t r 1 t |t s rt Iar1 t s 1 t |a 1 i It rt r ti a
t r Irt |as st ri t s j t si | |t m t r It Iras a r a}a sIt
1 t t sta|a |t s rt Iar1 t s 1 t |as 1 i It rt r ti a 1 t
ta1 a st ri t | rar ] t r I111 .
k | ta|i 1 ar a r a rt |ati t r 1 t t | a i |i | ri t 1 t |ar] t
j |att , t sIt r t i m j |i ta | a t t r t | tt rIt j |att
r t j a t 1 a r t t i sI i r 1 t st | a i | i | ri t s. | r
tt r st ta t r ti a, st j a t 1 t IraIar t | It rm i r t 1 t
t rrt r t t m t t | t rrt r 1 t t | a i |i | ri t . Y st
j a t 1 t a Ii |i tar t sIt It rm i r t 1 t t rrt r j ara aIar
t | t t m j t rIa m i t r It 1 t t t rIt j |a tt 1 t |a
t a ri a | |t t t j |i t a 1 a t t r sa t a |t r 1 t |a r] t
j | a t t . | | m t t a r i sm t 1 t t t rrt t t i t r 1 t
t rrt rt s || M a Ii |i ta1 t j t r j ri m t ra tt t j t r
ar] ar j t j a |ari ta1 t m as Iar1 t j t r |r ] |t
| rar ] t r, tt rri ] t t | 1 t st | a i |i | ri t .
| t m j t rIam i t r It 1 t | t rIt | |att .
U
t
= y
1
- a
0
- a
1
x
t
| t m j t rIam i t r It 1 t |ar] t | |att .
y
t
= a
0
+ a
1
x
t
+e
t
|| m t tar i sm t m as si m j |t 1 t | t rrt tti t r 1 t
|rrt rt s t s.
D y
t
= a
0
+ a
1
Dx
t
+ a
2
U
t-1
+e
t
| t r 1 t .
D . | t r t Ia |a j ri m t ra 1 i It rt r t i a 1 t |a s
tari a| |t s t t , rt sj t tIi tam t r It .
U
t-1
: |s t | m t tar i sm t 1 t tt rrt tti t r 1 t | t rrt r.
t a sa j ara tt rrt ] i r t | 1 t st | a i |i | ri t a tt rIt
j |att .
a
2
: |s t | j aram t Irt 1 t a}a sIt a tt rIt j |att .
|a si ] r i Ii tati t r t sIa1 i sIi ta 1 t a
2
i r 1 i ta |a
j rt j t rti t r 1 t | 1 t st | a i |i | ri t t r , | a t t s
tt rrt ] i 1 t t r t | si ] a i t r It j t ri t 1 t . M i t r Iras
m as att rta t sIt a
2
1 t , m as raj i 1 t st ra t |
a}a sIt | ati a t | t | a i |i | ri t .
| a1 t | a t |as st ri t s t t t sIar tt i r It ] ra1 as,
t sI t i m j | i t a | a t | a a r a rt | a t i t r 1 t
t | a i |i | ri t a |a r] t j |a t t t r Irt t ||a s, r t
t | sIar It , t r t | tt rIt j |att j a t 1 t | a| t r
1 t st | a i |i | ri t . | | It rm i r t t rrt r U
t
t r |a
rt ] rt si t r 1 t t t i r It ] ra t i t r st i r It rj rt Ia
t t m t t | t rrt r 1 t t | a i | i | ri t t s t sIt ,
j rt t i sa m t r It , t | | a t si rt t j a ra a Ia r | a
t t r 1 a t Ia 1 t t t rIt j |a t t 1 t |a t a ri a | |t
t tj |i ta1 a tt r sa ta|t r 1 t |ar] t j |att .
2. Metodologa
| a s t a ri a | |t s | a t t t i r It ] ra r m a r Ii t r t r
a|] a r as j rt j i t 1 a1 t s j t It r ti a|m t r It a Ii |t s
j a ra a r a | i t a r I t t ri a s | a sa 1 a s t r t |
t | a i | i | ri t t t t r t m i t t , t t m t | a
m ar It r ti t r 1 t a r raIi t tt r sIar It t r Irt |as
j rt 1 i t t i t r t s 1 t 1 t s st ri t s | a t t sI a r
t t i r It ] ra 1 a s. | s a si , | a t st t r t a t r Ira r
Ira| a}t s 1 t r 1 t st ar a|i ta |a tt i r It ] rati t r
t r Irt t | trt ti m i t r It 1 t |ar] t j |att 1 t | | | |
|a | a|ar ta 1 t | a] t s j ara M t ti tt |t ri a,
t rrt s | arti a-| am t s I111 , t r tt r Irar 1 t
a r a rt |ati t r 1 t |ar] t j |att . | t r t Irt |a1 t ,
a r t sIa 1 i t 1 t |a rt |ati t r 1 t tt i r It ] rati t r
1 t |a | a ri 1 a 1 | t st a | i t rIa 1 t |a a sa 1 t
| r It rt s t r Irt |a t t t r t m i a | t |t m | i a r a
|sIa1 t a r i 1 t r st arrt }a | a t |as tari a| |t s r t
t sIar tt i r It ] ra1 as | am i rt t, I11I .
| t r t | t | }t It 1 t rt sj t r 1 t r |a | i j t It si s
j |a r It a 1 a t r t sIt Ira | a }t , rt It ri 1 a a |a
t ti sIt r ti a 1 t a r a rt |ati t r 1 t |ar] t j |att
t r Irt t | | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a, |a asa
1 t | r It rt s | t a| K t a Ira| |as asas 1 t | t It rr t
1 t |t s i r sIra m t r It s 1 t 1 t a 1 a |i | rt 1 t ri t s] t
1 t | m t rta1 t t| i |t r t , st rt a|i tt a r ar a|i si s
1 t | t i r I t ] ra t i t r j a ra I rt s rt | a t i t r t s
Ia r ti t r a|t s 1 t |ar] t j |att .
1t Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010

| ri m t rt , |a rt |ati t r 1 t |ar] t j |att t r Irt |a
Iasa 1 t | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a, |a asa
1 t | r It rt s | t a| K t a Ira|. t ] a r 1 t , |a rt |ati t r
1 t |ar] t j |att t r Irt |a Iasa 1 t | rt ti m i t r It
1 t t r 1 t r t i a |a s a sa s 1 t | r It rt s 1 t |
M t rt a 1 t |i r a r t i t rt t | i |t r t . t rt t rt , |a
rt |a t i t r 1 t |a r] t j |a tt t r Irt |a a sa 1 t
| r It rt s | t a| K t a Ira| |as asas 1 t | r It rt s
1 t | M t rta1 t |i r ar ti t rt t| i |t r t .
| ara t sIi m ar ta1 a a r a 1 t |as Irt s tari a| |t s
t r t sI a 1 i t st t t r sI ra t rt r st ri t s 1 t
Ii t m j t . |a t ] t 1 t tt r Iar tt r |as Irt s st ri t s
st j rt t t 1 i t a rt a | i t a r t | a r a | i si s 1 t
| t i r It ] rati t r , 1 t ata t r1 t a |r ] |t -| rar ] t r
st j rt tt 1 t tt r |t s si ] a i t r It s j ast s.
| t It rm i r ar t r1 t r 1 t i r It ] rati t r 1 t ta1 a
a r a 1 t | a s st ri t s t st t ] i 1 a s, It sIt a r | a
taa sa|i 1 a1 t r Irt |as st ri t s st |t tti t r a1 as,
t sj t ti Ii tar t sIi m ar |a rt |ati t r Ia r ti t r a| 1 t
| a r] t j | a t t , t t r I ra sI a r si | t s rt si 1 a t s
t sIi m a 1 t s Ii t r t r ra i t a r i Ia ri a , t sIi m a r
M t 1 t | t 1 t | t rrt t t i t r 1 t | rrt rt s si
tari a| |t s tt i r It ] rar .
| t | i 1 t a| a|tar tt 1 t t sIa i r tt sIi ] ati t r , |a
t sj t ti Ii tati t r t sIi m ati t r 1 t |a rt |ati t r 1 t
|ar] t j |att st |t st rt a|i tt t r t | tt r It tIt 1 t
a r m t 1 t |t 1 t rt ] rt si t r |i r t a| si m j |t a r a
tari a| |t i r 1 t j t r 1 i t r It tt r tt r sIar It . ||
m t 1 t |t 1 t tt rrt tti t r 1 t t rrt rt s | a t st
1 t sj rt r 1 t 1 t a r a |i si s 1 t t t i r It ] ra t i t r
Iam | i t r st t It tIa a | a}t t | tt r It tIt 1 t a r a
rt ] rt si t r |i r t a|.
2.1 Periodo de la Muestra y Seleccin de
Series de Tiempo
| r t t r si 1 t ra t i t r 1 t |a 1 i sj t r i | i |i 1 a 1
r t tt si 1 a1 1 t a r Iam a1 t m a t sIra| att j Ia| |t ,
|as st ri t s a Ii |i ta1 as tt rrt sj t r 1 t r a 1 aIt s
m t r sa a | t s t r Irt | r t rt 1 t | a 1 t I 1 1 1
| i t i t m | rt 1 t | a 1 t I 1 1 1 , t r I t I a | I 1
t | st rtati t r t s.
| ara t | | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a st a Ii |i tt
|a Iasa 1 t trt ti m i t r It m t r sa a| 1 t |a st ri t
j a | |i ta1 a t r t | | ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t | a}t
|a ] |t sa | M k| || t r 1 t r ti a- | i t|t , 1 t | i 1 t
a |a j t ri t 1 i t i 1 a 1 1 t |t s 1 a It s j t r| a t
a1 t m as ta m j |t tt r t r Irt ] ar tri It ri t s 1 t
trt ti m i t r It | a t ta m j |t r tt r t | j rt j t si It
1 t |a j rt st r It i r tt sIi ] a t i t r , Ia |t s t t m t
It r 1 t r ti a 1 t |ar] t j |att tt r si 1 t rati t r 1 t
|t s ti t|t s 1 t att |t rati t r 1 t satt |t rati t r t r
| a t st t r ta t r Ira |a t tt r t m i a 1 t tIt r Va||t ,
| ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | a aIt m a|a
\
. |sIas st 1 a|t s
1 t sj rt ti sIa 1 t ra i 1 t s. t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 , 1 i as
|a| t ra|t s, tt m j t r t r It i rrt ] a |ar st r |t s
I a r 1 a m t r I t s | a t 1 t | i t st r a It t I a r | a
Irat tIt ri a 1 t |as Iasas 1 t rt It rr t 1 t |t s
i r sIra m t r It s 1 t 1 t a 1 a 1 t | a r] t j | a t t
Irar sa1 t s t r t | m t rta1 t Ii r ar ti t rt t| i |t r t .
|t s ta|t rt s 1 t t sIa st ri t st r j a | |i ta1 t s t r
It rm a m t r sa a| j t r t | | ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t
t r sa j a] i r a t |
!
.
| ara t sIi m ar |a tari a| |t | | K st a Ii |i tt t |
m t 1 t |t 1 t j ari 1 a1 1 t Iasas 1 t i r It rt s t r
a r a t tt r t m i a a| i t rIa 1 t ata t r1 t a |a t r It s,
t I. a|. |a t sIi m ati t r st rt a|i tt a Ii |i tar 1 t t |
j rt m t 1 i t m t r sa a| 1 t It 1 as |as tari a| |t s
i r tt |a tra1 as t r |a si ] a i t r It t tj rt si t r .
i = i* e r
s
r
e
| t r 1 t i* t s |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s r t m i r a| i r It r-
r a t i t r a | , e t s | a Ia sa 1 t 1 t j rt t i a t i t r
t sj t ra1 a 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t r t m i r a|, r
s
t s
t | j rt m i t j t r ri t s] t st | t rar t r
e
t s t |
j rt m i t j t r ri t s] t 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t .
14 http://www.banguat.gob.gt/inveco/notas/articulos/envolver.asp?karchivo=1801&kdisc=si
15 www.bcentral.cl
e
1I Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
k 1 i It rt r ti a 1 t | t sIa 1 i t m t r ti t r a1 t tt r
t | t | } t I t 1 t t t a | a a r | a i r I t rm a t i t r
tt r It r i 1 a t r |t s m t rta1 t s Ii r ar ti t rt s, st
a Ii |i tt j ara i* |a Iasa 1 t rt It rr t 1 t |t s | t r t s
1 t | t st rt K t rIt am t ri tar t rt asa r 1 .
|a t ] t j ara t | It r t r |a 1 t j rt ti ati t r r t m i r a|
t sj t ra1 a, st a Ii |i tt |a 1 t Ii r i ti t r 1 t Ii j t 1 t
tam | i t rt a|.
e = RER + (p -p*), e = RER + (p -p*),
| t r 1 t RER t s |a 1 t j rt ti ati t r t sj t ra1 a 1 t |
Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a| p p tt rrt sj t r 1 t r a
|a i r I|ati t r i m j |i ti Ia t r |t s i r sIra m t r It s 1 t
1 t a 1 a 1 t | | i |t | k rt sj t tIi tam t r It .
| t | i 1 t a |a aa st r ti a 1 t 1 aIt s a r i It rm t s
j a ra t sIi m a r |a i r I|a t i t r i m j |i t i Ia t r t |
m t rt a 1 t t | i | t r t , t sI a I a t t a | t a | a 1 a a
1 i sIi r It s j |a tt s. | sIa a a st r t i a 1 t 1 a It s
ra1 i ta t r | a t 1 a rar It t | j t ri t 1 t 1 t ar a|i si s
r t st tt r Ia| a tt r a r a tari t 1 a1 si ] r i Ii taIi ta
1 t i r sIra m t r It s r t m i r a|t s, |a ] rar m at ri a
1 t 1 t a 1 a t ra t tj rt sa1 a t r | |, j t r |t Iar It ,
r t t ra j t si | |t ta|ta |ar i r I|ati t r i m j |i ti Ia t r
j |a t t s 1 t r 1 t r t t t i sIi a r i r sIra m t r It s
r t m i r a |t s 1 t a t a t r1 t a |a t t a a t i t r 1 t
|i st| t r |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s r t m i r a| t s i ] a a| a
| a I a sa 1 t i r I t rt s rt a | m a s | a I a sa 1 t
i r I|ati t r . i r t m | ar] t , t | tri It ri t Ia t |a
a Ii |i t a t i t r 1 t i r sIra m t r It s r t m i r a |t s a
m at r j |att 1 i sj t r i | |t j ara t | ta|ta |t 1 t |a
i r I|ati t r i m j |i ti Ia, || j t ri t 1 t 1 t t sIa 1 i t
j a t 1 t st r 1 i ti 1 i 1 t t r Irt s 1 t ata t r1 t a |a
1 i sj t r i | i |i 1 a1 1 t i r sIra m t r It s r t m i r a|t s
| ara t | j t ri t 1 t t r Irt t r t rt 1 t | a1 t I111
| asIa m artt 1 t | a1 t I11I st |t st tt r Ia| a
tt r i r sIra m t r It s r t m i r a|t s | | | | | asIa
a r a 1 t j | a t t , j t r | t | a t st t | Ia t t | a
i r I | a t i t r i m j | i t i I a 1 t a r a 1 t st ri t
1 i sj t r i | |t t r t | | | | 1 . | a ra t | j t ri t 1 t
1 t s1 t a| ri | 1 t | a1 t I11I | asIa m artt 1 t | a1 t
I 1 1 \ st t | Ia t t |a i r I|a t i t r i m j |i t i Ia 1 t
i r sIra m t r It s 1 t 1 a rati t r tt rtar a a ! a1 t s
1 aIt s 1 i sj t r i | |t s t r t | | | | 1 1 t s1 t a| ri |
1 t | a1 t I11\ | asIa m artt 1 t | a1 t I111 st
t | Ia tt |a i r I|ati t r i m j |i ti Ia 1 t i r sIra m t r It s
1 t 1 a rati t r tt rtar a a 1 a1 t s | aIt s 1 i ari t s
1 i sj t r i | |t s t r |as Irar satti t r t s 1 t |a | t |sa
1 t | t m t rti t 1 t ar Ii a] t . | ara t | tast 1 t
| k |a i r I|a t i t r i m j |i t i Ia st t | Ia tt 1 t |
t st rt K t m i r a| t | r 1 t ta1 t a 1 a1 t s | aIt s
t | It r i 1 t s 1 t | |t t m | t r] . k 1 i It rt r ti a 1 t
|a t r It s, t I a|. | t r 1 t RER Ia t asa m i 1 t t r Irt
1 1,!X , t r t sIa i r tt sIi ] ati t r |t s ta|ta |t s
st rt a|i tart r tt r a r 1X , j t rt Iati |m t r It
rt t m j |ata| |t s j t r 1,!X t r t | rar ] t Ii r a|,
st |t st 1 t | t sa m ar 1,!X a| rt sa |Ia1 t .
| a ra r
s
st a I i | i t t t | | M | | j a ra | | i | t
1 i sj t r i | |t t r t | | | | 1 , st ri t 1 i sj t r i | |t
m t r sa a |m t r It . Y j a ra r
e
, a | i ] a a | | a t
|a t r It s t I. k |. t tt r si 1 t rt 1 i tt rsi Ii ta| |t t
i ] a a| a 1.
| t r It 1 t s |t s 1 aIt s st t | Ia tt a r a Iasa 1 t
i r I t rt s i r I t rr a K t m i r a | t r j t ri t 1 t
m t r sa a|, | a t a| i ] a a| | a t |a t r It s t I. a|. st
1 t sta t r Ia |a i r I|ati t r t | }t Ii tt 1 t | | | | 1
1 X t t m t | a i r I | a t i t r t sj t ra 1 a j a ra
t | It r t r Ii r a|m t r It |a | | K .
| a ra |a Ia sa 1 t i r It rt s 1 t |a r] t j |a t t st
a Ii |i tt |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s 1 i ari a 1 t | | | | - 1,
|a t ] t st ta|ta |a t | j rt m t 1 i t m t r sa a|, t |
tri It ri t Ia t |a |i | a i 1 t t j rt Ia r 1 i 1 a1 1 t t sIt
i r sIra m t r It a |t |ar] t 1 t It 1 t t | j t ri t 1 t
1 t t sIa 1 i t .
3. Resultados
|r t sIt aj arIa1 t st j rt st r Iar |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s
t | I t r i 1 t s a j a rI i r 1 t | a m t I t 1 t | t ] i a
j |ar It a1 a t r t | taj i Ia |t ar It ri t r. |r j ri m t r
|a ] ar st ar a|i tt t | t r1 t r 1 t i r It ] rati t r 1 t
t a 1 a a r a 1 t |a s st ri t s st |t t t i t r a 1 a s, t r
st ] a r 1 t |a ] ar st It sIt t |a taa sa|i 1 a1 t r Irt
|as tari a| |t s, j t sIt ri t rm t r It st t sj t ti Ii tt
t sIi m t |a rt |ati t r Ia r ti t r a| a |ar] t j |att
j ara ta1 a j ar 1 t tari a| |t s | a}t t | tt r It tIt
- -

1 t a r m t 1 t |t 1 t rt ] rt si t r |i r t a| M | |
st t tam i r t |a | t i r It ] rati t r 1 t |t s rt si 1 a t s
t sI i m a 1 t s a j a rI i r 1 t | a s rt | a t i t r t s
Ia r t i t r a |t s t sj t t i Ii t a 1 a s. | t r a |Ii m t , st
j rt st r Ia t | rt sa |Ia 1 t t r Irt ] a 1 t j t r t |
M t tar i sm t 1 t | t rrt tti t r 1 t |rrt rt s.
t 1 t s |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s j rt st r Ia1 t s t r t sIa
i r tt sIi ] ati t r Ia t rt r t | It r i 1 t s a j arIi r 1 t
|a a j |i t a t i t r 1 t | t II a rt | t t r t m t Iri t t
|ti t s.
Orden de Integracin de las Series
16
|r t | ta a1 rt K st j rt st r Ia a r rt sa m t r
1 t |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s t | It r i 1 t s 1 t |a j ra t | a 1 t
| i t| t -|a ||t r k a m t r Ia1 a a ta1 a a r a 1 t |as
st ri t s. |r t | ta a1 rt K , st ar a|i tt t r j ri m t r
|a ] ar |as tari a| |t s t r r i tt |, t | It r i t r 1 t | a t
j ara It 1 as |as st ri t s t | t sIa1 i sIi tt k | | t s
m at r m t r t s r t ] aIi tt | a t t | ta|t r tri Ii tt
1 t M t| i r r t r a| X , !X 1X , j t r |t ta a|
r t st rt t | a t a |a | i j t It si s r a |a 1 t ra i t
a r i Iari a, tt r t|a t r 1 t | a t ta1 a a r a 1 t |as
st ri t s t r r i tt | t s r t t sIati t r ari a.
| r t | t a a 1 rt K I , st j rt st r I a r | t s
rt sa |Ia 1 t s 1 t | It sIt t a |a s t a ri a | |t s t r
j ri m t ras 1 i It rt r ti as, t | It r i t r 1 t tt m t t ra
1 t t sj t ra r, | a t I t 1 a s | a s st ri t s st r
t sIati t r ari as t r j ri m t ras 1 i It rt r ti as, t sIt
Cuadro N 1
Prueba aumentada de Dickey-Fuller
|r r i tt |
t sI | ri Ii ta| Va|a t s
t ri |sIa1 i sIi tt k | | X !X 1X |sIati t r ari t 1 a1
| | M k| - ,I!tI1I -\,1\ I1 -1,\!11I1 -1, !111t K t
| | | -I,1111I! -\,11t11 -1,\\1I -1, \1 1! K t
| | 1 -I,11I 1 -\,111t! -1,\\t -1, \1!I K t
16 Ver Anexo N 3.
1 t | i 1 t a | a t t | t sIa1 i sIi tt k | | t s m t r t r
m a s r t ] a I i t t | a t t | t a | t r t ri I i t t 1 t
M t| i r r t r a| X , !X 1X , j t r |t ta a| st
rt t| ata |a | i j t It si s r a |a 1 t rai t a r i Iari a.
Cuadro N 2
Prueba aumentada de Dickey-Fuller
|r | ri m t ras | i It rt r ti as
t sI | ri Ii ta| Va|a t s
t ri |sIa1 i sIi tt k | | X !X 1X |sIati t r ari t 1 a1
| | | | -!,\\111 -1,\1 I -I,I 11 -I,!1!I! i
| | | -!,1II11 -1,\I!!1 -I,t!11 -I,!1 t1 i
| | 1 -1,1!I ! -1,\I1\t -I,tI11 -I,!11\t i
| t s rt sa | I a 1 t s t r I rt ] a r t | t r1 t r 1 t
i r It ] rati t r 1 t |as tari a| |t s, 1 t | i 1 t a | a t
t r r i tt | st r r t t sIati t r ari as a| 1 i It rt r ti ar
t sI a s st t t r t i t rI t r t sI a t i t r a ri a s, st
t t r t | a t | a t I i t r t r a r t r1 t r 1 t
i r It ] rati t r I(1).
Prueba de Causalidad de las Series
17
| ara It sIt ar |a taa sa|i 1 a1 t r Irt |as st ri t s st
a I i | i t t | a j ra t | a 1 t | ra r ] t r

, | a t a a |
1 i sIi r ] a t ta aIrt tast s 1 t taa sa|i 1 a1 t r Irt
1 t s tari a| |t s
1
t t . || j ri m t r st ] a r 1 t
t a st t t r si sI t t r | a | a a sa | i 1 a 1
| r i 1 i rt tti t r a|, t r |a ta a| |a tari a| |t t taa sa
a |a tari a| |t t taa sa a t rt sj t tIi tam t r It .
|| It rtt r tast tt rrt sj t r 1 t a |a | aa sa|i 1 a1
| i 1 i rt t t i t r a | ra 1 i t a t r | a
rt I rt a | i m t r I a t i t r j rt 1 a t i 1 a t r I rt | a s
tari a| |t s t t . || ta arIt tast tt rrt sj t r 1 t a
| a | r 1 t j t r 1 t r t i a | a a sa | st j rt 1 a t t
ta ar 1 t t r t taa sa a t r t taa sa a t.
17 Ver Anexo N 4.
18 Prueba propuesta por Granger en el ao 1969 y popularizada posteriormente por Sims en el ao 1972.
19 HL Mata, Nociones Elementales de Cointegracin Procedimiento de Engel-Granger, pgina 59.
Cuadro N 3
Test de Casualidad de Granger
1 i j . K a |a |- IaIi sIi t | rt | a| i |i I | t ti si t r
| | | r t taa sa | | M k| ,1I\!1 1,1!I 1 K t rt t| atar 1 i j . K a |a
| | M k| r t taa sa | | | I,I11t 1,1IItt | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a
| | 1 r t taa sa | | M k| 1,111\I 1,!11t K t rt t| atar 1 i j . K a |a
| | M k| r t taa sa | | 1 1,ttI\I 1,I! \1 K t rt t| atar 1 i j . K a |a
| | 1 r t taa sa | | | 1,11111 1,!I!1 K t rt t| atar 1 i j . K a |a
| | | r t taa sa | | 1 ,\!1t 1, I11 K t rt t| atar 1 i j . K a |a
| t ata t r1 t a |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s j rt st r Ia1 t s t r
t | ta a1 rt K 1, st tt r t|a t | a t |a rt |ati t r
j rt j a t sIa t r Irt |as tari a| |t s | | M k | t | | |
t t rrt sj t r 1 t a a r a | a a sa | i 1 a 1
| r i 1 i rt tti t r a|, 1 t r 1 t | | M k| taa sa a | | |.
| a ra |a s t Ira s 1 t s rt |a t i t r t s j |a r It a 1 a s,
| | M k | -| | 1 t | | | -| | 1 , a m | a s
t t rrt sj t r 1 t r a | t a st 1 t | r 1 t j t r 1 t r t i a
| aa sa|.
Especificacin y Estimacin de la Relacin
Funcional
| t |t t | It r i 1 t t r t | It sIt t 1 t taa sa|i 1 a1
1 t | i 1 t a | a t t | rt sa |Ia1 t 1 t |a aj |i tati t r
1 t | m t It 1 t 1 t | t i r It ] rati t r |r ] |t -| rar ] t r
j a t 1 t t a m | i a r 1 t j t r 1 i t r 1 t 1 t t a a |
t a ri a | |t st st |t t t i t r t t t m t t t j |i t a 1 a t
t t j | i t a I i t a , j a ra | a s rt | a t i t r t s t t r
\1 Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
| r 1 t j t r 1 t r t i a | a a sa | st j rt | t | a
tt i r It ] rati t r tt r si 1 t rar 1 t a am | as st ri t s
tt m t j t si | |t tari a| |t 1 t j t r 1 i t r It . | ara |a
rt |a t i t r t t r | a a sa |i 1 a 1 | r i 1 i rt t t i t r a |
| | M k | -| | | , st ar a|i tt |a tt i r It ] rati t r
t t r si 1 t ra r 1 t a | a t a ri a | | t | | | t t m t
1 t j t r 1 i t r It .
| t m t st st 1 a|t ar It ri t rm t r It 1 t | i 1 t a
| a t t | a |t a r t t 1 t t sIa i r t t sIi ] a t i t r t s
t ta|a ar |a rt |ati t r 1 t |ar] t j |att , st |t st
rt a |i t t t | a r a |i si s t r t | t t r It t It 1 t a r
m t 1 t |t 1 t rt ] rt si t r |i r t a | si m j |t a r a
tari a| |t i r 1 t j t r 1 i t r It tt r tt r sIar It .
|r |a Ii ] a ra K st j rt st r Ia |a sa|i 1 a 1 t
|ti t s j ara |a rt |ati t r t r Irt t | | rt ti m i t r It
1 t t r 1 t r ti a | i t|t | | M k | |a Iasa 1 t
| r It rt s | t a| K t a Ira| | | | .
Figura N 1
| t i r It ] rati t r | | | 1 | s 1 | I |
I
k 1 } | w
| | | = !,1I1t -\, 1II | | M k | 1,II I 1,It! 1, I\
1,I1\I 1,tItI
| t s rt sa |Ia 1 t s m a t sIra r si ] r i Ii t a Ii t a a
| | M k| j ara t tj |i tar a | | |. || | a}t ta|t r 1 t |
t sIa1 i sIi tt | a r| i r -waIst r t s i r 1 i taIi tt 1 t
aa It tt rrt |ati t r j t si Ii ta t r |t s t rrt rt s
I a m | i t r j t 1 ri a st r i r 1 i t a I i t t 1 t r t
| t i r It ] rati t r . | a1 t | a t t | ta|t r 1 t | |
I
t s
m at r | a t t | ta|t r 1 t | w, st st sj t t| a 1 t
| a t |a rt ] rt si t r t sIi m a1 a t s t sj a ri a.
|r |as Ii ] a ras K I K 1 st j rt st r Iar |as
sa|i 1 as 1 t |ti t s j ara |a rt |ati t r t r Irt t |
| rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a | i t|t | | M k |
|as asas 1 t | M t rta1 t |i r ar ti t rt | | 1 .
Figura N 2
| t i r It ] rati t r | | M k| 1 | s 1 | I |
I
k 1 } | w
| | M k | = 1,\ II -1,1111 | | 1 1,1111 1,1111 1,1I!\
1,1\1t 1,1 1
Figura N3
| t i r It ] rati t r | | 1 1 | s 1 | I |
I
k 1 } | w
| | 1 = 1,It1\ - ,I1I | | 1 1,111 1,11 1,1\\
1,III1 1,\1!\
|t s rt sa |Ia1 t s m a t sIrar si ] r i Ii tar ti a t r Irt
|as tari a| |t s | | M k| | | 1, si r t m | ar] t , a r
| a } t a } a sI t 1 t | m t 1 t | t a r a | a } a
si ] r i Ii tar ti a tt r }a r Ia, a1 t m as t | | a}t ta|t r
1 t | | w i r 1 i ta a r a aa It tt rrt |ati t r j t si Ii ta
t r |t s t rrt rt s j t 1 ri a st r i r 1 i taIi tt 1 t r t
| t i r I t ] ra t i t r . k m | a s t a ri a | | t s r t
j rt st r Iar t r Irt si a r a rt |ati t r taa sa|, j t r
|t ta a| st tt r t|a t | a t |a rt |ati t r j |ar It a1 a
t s t sj a ri a.
|r |as Ii ] a ras K \ K ! st j rt st r Iar |as
sa|i 1 as 1 t |ti t s j ara |a rt |ati t r t r Irt |a
asa 1 t | r It rt s | t a| K t a Ira| | | | |as asas
1 t | M t rta1 t |i r ar ti t rt | | 1 .
\ Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
|t s rt sa |Ia1 t s m a t sIrar a r | a t r a}a sIt 1 t |
m t 1 t |t a r a a|Ia si ] r i Ii tar ti a tt r }a r Ia. ||
| a } t t a | t r 1 t | | w i r 1 i t a a r a
aa It tt rrt |ati t r j t si Ii ta t r |t s t rrt rt s. |r
t t r si 1 t ra t i t r | a t a m | a s t a ri a | | t s r t
j rt st r Iar t r Irt si a r a rt |ati t r taa sa| 1 a1 t
| a t | w - |
I
, st t t r t | a t | a t a m | a s
rt ] rt si t r t s tt rrt sj t r 1 t r a a r a rt |ati t r
t sj a ri a.
Prueba de Cointegracin de los Residuos
Estimados
20
| r a tt t ] a ar1 a1 t s |t s rt si 1 a t s t sIi m a1 t s
a j a rI i r 1 t | a s rt | a t i t r t s I a r t i t r a | t s
t sj t ti Ii ta1 as t r t | j ast ar It ri t r, st j rt tt 1 t
a rt a | i t a r | a j ra t | a 1 t | i t | t -| a | | t r
k a m t r Ia1 a j ara It sIt ar si t sIt s st r t r t
t sIati t r ari t s.
|r t | ta a1 rt K \ st j rt st r Ia |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s
1 t | It sI 1 t |t s rt si 1 a t s t sIi m a 1 t s 1 t |a
rt |ati t r t r Irt t | | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a
| i t |t | | M k | |a a sa 1 t | r It rt s | t a |
K t a Ira| | | | .
Figura N4
| t i r It ] rati t r | | | 1 | s I1 |
I
|
I
k 1 } | w
| | | = 1,1II! 1,11I\ | | 1 1,t I 1,t1I1 1,11
1,I\11 1,1t
Figura N5
| t i r It ] rati t r | | | 1 | s I1 |
I
|
I
k 1 } | w
| | 1 = 1,I I 1,t!I | | 1 1,t I 1,t1I1 1,II
1,I 1 1,1\I
Cointegracin DIMAC - IRP
t ri t |r 1 t ] t r a t ri t |tt ] t r a |sIa1 i sIi tt k | | t sI | ri Ii ta| Va|a t s | t ti si t r | t i r It ] rati t r
| | M k| | | | -1,1t!1\\ X -I,!\I1I | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
!X - ,1\1!t1 | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
1X - ,t \1II | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
Cuadro N4
t t | st rta | a t st rt t| ata |a | i j t It si s 1 t
rai t a r i Iari a, j t r |t | a t |t s rt si 1 a t s st r I(0),
st 1 a|ar 1 t | t i r It ] rati t r t r Irt |as tari a| |t s.
|r t | ta a1 rt K ! st m a t sIrar |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s
rt |ati t r t r Irt t | | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a
| i t |t | | M k | |a s a sa s 1 t | M t rt a 1 t
|i r ar ti t rt | | 1 .
Cointegracin DIMAC - UF10
| | M k| | | 1 -1,1!1tt1 X -I,!!1!1 | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
!X - ,1\1t I | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
1X - ,t \1I | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
Cuadro N5
20 Ver Anexo N 5.
\I Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
Cointegracin DIMAC - UF10
| | 1 | | M k | -I,IttI1I X -I,!!1!1 | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
!X - ,1\1t I | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
1X - ,t \1I | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
Continuacin de Cuadro N5
t t | st rt a | a t st | t | a 1 i It rt r t i a 1 t |
| M k| || 1 t t r 1 t r ti a-| i t|t tt m t tari a| |t
t tj |i taIi ta st | rt |as Iasas 1 t m t rta1 t a| X ,
!X 1X tt i r It ] rar .
|r t | ta a1 rt K t st t tj t r t r |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s
rt |ati t r t r Irt asa 1 t | r It rt s | t a| K t a Ira|
| | | |a s a sa s 1 t | M t rt a 1 t |i r a r t i t rt
| | 1 .
Cointegracin IRP - UF10
| | | | | 1 -1,I!!t\1 X -I,!\!11 | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
!X - ,1\1!\1 | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
1X - ,t \1\ | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
Cuadro N6
| | 1 | | | -1,I11t X -I,!\!11 | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
!X - ,1\1!\1 | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
1X - ,t \1\ | t t| atar 1 i j . K a |a i
|t s rt sa |Ia1 t s t r Irt ] ar | t i r It ] rati t r | asIa
t | 1X 1 t si ] r i Ii tar ti a.
Mecanismo de Correccin de Errores (ECM)
k j arIi r 1 t |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s t | It r i 1 t s t r t |
ar a|i si s 1 t | t i r It ] rati t r , a tt r Ii r a ati t r st
j rt st r Iar |as t ta ati t r t s t sIi m a1 as a Iratt s
1 t | M t tar i sm t 1 t | t rrt tti t r 1 t |rrt rt s
|| M j ara ta1 a a r a 1 t |as rt |ati t r t s 1 t
|ar] t j |att j rt j a t sIas.
|r |a Ii ] a ra K t st j rt st r Ia |a sa|i 1 a 1 t
|ti t s j ara t | M t tar i sm t 1 t | t rrt tti t r 1 t
|rrt rt s 1 t |a rt |ati t r t r Irt t | | rt ti m i t r It
1 t t r 1 t r ti a | i t|t | | M k| |a asa 1 t
| r It rt s | t a| K t a Ira| | | | .
Figura N 6
| t i r It ] rati t r | | | | 1 | s |
I
|
I
k 1 } | w
| | | | = -1,11t -\,!I1\ | | | M k | -1,11 | | | | | | | | M k | 1, \I 1,111 ,1\11
1,1\It ,\\!1 1,11I
| t s rt sa |Ia 1 t s m a t sIra r si ] r i Ii t a Ii tt t |
m t 1 t |t t sIi m a1 t . || It rm i r t -1,11t1 t s t |
M t t a r i sm t 1 t | t rrt t t i t r 1 t | rrt rt s. | |
si ] r t r t ] a I i t t a t I a a j a ra rt 1 a t i r t |
1 t st | a i |i | ri t t r t | j rt ti m t j t ri t 1 t , t r t sIt
tast , m t r sa a|m t r It .
|r |as Ii ] a ras K I K st j rt st r Iar |as
sa |i 1 a s 1 t | t i t s j a ra t | M t t a r i sm t 1 t
| t rrt tti t r 1 t |rrt rt s 1 t |a rt |ati t r t r Irt
t | | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a | i t|t | | M k|
|as asas 1 t | M t rta1 t |i r ar ti t rt | | 1 .
Figura N 7
| t i r It ] rati t r | | | M k| 1 | s |
I
|
I
k 1 } | w
| | | M k | = 1,111I -1,11I! | | | 1 -1,1 !I | | | | | | | | M k| | | 1 1,1 \ -1,111 1,I 1
1,11I 1,1 1! 1,1 \!
Figura N 8
| t i r It ] rati t r | | | 1 1 | s |
I
|
I
k 1 } | w
| | | = -1,11I\ -1,1\ t | | | M k | -1,1! \ | | | | | 1| | M k| 1,1tI 1,1\t\ ,\I
1,1I\\ 1,1\I 1,1 1I
|t s rt sa |Ia1 t s m a t sIrar a r | a}t a}a sIt t r
a m | t s m t 1 t | t s | a r t si ] r i I i t a r t i a
rt t i j rt t a t r Irt |a s t a ri a | |t s. t |t t r t |
m t 1 t |t t r | a t t | | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a
| i t|t | | M k| t tj |i ta |as asas 1 t | M t rta1 t
|i r ar ti t rt | | 1 , rt sa |It si ] r i Ii taIi tt t |
j aram t Irt 1 t | M t tar i sm t 1 t | t rrt tti t r 1 t
|rrt rt s.
|r |as Ii ] a ras K 1 K 1 st j rt st r Iar |as
sa |i 1 a s 1 t | t i t s j a ra t | M t t a r i sm t 1 t
| t rrt tti t r 1 t |rrt rt s 1 t |a rt |ati t r t r Irt
|a asa 1 t | r It rt s | t a| K t a Ira| | | | |as
asas 1 t | M t rta1 t |i r ar ti t rt | | 1 .
Figura N 9
| t i r It ] rati t r | | | | 1 | s 1 |
I
|
I
k 1 } | w
| | | | = -1,1\! -1,II I | | | 1 -1,11 | | | | | | | | 1 1,1t 1,1\1 ,I! !
1,1\11 1, tI\ 1,1\!
Figura N 10
| t i r It ] rati t r | | | 1 1 | s 1 |
I
|
I
k 1 } | w
| | | 1 = -1,11!t -1,1I1 | | | | -1, 11 | | | | | 1| | | 1, I1 1, \ ,1II
1,1I11 1,1\ 1,1I
| a s sa |i 1 a s 1 t | t i t s m a t sIra r a r a | a }t
a } a sI t t r a m | a s rt ] rt si t r t s | a r t
si ] r i Ii tar ti a rt ti j rt ta t r Irt |as tari a| |t s.
t |t t r t | m t 1 t |t t r | a t |a asa 1 t | r It rt s
| t a | K t a Ira | | | | t t j |i t a |a s a sa s 1 t |
M t rt a 1 t | i r a r t i t rt | | 1 , rt sa | I t
si ] r i Ii taIi tt t | j aram t Irt 1 t | M t tar i sm t 1 t
| t rrt tti t r 1 t |rrt rt s.
\\ Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
4. Conclusiones
| r | a | a s| a t 1 a 1 t I a r 1 a m t r I t s
t t t r t m i t t s | a t t t j | i | a t r | a I a sa 1 t
rt It rr t 1 t |t s i r sIra m t r It s 1 t 1 t a 1 a 1 t
|ar] t j |att t r t | m t rta1 t Ii r ar ti t rt , r t s
t r t t r I ra m t s t t r | a t r t t t i sI t a r a
t t j | i t a t i t r I t t ri t a 1 t t t r st r st | a t
rt | a t i t r t | t s j rt t i t s 1 t | t s a t I i t t s
Ii r a r t i t rt s t t r |a a sa 1 t | r It rt s | t a |
K t a Ira| | | K t t | | rt ti m i t r It 1 t |ar] t
j |att 1 t a r a t tt r t m i a.
| a j ri r t i j a | 1 i I i t a | I a 1 j a ra t r t t r I ra r
1 t Ii r i ti t r t s 1 t tt r tt r ti t r t r |a |i It raIa ra
ra1 i ta t r | a t |as tari a| |t s Ia r 1 am t r Ia|t s
1 t |a r] t j |a tt st r i r t | st rt a | |t s t a a
1 t Ii r i t i t r st a 1 a j Ia 1 t j t r 1 i t r 1 t 1 t |
m t It 1 t 1 t t sIi m ati t r a Ii |i ta1 t .
| t m t rt It rt r t i a 1 t t a ri a | | t s
I a r 1 a m t r I a | t s j a ra t t j | i t a r | t s
m t ti m i t r It s 1 t |as Iasas 1 t i r It rt s 1 t |ar] t
j |a tt | | 1 , st a Ii |i t t |a 1 i It rt r t i a 1 t |
| M k| || t r 1 t r ti a-| i t|t | | M k | |a asa
1 t | r It rt s | t a| K t a Ira| t sIi m a1 a a Iratt s
1 t | m t 1 t | t | | | , t t r | a s t a a | t s st
j rt j a si t rt r Irt s rt |ati t r t s j ara j rt | ar |a
| t i r It ] rati t r asi 1 t It rm i r ar si t ti sIt a r
t | a i | i | ri t 1 t | a r] t j | a t t t r I rt t sI a s
tari a| |t s. |as rt |ati t r t s j rt j a t sIas Ia t rt r
| | M k| -| | |, | | M k | -| | 1 | | |-| | 1.
|r |a rt |ati t r | | M k| -| | |, st t | st rta a r a
| aa sa|i 1 a1 | r i 1 i rt tti t r a| 1 t r 1 t | | M k |
t tj |i ta a | | |. k | It sIt ar |a tt i r It ] rati t r ,
rt sa |It | a t t ti sIt a r a rt |ati t r 1 t t | a i |i | ri t
t r Irt am | as tari a| |t s t | M t tar i sm t 1 t
| t rrt t t i t r 1 t | rrt rt s a rrt } t | a t | t s
j a ra m t Irt s 1 t t t rIt | a r] t j | a t t st r
si ] r i Ii t a Ii tt s. | sIt s rt sa |Ia 1 t s t m j i ri t t s
st r a r a t ti 1 t r ti a 1 t |a rt |ati t r 1 t |ar] t
j |att t r Irt t | | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a-
| i t | t | a a sa 1 t | r It rt s | t a | K t a Ira |
tari a| |t i r t | st rta| |t 1 t |a t tt r t m i a , tt r
t sIt t s j t si | |t Ia r 1 am t r Iar | a t t | m t 1 t |t
1 t | ari 1 a1 | r It rr ati t r a| 1 t asas 1 t | r It rt s
t s a r m t 1 t |t a 1 t t a a 1 t j a ra t sIi m a r |a
| | K .
| a rt | a t i t r | | M k | -| | 1 , a rrt } t
| r 1 t j t r 1 t r ti a | aa sa|. |a tt i r It ] rati t r st
j rt 1 a tt ta ar 1 t | | M k| t tj |i ta a | | 1, si r
t m | a r] t , a | rt ] rt si t r a r t | M t 1 t | t 1 t
| t rrt t t i t r 1 t | rrt rt s, st | t rt sa | I t
si ] r i Ii taIi tt t | j aram t Irt 1 t tt rIt j |att , |t
t a a | st t t j | i t a ri a j t r a r t rrt r 1 t
t sj t t i I i t a t i t r t r | a rt ] rt si t r . | t s
rt sa | I a 1 t s t | I t r i 1 t s 1 t t sI a rt | a t i t r
m a t sIra r t t i 1 t r t i a 1 t | a t |t s a ] t r It s
Ii r a r t i t rt s i r t t rj t ra r |t s Ia r 1 a m t r It s
t tt r t m i tt s t r sa s 1 t ti si t r t s.
|a rt |ati t r | | |-| | 1, m t sIrt | r 1 t j t r 1 t r ti a
| a a sa |. k 1 i It rt r t i a 1 t | t a st a r It ri t r, |a
tt i r It ] rati t r st j rt 1 a tt Iar It ta ar 1 t | | |
t tj |i ta a | | 1 tt m t ta ar 1 t | | 1 t tj |i ta a
| | |. k | rt ] rt si t r a r t | M t t a r i sm t 1 t
| t rrt t t i t r 1 t | rrt rt s, st | t rt sa | I t
si ] r i Ii taIi tt t | j aram t Irt 1 t tt rIt j |att t r
t | m t 1 t |t t r | a t | | | t tj |i ta a | | 1, |t ta a|
st t tj |i tari a j t r a r t rrt r 1 t t sj t ti Ii tati t r
t r |a rt ] rt si t r . k | i ] a a | | a t t r t | t a st
ar It ri t r, |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s j rt st r Iar t ti 1 t r ti a
1 t | a t |t s a] t r It s Ii r ar ti t rt s i r tt rj t rar
| t s I a r 1 a m t r I t s t t t r t m i t t s t r sa s
1 t ti si t r t s.
| t ata t r1 t a |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s t | It r i 1 t s t r
t sIa i r tt sIi ] ati t r , st tt r t|a t | a t t r | | i |t
t ti sIt a r a rt |ati t r 1 t |ar] t j |att t r Irt |a
asa 1 t | rt ti m i t r It 1 t t r 1 t r ti a, |a asa
1 t | r I t rt s | t a | K t a I ra | | a s I a sa s 1 t
rt It rr t s rt a|t s 1 t |ar] t j |att 1 t |t s atIi tt s
Ii r a r t i t rt s, j t r |t t a a | r t st rt t | a t a |a
| i j t It si s It rm a |a1 a t r t sIa i r tt sIi ] ati t r .
| t r |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s t | It r i 1 t s, t s j |aa si | |t
t sj t rar | a t |t s rt It rr t s 1 t |t s i r sIra m t r It s
|i | rt 1 t ri t s] t 1 t |ar] t j |att st m ar It r ] ar
1 t r I rt 1 t a r ra r ] t j rt j t rt i t r a | a | a
t sIi m ati t r 1 t |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s rt a| r t a Ira|,
ta a|| a i t r 1 t sa|i r t ati t r t r Irt t sIt s rar ] t s
j t 1 ri a st r tt r si 1 t ra1 t a r a t j t rIa r i 1 a1 1 t
\! Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
i r t t rsi t r t I i r a r t i a m i t r I t , si t m j rt
t a a r 1 t t | s| t t | | a t j rt 1 a t t | a
1 t sa | i r t a t i t r r t j rt t t | a t a r t a m | i t
j rt j t rti t r a| t r |a Iasa 1 t trt ti m i t r It 1 t
It r 1 t r ti a.
5. Referencias
k rt| i | a|1 , !t ar t 1 a r It r |t r i . I11
w| aI i s I| t r t a Ira| i r It rt sI raIt , ar 1 t
tar a st i I! | t st rtt | ar | t I K t l t a|ar 1 ,
| a ||t Ii r Vt | t\ K -1.
| at ta, w. I11\ . asa 1 t | r It rt s K t a Ira|
M i r a Ia | k M K 1 \ , | a r t t | t r Ira | 1 t
| | i |t .
| a s1 t t a r I , 1 . , K . | } t r| sI t r 1 .
| a ra ] t 1 i | |i I 1 1 \ . | sIi m a Ii r ] a i m t
Va r i r ] K t a Ira | | t a | | r It rt sI | a It It r
K t l t a|ar 1 . | i sta ssi t r | aj t r t ri t s
I11\I1 , | t st rtt | ar | t I K t l t a|ar 1 .
| t rr | ar1 st r . I11! . | t K t a Ira| | t a|
| r It rt sI | a It . Ia I I M t m t K I 1 1 ! I ,
K t r] t s | ar | .
| t m I i m , k r I a | i t . I 1 1 M t a sa ri r ]
t | a i |i | ri a m rt a| i r It rt sI raIt s. w| aI tar
t |t arr Irt m i t |1 s t r i r 1 t tt 1 | t r 1 s!
|t 1 t ra| | t st rtt | t ar1 .
| a |1 t rt r , | t sa r |ra r t i st t | a ||t ] t
I11I |a Iasa 1 t i r It rt s rt a| r t a Ira| t r
| | i |t . |r |tt r t m i a | | i |t r a. Vt |a m t r !,
K t . I . | t rt r t i a 1 t | r t t sI i ] a t i t r
|tt r t m i ta, | ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t .
| |ar| , .|. . | t ti t| i I11! |sIi m aIi r ]
|| a i |i | ri a m | t a| | r It rt sI | aIt s i r | t a|
i m t . | t K t rI| k m t ri tar !t a rr a| t I
|tt r t m i ts ar 1 |i r ar tt t 1 . 11!-\ 1.
|a t r It s, | ., | rt 1 i ] , |. |arrai r , M . I11 .
| a | rt t | a 1 t | rt 1 a t I t t r | | i | t .
M t 1 i t i t r | t a | a a t i t r . | t t r t m i a
| | i |t r a I . I-11.
|a t r It s, | ., ar 1 | rt 1 i ] | I11 ., asa 1 t
| r It rt s K t a Ira|, |sIi m ati t r t s j ara | | i |t .
wt r| i r ] | a j t r I 1 1 -1 | t t i sI a 1 t
|tt r t m i a 1 t | | ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t ,
Vt |a m t r - K I I a] t sIt I11.
| rar ] t r, | . | t tt |t j m t r Is i r I| t Ia 1
t I | t -| r It ] raIt 1 |tt r t m i t Vari a| |t s , t r
1 t It r1 | a | | t I i r t I | t t r t m i t s a r 1
IaIi sIi ts, tt |. \, 1t
M t st r r i t r !- ar 1 !-j | t r r t I11\ k
Ii m t -Vari r ] K aIa ra| | aIt t I | r It rt sI It r
I | t | a rt k rt a | a r | a t 1 t |ra r t t ,
wt r| i r ] | aj t r I11\-
M a 1 t t, |tt |r ar 1 t r t ri t |1 i r I11I-
|sIi m ati t r 1 t |a asa 1 t | r It rt s | t a|
K t a Ira| j ara |a |tt r t m i a | t sIarri tt r st .
11 -I11t . | t ta m t r It 1 t Ira| a}t 1 t |
| ar tt 1 t | t sIa | i ta, t |a| t ra1 t j t r t |
1 t j a rI a m t r I t 1 t | r t t sI i ] a t i t r
|tt r t m i ta.
| a m , !t a r | a a | a r 1 | a t t | rt ] I 1 1 \ -
1 | sIi m a Ii r ] | t |i t -K t a Ira | | r It rt sI
| a I t s | t r | a r a 1 a | si r ] a | r a m i t
I t t | a sI i t | t r t ra | | | a i | i | ri a m
|ram t t r| .
|aa | at| , | t m as !t | r wi ||i am s. I11 .
M t asa ri r ] I| t r aIa ra| raIt t I i r It rt sI .
| t a r1 t I | t t t rr t rs t I I | t | t 1 t ra |
| t st rtt sIt m .
| t ri a , | . t rrt s, | . | a rt i a -| a m t s, !.
I111 . |a m t It 1 t |t ] i a Vk | | t i r It ] ra1 t .
| r m t 1 t |t 1 t trt ti m i t r It t tt r t m i tt
j ara M t ti tt , 1-I11I
| a m i rt t , k . I 1 1 I | t i r I t ] ra t i t r
| ari 1 a1 | t sta | i t rIa 1 t |a asa 1 t | r It rt s
t r |a t tt r t m i a | t |t m | i ar a .
| t st r 1 t , |. I 1 1 I . | a K a t t a i r It si s
| t r t si ar a. k r a|i si s t | m j |i tar ti as 1 t
| t |i Ii ta M t r t Iari a .
\t Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
t | m i 1 I -1 t | | t | , | . | | t rt t i m i t r I t
t tt r t m i tt t r | | i |t I11t
Va||t , 1 . asj t tIt s tt r tt j Ia a|t s st | rt |a
t t Ira t t i t r 1 t st 1 a |t s a a r a st ri t 1 t
Ii t m j t sa aj |i tati t r t m j i ri ta a| i r 1 i tt
m t r sa a| 1 t atIi ti 1 a1 t tt r t m i ta | M k |-
wt t | 1 ri 1 ] t , ! . | r I rt 1 a t t i t r a | a
t tt r t m t Iri a , I11 t ] a r 1 a |1 i ti t r
\I Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, 4(1): 47 - 64, Diciembre 2010
Resumen
|| j rt st r It arIi ta |t rt ti sa |as j ri r ti j a|t s
t a ri a | | t s | a t a It t I a r | a a t I i t i 1 a 1
a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a | | t rIt Ira Ii t t |a . Ii j t 1 t
tam | i t rt a|, I j rt ti t s t tIt rr t s m t rta1 t s
1 t t tj t rIati t r , 1 arar tt |t s | arrt ras r t
arar tt |ari as, \ m aIt ri as j ri m as, ! taj ati 1 a1
t ti t sa taj ati 1 a1 i r sIa|a1 a, t t tt r t m i as
1 t t st a | a , I i r I t ] ra t i t r | t ri t t r I a | ,
i r It ] rati t r tt rIi ta| tt t r1 i r ati t r tt rIi ta|,
j rt 1 a tIi ti 1 a1 t Ii ti t r ti a. t tt r t|a t
| a t st IraIa 1 t a r ra | rt tt m j |t }t aIratIi tt
a |a t t t , 1 t t rt t i t r It i m j t rIa r t i a , | a t
1 t | i t ra t t r t i I a r m a t r i r I t rt s a |
1 t m t sI ra 1 t | a sI a a | t ra j t r j a rI t 1 t
i r tt sIi ] a1 t rt s t| i |t r t s t r |t s tam j t s 1 t |a
m i trt t tt r t m i a, |a t r] ar i tati t r i r 1 a sIri a|
Summary
This paper performs a review of the main
variables that affect the agroindustrial
activity based on fruit and vegetables: 1) the
real exchange rate, 2) external prices and
export markets, 3) tariff and non-tariff
barriers, 4) raw materials, 5) idle capacity and
installed capacity, 6) economies of scale, 7)
horizontal integration, vertical integration
and vertical coordination, and 8) productivity
and efficiency. One concludes that it is
simultaneously a complex and interesting
activity of growing importance, which
should attract greater interest to what has
been shown by Chilean researchers from the
fields of microeconomics, industrial
organization and the new institutional
economics.
Keywords: export markets, raw materials, real
exchange rate, efficiency, vertical integration
and coordination, and idle capacity.
JEL Classification: Q13, L11 and L66.
I. Introduccin
|as i r 1 a sIri as ti r ta |a1 as a |a a] ri ta |Ia ra,
j arIi ta |arm t r It |t | a t | a 1 a1 t t r ||am arst
a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a | t rIt Ira Ii t t |a , Ia t i t rt r sa
1 t sj t ] a t t r |a 1 t ta1 a 1 t |t s t t| t r Ia. ||
a a m t r I t 1 t | a t It rI a a ] ri t t | a I a r I t
t tj t rIa| |t tt m t r t t tj t rIa| |t , 1 t ri ta1 t
1 t | j rt tt st 1 t aj t rIa ra tt m t rti a| i r i ti a1 t
t r |a 1 t ta1 a j rt ti a, st Ira1 a }t t r a r raj i 1 t
Una revisin de las variables relevantes
para la Agroindustria Hortofruticola
1
Departamento de Economa, Recursos Naturales y Comercio Internacional
Facultad de Administracin y Economa
Universidad Tecnolgica Metropolitana
luis.adolfo.valenzuela@gmail.com
1 El autor agradece los comentarios y sugerencias de Roberto Contreras Marn.
trt ti m i t r It 1 t |a j rt 1 a tti t r a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|.
| t |a| t rt tt r t sIt t | a| ar 1 t r t , t r }a r i t 1 t
1I, 1 t a r si sIt m a tam | i ari t ri ] i 1 t 1 t | ;
= ; 11, | a t | a| i a si 1 t i m j a t sIt 1 t s1 t }a |i t
1 t 1I1.
| t a t a t r1 t t t r | a s t i I ra s fob 1 t
| | i |t a|i m t r It s I1 1a , t | j ai s t tj t rIt t r
1 |a sa m a 1 t | ; 1I m i ||t r t s t r Ira Ias
| t rIa|i tas j rt tt sa1 as, i r trt m t r Iar 1 t st t r
I11 a | ; .!!! m i ||t r t s, a1 t | a t m artt t |
peak 1 t t sIas t tj t rIati t r t s. || a1 t 1 st
tt r si ] a i t a r a ti Ira 1 t t tj t rIati t r sa j t ri t r
a |t s | ; 1 1 m i ||t r t s, t | a 1 t 1 1 ! a r a
sa j t ri t r a |t s | ; !11 m i ||t r t s t | a1 t I11I
a r a sa j t ri t r a |t s | ; .111 m i ||t r t s. |as
ti Iras 1 t t tj t rIati t r 1 t |a a] rt i r 1 a sIri a
| t rIt Ira Ii tt |a m a t sIrar a r a t|ara It r 1 t r ti a
| ati a arri | a t r t | j t ri t 1 t 1 -I11, a j t sar
1 t a|] a r t s a|Ii | a}t s t t| i | i 1 t s t r ti t rIt s
sa | j t ri t 1 t s.
t 1 t s |t s tt m j t r t r It s 1 t |a i r 1 a sIri a 1 t
Ira Ias | t rIa|i tas m a t sIrar t sIa It r 1 t r ti a
astt r 1 t r It t r t | ta|t r 1 t sa s t tj t rIati t r t s
t r i ] a a | j t ri t 1 t . | a s t t r st rt a s, | t s
1 t s| i 1 raIa1 t s, |t s tt r ] t |a1 t s |t s }a ] t s.
| a s t t r st rta s t t rrt sj t r 1 t r a |a s j a sIa s
| t rIi tt |as It m aIt , |as j a |j as m t rm t |a1 as
1 a ra t r t 1 a m a st t , |a t t r st rtt ri a 1 t
Ira Ia s a | r a Ia ra | t a | a |m i | a r t t rt t a s
1 a ra t r t s | t s t t t | Ia i | 1 t Ira Ia s. | t s
1 t s| i 1 raIa1 t s tt rrt sj t r 1 t r , t r |t ] ra t st ,
a j asas, a|m t r 1 ras, r a t tt s rt sa m t s| a t Ia.
| t s t t r ] t | a 1 t s, a I ra I i | | a s, m t ra s
Iram | a t sas, t r Irt t Irt s. |t s }a ] t s, a a ta,
m ar tar a, Iram | a t sa, | i i , j t ra ti ra t |a.
|as t tj t rIati t r t s 1 t tt r st rtas a|tar ta| ar
|a t i Ira 1 t | ; , 1 m i ||t r t s t | a 1 t 1 ,
|t ] rar 1 t | ; \\\ m i ||t r t s t | a1 t I11. |as
t tj t rIati t r t s 1 t 1 t s| i 1 raIa1 t s a|tar ta| ar
|a ti Ira 1 t | ; I1, m i ||t r t s t | a1 t 1 ,
|t ] rar 1 t | ; !!1 m i ||t r t s t | a1 t I11. |as
t tj t rIati t r t s 1 t tt r ] t |a1 t s t t| i | i ar |a
m t 1 t sIa ti Ira 1 t | ; , I m i ||t r t s t | a1 t
1 , |t ] rar 1 t | ; 1I m i ||t r t s t | a1 t I11.
|sIt | a si 1 t t | ra | rt | a t | a t tj t ri m t r Ia1 t
|a m at r Iasa 1 t trt ti m i t r It t r t | j t ri t 1 t .
| i r a |m t r It , |a s t t j t rIa t i t r t s 1 t }a ] t s
a|tar ta| ar |a ti Ira 1 t | ; I,\ m i ||t r t s t | a1 t
1 , |t ] rar 1 t | ; I1 m i ||t r t s t | a1 t I11.
| a rt t t si t r t ri si s subprime 1 t t |a ra 1 a
a| i t rIam t r It t | a |Ii m t ta aIri m t sIrt 1 t | a1 t
I11, | a t Ira}t aj art }a1 a a r a tai 1 a t r |a
1 t m ar 1 a m a r 1 i a| j t r |a ] rar m at ri a 1 t
| i t r t s, Ia tt a r i m j atIt r t ] aIi tt st | rt t sIas
ti Iras j ara t | a1 t si ] a i t r It . |r t It tIt , |as
t t j t rI a t i t r t s 1 t I ra I a s | t rI a | i t a s
j rt t t sa 1 a s rt I rt t t 1 i t rt r a | ; . I \ \
m i ||t r t s t | a1 t I111, sa Iri t r 1 t a r a tai 1 a 1 t |
I1X rt sj t tIt 1 t | a1 t ar It ri t r.
|as ti Iras 1 t | | i |t a|i m t r It s I1 1| j ara
t sIas t tj t rIati t r t s t r |t s m t st s t r t rt -
}a |i t 1 t I1 1 i r 1 i tar | a t t | a1 t tt rrari a tt r
a r i r trt m t r It rt sj t tIt 1 t I111, j t rt sa
ta|t r Ii r a| st ri a | asIar It i r It ri t r a| 1 t I11.
t aj rt ti a a1 t m as a r a 1 i sm i r a ti t r t r t |
j rt ti t j rt m t 1 i t t r 1 t |art s t | It r i 1 t j t r
I t r t | a 1 a t t j t rI a 1 a , | t | a t st t t j | i t a
m at rm t r It j t r t | tt m j t rIam i t r It 1 t |t s
j rt 1 a tIt s tt r ] t |a1 t s.
| t s j ri r t i j a | t s 1 t sI i r t s 1 t | a s
t t j t rIa t i t r t s a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a |t s | t rIt Ira -
Ii tt |as t| i |t r as st r |sIa1 t s | r i 1 t s | ar a1 a
t r t | | t m i sIt ri t r t rIt , |a | r i t r |a rt j t a
t | |t }ar t 1 ri t r It !aj t r .
| ratt I1 1 i r 1 i ta | a t | | i |t st a | i ta tt m t
t | j ri m t r t t j t rIa 1 t r a r i tt | m a r 1 i a | 1 t
m a r t a r a s 1 t s| i 1 ra Ia 1 a s, t | st ] a r 1 t t r
t i ra t |a s st t a s, t | It rt t rt t r Ira m | a t sa s
tt r ] t |a1 as j asas, t | ta arIt t r tt r st rtas
1 t 1 a ratr t s, t | ! t r a ta m at r a 11 | ri t
j a |j as, j a rt s }a|t as.
I
2 Chile ha sido definido en el contexto americano, por Gudynas y Evia (2003), como un pas de ingreso medio alto y
exportador neto de productos agrcolas primarios y procesados.
Una revisin de la variables relevantes para la agroindustria hortofruticola
| t ata t r1 t a| a |Ii m t | aIasIrt k ] rt i r 1 a sIri a|
tt r | a t st ta t r Ia, t r t | a1 t I11 t ti sIi ar
t r | | i | t I 1 j | a r I a s a ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a | t s
| t rIt Ira Ii tt |as, 1 i ti 1 i 1 as st ] a r sa ra | rt
j ri r ti j a| 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r t r . !I 1 t tt r st rtas,
tI 1 t 1 t s| i 1 raIa1 t s, ! 1 t tt r ] t |a1 t s 1
1 t }a ] t s. |as rt ] i t r t s tt r m at r tar Ii 1 a1
1 t j | a r I a s st r | a M t I rt j t | i I a r a
1 t s| i 1 ra I a 1 t s t t r ] t | a 1 t s | a V | |
tt r st rtas tt r ] t |a1 t s .
|a i m j t rIar ti a 1 t |as ti Iras rt ti sa1 as }a sIi Ii ta
t | j rt ] a r Iarst ta a|t s st r |as tari a| |t s 1 t
m a t r rt | t t a r t i a j a ra t | ra | rt
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a| | t rIt Ira Ii tt |a!, tt r si 1 t rar 1 t
| a t t sIa a t Ii t i 1 a 1 , t a a m a It ri a j ri m a
j rt ti t r t 1 t | st tIt r a] ri tt |a j ri m ari t , t sIa
I a r 1 a m t r I a | m t r I t t ri t r I a 1 a a | t s
m t rta1 t s 1 t t tj t rIati t r .
| | j rt st r It a rIi t a |t rt a |i t a a r a rt t i si t r
It t ri t a 1 t 1 i t | a s t a ri a | |t s 1 i st a It sa
i m j t rI a r t i a j a ra | a i r 1 a sI ri a 1 t | t s
j rt tt sa1 t s | t rIt Ira Ii tt |as.
II. Variables Relevantes
3
|sIa st tti t r rt ti sa |as si ] a i t r It s tari a| |t s
| a t tt r 1 i ti t r ar |a atIi ti 1 a1 a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|
| t rIt Ira Ii t t |a . Ii j t 1 t t a m | i t rt a |, I
j rt t i t s t t I t rr t s m t rt a 1 t s 1 t
t t j t rIa t i t r , 1 a ra r t t |t s | a rrt ra s r t
arar tt |ari as, \ m aIt ri as j ri m as, ! taj ati 1 a1
t ti t sa taj ati 1 a1 i r sIa|a1 a, t t tt r t m i as
1 t t st a | a , I i r I t ] ra t i t r | t ri t t r I a | ,
i r It ] rati t r tt rIi ta| tt t r1 i r ati t r tt rIi ta|,
j rt 1 a tIi ti 1 a1 t Ii ti t r ti a.
1. Tipo de Cambio Real
|r a r st r Ii 1 t | i |aIt ra| t 1 t tt m t rti t t r Irt
1 t s j ai st s, t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a| 1 t a r j ai s
tt m t | | i |t rt sj t tIt 1 t a r j ai s t tIrar }t rt
tt m t |sIa1 t s | r i 1 t s t s t | j rt ti t rt |aIi tt
1 t |t s | i t r t s 1 t | j ai s t tIrar }t rt rt sj t tIt
1 t |t s | i t r t s r ati t r a|t s. |r Iar It , t | Ii j t
1 t t a m | i t rt a | m a | I i | a I t ra | j a t 1 t st r
t r It r 1 i 1 t si m j |t m t r It tt m t a r a m t 1 i 1 a
j t r 1 t ra1 a 1 t |t s Ii j t s 1 t tam | i t rt a|t s
| i |aIt ra|t s, t r |a | a t |as j t r 1 t rati t r t s t
i m j t rIar ti a rt |aIi ta 1 t ta1 a a r t 1 t t ||t s
] a ar1 ar rt |ati t r tt r |as j rt j t rti t r t s | a t
rt j rt st r I a j a ra | a t t t r t m i a | t t a | t |
tt m t rti t tt r |t s 1 i sIi r It s j ai st s.
|| Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a| ti t r t 1 a1 t j t r.
. R =(E P*) / P
| t r 1 t R t s t | i r 1 i tt 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a|,
E t s t | i r 1 i tt 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t r t m i r a|,
P* t s t | 1 t I|atIt r 1 t | j rt 1 a tIt i r It rr t | ra It
1 t | j ai s t tIrar }t rt P t s t | 1 t I|atIt r 1 t |
j rt 1 a tIt i r It rr t | ra It |t ta|.
| t r t sIa si m j |t It rm a |a st ti sa a|i ta | a t |as
tari ati t r t s t r t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a| j a t 1 t r
1 t | t rst Iar It a tari ati t r t s t r t | Ii j t 1 t
tam | i t r t m i r a|, tt m t a tari ati t r t s t r |t s
j rt t i t s 1 t | t s | i t r t s t t I ra r } t rt s t a
t a ri a t i t r t s t r |t s j rt t i t s 1 t |t s | i t r t s
|t ta|t s. |t rt |t tar It a| a i st r |as tari ati t r t s
| a t j a t 1 a j rt st r Iar t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a|.
|| Ii j t 1 t tam | i t r t m i r a| tt rrt sj t r 1 t a|
j rt ti t 1 t a r a a r i 1 a1 1 t m t r t 1 a t tIrar }t ra
t 1 t a r a tar asIa 1 t m t r t 1 as t tIrar }t ras ,
t tj rt sa1 t t r It rm i r t s 1 t |a m t r t 1 a |t ta|.
| r a aj rt ti ati t r tam | i ari a tt r si sIi ra t r a r
t r tart ti m i t r It rt |aIi tt 1 t t sIa a |Ii m a. i t |
| ar tt tt r Ira| 1 t a r j ai s t j Ia j t r a r si sIt m a
t a m | i a ri t I| t Ia r It , t t m t t | | a t | | i | t
a1 t j It a Ii r t s 1 t | a1 t 111, |a rt |ati t r 1 t |a
m t r t 1 a |t t a | rt sj t t It 1 t |a s m t r t 1 a s
t t I ra r } t ra s t , a | m t r t s 1 t | 1 t | a r
3 Esta seccin est basada en Valenzuela (2010). La editorial de la Universidad Tecnolgica Metropolitana ha publicado
recientemente el libro Economa Agroindustrial, gracias al semestre sabtico otorgado a su autor mediante Resolucin
N 0963 Exenta (02.03.2009).
!1 Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
r t rIt am t ri tar t t sIara Ii }a1 a j t r |a t It rIa
1 t m ar 1 a 1 t 1 i ti sas t r t | m t rta1 t . t rar |t s
j rt j i t s m t tar i sm t s 1 t | m t rta1 t tam | i ari t
, t r ] t r t ra | , | a 1 i r a m i t a 1 t | a s
Irar satti t r t s i r It rr ati t r a|t s 1 t | j ai s, 1 t
m t rtar ti as taj i Ia|t s, |t s | a t 1 t It rm i r arar
t | ta|t r 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t t r a r a It t| a
1 a1 a.
|r t | tast 1 t | st tIt r a] rt i r 1 a sIri a| t| i |t r t ,
a r a j a rIt m a t ri Ia ri a 1 t sa j rt 1 a t t i t r
I i t r t t t m t 1 t sI i r t | t s m t rt a 1 t s
i r It rr ati t r a|t s, j t r |t | a t 1 i t| t s i r ] rt st s
st t r t a t r Ira r t t j rt sa 1 t s t r 1 i t i sa s. t
t sIi m a | a t a|rt 1 t 1 t r 1 t a r !X 1 t |a Ira Ia
i r 1 a sIri a|i ta1 a t s t tj t rIa1 a | ratt I1 1 . |as
t m j rt sa s a ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a | t s st t t ra r
Iatt rt ti 1 as t r Ii t m j t s 1 t 1 t j rt ti ati t r t s
tam | i ari as j t r}a 1 i ta1 as t r Ii t m j t s 1 t
j rt | t r ] a 1 a a j rt t i a t i t r t a m | i a ri a ,
j arIi ta |arm t r It ta ar 1 t |t s a}a sIt s t r t |
m t rt a 1 t 1 t 1 i t i sa s st a r m a | t r It s t
i r It rtt r ] ar t Irt s IatIt rt s | a t m ar It r ] ar
j t r |ar] t Ii t m j t 1 i t| a aj rt ti ati t r . | r t 1 t
t sIt s a |Ii m t s IatIt rt s t s t | st sIt r i 1 t boom
t tj t rIa1 t r 1 t a r commodity, tt m t t s t |
t a st 1 t | t t | rt , t a t j t st 1 t r Irt 1 t |a s
t t j t rI a t i t r t s r a t i t r a | t s sa j t ra t |
t i r t a t r Ia j t r t i t r It . | a | i | a i 1 a t i t r t
1 t sIi r t 1 t |t s rt It rr t s ta j ri It rt s t r 1 i ti sas
t s si t m j rt a r a 1 t ti si t r 1 t |i ta1 a j ara |as
a a I t ri 1 a 1 t s j t r sa s t It t I t s st | rt t |
m t rta1 t tam | i ari t . |sIt r t t ta rrt tt r |a
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a | t rIt Ira Ii tt |a, It Ia|m t r It t r
m a r t s 1 t j ri t a 1 t s, t a t s rt It rr t s r t
a It t Ia r 1 t m a r t ra si ] r i Ii t a Ii t a a 1 i t | t
m t rta1 t .
| a}t a r si sIt m a 1 t I|t Iati t r |i | rt j a t 1 t
| a| t r j t ri t 1 t s 1 t a|Ia tt |aIi |i 1 a1 tam | i ari a.
|sIt i r trt m t r Ia t | ri t s] t ast ti a1 t a| rt It rr t
t r m t r t 1 a | t t a | | a t ] t r t ra r | a s
t tj t rIati t r t s. k | st tIt r a] rt i r 1 a sIri a| r t
st |t |t 1 t sIa t t rt t t a r 1 t |a r | a }t , si r t
Ia m | i t r a r t st t r a ri t 1 t a |Ia tt |a Ii |i 1 a 1
t a m | i a ri a , j t r| a t I t rr a i r t i t rI t s t
i r t sIa | | t s sa s i r ] rt st s rt r Ia | i | i 1 a 1 .
| a ar 1 t t sIa tt |aIi |i 1 a1 st | rt j asa ti t rIt
ra r ] t |a a j rt t i a t i t r t a m | i a ri a j a rt t t
1 t s| t r1 a r |a s t sIi m a t i t r t s 1 t | Ii j t 1 t
tam | i t 1 t t | a i |i | ri t , a| a t | tt m j aIi | |t tt r
|t s Ia r 1 am t r It s 1 t |a t tt r t m i a, t r It r tt s
st ta t |tt a j t r t r t | att r It t r a r a j t si | |t
i r It rt t r t i t r 1 t | | a r t t t t r Ira | , t r | t s
i r sIra m t r It s 1 t tt | t rIa ra r t tt sari t s j ara
rt 1 a ti r t | ri t s] t tam | i ari t ast ti a1 t a |as
atIi ti 1 a1 t s t tj t rIa1 t ras t t r |as j t si | |t s
m t 1 i 1 a s t t m j t r sa I t ri a s | a t j a 1 i t ra
i m j a |sar t | ] t | i t rr t j ara 1 ar|t a r am | i t r It
1 t m at r t | a i ta|t r ti a a |a tt rIi 1 a m | rt a |t s
ra | rt s a It t Ia 1 t s. | r t sIt t t r It t It , a r a
i r I t rt t r t i t r 1 t | | a r t t t t r I ra |
1 t j rt ti ati t r m t 1 i Ii tari a |as j rt It rt r ti as
1 t |t s tt r sa m i 1 t rt s t r Iatt r 1 t |t s | i t r t s
st rti ti t s r ati t r a|t s, t r 1 t sm t 1 rt 1 t |t s
i m j t rIa1 t s.
| r rt |a t i t r a . , si ] a i t r 1 t t | t }t m j |t
| i |aIt ra| | | i |t -|sIa1 t s | r i 1 t s, | a| ra a r a
aj rt ti ati t r rt a| 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t si |t s
| i t r t s t| i |t r t s st | att r rt |aIi tam t r It m as
tart s | a t |t s | i t r t s r t rIt am t ri tar t s. si tat
t | j rt t i t rt | a I i t t 1 t t sI t s a | I i m t s
t tj rt sa1 t s t r j t st s t| i |t r t s, tat ra t st
aj rt ti ara t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a|. |sIt j a t 1 t
t ta rri r aa r tt r a r Ii j t 1 t tam | i t r t m i r a|
Ii }t , si |t s j rt ti t s 1 t |t s | i t r t s r ati t r a|t s
sa | t r a a r ri Im t m at r | a t |t s j rt ti t s 1 t
|t s | i t r t s t tIrar }t rt s.
| r a 1 i sIi r ti t r i m j t rIar It t s a| a t ||a t r Irt
| i t r t s I ra r sa | | t s t t m t rt i a | | t s
i r It rr ati t r a|m t r It | i t r t s r t Irar sa| |t s
r t t t m t rt i a | |t s a r i tt | i r It rr a t i t r a | ,
j a t sIt | a t ta ar 1 t r a1 a st 1 i tt a| rt sj t tIt
st t sIa sa j t r i t r 1 t i m j |i t i Ia m t r It | a t
It 1 t s |t s | i t r t s st r sa stt j Ii | |t s 1 t st r
Irar sa1 t s t r t | m t rta1 t i r It rr ati t r a|. |t s
| i t r t s Irar sa| |t s st r It 1 as |as m t rtar ti as
st rti ti t s sa stt j Ii | |t s 1 t st r t tj t rIa1 t s t
i m j t rIa 1 t s, sa s j rt t i t s i r It rr t s st r
1 t I t rm i r a 1 t s j t r | t s j rt t i t s
i r It rr ati t r a|t s, t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t r t m i r a|,
| a j t | i I i t a I ri | a I a ri a | a s j t | i I i t a s 1 t
t t m t rt i t j t |i Ii t a a ra r t t |a ri a j ri r t i j a |-
m t r It . |r tam | i t , |t s | i t r t s r t Irar sa| |t s
st r It 1 t s |t s | i t r t s st rti ti t s | a t r t st r
sa }t It s 1 t Irar satti t r i r It rr ati t r a|. | r a
j a rIt r t m t r t r 1 t | 1 t st a rIt 1 t st t | t
| t rIt Ira Ii tt |a st tt m j t rIa j ratIi tam t r It
tt m t a r r t Irar sa| |t . Ii t r t t stasa 1 t m ar 1 a
1 t | t tIt ri t r tasi r t t s j t si | |t i m j t rIar|t ,
j a t sIt | a t t r t Irt s j ai st s Iam | i t r saIi sIatt
1 t m t 1 t t tt|a si tt t | m t rta1 t i r It rr t .
| a r a I a ra | t t a r t t t m t rt i a | | t 1 t | t s
1 t r t m i r a1 t s | i t r t s r t Irar sa| |t s Ii t r t
a r a i m j | i t a r t i a i m j t rIa r It . k | r t st r
j t si | |t t t j t rIa r t i m j t rIa r t | | i t r , |a
1 t m ar 1 a t It rIa |t ta|t s Ii t r 1 t r a ] t r t rar
a r a j t si ti t r 1 t t | a i |i | ri t . | a ar 1 t r t | a
t t m t rt i t i r It rr a t i t r a | j t r t | | i t r , a r a
tai 1 a t r sa 1 t m ar 1 a i r It rr a r t j t 1 ra st r
rt sa t |Ia t i a t t j t rIa t i t r 1 t | t t t t st 1 t
taj ati 1 a1 , si r t | a t m t 1 i ar It a r a | a}a t r
sa j rt ti t i r It rr t . |sIt j rt ti t i r It rr t j t 1 ra
1 i It ri r 1 t | j rt ti t | a t It r ] a t | m i sm t | i t r
t r t | rt sIt 1 t | m a r 1 t .
1 a 1 t s Ia t I t rt s j ri m t r1 i a | t s | a t
1 t It rm i r ar | a t a r | i t r st a Irar sa| |t . t |
t t sIt 1 t Ira r sj t rIt t | j rt It t t i t r i sm t
t t m t rt i a |. | | t t sIt 1 t Ira r sj t rIt 1 t |t s
| i t r t s st rti ti t s t s a r a | arrt ra r aIa ra| a|
tt m t rti t i r It rr ati t r a|. k m t r t r tt sIt 1 t
I ra r sj t rI t 1 t a r j rt 1 a t I t t t m t
j rt j t rti t r 1 t sa tt sIt It Ia|, m at r st ra |a
j rt | a| i |i 1 a1 1 t | a t t st j rt 1 a tIt st Irar st
t r t | m t rta1 t m a r 1 i a|. |t s j rt 1 a tIt s tt r
a r a|It ta|t r j t r a r i 1 a1 1 t j t st tt |a m t r ,
j t r |t Iar It tt r a r tt sIt 1 t Irar sj t rIt
m t r t r t r rt |ati t r a sa ta|t r It Ia|, It r 1 t rar
a st r m a Irar sa| |t s t | m t }t r t }t m j |t t s t |
t rt , | a t Ii t r t a r j rt ti t m a r 1 i a| . |r t Irt s
tast s, t s t | a|It tt sIt 1 t Irar sj t rIt t | IatIt r
| a t | a t t | a t 1 i t | t j rt 1 a t I t st a r t
Irar sa| |t . |t s arar tt |t s, ta t Ias 1 t tt m t rti t
t Ira s | a rrt ra s j rt It t t i t r i sIa s Ia m | i t r
j a t 1 t r i m j t 1 i r t | |i | rt I|a }t 1 t m t rtar ti as
a Ira t t s 1 t |a s Irt r It ra s, a a r t t r | a }t s
tt sIt s 1 t Irar sj t rIt . M i t r Iras m at rt s st ar
| a s | a rrt ra s a rI i I i t i a | t s a | t t m t rt i t
i r It rr ati t r a|, m t r t r st ra |a j rt | a| i |i 1 a1 1 t
| a t a r | i t r st a Irar sa1 t . | r | i t r j a t 1 t
r t i m j t rI a rst r i t t j t rI a rst si t |
j rt It t t i t r i sm t | a t t 1 t t | a r | i t r r t
Irar sa| |t .
| sIa s t a It ] t ri a s r t st r i r m a Ia | |t s. | t s
a t a r t t s It t r t |t ] i t t s j a t 1 t r rt 1 a t i r t |
tt sIt 1 t Irar sj t rIt |t ] rar | a t m as | i t r t s
j a t 1 a r st r t t m t rt i a 1 t s i r I t rr a -
t i t r a | m t r I t . | r a 1 i sm i r a t i t r 1 t |
j rt It tti t r i sm t It r 1 t ra a at| i tar |a |i sIa 1 t
| i t r t s r t Irar sa| |t s. am j t tt | a | a t st r
ri ] i 1 t t r t sIa t |a si Ii t a t i t r . 1 | sIIt |1
| t ] t II I 1 1 1 st 1 a |a r | a t |t s 1 i sIi r It s
] ra1 t s 1 t Irar sa| i |i 1 a1 1 t |t s | i t r t s st r
j rt j t rt i t r a |t s a |a s m a ] r i Ia 1 t s 1 t |t s
tt sIt s 1 t Irar satti t r i r tt |a tra1 t s.
\
k si , st
j a t 1 t ] t r t rar a r a t sta|a 1 t Irar sa| i |i 1 a1 ,
1 t r 1 t |t s | i t r t s Ira r sa | |t s Ii t r t r t t rt
tt sIt s 1 t Irar satti t r |t s r t Irar sa| |t s
i r Ii r i It s. |a Irar sa| i |i 1 a1 st m ar i Ii t sIa t r
|a i r It r si 1 a1 tt r |a ta a| a r ti t rIt j rt 1 a tIt
t s Irar sa1 t .
|s j t si | |t t r It r 1 t r a|It rr aIi tam t r It t | Ii j t
1 t t a m | i t rt a | t t m t |a rt |a t i t r j rt t i t
I ra r sa | | t s-j rt t i t r t I ra r sa | | t s . | a
t ri t r Iati t r t tj t rIa1 t ra | a t taratIt ri ta a
|t s j rt 1 a tIt s a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|t s | att | a t t sIa
atIi ti 1 a1 st a m a st r si | |t a |as tari ati t r t s
1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t rt a|. |a a] rt i r 1 a sIri a
| t rIt Ira Ii tt |a Irar sIt rm a a r a m aIt ri a j ri m a
rt | a I i t a m t r I t j t t t I ra r sa | | t t r a r
4 Los costos de transaccin son propios del funcionamiento del sistema econmico, y surgen de negociar y llevar a
cabo una transaccin (ex-ante), as como por una mala negociacin, ajuste y salvaguarda del contrato en cuestin (ex-
post), ya sea por errores, omisiones y alteraciones inesperadas (Williamson 1993), o acciones oportunistas (Hallwood
1990).
!I Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
j rt 1 a tIt Ii r a| Irar sa| |t . |s asi tt m t a r a
tai 1 a st sIt r i 1 a t r t | j rt ti t rt |aIi tt 1 t |t s
| i t r t s Irar sa| |t s, | a t st rt I|t }ara t r a r a
It r 1 t r ti a 1 t trt ti t r It 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t
rt a |, j rt tt t a ra a r t m j t t ra m i t r It t r |a
rt r Ia| i |i 1 a1 rt |aIi ta 1 t 1 i t| t s j rt 1 a tIt s.
|sIt ] t r t rara a r a 1 t sti ati t r 1 t rt ta rst s
j rt 1 a tIi tt s 1 t s1 t |a j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t | i t r t s
t tj t rIa| |t s sa sIi Ia Ii tt s 1 t i m j t rIati t r t s,
tt m t |t st r |t s j rt 1 a tIt s a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|t s,
| a t i a i m j t rI a t i t r t s a t I i t i 1 a 1 t s r t
Irar sa| |t s.
1 Ira m t 1 i 1 a t r t sIa 1 i rt tti t r , j t rt m as
t sj t t i I i t a a | t s i r I t rt st s 1 t | t s
t tj t rIa1 t rt s a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|t s t s.
.I Mx =(E Px*) / Cx
| t r 1 t Mx t s t | i r 1 i t t 1 t | m a r] t r 1 t
rt r Ia| i |i 1 a1 1 t | | i t r x, Px* t s t | i r 1 i tt 1 t
j rt ti t s t tIt rr t s 1 t | | i t r x Cx t s t | i r 1 i tt
1 t | tt sIt 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t | | i t r x.
| sI a t s a r a m t 1 i 1 a 1 t | m a r] t r 1 t
rt r Ia| i |i 1 a1 1 t sa r t ] t ti t t tj t rIa1 t r t
ra t t r i r ] rt st -t t sI t . | sI t , j t r| a t t |
r a m t ra1 t r 1 t |a Iratti t r st rt tt r t tt tt r
t | i r ] rt st , t r m t r t 1 a r ati t r a|, | a t rt ti | t
t | j rt 1 a tIt r j t r a r i 1 a1 tt r 1 i 1 a a| t tIt ri t r,
m i t r Iras | a t t | 1 t r t m i r a1 t r |t | att tt r
t | tt sIt 1 t j rt 1 a ti r 1 i t| a a r i 1 a1 .
!
k m t 1 i 1 a
| a t M t 1 i sm i r a t , a st a j t r a r a tai 1 a t r
t | I i j t 1 t t a m | i t r t m i r a | , j t r a r a
1 i sm i r a ti t r t r t | j rt ti t j a] a1 t j t r 1 i t| t
| i t r t r |t s m t rta1 t s i r It rr ati t r a|t s, j t r
a r a a m t r It t r | t s t t sIt s i r It rr t s 1 t
j rt 1 a tti t r , t j t r a r a tt m | i r ati t r 1 t |as
ar It ri t rt s, Iam | i t r 1 i sm i r a i ra t | m ar] t r 1 t
rt r Ia| i |i 1 a1 1 t t sIa atIi ti 1 a1 a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|.
| t |a It rm a |a ar It ri t r t s j t si | |t 1 t 1 a ti r
| a t si Px* t tt |a ti t r a 1 t m ar t ra si m i |ar a
P*, si Cx |t | att Iam | i t r rt sj t tIt 1 t P,
t r I t r t t s Mx m t sI ra ra a r a I ra t t I t ri a
| asIar It tt r tt r] t r It tt r R. || j rt | |t m a st
j rt st r I a si t sI t r t st t a m j | t , t sj t -
ti a|m t r It ta ar 1 t t t s st |t a r t 1 t |t s m i |t s
1 t | i t r t s tt m t rti a1 t s tt r t | t tIrar }t rt
r t Ii t r t a r j t st si ] r i Ii taIi tt t r t | tt m t rti t
t tIt ri t r 1 t | j ai s. |r t sIt tast , t | i r 1 i tt R |t
st ra 1 t j t t a a I i | i 1 a 1 a | j rt 1 a t I t r
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a| t r ta ar It a sa tt r 1 i ti t r 1 t
t tj t rIa1 t r 1 t | | i t r t sj t ti Ii tt x.
| r t tj t rIa1 t r att j Iar It 1 t j rt ti t s t r |t s
m t rta1 t s i r It rr ati t r a|t s r t It r 1 ra t Ira
t j ti t r Irt r It a a r a aj rt ti ati t r tam | i ari a
j rt |t r ] a1 a, si 1 t st a m ar It r t r sa m ar] t r ,
| a t a}a sIar tt sIt s. am | i t r , a r 1 t |ar | a}t
j a t 1 t st r t t r I ra rrt sI a 1 t t t r j rt t i t s
i r It rr a t i t r a |t s m a s a |It s. | ra t t I 1 1
st 1 a | a | a t t r I rt I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 | a I ra I a
i r 1 a sIri a|i ta1 a | a i r trt m t r Ia1 t sa j rt ti t
m t 1 i t 1 t t tj t rIati t r t r a r 1IX . | ara |a
m i sm a 1 t ta1 a, t | j rt ti t m t 1 i t 1 t |a Ira Ia
Irt sta 1 t t tj t rIati t r |t | a| ri a | t t| t t r a r
I1X .
| r a It rm a |a t i t r a |It rr a Ii t a a |a a |Ii m a
t tj rt si t r , rt |ati t r a1 a t r t sIt tast tt r |a
| t 1 t a r st | t j rt t i t , st t | I i t r t
rt t m j |atar 1 t | t t r t | 1 t r t m i r a1 t r 1 t |a
t tj rt si t r ar It ri t r j t r t | i r 1 i tt 1 t j rt ti t s
i r It rr t s 1 t | j rt 1 a tIt t r t sIa 1 i t | t. | t t sIa
It rm a st t | Ii t r t a r i r 1 i tt | a t rt I|t }a |a
rt |ati t r j rt ti t 1 t tt r Ia t tIt rr t -j rt ti t 1 t
tt r Ia i r It rr t . i t sIa rt |ati t r st m ar Ii t r t
t t r sIa r It t i ] a a | a 1 1 t r t | Ii t m j t , t |
ta m j |i m i t r It 1 t |a |t 1 t a r st |t j rt ti t
t sIari a ast ] a ra1 t . | i t| t 1 t t Ira It rm a, si
5 Se debe tener presente que un buen clculo de Cx no es un desafo fcil para la agroindustria. En muchos casos
suele utilizarse P, que corresponde al deflactor (implcito) del producto interno bruto local o, ms sencillo, a una
aproximacin de l, denominado ndice de precios al consumidor -IPC- del pas local.
t r a r t stt r ari t 1 t j rt ti t s i r It rr ati t r a|t s
Ii }t s aj rt ti ati t r tam | i ari a t sIa rt |ati t r
m a t sIra t sIa| i |i 1 a1 , st j a t 1 t 1 t ti r | a t t |
pass-through t It tIt Irar sIt rt r ti a 1 t | Ii j t
1 t t a m | i t a | j rt t i t i r I t rr t t s
j ratIi tam t r It tt m j |t It .
t
| r It rt sar It st ri a sa| t r si |t s t tj t rIa1 t rt s
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|t s t| i |t r t s j a t 1 t r t }t rtt r |a
j ra t I i t a 1 t 1 i st ri m i r a r j rt t i t s st ] a r
m t rta1 t 1 t 1 t sIi r t t 1 t ata t r1 t a |as
tt r 1 i ti t r t s j arIi ta |art s 1 t |a 1 t m ar 1 a-,
tt m t 1 t r t m i r a | ra ] m ar 1I a| pricing
to market. |sIt 1 t m t sIrari a sa taj ati 1 a1
j a ra Ii } a r m a r] t r t s 1 t rt r Ia | i | i 1 a 1 t r
t j t t a s 1 t a j rt t i a t i t r t a m | i a ri a .
I
| r
t t r 1 i t i t r t s 1 t t t m j t It r t i a j t rIt t Ia
aa st r ti a 1 t tt sIt s 1 t Irar satti t r r t | a
|a ] a r j a ra t sIa j ra t Ii t a . i r t m | a r] t , |a
|i It raIa ra t tt r t m i ta | a t r Irt ] a1 t 1 i tt rst s
ar] a m t r It s 1 t j t r | a t |a |t 1 t a r st |t
j rt ti t r t st ta m j |t . ri ] i 1 t tt s 1 t j rt ti t s,
t t sI t s 1 t a } a sI t I ra r sa t t i t r ,
1 i st ri m i r a t i t r 1 t j rt t i t s t r m t rt a 1 t s
st ] m t r I a 1 t s j t | i I i t a t t m t rt i a | ,
Ia r 1 am t r Ia|m t r It . | ara a r m at r 1 t Ia||t
st | rt |a t ti 1 t r ti a t r tt r Ira1 a tt ar st |t s
Ira| a}t s 1 t a] r t r I1 1 , | rt sj t I11\ ,
| a|a] a t r t Irt s 11I , |ar ] t | at | 1 st ri t
I11 , | i |-| art }a I111 | i sIt ||i | i | a t |m t
I 1 1 . k 1 t m a s, | a m i sm a t t | a I i | i 1 a 1
t a m | i a ri a 1 i Ii t a | Ia ra t r | a j ra t Ii t a a r
Irasj ast i r sIar Iar t t 1 t j rt ti t s t tIt rr t s a
j rt ti t s i r It rr t s. | r asj t tIt 1 t rt |t tar ti a
j a ra j a i st s j ra t Ii t a m t r It m t r t t t j t r-
Ia1 t rt s t s t | t r tt r Ira1 t j t r k |tart t t Irt s
I111 . |a tt |aIi |i 1 a1 tam | i ari a aIt tIa m t r t s
|a t a r Ii 1 a 1 t t j t rIa 1 a 1 t t a 1 a j rt 1 a t It
m a r] t r i r I t r si t t | a t t | ra r ] t 1 t
j rt 1 a tIt s t tj t rIa1 t s m ar] t r t tIt r si tt ,
|t | a t | ari a a |t s j ai st s t r 1 t sarrt ||t m as
1 t j t r 1 i t r It s 1 t a r t t r }a r It rt 1 a t i 1 t ,
m t r t s 1 i tt rsi Ii ta1 t , 1 t j rt 1 a tIt s.
2. Precios Externos y Mercados de
Exportacin
| r a r m a r 1 t 1 t r 1 t | t s j a i st s st
t r t a t r Ira r t r a a Ia r| a i a , t s 1 t t i r, si r
t t m t rt i t i r It rr a t i t r a | , | t s r i t t | t s 1 t
j rt t i t s | a t t r I rt r I a r j rt 1 a t I t rt s
t t r sa m i 1 t rt s t sI a r 1 a 1 t s j t r | a s
t t r 1 i t i t r t s j rt j i a s t i r It rr a s 1 t t a 1 a
t tt r t m i a, t st a, 1 t j t r 1 t r Iar It 1 t sa s
IatIt rt s t sIra tIa ra|t s tt m t tt a r Ia ra|t s.
|r tam | i t , t r a r m a r 1 t ] |t | a|i ta1 t |t s
j rt t i t s i r I t rr t s 1 t a r a t t t r t m i a ,
j arIi ta |arm t r It |t s rt |aIi tt s a sa s | i t r t s
Irar sa| |t s, 1 t j t r 1 t r t r Ia t rIt m t 1 i 1 a 1 t
|t s j rt ti t s t tIt rr t s.
| a ar 1 t st | a| |a 1 t j rt ti t s t tIt rr t s st t sIa
| a t i t r 1 t rt I t rt r t i a a | t s t a | t rt s | a t
j t st t r |t s | i t r t s t i r sa m t s t r t | m t rta1 t
m a r 1 i a| t a sa s j rt ti t s 1 t Irar satti t r ,
I a m | i t r 1 t r t m i r a 1 t s j rt t i t s
i r It rr ati t r a|t s.
| | j rt t i t i r It rr a t i t r a | 1 t |t s j rt 1 a t It s
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|t s t s 1 t ] rar rt |t tar ti a j ara
|a a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a |t t a | 1 t a r a t t t r t m i a
j t | a t 1 a a| i t rIa. i t sIt t tj t ri m t r Ia a r a
tari ati t r j t si Ii ta, i r tt r Ii tara a a r a m at r
j rt 1 a t t i t r |t t a |. 1 Irt rt |t t a r It j a ra |a
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a st ra t | j rt ti t i r It rr ati t r a| 1 t
| t s i r sa m t s, j a rI i t a | a rm t r I t t | 1 t |
t | a i j am i t r It It tr t |t ] i tt , 1 a1 t t | taratIt r
i m j t rIa 1 t r 1 t | | i |t . | r a a m t r It t r t |
j rt ti t 1 t |t s i r sa m t s i m j t rIa1 t s, t t r t |
t t sI t 1 t | t rt 1 i I t j a ra I i r a r t i a r sa
a1 | a i si ti t r , j a t 1 t ] t r t rar a r i r trt m t r It
6 Vase este concepto en Deveraux y Engel (2002).
7 Una asociacin privada como Chilealimentos, que en su sitio web de diciembre 2010 reconoce que hoy representamos
al cluster de los alimentos elaborados en Chile, es un buen instrumento para conseguir ventajas en los mercados
internacionales. Rol que tambin le compete a los agentes comercializadores en los mercados externos. El concepto
de cluster y sus implicancias puede revisarse en Porter (1998) y (2000).
!\ Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
t r |t s tt sIt s ast ti a1 t s a |a j rt 1 a tti t r |t ta|
| a t t rt si t r t t r a | ] a r a m t 1 i 1 a sa
tt m j t Ii Ii ti 1 a1 t r |t s m t rta1 t s t tIt rr t s.
| t s m t rt a 1 t s 1 t 1 t sI i r t 1 t t sI a s
t tj t rIati t r t s sa s tt r sa m i 1 t rt s Ii r a|t s
st r 1 t t i I a | i m j t rI a r t i a j a ra | a
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a r ati t r a|, j a t s | | i |t st t ri t r Ia
a j ai st s | |t | a t s 1 t j ai st s 1 t sarrt ||a1 t s
tt r a|It i r ] rt st j t r taj i Ia. | t r si 1 t rar 1 t
|t s | a| i It s 1 t tt m j ra t | r i tt | 1 t i r ] rt st
1 t |t s t t r sa m i 1 t rt s, |t s j rt 1 a t It s st
j a t 1 t r 1 i t i 1 i r t r . j rt 1 a t It s t t t Ii t t s
litche t tt r sa m t t tasi t r a| , j rt 1 a tIt s 1 t
t sj t ti a|i 1 a1 1 t a|It ta|t r j rt 1 a tIt s 1 t
tt r sa m t m asi tt tt m j ra | a| i Ia a| . |sIt s
j rt 1 a tIt s j a t 1 t r tam | i ar 1 t a | i tati t r ,
st ] a r |a t It rIa |a j t |i Ii ta 1 t j rt ti t s | a t
a 1 t j I t r | t s sa j t rm t rt a 1 t s. | r I rt | a s
t a ra t I t ri sI i t a s I t r 1 t r t i a s | a t t sI t s
m t rt a 1 t s | a r j rt st r Ia 1 t t r t | a |Ii m t
Ii t m j t , 1 t sIatar |t s tam | i t s t r |t s | a| i It s
1 t tt r sa m t | ati a a r a 1 i t Ia m as sar a t |
aa m t r It 1 t |a 1 t m ar 1 a 1 t j rt 1 a tIt s |i sIt s
j ara st rti r t j rt -j rt j ara1 t s. t rt tt m i t r 1 a
t a m j |i r a t a | a |i 1 a 1 t t r |a s r t rm a s 1 t
ta|i 1 a1 |as t ti ] t r ti as 1 t j rt 1 a tIt s sar t s,
t r |t s | a t st j a t 1 a aj |i tar t r ta a|| a i t r
m t m t r I t | a I ra t a | i | i 1 a 1 1 t | j rt t t st
j rt 1 a t Ii tt , i r 1 a sIri a | t t m t rt i a |, j a ra
i 1 t r Ii Ii t a r t j t rIa r a m t r It a r t t t r Ia a |
j a r It 1 t ri t s] t . t att r st }a Iam | i t r |t ] rar
a t a t r1 t s 1 t t j t rIa r i 1 a 1 , rt ] a |a ri 1 a 1
j rt t i t s t t r | a s ] ra r 1 t s t a 1 t r a s 1 t
m t rta1 t s | a t | ar t r Ira1 t a 1 t m i r ar t r |a
1 i sIri | a t i t r 1 t j rt 1 a t It s a |i m t r Ia ri t s
1 | ||k I11\ .
3. Aranceles y Barreras No Arancelarias
k m | t s, arar tt |t s | arrt ras r t arar tt |ari as,
st r t sIi j a |ati t r t s t ri t r Ia1 as a |i m i Iar t |
tt m t rti t i r It rr ati t r a|.
|| arar tt | tt r sIi Ia t a r i m j a t sIt | a t st
1 t | t j a] ar j t r tt r tt j It 1 t i m j t rIati t r t
t tj t rIati t r 1 t | i t r t s. | a t 1 t st r 1 t | Ii j t
ad-valorem si st t t j rt sa t t m t a r
j t rt t r I a } t 1 t | t a | t r 1 t | t s | i t r t s, t
t sj t t i Ii t t , si st t sIa | | t t t t t m t a r a
tar Ii 1 a1 1 t It rm i r a1 a a j a] ar j t r a r i 1 a1 1 t
j t st t tt |a m t r . |t s arar tt |t s st aj |i tar
tt m a r m t r It a |as i m j t rIati t r t s, tt r t | Ii r
1 t j rt It ] t r |t s r t ] t ti t s, |a a] ri ta |Ia ra |a
m a r t 1 t t | ra 1 t a r j a i s t t r I ra | a
t t m j t I t r t i a 1 t t I rt s j a i st s. | t r | t s
IraIa1 t s 1 t |i | rt tt m t rti t |a ] |t | a|i tati t r
1 t |t s m t rta1 t s, |as Iasas arar tt |ari as | ar
t a i 1 t t t r sIa r It Ia t rIt m t r It a r i t t |
m a r 1 i a|.
|t s ar] a m t r It s t r Iatt r 1 t |t s arar tt |t s 1 t
i m j t rIati t r | ar si 1 t Irt s. a 1 t It r sa 1 t |a
i r 1 a sI ri a r a t i t r a | , | m t t a r i sm t 1 t
tt m j t r sati t r j t r t | | t t| t 1 t | a t |a m ar t
1 t t | ra 1 t t Irt s j ai st s st a m as | araIa, t
1 t It r sa a r It |a s sa | tt r t i t r t s 1 t t Irt s
j ai st s. |a ta|i 1 t t 1 t t sIt s ar] a m t r It s t s
t a t sIi t r a | |t . | r ] t r t ra |, |t s a ra r t t |t s
t ri ] i r ar i r t Ii ti t r ti a t tt r t m i ta, a r a ] rar
j t r1 i 1 a j a ra |t s t t r sa m i 1 t rt s, t st a st s
i r ] rt st s a ra r t t | a ri t s j a ra t | I i st t
| t r t I i t i t s t t I ra j a ra a r t s j t t t s
j rt 1 a tIt rt s r ati t r a|t s.
| t r t Irt |a1 t , |as | arrt ras r t arar tt |ari as
st r m t 1 i 1 a s | a t a 1 t j Ia r |t s ] t | i t rr t s
j ara rt sIri r ] i r |as i m j t rIati t r t s, 1 i It rt r It s
1 t | t s a ra r t t | t s. | r I rt t | | a s t sI a r | a s
j rt | i | i ti t r t s, |as t ti ] t r ti as sar i Iari as t
tt rIi Ii ta1 t s t sj t ti a|t s, |t s rt | a t ri m i t r It s
m t 1 i t am | i t r Ia|t s, t sj t ti a|m t r It si t sIt s
st r t |t ta1 t s, |as rt sIri tti t r t s ta ar Ii IaIi tas
t a t Ia s , | a s | i t t r t i a s t a a | | a i t r t Ira
m t 1 i 1 a | a t |i m i It t | tt m t rti t t r Irt j ai st s.
|a i m j t si ti t r 1 t a r a rt sIri tti t r a| i r ] rt st
1 t j rt 1 a t It s a ] ri t t |a s a |t s m t rt a 1 t s
t t I t rr t s j rt t t t a ra a r a a m t r I t t r | a
tar Ii 1 a1 1 t m aIt ri a j ri m a 1 i sj t r i | |t a r i tt |
i r It rr t -t It rIa t t j a r 1 i 1 a j t r sa |1 t s 1 t
t t j t rIa t i t r t a st a t a s t r t t r t r a 1 a s a
| sIa 1 t s | r i 1 t s 1 1 t r m t 1 i 1 a m a
m t r t r |as m ar tar as tt r m t rIt |i r a I1 1,
t r Irt t Irt s -, aIt tIar 1 t r t ] aIi tam t r It a|
!! Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
t tj t rIa1 t r Ira Ii tt |a, j t rt j t si Ii tam t r It a|
j rt t i t m t r t r 1 t |a m a It ri a j ri m a | a t
j a t 1 t st r a1 | a i ri 1 a j t r |a a] rt i r 1 a sIri a.
| t s a t a t r1 t s t t m t rt i a |t s Ii rm a 1 t s j t r
| | i |t | ar j t rm i Ii 1 t i r 1 t rri | ar 1 t | arrt ras
1 t i r I t rt a m | i t j a ra | a a ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a
1 t s] ra ta t i t r a ra r t t |a ri a ] ra 1 a a | . | t rt ,
tt m t i r 1 i ta | ratt I1 1 , si t r 1 t |t s j ai st s
1 t sa rrt | | a 1 t s 1 t | | t m i sIt ri t r t rIt | t s
m at rt s tt m j t Ii 1 t rt s j rt 1 a tIi tt s , a |a
tt t, |t s j ri r ti j a|t s i m j t rIa1 t rt s 1 t t sIt s
j rt 1 a tIt s st |t tt m j rar j rt 1 a tIt s m a
tt m j t Ii Ii tt s t r ta ar It a tt sIt s, ta|i 1 a1
t j t rIa r i 1 a 1 , st rt | a i t rt 1 t t sIa t rtt s
a1 i ti t r a|t s j ara |t ] rar m t }t rt s tt r 1 i ti t r t s
1 t attt st t r t st s m t rta1 t s, a | a t t sIar
| asIar It j rt It ] i 1 t s sa | si 1 i a1 t s.
4. Materias Primas
t | t | | a m a a si a | t s | i t r t s si r m a t r
t |a| t rati t r | a t st i r tt rj t rar t r |a j ri m t ra
Iast 1 t a r a Iat r a i r 1 a sIri a| j ara sa j t sIt ri t r
j rt t t sa m i t r It . t r | a s t a ra t It ri sIi t a s
It tr i tas 1 t | | i t r Ii r a| | a t st ta a j rt 1 a ti r
|as | a t 1 t It rm i r ar sa rt | a t ri m i t r It 1 t
m aIt ri as j ri m as t i r sa m t s j t r |t ] t r t ra|
taj i Ia| Ira| a}t . |a m aIt ri a j ri m a j a t 1 t
It r t r a r a i r ti 1 t r ti a i m j t rIar It t r t | tt sIt
Ii r a| 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t a r | i t r .
|a i r ti 1 t r ti a t r t | tt sIt Ii r a| 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r
1 t j t r 1 t ra 1 t ta ar Ia m aIt ri a j ri m a 1 t a r a
ti t rIa ta|i 1 a1 st rt | a i t ra j ara j rt 1 a ti r a r a
a r i 1 a1 1 t j rt 1 a tIt j rt tt sa1 t . | t | t sIa 1 i t
1 t | 1 K k M k 1 1 st j a t 1 t 1 t 1 a t i r |a
t a r] a 1 t m a I t ri a j ri m a a ] ri t t | a j t r
j rt 1 a tIt Ii r a| j rt tt sa1 t . |r j rt m t 1 i t |a
a ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a | t rI t I ra I i t t | a 1 1 1 - 1 1
rt | a i ri t \ , ! | i |t s 1 t | t rIa |i t a s Ira Ia s
Irt stas j ara t | It r t r a r | i |t 1 t j rt 1 a tIt
j rt tt sa1 t . M as t sj t ti Ii tam t r It , t sIa tar] a
t s 1 t t , ! 1 j a ra |a j a sIa t t r t t r Ira 1 a 1 t
It m aIt , 1 t I,II j ara |t s }a ] t s tt r ] t |a1 t s
t t r t t r I ra 1 t , 1 t t , ! \ j a ra | t s
1 t s| i 1 raIa1 t s, 1 t I,I\ j ara |t s tt r ] t |a1 t s,
1 t , 1 j ara |as tt r st rtas 1 t 1,11 j ara |a
j a |j a 1 t Ira Ia. |r It rm i r t s tt m j araIi tt s,
] ra r j a rIt 1 t |t s j rt 1 a t It s t t r ] t |a 1 t s
rt | a i t rt a r a m a I t ri a j ri m a 1 t m a t r
ta|i 1 a1 .
| t s asj t tIt s rt |t tar It s 1 t |a m aIt ri a j ri m a
a ] ri t t | a j a ra | a a ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a st r | a
t sI a t i t r a | i 1 a 1 1 t sa t t st t | a sa
j t rt ti | i |i 1 a1 . || j rt 1 a tIt a] ri tt |a Ii t r t , j t r
|t ] t r t ra |, a r j t ri t 1 t 1 t t t st t | a | a t
j a t 1 t t tIt r 1 t rst 1 t s1 t tari as st m ar as a
j t tt s m t st s. Y 1 t | t , a |a tt t, st r j rt tt sa1 t
t r Irt stt , |t | a t t r m a t| t s tast s sa j t r t
| att r|t a |as j t tas | t ras t 1 i as |a t ] t 1 t sa
arri | t a |a j |ar Ia. |sIt j t ri t 1 t 1 t tt st t| a
j a t 1 t a | a r] a rst t a | I i t a r 1 t 1 i It rt r I t s
tari t 1 a1 t s, a|] a r as j rt -i r 1 a sIri a|t s, a r as
It m j rar as t Iras Iar1 i as , t r a|] a r t s tast s,
a|m att r ar 1 t j arIt 1 t |a m i sm a t r tam aras
Iri ] t ri Ii tas. k a r asi , t | I|a }t 1 t m aIt ri a j ri m a
j a t 1 t st r | a sI a r I t i rrt ] a | a r. i r a r a
j | a r i I i t a t i t r t ri t r I a 1 a a 1 i t t rsi I i t a r
j rt 1 a tIt s j t r |t Iar It m aIt ri as j ri m as, |a
j | a r I a a ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a | j a t 1 t I t rm i r a r
Ira| a}ar 1 t st |t j arIt 1 t | a1 t .
| a a ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a I i t r t 1 i It rt r I t s
m t 1 a|i 1 a1 t s j ara a| asIt tt rst 1 t m aIt ri a
j ri m a , t r Irt t ||a s |a j rt 1 a t t i t r j rt j i a
i r It ] rati t r tt rIi ta| | ati a aIras t upstream,
|t s t t r Ira It s t t t r1 i r a t i t r t t rIi t a | , |a
tt m j ra t r j |ar Ia |t s a] ri ta |It rt s ||t tar sa
tt st t| a a| j rt ti t 1 t j i tarra t | m t rta1 t
a| i t rIt .
t ] a r 1 | | | k I 1 1 \ , a |rt 1 t 1 t r 1 t a r t s
. 1 1 1 a ] ri t a |It rt s st rt |a t i t r a r t t r |a
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a | t rIt Ira Ii tt |a. 1 a ta |Ii tt s
ar a a|t s 1 t | t rIa|i tas j ara |a a] rt i r 1 a sIri a,
m t 1 i ar It tt r IraIt s j t r It m j t ra1 a, si t r 1 t
t | m as i m j t rIar It t | 1 t | It m aIt i r 1 a sIri a|.
1 a t Irt s ta |Ii tt s j t rm ar t r It s 1 t Ira Ia|t s
| t rIa|i tas t ri t r Ia1 t s 1 t j rt It rt r ti a a |a
a ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a I ra m | a t sa , t sj a rra ] t s,
1 a ratr t s tt r st rtt rt s, ti ra t |as t a rt j t as,
1 am astt , t It. . |t s 1 t starIt s 1 t t tj t rIati t r
1 t Ira Ia Irt sta i r t|a t r m ar tar as j ara }a ] t
!t Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
1 t s| i 1 raIa1 t , a ta 1 t m t sa j ara j asas
}a ] t s tt r tt r Ira1 t s, tt rt tas, j t ras, | i i s
t Irt s.
| t a r j ri m t r t sI a 1 i t 1 t | sa | st t I t r
| t rIi tt |a, rt a|i ta1 t j t r | K |-1 | ||k I1 1 ,
st j a t 1 t r 1 t sI a t a r | a s si ] a i t r I t s
t a ra t I t ri sI i t a s. a a t a r t t t r | t s
rt r 1 i m i t r It s a r i Ia ri t s, | t | m t rt a 1 t
i r I t rr t t s t | j ri r t i j a | 1 t sI i r t 1 t | a
j rt 1 a tti t r | t rIi tt |a |as t tj t rIati t r t s,
sa|tt a r as j t tas t ttt j ti t r t s, r t aj art tt r
tt m t a r a a|It rr aIi ta 1 t tt m t rti a|i tati t r
i m j t rIar It a r i tt | 1 t |t s a] ri ta |It rt s, t |as
t sj t ti t s | a t i r 1 i tar a] ri ta |Ia ra 1 t tt r IraIt
st r t | a }t , a |t a t | t Ia , a j i t , a rtt }a tt r1 t ,
tt | t ||a, t| t t|t , t sj arra] t |t t| a ] a, 1 |a
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a, tt m t 1 t sIi r t i r m t 1 i aIt 1 t
|a j rt 1 a tti t r X 1 t t tj |t Iati t r t s , Ii t r t
rt |t tar ti a j ara t | t| t t|t , t sj arra] t , a}t
j i m i t r It , t r |t s 1 t m as tast s t sIa t s m t r t r,
t t | a a It t t r sa m t t s m a i m j t rIa r It
ta ar 1 t st IraIa 1 t j t | a t 1 t s j rt 1 a tIt rt s,
I | a}a aj |i tati t r 1 t It tr t |t ] i a 1 t ri t ] t , ]
t | t rt 1 i I t 1 t t j t ra t i t r sa j t ra a | 1 t
i r t t rsi t r , | | t s I rt s I a t I t rt s m a s
|i m i Iar It s 1 t t sIa atIi ti 1 a1 st r |a Ia|Ia 1 t
asi sIt r ti a It tr i ta, taj i Ia| t Ii r ar ti am i t r It ,
ri t ] t .
|r t | tast 1 t |a j rt 1 a tti t r Ira Ii tt |a t ta rrt
a|] t si m i |ar a |a a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|, t r t | st r Ii 1 t
| a t Iam | i t r st t ri t r Ia a t tj t rIati t r t s. i r
t m | ar] t , j t r ratt r t s It tr i tas rt |aIi tas a|
] ra1 t 1 t m a1 a rt t ta|i | rt t ti ] i 1 t s t r |t s
m t rta1 t s i r It rr ati t r a|t s, t r Irt t Iras, a r
j t rtt r Ia}t 1 t 1 i t| a j rt 1 a tti t r r t j t 1 ra
st r t tj t rIa1 a. |sIt st sa m a a| | t t| t 1 t | a t
t r a | ] a r a s It m j t ra 1 a s st ra i m j t si | | t
tt r 1 t r t | It Ia| t tj t rIa| |t j t r t | sa r] i m i t r It
1 t r a t tas | arrt ras j rt It tti t r i sIas t r |t s
m t rta1 t s i r It rr ati t r a|t s. |a t ] t , |a t It rIa
| t rIt Ira Ii tt |a i r It rr a a 1 i sj t si ti t r 1 t |t s
t t r sa m i 1 t rt s t r I rt st t 1 t | a
a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a | a t 1 a ra t t r It rm a 1 a , t r
j ri m t r |a ] ar, j t r |t | a t r t st t tj t rIa. |r
t sIt st r Ii 1 t , |a a] rt i r 1 a sIri a st tt r sIi Ia t
t r a r a a |It rr a Ii t a i r It rt sa r It j a ra |t s
j rt 1 a tIt rt s | a t ] t r t rar Ira Ia Irt sta r t
t tj t rIa| |t . k t sIt 1 t | t sa m arst |t t | | a t
j a rIt 1 t |a a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a , 1 t t t r ] t |a 1 t s
j ri r t i j a | m t r It , Ira | a } t t t r j rt 1 a t It s
a] ri tt |as 1 t t tj t rIati t r . | r i ti a|m t r It |t s
j rt 1 a tIt rt s a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|t s tt m j rarar sa
m a I t ri a j ri m a t i a j rt t i t s t m t rt a 1 t .
| a ar 1 t t sIi m t r | a t |as tt r 1 i ti t r t s a||i r t
|t s st r tt r Ia}t sas | a starar t Iras Ia t r It s 1 t
a| asIt ti m i t r It , tt m t |a aa It j rt 1 a tti t r t
|a a] ri ta |Ia ra 1 t tt r IraIt .
5. Capacidad Ociosa y Capacidad Instalada
|a taj ati 1 a1 t ti t sa rt j rt st r Ia a| a t ||a j arIt
1 t | t s Ia t I t rt s I i } t s t sI ra t I a ra | t s
t j t ra Ii tt s 1 t |a t m j rt sa | a t r t t sIa r
si t r 1 t a Ii |i ta1 t s t r |a j rt 1 a tti t r . | a t 1 t
st r t tj rt sa1 a tt m t |a 1 i It rt r ti a t r Irt |a
j rt 1 a t t i t r m a t i m a j t It r t i a | | a t st
j a t 1 t a|tar tar tt r |t s rt ta rst s 1 t | a t st
1 i sj t r t |a j rt 1 a tti t r rt a|m t r It |t ] ra1 a.
|sIt | a| |a 1 t a r a taj ati 1 a1 r t a Ii |i ta1 a,
sa | a Ii |i t a 1 a , t 1 t a r a j rt j t rt i t r 1 t |a
taj ati 1 a1 i r sIa|a1 a 1 t |a t m j rt sa | a t r t
t sIa si t r 1 t a sa1 a.
| r a t m j rt sa Ii t r t t a j a t i 1 a 1 t t i t sa si
j rt 1 a tt tt r a r tt sIt m ar] i r a| i r It ri t r a|
t t sIt a r i Ia ri t , 1 t It rm a Ia | | a t j a t 1 t
rt 1 a t i r t sI t a | I i m t a a m t r I a r 1 t | a
j rt 1 a t t i t r . k si , t | t tt t st 1 t t a j a t i 1 a 1
j a t 1 t t i sa a |i t a rst t t m t |a t a r Ii 1 a 1 1 t
j rt 1 a tti t r a1 i ti t r a| | a t j t rm i Ii ri a rt 1 a ti r
t | tt sIt a r i Iari t a| m i r i m t . |r t | tast 1 t |a
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a t ri t r Ia1 a a |as t tj t rIati t r t s,
t | j ri r ti j a| IatIt r | a t t tj |i tari a t | t ttt st
8 A esto habra que sumarle la agricultura de contrato (en la tabla viene el tomate consumo fresco, pero no el tomate
industrial, por ejemplo) y la posibilidad de que la agroindustria compre en el mercado interno. El Glosario que aparece
al final de la publicacin no define el mercado interno.
!I Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
1 t taj ati 1 a1 i r sIa|a1 a t s |a t sIati t r a|i 1 a1
t i rrt ] a |a ri 1 a 1 t r |a rt t t j t i t r 1 t a r a
m a It ri a j ri m a j t rt t i | |t . k |a s t m j rt sa s
Iam j t tt |t s rt sa |Iara tt r tt r i t r It j rt 1 a ti r
a m a t i m a t a j a t i 1 a 1 si t a r a a t a m a | a r
i r tt r Iari t s | a t r t ta t r Iar tt r a r a tt r Ia
rt |aIi tam t r It ast ] a ra1 a a r i tt | i r It rr t
t tIt rr t Ii t r t r It t| a 1 t tt r ti m i t r It .
|r a r am | i t r It tt m j t Ii Ii tt t | t ttt st 1 t
t a j a t i 1 a 1 I i t r 1 t a 1 t sa j a rt t t r t r t |
Ii t m j t . | r tt rIi r m as 1 t |t | a t st rt | a i t rt
t r i r sIa|ati t r t s ] t r t ra i r t Ii ti t r ti a t r |a
asi ] r ati t r 1 t rt ta rst s t i r m t ti |i ta j arIt 1 t
|a taj ati 1 a1 j rt 1 a tIi ta 1 t a r a t m j rt sa,
j a 1 i t r 1 t rt j rt st r Iar|t a t ||a a r tt sIt Ii }t
i m j t rIa r It .
1
| t s1 t t Ira j t rsj t t Ii t a , t |
t ttt st 1 t taj ati 1 a1 j rt 1 a ti 1 t j t r st | rt -
i r tt rsi t r t r i r sIa|ati t r t s t | a i j t s j a t 1 t
st r ti sIt tt m t a r a | arrt ra 1 t t r Ira1 a -a r
1 i sa a si t t - j a ra t | i r ] rt st 1 t r a t t a s
t m j rt sas a |a i r 1 a sIri a. |sIt t s, j a t 1 t st r
j arIt 1 t a r j |ar m as t m t r t s 1 t |i | t ra1 t
| a t tt r It m j |t tt sIt s | a r 1 i 1 t s. | ara a r a
m at r 1 i sta si t r st | rt t sIt j a r It tt ar st |t s
Ira| a}t s 1 t j t r tt 1II , | i ti I 11 , | a |t
t Irt s 1! , M arIi r I11I .
1 I ra a | I t rr a I i t a t s | a t t | t t t t st 1 t
taj ati 1 a1 j a t 1 a 1 t | t rst a a r m a| ta|ta |t .
|a Ia|Ia 1 t j rt t tti t r t s att rIa1 as st | rt t |
Ia Ia rt t 1 t ti si t r t s It m a1 as t r tt r It tIt s
1 t i r t t rI i 1 a m | rt , t st a sa i r It rm a t i t r
1 i sj t r i | | t t i r It rm a t i t r a si m t I ri t a ,
j t 1 ri ar t tj |i tar | a t r a j arIt 1 t | j rt | |t m a.
|a taj ati 1 a1 t ti t sa Iam | i t r st rt |ati t r a
tt r t | ti t|t t tt r t m i tt . | a ar 1 t st j rt tt a r
t i t | t t t t r t m i t t I a t t ra | | t , t t r a r a
1 t m ar 1 a t r t tj ar si t r , st j rt t tIar r i tt |t s
1 t j rt 1 a t t i t r 1 t rt t a rst s t m j |t a 1 t s
m a t rt s | a t t r |t s t i t |t s t t t r t m i t t s
1 t sI a t t ra | | t s. | r t sI t s a | I i m t s st
i r trt m t r Iar |t s r i tt |t s 1 t 1 t st m j |t t 1 t
t a j a t i 1 a 1 t s j rt 1 a t Ii t a s si r a Ii |i t a r. | s
| t ] i t t i r t | a i r t r t sI a m t 1 i t i t r 1 t | a
taj ati 1 a1 t ti t sa a| a t ||a j rt j t rti t r 1 t |
I a t I t r I ra | a } t r t a I i | i t a 1 a t r | a | t rt s
j rt 1 a tIi tas, t sIt t s, |as | t ras 1 t Ii t m j t | a t
|t s Ira| a}a1 t rt s tt r tt r IraIt r t 1 t 1 i tar a
1 i t| as Iart as.
| t | ra t t I 1 1 st 1 t 1 a t t | a t | a | ri a
a t I a a | m t r I t a r a t a j a t i 1 a 1 t t i t sa
i m j t rIa r It t r |a a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a Ira Ii t t |a .
I 1 X t r t t r ] t | a 1 t s, 1 1 X t r
1 t s| i 1 ra I a 1 t s, \ 1 X t r } a ] t s a r
j t rtt r Ia}t | asIar It m t r t r t r tt r st rtas,
t sIt , tt r si 1 t rar 1 t |as ti Iras 1 t | | aIasIrt
k ] rt i r 1 a sIri a| 1 t | I11 , j t rt Iam | i t r |as
i r tt rsi t r t s rt a |i t a 1 a s t r i r Ira t sIra t Ia ra
j rt 1 a tIi ta t r |a a |Ii m a 1 t ta1 a.
t asa m t | a t a m at r ] ra1 t 1 t taj ati 1 a1
i r sIa|a1 a t ti t sa t r a r ra | rt , m at rt s st rar
sa s t t sI t s a r i I a ri t s 1 t j rt 1 a t t i t r
m t r t rt s sa s m ar] t r t s 1 t rt r Ia| i |i 1 a1 . i r
t m | ar] t , t | t stt r ari t r t st ra Iar m a|t si
|t s j rt ti t s i r It rr ati t r a|t s st r ratt r a| |t s
t si st t sIi m a | a t |a m i sm a st rt i ra j a ra
sa I i sIa t t r a r a m a t r 1 t m a r 1 a t r | t s
j t ri t 1 t s t t r i 1 t rt s t a j a t i 1 a 1 1 t
trt ti m i t r It 1 t |a j rt 1 a tti t r si r It r t r | a t
rt a|i tar r a t tas i r tt rsi t r t s t r i r sIa|ati t r t s.
6. Economas de Escala
|as t tt r t m i as 1 t t sta|a sa t |t r |i ] arst a |as
taratIt ri sIi tas It tr t |t ] i tas 1 t a r a t m j rt sa,
|as ta a|t s st Ira1 a tt r t r a r a 1 i sm i r a ti t r
1 t | tt sIt a r i Iari t a |ar] t j |att tt r It rm t t |
tt |a m t r 1 t j rt 1 a t t i t r t 1 t r t ] t t i t s
aa m t r Ia. |sIt t ta rrt ta ar 1 t t | i r trt m t r It
j t rt t r Ia a | 1 t |a j rt 1 a t t i t r t t t t 1 t a |
i r t rt m t r It j t rt t r Ia a | 1 t |t s i r sa m t s
9 Las instalaciones no utilizadas seguirn requiriendo de mantenimiento para no deteriorarse, se debern seguir pagando
las cuotas pactadas en el banco por la adquisicin de infraestructura, sea que produzca o no a capacidad plena, y se
enfrentar tambin un costo de oportunidad por la parte sin utilizar.
rt r 1 i m i t r It s trt ti t r It s a t sta|a . k si , |t s
t t sI t s I t I a | t s a a m t r I a r m t r t s | a t
j rt j t rt i t r a | m t r I t a | a a m t r I t 1 t |
j rt 1 a tIt t 1 t |as tt r Ias, asa m i t r 1 t Ii }t t |
j rt ti t 1 t | | i t r , |t s tt sIt s a r i Iari t s st
rt 1 a tt r . |ara t sIt t s r t tt sari t | a t t | j rt ti t
1 t | t s i r sa m t s r t a a m t r I t
si ] r i Ii taIi tam t r It ta ar 1 t st i r trt m t r It sa
1 t m a r 1 a . | a j ri r t i j a | I a t r I t 1 t t sI t
It r t m t r t rt si 1 t t r | a m a t r
t sj t t i a |i t a t i t r 1 t |t s i r sa m t s t a a r 1 t
aa m t r Ia |a t sta|a 1 t t j t rati t r t s 1 t a r a
t m j rt sa. |as t tt r t m i as 1 t t sta|a Iam | i t r
st j a t 1 t r t r It r 1 t r tt m t |t s a| t rrt s 1 t
tt sIt s ast ti a1 t s a| Iam a1 t 1 t |a atIi ti 1 a1 .
| r ] t r t ra | , st j a t 1 t a t t ri ] a a r si a r a
t m j rt sa I i t r t t t t r t m i a s 1 t t st a | a
t | st rt a r 1 t | a rt | a t i t r t r Irt sa t t sIt
m ar] i r a| sa tt sIt a r i Iari t . | a ar 1 t | a
t t t r t m i a s 1 t t st a | a t | t t sIt a r i Ia ri t
1 i sm i r a t a| aa m t r Iar |a j rt 1 a tti t r , j t r
|t Ia r It , t | t t sIt m t 1 i t sa j t ra a | t t sIt
m ar] i r a|. |t tt r Irari t sa tt 1 t ta ar 1 t | a
1 t st tt r t m i as 1 t t sta|a, j a t s t r t sIt tast
t | tt sIt m ar] i r a| sa j t ra a| tt sIt a r i Iari t .
a j ri r t i j a | Ia t r It t s |a 1 i Ii t a |Ia 1 j a ra
a1 m i r i sIrar a r a atIi ti 1 a1 1 t ] rar Iam a1 t .
|r t It tIt , |as t m j rt sas j a t 1 t r i r ta rri r t r
i r t Ii t i t r t i a s 1 t ] t sIi t r si | a t st a | a 1 t
j rt 1 a tti t r trt tt st | rt m ar t ra.
1
|a i m j t rIar ti a 1 t |as t tt r t m i as 1 t t sta|a
t r | a a t I i t i 1 a 1 a ] ri t t | a t s t | a t t j a ra
1 t It rm i r ar |a Ia t r It 1 t a| asIt ti m i t r It 1 t
|a m aIt ri a j ri m a. |a j rt st r ti a 1 t t tt r t m i as
1 t t sta|a j a t 1 t i r tt r Ii tar a |a a] rt i r 1 a sIri a
a i r It ] rarst tt rIi ta|m t r It t a tt r IraIar sa
j rt ti si t r 1 t m aIt ri a j ri m a st |t tt r ] rar 1 t s
j rt 1 a t It rt s. | a a r 1 t t sIa s j a rt t t r r t
t t i sI i r, t j t t r a a r , t a a r 1 t | a
1 t st tt r t m i as 1 t t sta|a, |a a] rt i r 1 a sIri a st
tt ra i r tt r Ii ta1 a a a| asIt tt rst j t r m t 1 i t 1 t
tt r IraIt s tt r j t | a t 1 t s j rt 1 a tIt rt s.
7. I ntegracin Horizontal, I ntegracin
Vertical y Coordinacin Vertical
t t r Ii t r 1 t j t r i r It ] rati t r | t ri tt r Ia| |a
a1 | a i si ti t r 1 t a r a t m j rt sa, t |a Ia si t r 1 t
a r a t m j rt sa tt r t Ira, | a t tt m j i It t r sa
m i sm t st tIt r 1 t atIi ti 1 a1 t tt r t m i ta. ||
t | }t Ii tt | asi tt 1 t t sIt Ii j t 1 t i r It ] rati t r
tt r si sIt t r |a | a s| a t 1 a 1 t t tt r t m i as 1 t
t sta|a | a t j t rm i Iar rt 1 a ti r t | tt sIt a r i Iari t
1 t j rt 1 a tti t r . am | i t r st | a sta t | It r t r
a r m at r j t 1 t r 1 t m t rta1 t , rt 1 a ti t r 1 t t |
r a m t rt 1 t t m j rt sa s t t m j t I i 1 t ra s
t t i sIt r It s t r |a i r 1 a sIri a . 1 Irt t | }t Ii tt
j t rst ] a i 1 t t s rt a r i r |t s rt ta rst s r t tt sari t s
m artas, tt m j t It r ti as ] t rt r ti a|t s, attt st
a know-how t sj t t i a | i t a 1 t , t I t . j a ra
i r ] rt sar a r a t tas |i r t as 1 t r t ] t ti t s t a
r a t tt s m t rt a 1 t s, ] t t ] ra Ii t t s t r t , 1 t
m ar t ra m t r t s tt sIt sa. i r t m | ar] t , 1 t | t
t t r si 1 t ra rst | a t | a s I a si t r t s
a 1 | a i si t i t r t s 1 t t m j rt sa s j a t 1 t r
rt j rt st r Ia r a r j t |i ] rt j t It r t i a | j a ra |a
tt m j t It r ti a t r a r m t rta1 t , t r |a m t 1 i 1 a
| a t t ri ] i r t r t sIra t Ia ra s m t r t j t |i t a s t
m t r t j st r i tas.
| t r sa j arIt , |a i r It ] rati t r tt rIi ta| tt r si sIt
t r t | a a m t r It 1 t | r a m t rt 1 t j rt t t st s
rt a |i t a 1 t s j t r a r a t m j rt sa , |t s t a a |t s
j a t 1 t r st r | a t i a a 1 t | a r I t , t t m t | a
tt m t rti a|i tati t r 1 t | j rt 1 a tIt i r It ] rati t r
| ati a a1 t |ar It t downstream, t | ati a aIras,
tt m t |a j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t m aIt ri as j ri m as
] t r t rati t r 1 t i r sa m t s i r It ] rati t r | ati a
a Ira s t upstream . | sIt It m a | a rt t i | i 1 t
t t r si 1 t ra | |t a It r t i t r 1 t s1 t t | a rIi t a |t
j i t r t rt 1 t | t a st 1 1 I . 1 t rI a t sa
tt rst r I11t , a1 t m as 1 t 1 ar a r a rt ti si t r
a |a |i It raIa ra t tt r t m i ta t ti sIt r It st | rt t |
10 No se deben confundir las economas de escala con las economas de mbito, que son los ahorros en los costos
que una empresa obtiene al producir mltiples productos (diversificacin), utilizando las mismas instalaciones o
infraestructura. A stas tambin se les denomina economas de produccin conjunta.
j arIi ta |ar, t r ta t r Irar t ti 1 t r ti a a r i tt | 1 t
j |ar Ia | a t rt tt |a a r a Ia t rIt rt |ati t r t r Irt
i r It ] ra t i t r tt rIi t a | j rt 1 a t Ii t i 1 a 1 . | a
| i I t ra I a ra t t t r t m i t a a j t a t r It rm a
m a t ri I a ri a | a i 1 t a 1 t i r I t ] ra rst
t t rI i t a | m t r I t t t m t m t t a r i sm t 1 t
t I i t i t r t i a | a t rt 1 a t t | t s t t sI t s 1 t
Irar satti t r . |m t r s 11t a] rt ] a | a t t sIt
st Ira 1 a t t t r j rt t i t s m t r t rt s j a ra |a
m aIt ri a j ri m a. |t rt , t s Iam | i t r tt r si 1 t ra1 a
j t r m a t| t s tt m t a r a j ratIi ta m t r t j t |i ta.
| a i r It ] ra t i t r tt rIi t a | | a t i a a Ira s 1 t |a
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a r t Ii t r t st r Ii 1 t rt sj t tIt 1 t
a | a t | | t s t a | I i t t s ] t r t ra 1 t rt s 1 t
1 t st tt r t m i as 1 t t sta|a. | t r 1 a 1 t r 11t
I a m j t t t | a a t t r st } a t a a r 1 t t sI a s st
j rt sa m t r j t r |a a r i Ii tati t r 1 t atIi ti 1 a1 t s.
k tt m t ] |a t Irt s I111 t r ta t r Irar | a t | a
a r a m at r i r It ] rati t r tt rIi ta| t r j ai st s | a t
j t st t r m at rt s tt sIt s 1 t tt r IraIati t r
1 t sarrt ||t Ii r ar ti t rt , |t s | a t a sa tt t t sIar
m as i r It ] ra1 t s tt rIi ta|m t r It t r i r 1 a sIri as
taj i Ia| i r It r si tas.
| a t t t r1 i r a t i t r t t rIi t a | j a t 1 t st r a r
j rt t t st t t sI t st t r I t rm i r t s
t r] ar i tati t r a|t s tt sIt s 1 t tt t r1 i r ati t r ,
| t | a t 1 t j t r 1 t ra 1 t | r a m t rt 1 t
t t r Ira It s sa Ii j t |t ] i a , j t rt t s a r a
a | I t rr a I i t a 1 t m t r t r ri t s] t j a ra | a
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a.

|sIa t r ] t r t ra| rt It ri 1 a a |a
a] ri ta |Ia ra 1 t tt r IraIt , si sIt m a m t 1 i ar It t |
t a a | | a a ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a | t s j rt j t rt i t r a
i r sa m t s a |t s a] ri ta |It rt s, tt m t trt 1 i It ,
It rIi |i tar It s, st m i ||as asi sIt r ti a It tr i ta, a
t a m | i t 1 t 1 t rt t | t s t tt |a si t t s st | rt |a
tt st t| a rt sa |Iar It . |sIt si sIt m a st a Ii |i ta
| asIar It , j t rt t s m as Iati | ti sa a|i tar|t t r
a | a t | | t s t a | I i t t s ] t r t ra 1 t rt s 1 t
1 t st tt r t m i as 1 t t sta|a. |r t sIt s tast s st ra
m t }t r tt r tt r i r tt r a] ri ta |It rt s t sj t ti Ii tt s,
t t t r a st t i a t i t r t s 1 t j rt 1 a t I t rt s
m t r t rt s t t sIt s 1 t t t t r1 i r a t i t r , j a ra
1 i sm i r a i r | a i r t t rI i 1 a m | rt st | rt | t s
tt |a m t r t s a tt st t| ar, 1 ar 1 t |t a sa tt t a r a
a|It rr aIi ta rt r Ia| |t a |as a r i 1 a1 t s a] rari as
1 t | a}a sa j t rIi ti t . | r t }t m j |t t|asi tt t r
t sIt st r Ii 1 t t s |a j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t It m aIt j ara
a st i r 1 a sIri a|, st ] a r atrt 1 i Ia t m i t 11 .
| r a j t rsj t tIi ta tt m j |t m t r Iari a |a aj t rIa
|a t tt r t m i a 1 t |t s tt sIt s 1 t Irar satti t r ,
| a t tt rrt sj t r 1 t a a r a ram a 1 t r Irt 1 t |a
r a t t a t t t r t m i a i r sIi Ia t i t r a |. | t s1 t t |
j a r It 1 t t i sIa 1 t |a Ira r sa t t i t r , | a t
i r tt |a tra t r t sIt tast a 1 t s atIt rt s, st tIt r
a] ri tt |a a] rt i r 1 a sIri a, wi ||i am st r 1!
i 1 t r Ii Ii t a Irt s a Iri | a It s 1 t |a m i sm a . |a
I rt t a t r t i a , | a i r t t rI i 1 a m | rt | a
t sj t t i Ii t i 1 a 1 1 t |t s a t Ii tt s, si t r 1 t t sIa
a | I i m a | a 1 t m a t r i m j t rI a r t i a .
I
| a
t t r t | a si t r t s | a t t t r | a } t r i t t | 1 t
t sj t ti Ii ti 1 a1 1 t atIi tt s a|It s r i tt |t s 1 t
i r tt rIi 1 a m | rt , |a Irar satti t r ti a m t rta1 t
st ri a |a m a s t Ii t i t r It . | r |a m t 1 i 1 a | a t
aa m t r Ia t | r i tt | 1 t t sj t ti Ii ti 1 a1 1 t atIi tt s,
|a i r It ] rati t r tt rIi ta| i r It rr a|i tati t r 1 t |as
t t It rr a |i 1 a 1 t s st t a t t r t i rIi t r 1 t t r |a
m t } t r t j t i t r j a ra m i r i m i t a r t t sI t s,
i r t|a i 1 t s |t s 1 t Irar satti t r . |t s tt r IraIt s,
t t m t |t s 1 t ri t a 1 t s 1 t |a t t t r1 i r a t i t r
tt rIi ta|, st |t st r j t si | |t s t r t stt r ari t s 1 t
| a}a i r tt rIi 1 a m | rt , aj t ] t a |a |t rt sj t It
1 t | t s t t r I ra I t s, a | I a I rt t a t r t i a 1 t
Irar satti t r t s r i tt |t s m t 1 i t s a a|It s 1 t
t sj t ti Ii ti 1 a1 1 t atIi tt s wi ||i am st r 111 .
8. Productividad y Eficiencia
| t r j rt 1 a tIi ti 1 a1 m t 1 i a 1 t a r a t m j rt sa st
t r Ii t r 1 t t | ra1 i t t r Irt t | j rt 1 a tIt t | It r i 1 t
r a m t ra 1 t r | t s i r sa m t s t rt t a rst s
a Ii |i ta1 t s t r t | 1 t r t m i r a1 t r . |s, j t r |t
Iar It , a r a m t 1 i 1 a Ii si ta rt |aIi ta a |t s | i t r t s
t st rti ti t s | a t j rt 1 a tt |a t m j rt sa. || ta|t r
11 Vase Valenzuela (1997). Una copia puede solicitarse a luis.valenzuela@utem.cl.
12 El concepto especificidad de los activos (fsica, geogrfica o temporal) se refiere al grado en que los activos estn
especialmente diseados o localizados para un determinado uso o usuario.
t1 Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
| a t I t m t t sI t ra 1 i t j t 1 ra t a ri a r j t r
tam | i t s t r |a tar Ii 1 a1 tt m j t si ti t r 1 t |t s
i r sa m t s a Ii |i t a 1 t s, j t r t a m | i t s | a t st
j rt 1 a t t a r t r |a t Ii t i t r t i a 1 t | j rt t t st
j rt 1 a t I i t t , j t r t a m | i t s | a t j a 1 i t rt
t tj t ri m t r Iar t | t r It rr t 1 t r 1 t st j rt 1 a tt
j t r t | j rt ] rt st It tr i tt . | t r sa j arIt , t |
j rt 1 a tIt m ar] i r a| st rt Ii t rt a| tam | i t | a t
t tj t ri m t r Ia |a j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t |a t m j rt sa
ta ar 1 t st tari a a r i Iari am t r It t | i r sa m t
t m j |t a1 t . |s Iam | i t r a r a m t 1 i 1 a Ii si ta,
| a t 1 t j t r 1 t 1 t |as tar Ii 1 a1 t s 1 t i r sa m t
t m j |t a1 as. | t m t st sa| t , t r t | tt rIt j |att
t sIa a It t Ia a | a 1 t r t m i r a 1 a | t 1 t | t s
rt r 1 i m i t r It s m a r] i r a |t s 1 t t rt t i t r It s a |
IatIt r. |r j |att s m at rt s, |a j rt 1 a tIi ti 1 a1
m a r] i r a | 1 t a r i r sa m t r t 1 t j t r 1 t
t t t | a si t a m t r I t 1 t | t rt t i m i t r I t | a t
t tj t ri m t r It t st i r sa m t , si r t Iam | i t r 1 t
|as tari ati t r t s | a t j a t 1 ar It r t r t | rt sIt 1 t
|t s IatIt rt s j rt 1 a tIi tt s. | t t sIa m ar t ra,
j t 1 ri a t t rst a r i r t rt m t r I t t r | a
j rt 1 a tIi ti 1 a1 m ar] i r a| 1 t a r i r sa m t 1 a1 t ,
r t a r a 1 i sm i r a t i t r , t a a r 1 t It 1 t s |t s
i r sa m t s t m j | t a 1 t s j t r | a t m j rt sa
aa m t r It r .
|a t Ii ti t r ti a st 1 t Ii r t t r It rm i r t s ] t r t ra|t s
tt m t |a rt |ati t r rt ta rst sIrt sa |Ia1 t s st
t ta|a a a j arIi r 1 t tt m j arati t r t s. || m as
t Ii ti t r It t s t | | a t m t }t r m t r t r rt |ati t r
rt ta rst sIrt sa |Ia1 t s j rt st r Ia. |a t Ii ti t r ti a
t s a r a t t r 1 i t i t r m a t a |t ra 1 a j t r |a s
t m j rt sas, t sj t ti a|m t r It ta ar 1 t t r Irt r Iar
t stt r ari t s tt m j |t }t s tt m j t Ii Ii tt s. | r a
t t t r t m i a I a r t i t r a m t } t r t a a r 1 t sa s
t m j rt sas t i r 1 a sIri as a|tar tar |a t Ii ti t r ti a.
1 a tari as 1 i m t r si t r t s 1 t t sIt tt r tt j It .
|a t Ii ti t r ti a It tr i ta, |a t Ii ti t r ti a asi ] r aIi ta,
|a t Ii ti t r ti a 1 t t sta|a, |a t Ii ti t r ti a-X |a
t Ii ti t r ti a 1 i r am i ta.
| r a tt m | i r ati t r 1 t i r sa m t s j rt 1 a tIt s
t s I t t r i t a m t r I t t I i t i t r I t , si t s
It t r t | t ] i t a m t r It i m j t si | | t a a m t r Ia r
a|] a r j rt 1 a tIt t rt 1 a ti r a|] a r i r sa m t si r
rt 1 a t i r si m a |Ia r t a m t r It a | m t r t s t Irt
j rt 1 a tIt t aa m t r Iar a| m t r t s t Irt i r sa m t .
| sI a 1 i m t r si t r I i t r t | a t t t r t t r | t s
a sj t t It s It t r t | t ] i t t s j rt st r It s t r | a
rt |ati t r t r Irt |t s i r sa m t s |a j rt 1 a tti t r .
| r a t r] a r i t a t i t r t Ii t i t r It 1 t | t t j t ra r
st | rt | a I rt r I t ra 1 t j rt 1 a t t i t r , | a t
rt j rt st r Ia t | r i tt | m ati m t 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r
| a t st j a t 1 t t | It r t r j a ra t | r i t t | 1 t
rt ta rst s | a t st j t st t . |s j t si | |t t sIa| |t tt r
| a t m i t r Iras m as tt rtar t st t sIt 1 t t st
m a t i m t m t r t r t a j a t i 1 a 1 t t i t sa , m a s
t Ii ti t r It It r 1 t ra a st r a r a t r] ar i tati t r . | t r
t | | t , a r t 1 t | t s m t It 1 t s j a ra t sIi m a r
t Ii t i t r t i a It t r i t a t s t | j a ra m t Iri t t , | a t
t sIi m a a r a Irt r It ra t sIt t a sIi t a j t r t i a
t tt r t m t Iri ta.
| r j rt tt st 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r t s t Ii ti t r It t r
a r st r I i 1 t a si ] r a I i t t , si j a ra a r
1 t It rm i r a1 t r i tt | 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r r t t ti sIt
r i r ] a r t Irt j rt tt st | a t j a t 1 a a Ii |i tarst
j ara ] t r t rar 1 i t| t r i tt | a a r m t r t r tt sIt .
|t s t t r t t j It s t t m | i r a 1 t s 1 t t Ii t i t r t i a
It tr i ta t Ii ti t r ti a asi ] r aIi ta tt r sIi Ia t r |a
t t m a r m t r I t 1 t r t m i r a 1 a t I i t i t r t i a
t tt r t m i ta .
| r tt r tt j It 1 t |ar] t j |att , rt |ati t r a1 t
tt r |t s ar It ri t rt s, t s t | 1 t t Ii ti t r ti a 1 t
t st a |a , | a t st |t ] ra t a a r 1 t |a t m j rt sa
j rt 1 a tt t r a r a t sta|a 1 t Iam a1 t t j Ii m a,
1 t m t 1 t I a | | a t j a t 1 t m a t i m i t a r
| t r t Ii ti t s. |sIa t sta|a 1 t Iam a1 t t j Ii m a
m i r i m i t a | t s t t sI t s a r i I a ri t s 1 t
j rt 1 a tti t r . | a a|| a i t r t Irt Iam a1 t 1 i sIi r It
a | t j I i m t ] t r t ra ra a r t t sI t a r i I a ri t
sa j t ri t r a| st 1 a|a1 t .
M a s | a t | a | |a r 1 t t Ii t i t r t i a -X, st sa t |t
| a| |ar 1 t i r t Ii ti t r ti a-X, tt ast |t i | t r sIt i r
1tt 1I! . |sIa i r t Ii ti t r ti a st j rt 1 a tt
t a a r 1 t st rt | a } a r | t s i r t t r Ii t t s j a ra
m i r i m i tar tt sIt s t r a r a t m j rt sa sa t |t
rt Ia ] i a rst t r m t rt a 1 t s m t r t j t |i t t s a
t |i ] t j t |i tt s, t t r a| a t ||t s tt r | arrt ras 1 t
t r Ira1 a si ] r i Ii taIi tas. |r t sIas t m j rt sas |t s
Ira| a}a1 t rt s |t s 1 i rt tIi tt s j t rti | t r | a t
|a m ati m i tati t r 1 t | t sIa t rtt j t rst r a| r t t s
r t t t sa ri a j a ra t | I t r t r | t r t I i t i t s. | |
rt sa | Ia 1 t 1 t t sIa | t ] i t a st ra a r a ] ra r
tar Ii 1 a1 1 t rt ta rst s 1 t sj t r1 i ti a1 t s, a r a
| a }a j rt 1 a t Ii t i 1 a 1 a r r i tt | 1 t t t sIt s
i r r t tt sari am t r It a|It , m a sa j t ri t r a |t
| a t sa j t r t t | t j Ii m t 1 t st m j t 1 t 1 t |a
t m j rt sa.
| a t Ii t i t r t i a 1 i r a m i t a t s t | a a m t r It 1 t
j rt 1 a tIi ti 1 a1 t |a m t }t ra t r |a taj ati 1 a1
1 t |a t m j rt sa j ara trt ar ta|t r a j arIi r 1 t |a
i r r t t a t i t r .
1
| i t | t 1 t t Ira It rm a , t s |a
t a j a t i 1 a 1 1 t | a t m j rt sa j a ra | a t t r
i r tt rsi t r t s | a t rt 1 a ttar tt sIt s t ] t r t rt r
i r ] rt st s t t m t j t r t } t m j | t , t r
i r tt sIi ] a t i t r t i r t t rj t ra t i t r 1 t r a t ta s
It tr t |t ] i as , | a t ||t tt r a a r a j rt 1 a tti t r
1 t | i t r t s m as tt m j t Ii Ii tt s t a a r a m at r
ta|i 1 a1 tari t 1 a1 1 t |t s m i sm t s.
1 a si | a t It r t r j rt st r It | a t r t It 1 a
t I i t i t r t i a t s t t r t t r i t r I t j a ra | a
a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a . i | a It t r t | t ] i a a ] ri t t | a
| t ] ra ra rt 1 a t i r si ] r i I i t a I i t a m t r I t | a
j rt j t rti t r 1 t 1 t starIt 1 t st t| t j rt j i a 1 t
|a tt st t| a, t r It r tt s st j t 1 ri a t sj t rar a r
t It tIt r t ] aIi tt t r tart ti m i t r It st | rt t |
j rt ti t j rt m t 1 i t 1 t |a m aIt ri a j ri m a.
|as trt ti t r It s t ti ] t r ti as t r |t s m t rta1 t s
t tIt rr t s | ar ||t ta1 t a j arIt i m j t rIar It 1 t
|a s t m j rt sa s a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a |t s a rt a |i t a r
i r tt rsi t r t s j a ra t |t t a r t t m j t Ii Ii t i 1 a 1
t Ii t i t r t i a , t r i r sIa |a t i t r t s, t | a i j t s 1 t
j rt tt st , 1 t sarrt ||t a] ri tt |a 1 t m t rta1 t ,
asi tt m t t r taj i Ia| 1 t Ira| a}t j ara Ii r ar ti ar
|a atIi ti 1 a1 1 t It m j t ra1 a 1 | ||k I11\ .
|a i r r t tati t r t s t Ira 1 t |as art as | a t |a
a] rt i r 1 a sIri a rt | a i t rt rt It rtar j ara st ] a i r
atar tar 1 t j t si ti t r arst t r |t s m t rta1 t s.
| t sa rrt | | a r t a ri t 1 a 1 t s a 1 t t a a 1 a s a | a
i r 1 a sI ri a , a 1 t j I a r r a t t t s t r t a st s
t m | a|a}t s, i r tt rj t rar r a t tas It tr t |t ] i as t r
|t s j rt tt st s j rt 1 a tIi tt s, t i r r t tar t r sa s
t sIraIt ] i as 1 t m ar| t Ii r ] tt m t rti a|i tati t r ,
a j a rt t t r t t m t a | ] a r t s 1 t sa I i t s j t r
t r Irt r Iar t r t | m t 1 i ar t |ar] t j |att | ratt
I1 1 .
III. Conclusiones
| t | a rt t i si t r rt a | i t a 1 a t r | a st t t i t r
ar It ri t r st j a t 1 t r 1 t sIatar |t s si ] a i t r It s
j a r It s. Ia|Ia i r It rm ati t r t sIa 1 i t s st | rt
t | ra | rt tt m t j ara tt r It rm ar a r a |i sIa 1 t
| t t | t s t sIi |i t a 1 t s j a ra |a a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a
| t rIt Ira Ii t t |a , st j a t 1 t r , si r t m | a r] t ,
Ii j i Ii t a r a |] a r t s 1 t sa s ra s] t s, I j t r
a|] a r t s i r 1 i ta1 t rt s |a taj ati 1 a1 t ti t sa
t t m t t | m a s r i Ii 1 t st j a t 1 t It r t r |a
st sj t t| a, j t rt r t |a tt rIt ta, 1 t | a t t | ra | rt
t sIt i r st rIt t r a r m a r 1 t 1 t tt m j t It r ti a
i m j t rIt t I a , t t r rt | a I i t a m t r I t j t t t s
j arIi ti j ar It s m a t| as j |ar Ias , j rt 1 a tIt s
1 i It rt r t i a 1 t s, i r It rm a t i t r i r t t m j |t Ia ,
rt sIri tti t r t s a |a m t ti |i 1 a1 1 t |t s IatIt rt s
| a rrt ra s a | i r ] rt st , 1 a r a j rt |t r ] a 1 a
aj rt ti ati t r 1 t | Ii j t 1 t tam | i t a r a m at r
tt |aIi |i 1 a1 tam | i ari a aIt tIar r t ] aIi tam t r It
a| ra | rt a] rt i r 1 a sIri a|, \ Irt r It a |t ar It ri t r
ta| t r |t s si ] a i t r It s t }t rti ti t s. i st |t a}a sIar
tt sIt s j t r t Ii ti t r ti a i r It rr a ta ar 1 t r t st
I i t r t j t 1 t r a | ] a r t , i i a } a sI a r t t sI t s,
i r t|a si tt ti a a}a sIt s 1 t j rt ti t s t r a|] a r t s
st ] m t r It s sa rIi 1 t rt s 1 t m a It ri a j ri m a ,
j a rIi t a |a rm t r It r t t t m j t Ii Ii t t s t t r t |
tt r sa m t t r Irt stt , ta ar 1 t st |t st Ii t r t
a |] a r ] ra 1 t 1 t j t 1 t r m t r t j st r i t t , i i i
t }t rt t r |a j ra t Ii t a 1 t | pricing to market
ta ar 1 t st |t st Ii t r t a|] a r ] ra1 t 1 t j t 1 t r
m t r t j t |i tt , i t a}a sIt m i tIt ta ar 1 t st
Ii t r t a|] a r ] ra1 t 1 t j t 1 t r m t r t j st r i tt
m t r t j t |i tt , ! | a a r tam | i t t r |t s | a| i It s
1 t t t r sa m t | a t i a a r a 1 i t Ia m a s sa r a t
i r t t a a , t t i ] t r t i a s 1 t Ira t a | i |i 1 a 1 1 t |
13 Vase Cassiman y otros (2010).
tI Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
j rt 1 a tIt , t st rt | a i t rt r t ] t ti ati t r j ara
m t }t rar t | attt st a m t rta1 t s j rt It ] i 1 t s
r t ] t t i a t i t r t t r |a s ] ra r 1 t s t a 1 t r a s 1 t
1 i sIri | a ti t r a|i m t r Iari a, I |a i m j t rIar ti a
1 t | m t rt a 1 t t t It rr t j a ra |a j rt 1 a t t i t r
Ira Ii t t | a | a i m j t rIa r t i a 1 t | m t rt a 1 t
i r It rr t j ara |a j rt 1 a tti t r | t rIi tt |a, r t
st 1 i sj t r t 1 t i r It rm ati t r j ara t sIa| |t tt r
t | ] ra1 t 1 t i r It ] rati t r tt rIi ta| | ati a aIras
t upstream 1 t | ra | rt , 1 |a i r It ] ra t i t r
| t ri tt r Ia |, t i a Ia si t r t s t a 1 | a i si t i t r t s,
aa m t r Ia t | ] ra1 t 1 t j t 1 t r m t r t j t |i tt
m t r t j st r i t t 1 t | ra | rt , 1 | a | ri a
a t I a a | m t r I t a r a t a j a t i 1 a 1 t t i t sa
si ] r i Ii taIi ta t r t | ra | rt , ta t a r i tt ras] t
j t si Ii tt st ri a j t 1 t r aIt r 1 t r a r a 1 t m ar 1 a
Ia Ia ra | a t rt It m t t | trt ti m i t r It t | st rta1 t
t r |a 1 t ta1 a j asa1 a, j t rt 1 t s1 t sa atIa a|
m t r t r r i tt |, |a Ia t r It 1 t a| asIt ti m i t r It
1 t m a It ri a s j ri m a s j a ra |a a ] rt i r 1 a sIri a
1 t j t r 1 t ra 1 t | a r a I a ra | t t a 1 t | a
I ra r sa t t i t r , t sI t t s, 1 t | a I rt t a t r t i a ,
i r tt rIi 1 a m | rt t sj t ti Ii ti 1 a1 1 t |t s atIi tt s
a Irar sar, I tt m j |t m t r Iari t a |t ar It ri t r,
st j ri ti |t ] i ari a |a a] ri ta |Ia ra 1 t tt r IraIt j t r
sa m t r t r ri t s] t si t m j rt t r |t s ta |Ii tt s
a] ri tt |as ] t r t ra1 t rt s 1 t 1 t st tt r t m i as 1 t
t st a | a , t t r a r i 1 a 1 t s a ] ra ri a s 1 t | a } a
sa j t rIi ti t , 1 |a i r r t tati t r 1 t j rt 1 a tIt s
j ri r t i j a | m t r It , rt | a Ii t a a | a t Ii t i t r t i a
1 i r am i ta, aj art tt tt m t a r 1 t saIi t tra ti a|
t r t | m t 1 i ar t |ar] t j |att .
t t t r t | a t | a t st I ra I a 1 t a r ra | rt
tt m j |t }t aIratIi tt a |a tt t, 1 t trt ti t r It
i m j t rIar ti a, | a t 1 t | i t ra tt r ti Iar m at r
i r It rt s a| 1 t m t sIra1 t | asIa a| t ra j t r j arIt
1 t i r tt sIi ] a1 t rt s t| i |t r t s t r |t s tam j t s 1 t
|a m i trt t tt r t m i a, |a t r] ar i tati t r i r 1 a sIri a|
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| k |k | | || !., 1 | V. | | | || |. 11I.
t ] m t r I a t i t r 1 t M t rt a 1 t s
| i stri m i r ati t r | r It rr ati t r a| 1 t | rt ti t s.
|ti 1 t r ti a |m j i ri ta j ara |as |tj t rIati t r t s
| r 1 a sIri a|t s |sj a1 t |as a |t s | ri r ti j a|t s
| a i st s 1 t | a 1 | | | . | r t t sI i ] a t i t r t s
|tt r t m i tas, tt |. XX| 1 , j j . !\1-!tI.
| | k V 1 ! . I 1 1 . | | i | t t | M t rt a 1 t
M a r 1 i a | 1 t | a |ra Ia | r 1 a sIri a | i t a 1 a .
1 Ii ti r a 1 t |sIa 1 i t s | t |i Ii tas k ] rari as,
M i r i sIt ri t 1 t k ] ri ta |Ia ra, a| ri |, I j .
| | |1 w ! . , | | k K k | 1 | |1 ! .
| ||M | || || |. 1!. 1 t |1 i r ] | 1 |t | aj ati I
It | t It r |r Ir. |tt r t m i t !t a rr a|, tt |. 1!,
j j . I- I.
| k | M k K | . , | 1 | 1 V | 1 | .
M k | | K | l -| 1 | . I 1 1 . | r r t t a Ii t r ,
|tj t rIs ar 1 | rt 1 a tIi ti I. | r It rr aIi t r a|
!t a rr a | t I | r 1 a sIri a | 1 r] a r i t a Ii t r , I
I1 1 , j j . 1II-1It.
| 1 | ||k || M |K 1 I1 1a. |tj t rIati t r t s
1 t k | i m t r I t s | | a | t ra 1 t s 1 -I 1 1 1 .
k st ti ati t r 1 t |m j rt sas 1 t k |i m t r It s 1 t
| | i |t .
| 1 | ||k || M |K 1 I1 1| . |tj t rIati t r t s
1 t k | i m t r I t s | | a | t ra 1 t s. | t m j a -
rati t r t s |r t rt -!a |i t 1 t | a1 a k 1 t I111-
I 1 1 . k st t i a t i t r 1 t | m j rt sa s 1 t
k |i m t r It s 1 t | | i |t .
| 1 k | | . 11I. | t K aIa rt t I I| t |i rm .
|tt r t m i ta, t \ , j j . 1t-\1!.
| 1 K k M k | M 1 1 . | r 1 a sI ri a
| rt tt sa1 t ra 1 t |ra Ias 1 t rIa|i tas, | a i a
j a ra t | | t r I rt | | rt t t r t i t r 1 t | a
| t r Ia m i r a t i t r | r 1 a sIri a |. | r | a st a
t sIa 1 i t | K || -| | i |t , m artt , 1I j .
| | | | 1 | . I11\. t sIi r ] It r a | t It r ti a|
M a r| t I | t t r t I I | t | | i | t a r w i r t
|tj t rIs. k | ri ti r ] -It -M ar| t I k j j rt at| .
|ata |Ia1 1 t | i t r ti as k ] rari as | a | |i s| t r,
| r i tt rsi 1 a1 1 t a|ta, \ j .
| | K 1 | | | K M . 1 1 t . V t rI i t a |
| t t j t raIi t r i r k ] ri ta |Ia ra|-| rt 1 a tIi t r
M ar| t Ii r ] | | ai r , i I| j t ti a| | t It rt r tt
I t | rt 1 a t I | i I It rt r I i a I i t r i r | t r| .
k ] ri | a si r t ss, tt |. I, K 1, j j . III-I11.
| | V | | | | X M . | K | | | | | . I 1 1 I .
|tt| ar ] t | aIt | ass- | rt a ] | , |tt| ar ] t
| a I t V t | a I i | i I , a r 1 | t t | a r ] t | a I t
| i st t r r t t I . !t a rr a | t I M t r t I a r
|tt r t m i ts, tt |. \1 ! , }a |, j j . 1 1-1\1.
| | X| k . 11. | t | t |t t I | r tt sIm t r I i r
|r Ir | t It rrt r tt . |tt r t m i t !t a rr a|, tt |.
11, j j . 1!- 1t.
|M 1 K w. 11t. | t t 1 i m t s, | a1 i m t s
a r 1 V t rI i t a | | j sI rt a m | r I t ] ra I i t r .
| r I t rr a I i t r a | !t a rr a | t I | r 1 a sI ri a |
1 r] ar i taIi t r , tt |. \, i ssa t \, }a r t , j j .
\t!-\\.
| | |-| k | | !k . I 1 1 1 . | ri t i r ] t M a r| t I
| t | a t i t a r i r | a rt j t a r | a r M a r| t Is.
|a rt j t ar |tt r t m i t | t ti t \I, j j . 1\!-
1tI.
| | | YK k |. |V | k | . I111 . || | aj i Ia |t
t r k ] ri t a |Ia ra 1 t | k || k . | r k r a |i si s
| ri Ii t t . 1 | st rt a It ri t 1 t | | t sa rrt ||t ,
| t r Irt | a Ii r t k m t ri t a r t 1 t | t t |t ] i a
t ti a| | |k | , M t r It ti 1 t t , t r t rt , ! j .
1 k ||w1 1 | | . 111. rar satIi t r | t sIs
a r 1 ra 1 t | t I t t r M a | I i r a I i t r a |
| t rj t raIi t r s. k Ia 1 t I 1 IIs| t rt 1 i |
| rt 1 a tIi t r . | r i r 1 m ar , |t r 1 t r , 1!
j .
1 1 | k | | k . YV | | 1 K | | . I 1 1 I .
| t m t r I i r ] | t | a I i t r s| i j s. V t rI i t a |
| r It ] ra Ii t r , |t rt t |t sa rt , | rt 1 a t Ii t i I,
ar 1 | ri tt s. !t a rr a| t I |t |i Ii ta| |tt r t m ,
t tIt | t r.
| K |-1 | ||k I1 1. | r It rm ati t r 1 t rIi tt |a.
| a | |i tati t r |sj t ti a| I11-I111, }a r i t , 1
j .
| | | | M k K |. 1 I . | ri t i r ] It M a r| t I
| t r I| t |tt| ar ] t | aIt | | ar ] t s. |r .
w. k rr 1 I !. | . | i t| ar1 st r t 1 s. , | t a|-
| i r a r t i a | | i r | a ] t s k m t r ] 1 j t r
|tt r t m i t s, |t r 1 t r , M | | rt ss, \t j .
| k K | | | k | | k . 1 1 | | 1 w. I 1 1 .
k } a sIt s | sIra It ] i t t s 1 t | rt t i t s a r It
V a ri a t i t r t s 1 t | a a sa 1 t | a m | i t .
| t i 1 t r t i a t r | a s | t j t rI a t i t r t s r t
ra 1 i t i t r a | t s | t | t m | i a r a s. | r sa t s
t | rt | t |i Ii ta |tt r t m i ta | | | , tt |. It,
K !t, }a r i t , j j . \t-It.
||| | |K || K 1 . 1tt. k ||t taIi tt |IIi ti t r t
t t rsa s X-| I I i t i t r t . | t k m t ri t a r
|tt r t m i t | t ti t , !t, j j . 11I-\ !.
||| | |K || K 1 . 1I!. k sj t tIs t I I| t X-
|IIi ti t r t | t t r t I I| t |i rm . | t || !t a rr a|
|tt r t m i ts, t, j j . !1-t1t.
M k | | K . I11I. a r | | t sIs ar 1 |r Ir.
| t ti t t I | r 1 a sIri a| 1 r] ar i taIi t r I1, j j .
I1 -11\.
1 | |||| M . | 1 | 1 || | . I111. | t i t
M a } t r | a t t | t s i r | r I t rr a I i t r a |
M atrt t tt r t m i ts. | s | t rt a | t m m t r
| a a st ! K | | | wt r| i r ] | a j t r K I I I I ,
K aIi t r a| | a rt aa t I |tt r t m i t | t st art| .
1 | | | k I 1 1 \ . k ] rt i r 1 a sI ri a
1 t rIt Ira Ii tt |a, }a r i t , 1\ j .
| | |||| k . | | | ||M | V. I1 1. k a ] t
| ai 1 a 1 t | rt ti t s 1 t | t m m t 1 i Ii t s sa
| m j a t I t st | rt | rt t i t s | t m t sI i t t s.
| t m j arati t r | r It rr ati t r a|. | t ta m t r It
1 t ra| a}t K !tI, | ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t ,
a| ri |.
| 1 | || , M . 11. | |a sIt rs ar 1 I| t K t
| t t r t m i t s t I | t m j t Ii Ii t r . 1 a rt a r1
| a si r t ss | t ti t , r t tt m | t r-1 t tt m | t r,
j j . II-11.
| 1 | || , M . I111. |t taIi t r , | t m j t Ii Ii t r
a r 1 | t t r t m i t | t t t | t j m t r I . | t t a |
| |a sIt rs i r a | |t | a| |tt r t m . |tt r t m i t
| t tt |t j m t r I a a rIt r|, tt |. \ , K ,
It | ra ar, j j . !-1!.
k | K || k . I1 1. ||a tIa ati t r t s 1 t | i j t
1 t | am | i t | t a| rar sa| i |i 1 a1 1 t | i t r t s
t r t | | t m t rti t | i |aIt ra| | | i |t -|sIa1 t s
| r i 1 t s. | t ta m t r It 1 t ra| a}t K !1I,
| ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t , t tIa | rt , 11 j .
| | K | | k . 1 I I . | r I r, | a j a t i I ,
| r tt sIm t r I, a r 1 1 |i ] t j t |i sIi t | ri t i r ] .
| t || !t a rr a| t I |tt r t m i ts, tt |. , j j . !1\-
!\\.
1 M | | . 11 . |a k ] rt i r 1 a sIri a 1 t |a
| a sIa 1 t t m a It j a ra | t j t rIa t i t r t r
| | i |t . | a 1 t r a s k ] rt t t j t rIa 1 t ra s t r
t\ Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
| | i | t , ra r sIt rm a t i t r | rt 1 a t I i t a t
| r It ] ra t i t r t t i a |, a r Ii a ] t 1 t | | i |t ,
| || k |, j j . 1- tI.
Vk ||K l | ||k |. 11I. || M t rta1 t 1 t |a
M aIt ri a | ri m a k ] ri tt |a t r a r | t r It tIt
1 t | ri si s 1 t rIt Ira Ii tt |a. | r a | t I|t ti t r .
| t ti sIa ri |t ] i a, | r i tt rsi 1 a1 t tr t |t ] i ta
M t Irt j t |i Iar a, Vt |. t, K I!IIt, ! j .
V k | | K l | | | k | . I 1 1 . | t t r t m i a
k ] rt i r 1 a sIri a |. | 1 i t i t r t s | r i t t rsi 1 a 1
t tr t |t ] i ta M t Irt j t |i Iar a, I j .
w| | | | k M 1 K 1 . 1 ! . | t | t t r t m i t
| r sIi Ia Ii t r s t I | aj i Ia|i sm . |i rm s, M ar| t Is,
| t |aIi t r a| | t r IratIi r ] . | | aj It r | | .
|rt t | rt ss, k | i ti si t r t I M atm i ||ar , K t
Yt r| , j j . !-11.
w| ||| k M 1 K 1 . 111. rar satIi t r | t sI
|tt r t m i ts ar 1 1 r] ar i taIi t r a| | t t r.
!t a rr a | t I | r 1 a sIri a | a r 1 | t rj t ra It
| | ar ] t , tt |. I, j j . 1I- !t.
Nota del autor:
|r t | tt |a m t r , r a m t rt I a] t sIt I11I , 1 t |a | t ti sIa | | i |t r a 1 t |tt r t m i a t ti t 1 a1 , t r m i arIi ta |t M t 1 t ||i r ]
|m j |t m t r I, 1 a Ij a I ar 1 |a| t a r | t sIs. k | t r t ra| It j t ti Ii t M t I| t 1 t |t ] , aj art tt .
i | a] i r a 1\, st ] a r 1 a tt |a m r a, t ta ati t r 1 , 1 t sj a t s 1 t | It rtt r j arraIt
| i tt . |r = | a |r - | | 1 |
Debe decir: ln = k + a ln(-1) + b ly + d lw
i i | a] i r a 1\, st ] a r 1 a tt |a m r a, t ta ati t r \ , 1 t sj a t s 1 t |a t ta ati t r 1
| i tt . |r = |r |r - = | | | 1 |
Debe decir: ln = ln ln(-1) = k + b ly + d lw
i i i | a] i r a 1I, st ] a r 1 a tt |a m r a, j arraIt a tt r Ii r a ati t r 1 t |a t ta ati t r \
| i tt . i r | i t| r = Irar sj t st t I -
Debe decir: in which r = transpose of [11]
t! Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, 4(1): 65 - 84, Diciembre 2010
Resumen
|a i r tt sIi ] ati t r , j rt st r Ia a r a aj |i tati t r 1 t |
j rt tt st 1 t 1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r 1 t st ri t s
t tt r t m i tas, m t 1 i ar It |a m t It 1 t |t ] i a X I
k | | M k 1 t | | t r sa s | a rt aa 1 t |t s |sIa1 t s
| r i 1 t s, t r t | | r 1 i tt 1 t | rt 1 a tti t r 1 t |a
| r 1 a sI ri a M a r a Ia t I a rt ra 1 t | | i | t ,
i r t t rj t ra r 1 t t r t | a r a | i si s t | t It t I t
ta|t r 1 ari t t| i |t r t .
| | t | } t Ii t t 1 t | t sIa 1 i t Ia t t sIa 1 i a r t |
j rt tt st 1 t 1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r tt r t It tIt
ta|t r 1 ari t 1 t st ri t s t tt r t m i tas, a Iratt s 1 t |
m t It 1 t X I k | | M k .
t aj |i tt a| m t It 1 t 1 t 1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r
t | t It t It t a |t r 1 a ri t a t t r1 t a |a rt a |i 1 a 1
t| i |t r a, t r t | st tIt r | r 1 a sIri a M ar a IatIa rt ra
m t 1 i 1 t j t r t | | r 1 i tt 1 t | rt 1 a tti t r Vt r Ias
|i si tas | | V | . t m i 1 i t |a ta|i 1 a1 1 t a}a sIt
1 t |a 1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r st ar a|i tt |t s
| t r t Ii t i t s 1 t t t r Ia r t t r st ri t s 1 t st sIa -
ti t r a|i ta1 as j ara t | ar a|i si s 1 t tt a r Ia ra,
1 t m ar t ra 1 t i 1 t r Ii Ii tar t j t rIa r am t r It
| a i t | rt s 1 t It r 1 t r ti a t r t | ti t|t .
Summary
The research presents an application of the
process of seasonal adjustment of economic
series, using the X12 ARIMA method of the
U.S Census Bureaus, on production
indicators of the Manufacturing Industry in
Chile, incorporating into the analysis the
calendar effect of Chile. The objective was
to study the process of seasonal adjustment
using the calendar effect of economic series,
through the X12 ARI MA method. The
method of seasonal adjustment was applied
to the calendar effect according to the
Chilean reality, in the Manufacturing area
and measured by Production indicators and
real Sales (physical sales) (IPV F).
We measured the quality of the adjustment
for the season and analyzed the benefits of
having adjusted series for the analysis of the
situation, so as to appropriately identify
trend breaks in the cycle.
Keywords: X12 ARIMA method, seasonal
adjustment
Clasificacin JEL: c22, c32
Contexto
|a atIi ti 1 a1 t tt r t m i ta j rt st r Ia t r m a t| as
1 t sa s ram as m t ti m i t r It s si sIt m aIi tt s | a t
st rt j i It r tt r ti t rIa Irt ta t r ti a tt r t ti 1 a
t t m t t sIa t i t r a |i 1 a 1 , I|a t Ia a t i t r t s i r Ira
ar a a|t s m t r sa a|t s t Iri m t sIra|t s | a t st
rt j i It r a1 t a a1 t 1 t m ar t ra m as t m t r t s
rt ] a |ar. |r ] t r t ra| t r t | tast 1 t i r 1 i tt s ta a
Deses Deses Deses Deses Desestacionalizacin x12 ARIMA c tacionalizacin x12 ARIMA c tacionalizacin x12 ARIMA c tacionalizacin x12 ARIMA c tacionalizacin x12 ARIMA con ef on ef on ef on ef on efecto cal ecto cal ecto cal ecto cal ecto calendario: endario: endario: endario: endario:
Indic Indic Indic Indic Indice de Pr e de Pr e de Pr e de Pr e de Produc oduc oduc oduc oduccin de la Indus cin de la Indus cin de la Indus cin de la Indus cin de la Industria Manuf tria Manuf tria Manuf tria Manuf tria Manufactur actur actur actur acturer er er er era aa aa
Seasonal Adjus Seasonal Adjus Seasonal Adjus Seasonal Adjus Seasonal Adjustments x12 ARIMA using cal tments x12 ARIMA using cal tments x12 ARIMA using cal tments x12 ARIMA using cal tments x12 ARIMA using calender eff ender eff ender eff ender eff ender effect: ect: ect: ect: ect:
Pr Pr Pr Pr Production indicador f oduction indicador f oduction indicador f oduction indicador f oduction indicador for the manuf or the manuf or the manuf or the manuf or the manufacturing indus acturing indus acturing indus acturing indus acturing industry try try try try
Magister en Economa Financiera. Universidad de Santiago de Chile
tt Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
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M a r a Ia t Ia rt ra m t 1 i 1 t j t r t | | r 1 i t t 1 t
| rt 1 a tti t r Vt r Ias |i si tas | | V | . t m i 1 i t
| a t a | i 1 a 1 1 t a } a sI t 1 t | a
1 t st sI a t i t r a | i t a t i t r st a r a | i t t | t s
| t r t I i t i t s 1 t t t r I a r t t r st ri t s
1 t st sIa t i t r a | i t a 1 a s j a ra t | a r a | i si s 1 t
t t a r I a ra , 1 t m a r t ra 1 t i 1 t r I i I i t a r
t j t rIa r am t r It | a i t | rt s 1 t It r 1 t r ti a t r t |
ti t|t .
ndice de Produccin y Ventas Fsicas
Industriales (| | V |)
|| | r 1 i tt 1 t | rt 1 a tti t r Vt r Ias |i si tas | | V
| , t s a r i r 1 i ta1 t r tt a r Ia ra| ta a Ii r a|i 1 a1
t s m t 1 i r | a t t t | a t i t r m t r sa a | 1 t | a
atIi ti 1 a1 j rt 1 a tIi ta rt a|i ta1 a j t r |as ram as
1 t | a i r 1 a sI ri a t t rrt sj t r 1 i t r I t a | a
| a I t ] t ri a 1 t a | a | a t i t r | | r 1 a sI ri a s
M ar a IatIa rt ras 1 t |a | |asi Ii tati t r | r 1 a sIri a|
| r I t rr a t i t r a | | r i I t rm t 1 t I t 1 a s | a s
tI Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
Desestacionalizacin x12 ARIMA con efecto calendario: Indice de Produccin de la Industria Manufacturera
k tIi ti 1 a1 t s |tt r t m i tas | | | | , | t ti si t r 1
1 t K ati t r t s | r i 1 as. || taratIt r tt a r Ia ra|
1 t | i r 1 i t t | a t j t rI a r i 1 a 1 1 t sa
j a | |i tati t r -tt r a r rt ta] t 1 t I 1 i as |t
Irar sIt rm ar t r a r i r 1 i ta1 t r Ia r 1 am t r Ia|
j a ra |t s t a |t a |t s 1 t | | r 1 i t t M t r sa a | 1 t
k t Ii t i 1 a 1 | t t r t m i t a | M k | | | 1 t |a s
| a t r Ias K ati t r a|t s ri m t sIra|t s rt a|i ta1 as
j t r t | | ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t . k si m i sm t ,
tt r sIi Ia t a r a Ia t r It 1 t i r It rm ati t r j ara
|a It m a 1 t 1 t t i si t r t s 1 t t m j rt sa ri t s
ar a|i sIas.
k |] a r as taa sas t sIati t r a|t s | a t st j a t 1 t r
m t r t i t r a r | a t j rt tt t a r | a }a s t r |t s
r i tt |t s 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r t r ti t rIt s m t st s 1 t |
a1 t st r , t | j t ri t 1 t t sIi ta| 1 t r 1 t ] rar j arIt
1 t |t s Ira| a}a1 t rt s t sIar 1 t tatati t r t s, |t
| a t ] t r t ra j t r t }t m j |t , | a t t r |t s m t st s
1 t t r t rt It | rt rt | aa m t r t s j t rst r a| t r
|as t m j rt sas |t | a t i m j atIa r t ] aIi tam t r It
t r |a j rt 1 a t t i t r , |a t t |t | ra t i t r 1 t |a s
Ii t sIas j aIri as t r st j Ii t m | rt , |t | a t ] t r t ra
| a t t t i sI a r m t r t s 1 i a s | a | i | t s t r
t t m j a ra t i t r t t r t I rt s m t st s, | t | a t
1 i sm i r a t | a j rt 1 a t t i t r 1 t | i 1 t a | t s
m t r t s 1 i as 1 t atIi ti 1 a1 , t | r a m t rt 1 t 1 i as
1 t |a st m ar a | a t Ii t r t a r m t s, a r ti t rr t s,
sa| a1 t , 1 t m i r ] t It |a r t s 1 t m as t r a r
m t s, ] t r t ra r a r a 1 i sm i r a t i t r t r | a
j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t ] rar j arIt 1 t |as i r 1 a sIri as,
|as t sIati t r t s 1 t | a1 t | a t j a t 1 t | att r | a t
st i r t rt m t r It |a j rt 1 a t t i t r t r t i t rIt s
j t ri t 1 t s i .t . |a t |a| t rati t r 1 t | t |a1 t s st
i r t rt m t r Ia t r |t s m t st s 1 t t t ra r t t r
tt m j arati t r a |t s m t st s 1 t i r ti t rr t , t It.
|| t | }t Ii tt 1 t | t sIa 1 i t , t s |i m j i ar |a st ri t 1 t
j rt 1 a t t i t r i r 1 a sIri a | 1 t t sIt s | t t | t s
t sI a t i t r a | t s t I rt s m a s, a I ra t t s 1 t |
j rt ] ra m a 1 t 1 t st sIa t i t r a | i t a t i t r X I
k | | M k , aj |i tar 1 t t | t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t a |a
rt a|i 1 a1 r ati t r a|.
Figura N 1
Anlisis Grfico
1 | st rtar 1 t t | tt m j t rIam i t r It 1 t | | r 1 i tt
1 t | rt 1 a t t i t r 1 t | a | r 1 a sI ri a
M ar a IatIa rt ra -| | V |-
t r t | ] raIi tt 1 t |a
st ri t , Ii ] a ra , t | i r 1 i tt | a m t sIra1 t a r a
It r 1 t r ti a trt ti t r It , | asIa j t r |t m t r t s t |
a1 t I11I, t r t | ta a| r t st aj rt ti a a r a m t 1 i a
t sIa| |t a Iratt s 1 t | Ii t m j t , j t r |t | a t t |
i r 1 i tt r t st ri a t sIati t r ari t
I
.
k |a tt t, t | i r 1 i ta1 t r j rt st r Ia a r m arta1 t
j aIrt r t sIati t r a|, 1 t r 1 t |t s j t a| s m as a|It s
rt I | t } a r | a j rt 1 a t t i t r 1 t | a i r 1 a sI ri a
m a r a Ia t Ia rt ra t r |t s m t st s 1 t m a rtt
t tIa | rt 1 t ta1 a a1 t , t sIt st j a t 1 t t | st rtar
m t }t r t r t | ] raIi tt 1 t | r 1 i tt 1 t | rt 1 a tti t r
j t r k 1 t , Ii ] a ra . |r m artt t sIt t It tIt st
] t r t ra j rt 1 a tIt | a t j arIt 1 t |t s j rt tt st s
j rt 1 a t I i t t s | a t st 1 t | t ri a r | a | t r
] t r t ra1 t t r |t s m t st s 1 t t r t rt It | rt rt ,
t r |t s ta a|t s 1 i sm i r a t |a j rt 1 a tti t r a
| a t ] rar j arIt 1 t |t s Ira| a}a1 t rt s t sIar 1 t
tatati t r t s, st Irasj asar a m artt , a1 t m as
t ti sIt t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t a | a t m artt Ii t r t s
m a s 1 i a s Ira | a } a 1 t s | a t | t s m t st s 1 t
It | rt rt |t r ] i Ia 1 1 t | m t s t t i sIt |t s
It ri a1 t s m t ti |t s rt It rt r It a st m ar a sar Ia
| a t ] t r t ra|m t r It st tt |t | ra t r a| ri |, j t r
|t | a t a| ri | Ii t r t a r i m j atIt r t ] aIi tt t r sa
j rt 1 a tti t r rt sj t tIt a m artt , si t | st rtam t s
t | ] ra I i t t 1 t j rt 1 a t t i t r j t r a 1 t , | a
j rt 1 a tti t r rt It rt r It a| a1 t I11! j ara t | m t s
1 t m artt Ii t r t tasi t | m i sm t r i tt | | a t t r
a | ri |, t sIt st 1 t | t a | a t t r 1 i t | t a 1 t
st m ar a sar Ia st tt |t | rt t r m artt |t | a t
] t r t rt a r t It tIt r t ] aIi tt t r |a j rt 1 a tti t r
t r 1 i t| t m t s a r i m j atIt j t si Ii tt t r a| ri |,
m i sm a si Ia a t i t r t t a rri t t | a 1 t I 1 1 . | r
t tIa | rt t | i r trt m t r It st ] t r t ra t r j arIt
j t r t | Irasj ast 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t |t s m t st s
1 t st j Ii t m | rt , m t s | a t j ara It 1 t s |t s a1 t s
m a t sIra 1 i sm i r a ti t r t r |a j rt 1 a tti t r , t sIt
1 t | i 1 t a | a t t r | | i |t st tt |t | ra |as Ii t sIas
j aIri as |t | a t j rt tt ta | a t |t s m t st s 1 t
st j Ii t m | rt It r ] ar m t r t s 1 i as | a| i |t s.
|t ar It ri t r, st j a t 1 t t | st rtar a Iratt s 1 t |
] ra I i t t 1 t | a s sa | st ri t s t sI a t i t r a | t s
m t r sa a | t s, I i ] a ra I , t | t a a | rt I | t } a t |
i r trt m t r It t sIati t r a| |i r t a tt rIi ta| 1 t |a
j rt 1 a tti t r i r 1 a sIri a| j t r ta1 a m t s tt r sa
rt sj t t I i t a m t 1 i a t sI a t i t r a | | i r t a
| t ri tt r Ia| . | t m t st m a t sIra t r t | ] raIi tt
|as m t 1 i as t sIati t r a|t s r t st r si m i |art s j ara
|t s 1 i It rt r It s m t st s, j t r |t | a t |a st ri t
j rt st r Iari a t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 , rt I|t }a1 t t r |t s
a|It s r i tt |t s 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r j ara |t s m t st s
1 t m artt , t tIa | rt 1 i ti t m | rt , |t s ta a|t s
j rt st r Iar m t 1 i as t sIati t r a|t s m as a|Ias t r
tt m j arati t r a| rt sIt 1 t |t s m t st s. | t r sa
j arIt , t r |t s m t st s 1 t It | rt rt , st j Ii t m | rt
t r m t r t r ] ra 1 t t r }a r i t st a j rt t i a r
m t 1 i as m t r t rt s rt sj t tIt a |t s t Irt s m t st s.
Figura N 2
1 Las cifras del indicador se presentan en el anexo F, cuadro 18 Serie Original IPV F.
2 Para el proceso de desestacionalizacin, en su modulo RegARIMA, se requiere que las serie sea estacionaria.
|r t | ] raIi tt 1 t |a |a r ti t r 1 t k a It rrt |ati t r
k| | 1 t |a st ri t t ri ] i r a|, Ii ] a ra 1, st j a t 1 t
t | st rt a r | a t | t s rt t a ] t s 1 t t a t r
|t r Iam t r It , |t | a t i r 1 i tari a | a t |a st ri t
si ] a t a r j rt tt st aa It rrt ] rt si tt j rt st r Ia
rai t a r i Iari a, |t | a t i m j |i ta | a t |a st ri t r t
t s t sIati t r ari a 1 t | i t st st r 1 i It rt r ti a1 a
j ara Irar sIt rm ar|a t r a r a st ri t | a t si |t st a.
| t r t Irt |a1 t , t r |a k| | st aj rt ti ar j t a| s
t sIati t r a|t s t r |t s rt ta] t s I I\ |t s ta a|t s
tt rrt sj t r 1 t r a |t s m t st s 1 t 1 i ti t m | rt , |t
ta a| Iam | i t r st j a t 1 t t | st rtar j ara |t s
rt ta] t s 1 ! m t s 1 t m artt , a1 t m as j ara
|t s rt ta] t s t m t s 1 t }a r i t st t | st rtar
| t s 1 t t a i m i t r It s m a s j rt r a r t i a 1 t . | t
ar It ri t r, j t 1 ri a i r 1 i tar | a t |a st ri t j rt st r Ia
a r a m t 1 i a m t ti | t sIati t r a|.
k sa tt t , |a |a r t i t r 1 t k a It t t rrt |a t i t r
| arti a| |k | | i r 1 i tari a | a t |a st ri t si ] a t
a|] a r j rt tt st aa It rrt ] rt si tt .
Figura N 3
Modelo ARIMA
| Ii |i tar 1 t |a It tr i ta 1 t | t t !t r | i r s 1It
j a ra m t 1 t |a r |a s st ri t s 1 t Ii t m j t | a t
j rt st r Iar j aIrt r t s t sIati t r a|t s, st ] t r t rt
a r j rt tt st k | | M k | a t j t rm i Ii t ra t It tIa ar
|as j rt t tti t r t s rt Irt j rt t tti t r t s 1 t | | | V
| tt r t | Ii r 1 t j t 1 t r a Ii |i tar m t 1 i as m t ti |t s
si m t I ri t a s t r t | j rt t t st 1 t
1 t st sI a t i t r a | i t a t i t r rt t m j | a t a r | t s
ta|t rt s aIi j i tt s i 1 t r Ii Ii ta1 t s t a I|i t rs .
Identificacin
| t r t | Ii r 1 t ] arar Ii tar |a t sIati t r ari t 1 a1
1 t |a st ri t t r t sIa t Ia j a 1 t | j rt t t st 1 t
1 t st sIa t i t r a |i t a t i t r , t | |t ] a ri Im t
1
1 t |a
st ri t 1 t | t st r 1 i It rt r ti a1 a j t r m t 1 i t 1 t a r
t j t ra 1 t r 1 t 1 i It rt r t i a s t r1 i r a ri a s It
t sIati t r a|t s.
3 La serie es presentada en logaritmo con el objeto de estabilizar la varianza de la misma.
k | t | st rt a r |a Ii ] a ra \ , st j rt st r Ia r |t s
] ra I i t t s 1 t | | t ] a ri I m t 1 t | | r 1 i t t 1 t
| rt 1 a t t i t r i r 1 a sIri a | -| | V |- t r j ri m t ra
1 i It rt r ti a 1 i It rt r ti a t sIati t r a| 1 t t r1 t r
I
\
. | r t | | t s st j a t 1 t t | st rt a r | a t | a
1 i It rt r ti a t sIati t r a| m a t sIra a r a m t r t r
tari ar ta | a t |a st ri t t r j ri m t ra 1 i It rt r ti a.
|r t | | | V |, |a t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 ] t r t ra | a t |as
tari ati t r t s t r 1 t tt m t st s -st ri t tt r a r a
Figura N 4
1 i It rt r t i a t sI a t i t r a | - r t st r I a r
j rt r a r t i a 1 a s si st t t m j a ra r t t r | a s
t a ri a t i t r t s m t r sa a | t s, t sI t | t t | t t s
j rt t t t a 1 t j t r | a t t r t i t rIt s j t ri t 1 t s
t sIa t i t r a | t s | a j rt 1 a t t i t r a a m t r Ia t
1 i sm i r a t tt r si 1 t ra| |t m t r It , j rt tt tar 1 t
t a ri a t i t r t s m t r sa a |t s si ] r i Ii t a Ii t a s 1 t
r aIa ra|t ta r t t tt r t m i ta
!
.
Figura N 5
4 La primera diferencia y la diferencia estacional de orden 12 esta dada por
respectivamente, con x
=log(serie).
5 i.e El IPV F en los meses de marzo, presenta fuertes incrementos en la produccin respecto a febrero, los cuales
fluctan aproximadamente entre 10% y 17 %, efecto provocado por la alta produccin registrada en dicho mes.
x =x
- t
I-

I
x
=x
- t
I- I
,
t ] a r |a ] raIi ta 1 t |a st ri t t ri ] i r a| | | V |, | a t
t sIa r t j rt st r Ia a r j rt tt st t sIati t r ari t ,
j t r |t | a t Ia t rt tt m t r 1 a| |t 1 i It rt r ti ar
1 i t| a st ri t t r |t ] ari Im t tt r t | j rt j t si It
| a t |a m i sm a si ] a a r j rt tt st t sIati t r ari t .
|a st ri t 1 i It rt r ti a1 a st j a t 1 t t | st rtar t r
t | ] raIi tt 1 t | | | V | t r j ri m t ra 1 i It rt r ti a,
Ii ] a ra !, |a ta a| m a t sIra a r tt m j t rIam i t r It
m a s t sIa t i t r a ri t si r t t i 1 t r t i a r a |] a r a
It r 1 t r ti a. i r t m | ar] t , aa r j rt st r Ia a r a
m a rt a 1 a t sIa t i t r a | i 1 a 1 , | t | a t j t 1 ri a
i r 1 i tar | a t |a st ri t 1 i It rt r ti a1 a 1 t | t st r
1 i It rt r t i a 1 a t sIa t i t r a |m t r It -t r1 t r I -
j ara t |i m i r ar |t s ti t|t s. |a Ii ] a ra t, m a t sIra
|a st ri t t r |t ] a ri Im t 1 t | | | V | t t r a r a
j ri m t ra 1 i I t rt r t i a a r a 1 i It rt r t i a
t sIati t r a| 1 t t r1 t r I
t
, t r |a ta a| r t st
aj rt ti a a|] a r j aIrt r t sIati t r a|.
Figura N 6
6 sta esta dada por
I
x
I
| t m t |a t | st rtati t r 1 i rt tIa 1 t |a st ri t , asi
t t m t t | t sIa 1 i t 1 t | t t rrt |t ] ra m a , st r
i r sIra m t r It s t m j i ri t t s j a ra 1 t It t Ia r |a
j rt st r ti a 1 t rai t a r i Iari a, t sIt s j a t 1 t r st r
i m j rt ti st s j t r |t | a t t s r t tt sari t aj t arst
t r tt r IrasIt aj rt j i a1 t s j ara |a 1 t It tti t r
1 t j rt st r ti a 1 t t sIati t r ari t 1 a1 asi j t 1 t r
1 t It rm i r a r | a t ] ra 1 t 1 t 1 i It rt r t i a t i t r
rt | a i t rt |a st ri t j a ra |a t sIi m a t i t r 1 t |
m t 1 t |t k | M k .
|| j rt ] ram a X I k | | M k rt a|i ta It sIs 1 t rai t
a r i I a ri a j a ra 1 t I t t I a r t | ] ra 1 t 1 t
1 i It rt r ti ati t r , t s 1 t ti r, j ara 1 t It rm i r ar si
|a st ri t 1 t | t st r 1 i It rt r ti a1 a t r t , si |a
1 i It rt r ti ati t r 1 t | t st r 1 t j ri m t r t r1 t r I
t j ri m t r t r1 t r t sIati t r a|
I
. |r t | ta a1 rt ,
st j rt st r Ia t | rt sa |Ia1 t t | It r i 1 t a Iratt s
1 t | j rt ] ram a X I k | | M k t | ta a| i r 1 i ta | a t
|a st ri t 1 t | t It r t r a r a 1 i It rt r ti a t r1 i r ari a
a r a 1 i It rt r ti a t sIati t r a|.
Cuadro N 1
|a t ] t , a Iratt s 1 t | j rt ] ram a X I k | | M k , st
rt a |i t t |a t |t t t i t r 1 t | m t }t r m t 1 t |t a
a Ii |i t a r st ] a r t | t ri It ri t 1 t i r It rm a t i t r
| a t si a r a t | a rt | | | , 1 t r 1 t st
t sI i m a rt r I m t 1 t | t s st rt a | i t t a r
rar | i r ] 1 t |t s ti r tt m t }t rt s, t | m t 1 t |t
t |t ] i 1 t Ia t a r k | | M k 1 1 , t s 1 t ti r,
a r m t 1 t |t tt r a r a 1 i It rt r ti a t r1 i r ari a, a r a
1 i It rt r t i a t sIa t i t r a |, a r a m t 1 i a m t t i |
t r1 i r ari a a r a m t 1 i a m t ti | t sIati t r a|.
|| m t 1 t |t a t sIi m ar st t tj rt sa tt m t .
| t r 1 t t s |a st ri t t sIati t r ari a
Estimacin y verificacin
|| m t 1 t |t t |t ] i 1 t Ia t t sIi m a1 t j t r m ati m a
tt rt si m i |i Ia 1 ta t s rt sa |Ia1 t s st m a t sIrar
t r t | t a a 1 rt I , 1 t r 1 t | t s j a ra m t I rt s
t sIi m a1 t s st r .
7 Eventualmente podra tener un grado de diferenciacin mayor
Cuadro N 2
Results of Unit Root Test for identifying orders of differencing:
| t ] a |ar 1 i IIt rt r tt t r1 t r.
t ast r a| 1 i IIt rt r tt t r1 t r.
| t sa |Ia1 t t | It r i 1 t a Iratt s 1 t | j rt ] ram a X I ARIMA
I
|t ] IPVF
q
= 1,I!I!
Q
= 1,I1II
Y
t
= - q
B - Q
B
12
e
t
ARIMA Model: (0 1 1)(0 1 1)12, Nonseasonal differences: 1, Seasonal differences: 1
| aram t It r |a] |sIi m aIt |rrt r t sIar 1 ar I | r - I
K t r st ast r a| M k 1,I!I! 1, 1\I1 I,\t1 1,1 !I
t ast r a| M k I 1,I1II 1,11I1 ,1!1 1,11111
Vari ar tt 1,111 1 | | |
| t I Var 1,11111 1! ,I
|a t r It . ||a| t rati t r j rt j i a
|| m t 1 t |t st j a t 1 t t stri | i r tt m t .
| r a tt t t sIi m a1 t t | m t 1 t |t a a Ii |i tar j ara
rt a | i t a r | a s j rt t t t i t r t s
rt Irt j rt t tti t r t s j ara t | a st 1 t m t 1 i as
m t ti |t s si m t Iri tas j rt 1 t ti r ta|t rt s t r t |
tast 1 t | a t st t r ta t r Irt r t a I|i t rs j ara t |
j rt tt st 1 t 1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r , st 1 t | t r
ar a|i tar |t s j aram t Irt s, |t s rt si 1 a t s tt r |a
ta|i 1 a1 1 t | a}a sIt 1 t | m t 1 t |t k | | M k . ||
ar a|i si s j ri r ti j a| st tt r Ira t r |t s rt si 1 a t s,
j t rt st 1 t | t tt r si 1 t rar t | ar a|i si s 1 t |a
| t r 1 a1 1 t | a}a sIt 1 t | m t 1 t |t t sIi m a1 t t |
ar a|i si s 1 t |t s j aram t Irt s 1 t | m t 1 t |t .
|r t | ta a1 rt I, st j a t 1 t t | st rtar | a t |t s
j aram t Irt s t sIi m a1 t s st r si ] r i Ii taIi tt s, a
| a t |t s j ta|a t s st r m t r t rt s a ! X , j t r |t
| a t | a } t | a | i j t I t si s r a | a 1 t | a t | t s
j aram t Irt s t sIi m a1 t s st r i ] a a|t s a tt rt
,
t ti sIt sa Ii ti t r It t ti 1 t r ti a t sIa1 i sIi ta tt m t
j ara rt t| atar H
0
, j t r |t | a t |t s j aram t Irt s
t sIi m a1 t s st ri ar a1 t ta a1 t s.
Anlisis de los residuos
| a ra a st ] a ra r | a t a | i 1 a 1 1 t | m t 1 t | t
t sIi m a1 t , st 1 t | t rt a|i tar a r ar a|i si s 1 t |t s
rt si 1 a t s tt r t | t | }t It 1 t ast ] a rar | a t t ||t s
st a r ra i 1 t | | a r t t | i I t r t i st , j a ra
tt ri Ii tar t sa tt r 1 i ti t r t s r t tt sari t | a t |t s
rt si 1 a t s st a r i r 1 t j t r 1 i t r I t s r t
t t rrt |a t i t r a 1 t s t t a si t r a |m t r It si ] a r
a r a 1 i sIri | a ti t r r t rm a|
1
.
| ara 1 t It rm i r ar si |t s rt si 1 a t s 1 t | m t 1 t |t
st r ra i 1 t | | a r t t , st a Ii | i t t t | It sI 1 t
i r 1 t j t r 1 t r ti a 1 t |}a r ] | t t |t s It sIs 1 t
r t rm a|i 1 a1 1 t !ar| a t | t ra | aj i rt -wi || .
|r t | ta a1 rt 1, 1 t ata t r1 t a |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s
st j a t 1 t t t r t |a i r | a t |t s rt si 1 a t s st r
i r 1 t j t r 1 i t r It s a | a t r t st rt t | a t a |a
| i j t It si s r a |a 1 t i r 1 t j t r 1 t r ti a, a1 t m as t |
It sI 1 t !a r| a t | t ra | a j i rt wi || r t s
i r 1 i t a ri a r | a t | t s rt si 1 a t s si ] a t r a r
t t m j t rI a m i t r I t r t rm a | , a si m i sm t si
t | st rtam t s t | | i sIt ] ram a 1 t |t s rt si 1 a t s
t | It sI r t rm a| j |t I, st j a t 1 t t | st rtar
| a t | a st ri t Ii t r t a r t t m j t rIa m i t r It
r t rm a|, j t r |t | a t st j t 1 ri a 1 t ti r | a t |t s
rt si 1 a t s st r ra i 1 t | |ar tt . k |a tt t, tt r t |
Ii r 1 t a st ] a ra r | a t | t s rt si 1 a t s st a r
t sIati t r ari t s st |t aj |i tt a r It sI 1 t | | i ||i j s
| t rrt r t | ta a| rt t| att |a j rt st r ti a 1 t rai t
a r i Iari a j t r m t 1 i t 1 t | It sI 1 t |}a r ] | t t a
| t s rt si 1 a t s a | t a a 1 ra 1 t I a m | i t r st
tt r t|a t | a t st r i r 1 t j t r 1 i t r It s, |t | a t
tt r Ii rm ari a |a t ti sIt r ti a 1 t ra i 1 t | |ar tt . k
|att t, tt r t | Ii r 1 t ast ] a rar | a t |t s rt si 1 a t s
st ar t sIati t r ari t s st |t aj |i tt a r It sI 1 t
| | i ||i j s | t rrt r t | ta a| rt t| att |a j rt st r ti a
1 t rai t a r i Iari a j t r m t 1 i t 1 t | It sI 1 t |}a r ]
| t t a |t s rt si 1 a t s a| ta a1 ra1 t Iam | i t r st
tt r t|a t | a t st r i r 1 t j t r 1 i t r It s, |t | a t
tt r Ii rm ari a |a t ti sIt r ti a 1 t ra i 1 t | |ar tt t r
|t s rt si 1 a t s.
8 Las hiptesis a testear para ver la significancia de los parmetros son:
H
0
:q
1
=0
H
1
:q
1
0
H
0
:Q
1
=0
H
1
:Q
1
0
Si rechazamos H
0
, a un nivel de significancia de a% , implica que los parmetros estimados son distintos de cero y
por lo tanto son significativos
9 Ver Anlisis Economtrico, 3ra ed., Pg. 710, Green
Y
t
= -1,I!I! e
t -1
- 1,I1II e
t -12
1,I1\1 e
t -13
e
t
I\ Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
| a1 t | a t |t s j aram t Irt s 1 t | m t 1 t |t st r
si ] r i Ii taIi tt s | a t |t s rt si 1 a t s st r ra i 1 t
| |ar tt , st tt r t|a t | a t t | m t 1 t |t t sIi m a1 t
t a m j | t t t r | t s rt | a i si I t s j a ra j t 1 t r
m t 1 t |ar |a st ri t | a}t t sIa 1 i t .
Aplicacin del Efecto Calendario
k I ra t t s 1 t | j rt ] ra m a X I k | | M k 1 t |
| t r sa s | a rt a a , st t sI i m t t | t I t t I t
ta|t r 1 ari t ast ti a1 t a| | | V |, j ara Ia| t It tIt
st tt r si 1 t rt t | ta|t r 1 ari t | | i |t r t t r Irt |t s
a1 t s 1! I1 t, tt r t | Ii r 1 t t sIi m ar It 1 t s
a| a t ||t s t It tIt s 1 t It rm i r i sIi tt s | a t ] t r t ra
|a tt m j t si ti t r 1 t | ta|t r 1 ari t | | i |t r t . |r
t | ta a1 rt \, st j rt st r Iar |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s 1 t
1 i t| a t sIi m ati t r .
Cuadro N 3
Jarque Bera Test
| aIa X-s| a art 1 1 I j -ta|a t
| t si 1 a t s 1,1I I 1,I1I
1
1
. |ti sIt r t rm a|i 1 a1 1
. r t t ti sIt r t rm a|i 1 a1
Shapiro Wilk Test
| aIa w j -ta|a t
| t si 1 a t s 1,1\ 1.t1 1
1
1
. |ti sIt r t rm a|i 1 a1 1
. r t t ti sIt r t rm a|i 1 a1
Box-Pierce test
| aIa X-s| a art 1 1 I j -ta|a t
| t si 1 a t s 1,11\\ 1,1\I
1
1
. |ti sIt i r 1 t j t r 1 t r ti a 1
. r t t ti sIt i r 1 t j t r 1 t r ti a
Cuadro N 4
Regression Model
| aram t Irt |rrt r
Vari a| |t t sIi m a1 t t sIar 1 ar I-ta|a t |-ta|a t
| t r sIar I -1,11 t 1,111! -1,1 1,1111
| i si t sIt 1,111\ 1,11\ \,1 1,111
| st r 1 t Ii r t 1 .
|a r t s -1,11 1,11I1 -1,! 1,tIt
M arIt s 1,11\t 1,11II I, 1,11!
M i t rtt |t s 1,11\1 1,11I\ ,1 1,1I1I
!a t tt s 1,11I1 1,11I! 1,1 1,11\1
Vi t rr t s -1,111t 1,11It - ,\ 1, t\t
a| a1 t -1,11II 1.11I\ - , 1,It I
|t ri a1 t s -1,1 tt 1,11II -I,I 1,1111
Va|t r | ri Ii tt !X = .1t Va|t r | ri Ii tt 1X = .t!
Chi-squared Tests for Groups of Regressors
1 I | | i -s| a art | -ta|a t
| st r-1 t Ii r t 1 I I!,\I 1,1111
| t m | i r t 1 | t ] rt sst rs I 11,1 1,1111
I! Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
| t ata t r1 t a |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s j rt st r Ia1 t s t r
t | t a a 1 rt ! , t | m t 1 t | t 1 t rt ] rt si t r
t sIi m a1 t m a t sIra, a a r r i tt | 1 t si ] r i Ii tar ti a
1 t ! X , | a t |t s tt t Ii ti t r It s ast ti a1 t s a |t s
1 i as m arIt s, }a t tt s, It sIi tt s a1 t | i si t sIt
Ia t rt r si ] r i Ii t a Ii tt s, t | 1 i a m i t rt t |t s st
tt r si 1 t ra si ] r i Ii taIi tt a| IX 1 t si ] r i Ii tar ti a.
i r t m | ar] t , |t s j aram t Irt s t sIi m a1 t s j ara
|t s 1 i as |a r t s, ti t rr t s
1
sa| a1 t s r t Ia t rt r
si ] r i Ii taIi tt s, t s 1 t ti r r t t ti sIt t ti 1 t r ti a
t sIa 1 i sIi t a t t m t j a ra 1 t t i r | a t 1 i t | t
j a ra m t I rt s st r 1 i sI i r I t s 1 t t t rt . K t
t | sIar It |t ar It ri t r, It 1 t s |t s tt t Ii ti t r It s
Ia t rt r 1 t si ] r t t sj t ra1 t j ara a r i r 1 i ta1 t r
1 t j rt 1 a t t i t r , a 1 t m a s |t s j a ra m t Irt s
1 t Ii r i 1 t s j t r t | a sa a ri t a st r-1 t Ii r t 1 ,
ast ti a1 t s a |t s 1 i as 1 t |a st m ar a It ri a1 t s
Ira 1 i r ] 1 a Ia t rt r si ] r i Ii t a Ii tt s t r sa
tt r }a r It , a| i ] a a| | a t 1 i t| t s j aram t Irt s
}a r It tt r t | a1 t | i si t sIt tt m | i r t 1 Ira1 i r ]
1 a a r 1 | t a j t a r rt ] rt sst rs , | a t
] |t | a|m t r It Ia t rt r si ] r i Ii taIi tt s tt r a r j
ta|a t 1 t 1 X .
|r rt |ati t r a |t s si ] r t s 1 t |t s j aram t Irt s
t sI i m a 1 t s, t t m t st m t r t i t r t
a r I t ri t rm t r I t I a t rt r | t s t sj t ra 1 t s,
r t ] a I i t t j a ra | t s 1 i a s | a r t s, t i t rr t s,
sa| a1 t s It ri a1 t s. || 1 i a |a r t s, j t r t }t m j |t ,
t s t | 1 i a | a t Ii t r t m at r i r ti 1 t r ti a t r |as
Ia |Ia s a Ira st s |a | t ra |t s, t | t i t rr t s st
t sj t rari a a r a 1 i sm i r a ti t r t r |a j rt 1 a tti t r
a | a t ] t r t ra|m t r It |t s | t rari t s st r a|] t
m a s rt 1 a t i 1 t s | t s I ra | a } a 1 t rt s
1 i sm i r a i ri ar sa j rt 1 a tIi ti 1 a1 a |a t sj t ra 1 t |
1 t star st 1 t Ii r 1 t st m ar a. |t s 1 i as sa| a1 t s
It sIi tt s, st r 1 i as | a t Iam | i t r Irat r a r a
1 i sm i r a ti t r t r |a j rt 1 a tti t r , a | a t r t
It 1 as |as j t rst r as Ira| a}ar |t s sa| a1 t s |t s
1 i as It ri a1 t s ] rar j arIt 1 t |as t m j rt sas r t
a| rt r t r t sIt s Ii j t s 1 t It t| as. | t r sa j arIt ,
|t s tt t Ii ti t r It s ast ti a1 t s a |t s 1 i as m arIt s,
m i t rt t |t s, }a t t t s a 1 t | i si t sIt Ia t rt r
j t si Ii tt s. |t s 1 i as m arIt s, m i t rtt |t s }a t tt s
st taratIt ri tar j t r st r |t s m as j rt 1 a tIi tt s
t r |as t m j rt sas. || a1 t | i si t sIt a| It r t r |a
j a rIi t a |a ri 1 a 1 1 t It r t r a r 1 i a m a s t a 1 a
ta aIrt a1 t s, i r trt m t r Ia |a j rt 1 a tti t r a
| a t |as t m j rt sas j rt 1 a tt r a r 1 i a a1 i ti t r a|
t r t st j t ri t 1 t .
|a st ri t tt rrt ] i 1 a 1 t t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t 1 i as
Ira| a}a1 t s, It ri a1 t s a1 t | i si t sIt st 1 t Ii r t
tt m t .
10 El da viernes se puede considerar significativo con un nivel de significancia cercano al 16 %.
Y
*
t
= Y
t
- K
t
= Y
t
- b
i

X
1
i,t
- X
7,t
b
N
t
I
b
I
LY
t
~
t
i=
i=
t
X
i,t
I
-1,I!t (It | rt rt a1 t r t | i si t sIt

-1,I!t (It | rt rt a1 t | i si t sIt . |It tIt ast ti a1 t a |a |t r ] i Ia 1 1 t | m t s
-1,I!t (a| m t s 1 t It | rt rt
| t r 1 t .
. |s a r IatIt r aIri | a i | |t a| t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t
. K a m t rt 1 t 1 i as r t It ri a1 t s 1 t | Ii j t i t r t | m t s t
. K a m t rt 1 t 1 i as It ri a1 t s t r t | m t s t
. t ri t tt rrt ] i 1 a 1 t |t s t It tIt s 1 t | ta|t r 1 ari t
It Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
Filtrado de la Serie -IPVF-, a travs del
Modulo X11
11
k r I t s 1 t t } t t a I a r t | j rt t t st 1 t
1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r 1 t | | | V |, st It sIt t |a
j rt st r ti a 1 t t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 1 t |a m i sm a, a
I ra t t s 1 t | t s I t sI 1 t j rt st r t i a 1 t
t sIa t i t r a |i 1 a 1 t sIa | |t , 1 t j rt st r t i a 1 t
t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 t tt |a Ii ta t | r t j aram t Iri tt
1 t | ra s| a |-wa ||i s, t sIt s It sIs st rt a |i t a r
st | rt |a tt m j t r t r It t sIati t r a|-i rrt ] a |ar
si r m t 1 i Ii t a t i t r t s Ia | | a | . 1 t | X I ,
a 1 i t i t r a | m t r I t st t a | t a | t t | I t sI 1 t
t sIa t i t r a |i 1 a 1 t sIa | |t a |a st ri t t ri ] i r a |
a }a sIa 1 a j t r t It t It t a |t r 1 a ri t Ia | |a | .
j ri t r a1 }a sIt 1 | t ] k ri m a , t ti 1 t r ti ar 1 t |a
j rt st r ti a 1 t t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 1 t |a st ri t .
|r t | ta a1 rt !, st j rt st r Ia |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s 1 t
|t s It sIs m t r ti t r a1 t s ar It ri t rm t r It , j ara
1 t It rm i r ar si |a st ri t t s t sIati t r a|, st 1 t | t
st ] a i r t | t s| a t m a 1 t j rt st r t i a 1 t
t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 i 1 t r Ii Ii ta| |t , t | ta a| m a t sIra
| t s j a st s a st ] a i r j a ra i 1 t r I i I i t a r
t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 t r |a st ri t .
11 Para un anlisis ms detallado ver Desestacionalizacin X12 ARIMA- con efecto calendario, ndice de Supermercados,
Cortez Juan M.; Instituto Nacional de Estadsticas de Chile.
Cuadro N 5
Test for the presence of seasonality assuming stability,
a m t I | t ] rt t s t I M t ar
| a art s |rt t 1 t m | a art |-Va|a t
| t It t r m t r I| s II1,I ,I! !!,t!t
| t si 1 a a| !\,1I It 1,I
t Ia| II,11 I j -ta|a t 1,1111
. t ast r a|i I j rt st r I aI I| t 1, j t r tt r I |t tt |
Moving Seasonality Test
| a art s |rt t 1 t m | a art |-Va|a t
| t It t r Yt ars I,t t 1,\! 1,I1I
|rrt r 1I,1\ tt 1,!t
j -ta|a t 1,!I!I
. K t t ti 1 t r tt t I m t ti r ] st ast r a|i I aI I| t Ii tt j t rtt r I |t tt |
Nonparametric Test for the presence of Seasonality Assuming Stability
| ra s| a|-wa||i s | t ] rt t s t I | rt | a| i |i I
IaIi sIi t |rt t 1 t m |t tt |
I, 1 1,1111
. t ast r a|i I j rt st r I aI I| t t r t j t r tt r I |t tt |
| t m | i r t 1 t sI It r I| t j rt st r tt t I i 1 t r Ii Ii a| |t st ast r a|i I
| 1 t r Ii Ii a| |t st ast r a|i I j rt st r I
|| j ri m t r j ast t s rt a|i tar t | It sI 1 t j rt st r ti a
1 t t sIa t i t r a |i 1 a 1 t sIa | |t , a a r r i tt | 1 t
si ] r i Ii tar ti a 1 t a r 1, X , tt m t st aj rt ti a t r
t | ta a1 rt !, t | It sI j rt st r Ia a r j ta|a t m a
j t | a t 1 t , m t r t r a| 1, X , j t r |t | a t t ti sIt
sa Ii ti t r It t ti 1 t r ti a t sIa1 i sIi ta tt m t j ara
rt t | a t a r 1 1 , j t r | t | a t | a s m t 1 i a s
t sIati t r a|t s 1 t | i r 1 i ta1 t r r t st r t sIa| |t s,
t s 1 t t i r, t t i sIt t sIa t i t r a |i 1 a 1 . |a t ] t st
j rt tt 1 i t a rt a|i tar t | It sI 1 t j rt st r ti a 1 t
t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 t tt |a Ii ta, t | ta a| tt r a r r i tt |
1 t si ] r i Ii tar ti a 1 t !X , t | It sI r t rt t| ata 1 1
tt r a r j ta|a t tt rtar t a !X , j t r |t | a t
r t t ti sIt r i r ] a r a tt m j t r t r It t sIati t r a|
t t t | a I i t a , r t t | sI a r I t | t a r I t ri t r, t |
t s| a t m a j |ar It a tt r t | t sIa1 i sIi tt ,

I
,
t a t s rt sa | I a 1 t s st j rt st r I a r a
tt r Ii r a ati t r .
t ] a r a | t s| a t m a 1 t j rt st r t i a 1 t
t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 i 1 t r Ii Ii ta| |t , si t | t sIa1 i sIi tt
r t rt t| att |a | i j t It si s r a |a - H
1
-, |t
| a t i r 1 i t a | a t r t | a t sI a t i t r a | i 1 a 1
i 1 t r Ii Ii ta| |t . | i t| t t sIa1 i sIi tt t r t | | | V |
j rt st r It a r ta |t r 1 t 1 , I 1 I , j t r |t | a t
rt t| atam t sH
1
, |a t ] t j ara ast ] a rarst 1 t |t s
rt sa | I a 1 t s st 1 t | t r t | st rt a r | t s
Cuadro N 6
t sIa1 i sIi tt s T

T
I
j t r st j art , t r t | tast | a t
T

t T
I
, r t st rt t | a t a H
1
j rt | a | |t m t r It r t t t i sIa t sIa t i t r a |i 1 a 1
i 1 t r Ii Ii ta| |t , t r tast tt r Irari t , tt m t t s t |
tast 1 t | | | V | |t s t sIa1 i sIi tt s T

,T
I
- , j t r
|t | a t st rt t| ata H
1
st 1 t | t j asar a |a
a |Ii m a t Iaj a 1 t t ta|a ati t r m t 1 i ar It t | It sI
r t j a ra m t Iri t t 1 t | ra s| a |-wa ||i s, t a t
rt sa |Ia1 t i r 1 i ta | a t t | i r 1 i tt 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r
-| | V |- j rt st r Ia t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 a a r r i tt | 1 t
X , tt r t|a t r 1 t | a t 1 i t| a st ri t j rt st r Ia
a r tt m j t rIam i t r It t sIati t r a|, t | ta a| 1 t | t
st r tt rrt ] i 1 t j t r m t 1 i t 1 t | a|] t ri Im t X
1 t | j rt ] ram a X I k | | M k .
k | rt a | i t a r t | j rt t t st 1 t
1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r , st 1 t | t 1 t It rm i r ar
| a t Ii j t 1 t m t 1 t | t si ] a t | a st ri t , a r
m t 1 t |t m a |Ii j |i taIi tt t a r m t 1 t |t a1 i Ii tt ,
j ara t sj t ti Ii tar|t t r t | j rt ] ram a X I k | | M k
j ara | a t t }t ta It t | j rt tt st . k | st r a r i r 1 i tt
1 t j rt 1 a t t i t r , t | t a a | j rt st r I a
t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 It r 1 t r ti a trt ti t r It -tt r t |
] ra Ii t t 1 t |a st ri t t ri ] i r a |, Ii ] a ra -, st
j t 1 ri a 1 t ti r | a t |a st ri t si ] a t a r m t 1 t |t
m a |Ii j |i taIi tt . | ] a a| rt sa |Ia1 t st t | Ia tt , a|
a I i | i t a r t | M t I t 1 t 1 t k r a | i si s 1 t | a s
| i It rt r ti as | t ti t r It s |sIati t r a|t s , ta a
rt ] |a 1 t 1 t t i si t r t s si t | t t t Ii t i t r It 1 t
tari ati t r t r 1 i It rt r ti as CV
1
t s m at r a|
tt t Ii ti t r It 1 t tari ati t r t r tt ti t r It s CV
1
t | m t 1 t | t st ra m a | Ii j | i t a Ii t t , t r t a st
tt r Irari t |a st ri t si ] a t a r m t 1 t |t a1 i Ii tt .
|r t | ta a1 rt t, st j rt st r Iar |a 1 t sti ati t r t s
t sIar 1 ar, |as m t 1 i as |t s tt t Ii ti t r It s 1 t
t a ri a t i t r t r 1 i It rt r t i a s t r t t t i t r It s,
1 t r 1 t st j a t 1 t t | st rtar | a t t | CV
1
- CV
t
,
j t r |t | a t |a st ri t | | V | si ] a t a r m t 1 t |t
Diferencias Cocientes
| t sti ati t r |sIar 1 ar !,t 1,1!
M t 1 i a \,1! ,1\
| t t Ii ti t r It s 1 t Vari ati t r ,11 1,1!
T

= = =1,1\!1
I
F
S
I
!!,t!t
T
I
= = =1,1 !\
1F
M
F
S
1 1,I1I
!!,t!t
T= = =1, I1I
T

+T
I
I

1,1\!1 1,1 !\
I

m a |Ii j |i taIi tt .
|i r a|m t r It , 1 t It rm i r ar 1 t | a t |a st ri t Ii t r t
t sIa t i t r a |i 1 a 1 , t sIa | |t t i t r 1 t t | Ii j t 1 t
m t 1 t |t a a Ii |i tar a r a tt t | a t |a st ri t a
Ia t |i m j i a1 a 1 t |t s t It tIt s ta|t r 1 ari t s
t a I|i t rs, st j rt tt 1 t tt r t | Ii |Ira1 t 1 t |a
st ri t , t s 1 t t i r, t t r t | j rt t t st 1 t
1 t st sIa t i t r a |i t a t i t r j rt j i a m t r It Ia |, a
Iratt s 1 t | m t 1 a |t X 1 t | j rt ] ram a X I
k | | M k , t | ta a| a Ii |i ta m t 1 i as m t ti |t s.
Resultados del proceso de
desestacionalizacin -IPV F-
|r t sIa st tti t r st m a t sIrar |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s
t | I t r i 1 t s 1 t | j rt t t st 1 t
1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r tt r t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t ,
j rt st r Iar 1 t |as 1 i It rt r It s tt m j t r t r It s
1 t | | | V |, | t s I t sI s 1 t j rt st r t i a 1 t
t sI a t i t r a | i 1 a 1 1 t | a st ri t
1 t st sIa t i t r a |i t a 1 a , a si t t m t |t s It sI 1 t
ta|i 1 a1 1 t a}a sIt | a t t r Irt ] a t | j rt ] ram a
X I k | | M k . k 1 t m as st j rt st r Iar |as st ri t s,
t ri ] i r a | 1 t st sIa t i t r a | i t a 1 a , t r Irt t |
j t ri t 1 t m a t I 1 1 I a | ri | I 1 1 1 t t r sa s
rt sj t t Ii t a s Ia sa s 1 t t a ri a t i t r , a Ii r 1 t
rt a|i tar a r ar a|i si s tt m j araIi tt t r Irt am | as.
Serie desestacionalizada
y sus componentes
|r |a Ii ] a ra t, st m a t sIrar |as 1 i It rt r It s
tt m j t r t r It s 1 t |a st ri t 1 t | | V | }a r It tt r
|a st ri t 1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a.
|a tt m j t r t r It 1 t It r 1 t r ti a-ti t|t
I
, ] raIi tt
a , j rt st r Ia a r tt m j t rIam i t r It trt ti t r It
| a sI a I i r a | t s 1 t I 1 1 I , t t r a | ] a r t s
t sI a r t a m i t r I t s t r | a I t r 1 t r t i a 1 t |
i r 1 i ta1 t r j ara ti t rIt s j t ri t 1 t s, t r t | a1 t
I 1 1 st t | st rt a a r m a rt a 1 t ri I m t 1 t
1 t satt |t rati t r tt r a r Ia t rIt tam | i t t r |a
It r 1 t r ti a | a t st j rt Ia r 1 i ta j rt |t r ] a t r
t | Irar sta rst 1 t I111, ] t r t ra1 t j t r m t r t r
1 t m ar 1 a t tIt rr a t i r It rr a j rt | |t m as 1 t
t It rIa | a t |a i r 1 a sIri a 1 t | sa |m t r t i t r t
sa I ri t r 1 t 1 t s1 t t | I 1 1 I . | r t | j ri m t r
Iri m t sIrt 1 t I111 st t | st rta a r a ta rta m as
j |ar a, | a t st ast ti a a a r m t r t r 1 i r am i sm t
m t sI ra 1 t t r t | st t I t r j t r m a t r
t t m j t I t r t i a t r ra m a s j rt 1 a t I i t a s
1 t 1 i ta1 as a |a sa sIi Ia ti t r 1 t i m j t rIati t r t s
m t r t r a t Ii t i 1 a 1 t r a |] a r t s st t It rt s
t tj t rIa1 t rt s 1 t |a i r 1 a sIri a, a j arIi r 1 t |
st ] a r 1 t Iri m t sIrt 1 t I111 | asIa t | It rtt r
Iri m t sIrt 1 t I 1 1 \ st t | st rt a a r a m a t r
1 i r a m i t a 1 t |a i r 1 a sIri a m a r a Ia t Ia rt ra
|i ] a1 a a| | a t r 1 t st m j t 1 t 1 t |t s st tIt rt s
t ri t r Ia1 t s a| m t rta1 t t tIt rr t a Ii r a|t s 1 t |
j t ri t 1 t j t r t | | a t r 1 t st m j t 1 t 1 t | a
m at ri a 1 t |as ram as 1 t |a i r 1 a sIri a, t r Irt
t | a1 t I11! |a j ri m t ra m i Ia1 1 t I11t st
aj rt ti a a r trt ti m i t r It i m j a |sa1 t t r j arIt
j t r |as ram as |i ] a1 as a| tt r sa m t m t rta1 t
t tIt rr t , t r Irt |a st ] a r 1 a m i Ia1 1 t I11t
It rtt r Iri m t sIrt 1 t I11I st t | st rta a r m at r
atIi ti 1 a1 1 t |a i r 1 a sIri a, t r t sIt i r I|a t t r
] ra r j a rI t , t | ] ra r 1 i r a m i sm t 1 t | a
j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t tt |a |t sa, Ii r a|m t r It t r t |
a1 t I11 | asIa a| ri | 1 t I111 st t | st rta a r a
1 i sm i r a t i t r t r | a t t m j t r t r I t 1 t
It r 1 t r t i a -t i t |t t a a sa 1 a j t r a r a m t r t r
j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t m t Iar t |, i m j atIt 1 t a|It s
tt sIt s 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r |a t r Ira1 a t r |a | ast
1 t t t m j a ra t i t r 1 t |a s a m j |i a t i t r t s 1 t
taj ati 1 a1 1 t j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t |a i r 1 a sIri a 1 t
t t |a |t sa t r t | j ri m t r st m t sIrt 1 t I 1 1 ,
|a t ] t t | m t r t r ri Im t t sIa tt att m j a1 a1 t
j t r |a rt 1 a tti t r 1 t |a 1 t m ar 1 a t tIt rr a, | a t
Ia t |a | a t j rt ] rt si t a m t r It a It t It a |a
i r 1 a sIri a. t t | st rta a r t It tIt i m j t rIar It
t r |a i r 1 a sIri a 1 t |a m a1 t ra. |i ] a1 t a |t
ar It ri t r, j t rt r t 1 t | m i sm t t ri ] t r , t sIa |a
| a}a t ta rri 1 a t r |a j rt 1 a tti t r i r 1 a sIri a| 1 t |
sa|m t r , j t r |as rt j t rta si t r t s | a t Ia tt t r
t ||a t | ti ra s | k . |t s i r 1 i ta1 t rt s ast ti a1 t s
12 Para la estimacin de la componente de tendencia-ciclo se utiliz una media mvil de Henderson de 13 trminos,
con un ratio I/C = , t.
a | a 1 t m a r 1 a i r I t rr a 1 t j rt 1 a t I t s
i r 1 a sI ri a | t s st 1 a | a r | a t | t s t It t I t s
a1 tt rst s st rt ] i sIrart r 1 t s1 t a r i r i ti t t r
a | a t ||a s i r 1 a sIri a s | a t t sIa r t ri t r Ia 1 a s
j ri r ti j a|m t r It a |a t |a| t rati t r 1 t i r sa m t s
j a ra | a t t r sIra t t i t r , t sj t t i a | m t r It | a
j rt 1 a tti t r 1 t | i t rrt tt m t r It .
| a t t m j t r t r It t sIa t i t r a |
1
1 t | | | V | st
j a t 1 t t | st rtar t r t | ] raIi tt | , 1 t r 1 t st
j a t 1 t t | st rtar | a t j ara It 1 t s |t s a1 t s |t s
m t st s 1 t It | rt rt m a rt t st r |t s | a t
j rt st r I a r | a t sI a t i t r a | i 1 a 1 m a s
j rt r a r t i a 1 a a | a | a } a a | a | t a
rt sj t tIi tam t r It , t sIt 1 t | i 1 t a |t s j t ri t 1 t s
1 t tatati t r t s 1 t |t s Ira| a}a1 t rt s Iras|a1 t
1 t |t s j rt tt st s j rt 1 a tIi tt s ar a|t ] am t r It .
|a tt m j t r t r It i rrt ] a |ar st t | st rta t r t |
] ra I i t t t , | a t a a | r t I i t r t a r
tt m j t rIam i t r It m a m arta1 t , m t sIrar 1 t
m at r tt |aIi |i 1 a1 t r Irt |t s a1 t s I11I I111,
si t r 1 t t sIa m as rt 1 a ti 1 a j ara t | j t ri t 1 t
j t sIt ri t r.
| t r a |Ii m t st j rt st r Ia t | rt sa |Ia 1 t 1 t |
j rt tt st 1 t 1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r j t r m t 1 i t
1 t | j rt ] ram a X I k | | M k , tt r ] raIi tt 1 , t |
ta a| st m a t sIra |a st ri t t ri ] i r a| |i r t a rt }a
1 t | | | V | }a r It t t r sa rt sj t t Ii t a st ri t
1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a |i r t a r t ] ra , t r 1 i t| t
] ra Ii t t st j a t 1 t t | st rt a r | a t |a st ri t
1 t st sI a t i t r a | i t a 1 a j rt st r I a a r
t t m j t rI a m i t r I t m a s sa a t t , r t
rt ] i sIrar 1 t st |t s a|It s j t a| s si m as | a t st
t | st rtar t r |a st ri t t ri ] i r a| j rt 1 a tIt 1 t |a
t sIa t i t r a |i 1 a 1 t | st rt a 1 a t r |a i r 1 a sIri a
m a r a I a t I a rt ra , | t | a t j t rm i I t t t r t |
tt m j t rIam i t r It t tt r t m i tt 1 t tt rIt j |att
1 t a r m t s a t Irt , tt r |t s j a r It s 1 t ] i rt
| a t j rt st r Ia |a 1 i r a m i t a 1 t |a i r 1 a sIri a
m ar a IatIa rt ra, |a It r 1 t r ti a 1 t tt rIt |ar] t
j | a t t , | t s t i t | t s t t t r t m i t t s | a t
t tj t ri m t r Ia |a atIi ti 1 a1 .
Anlisis de la Calidad de Ajuste
de la Desestacionalizacin
| t r t | a i 1 t t | j rt t t st 1 t
1 t st sIati t r a|i tati t r st 1 t | t i 1 t r Ii Ii tar si
|a st ri t tt rrt ] i 1 a j rt st r Ia t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 ,
t sIt st j a t 1 t t | st rtar a Iratt s 1 t |t s It sIs
1 t j rt st r ti a 1 t t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 rt si 1 a a|, tt r
ta a1 rt , |t s ta a|t s i r 1 i tart r | a t r t t ti sIt
t t i 1 t r t i a 1 t t sIa t i t r a |i 1 a 1 t r |a st ri t
tt rrt ] i 1 a 1 t t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 a a r r i tt | 1 t
si ] r i Ii tar ti a 1 t X , a1 t m as j ara |t s a |Ii m t s
I rt s a 1 t s I a m j t t t st i 1 t r I i I i t a
t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 t r |a st ri t Iar It a| !X tt m t
a| X , |t | a t i r 1 i ta | a t |a st ri t r t j rt st r Ia
t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 .
Cuadro N 7
13 Para la estimacin de la componente estacional se utiliz una media mvil de 3 5, con un ratio I/S =!,\I.
Test for the presence of residual seasonality
K t t ti 1 t r tt t I rt si 1 a a| st ast r a|i I i r I| t t r Ii rt st ri t s aI I| t j t r tt r I |t tt |. | = 1, I
K t t ti 1 t r tt t I rt si 1 a a| st ast r a|i I i r I| t |asI 1 t ars aI I| t j t r tt r I |t tt |. | = 1,
K t t ti 1 t r tt t I rt si 1 a a| st ast r a|i I i r I| t |asI 1 t ars aI I| t ! j t r tt r I |t tt |.
K t It . sa 1 1 t r |ar] t t| ar ] t s i r I| t |t tt | t I I| t a1 }a sIt 1 st ri t s i || i r ta|i 1 aIt I| i s It sI
It r I| t |asI I| rt t t ar j t ri t 1 .
k 1 i t i t r a | m t r I t , st t a | t a | t t | I t sI 1 t
j rt st r ti a 1 t t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 i 1 t r Ii Ii ta| |t
j ara |a st ri t 1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a, a Iratt s 1 t
ar a|i si s 1 t tari ar ta 1 t a r IatIt r, ta a1 rt ,
1 t | t a a | st 1 t sj rt r 1 t | a t | a st ri t r t
j rt st r I a t sI a t i t r a | i 1 a 1 , a | a t r t st
rt t| ata |a | i j t It si s r a |a 1 t j rt st r ti a 1 t
t sIati t r a|i 1 a1 t sIa| |t tt r a r j ta|a t 1 t
11,11 X , j t r |t | a t r t t ti sIt t sIati t r a|i 1 a1
i 1 t r Ii Ii ta| |t .
|a t ] t 1 t 1 t It rm i r ar | a t |a st ri t a}a sIa1 a
r t j t st t a r tt m j t rIam i t r It t sIati t r a|, t |
j rt ] ram a X I k | | M k t r Irt ] a a r tt r }a r It
1 t It sIs t sIa 1 i sIi t t s t sIa 1 i sIi t t s j a ra
1 t It rm i r ar |a ta|i 1 a1 1 t a}a sIt t sIati t r a|,
t r t | ta a1 rt 1 st j rt st r Iar |t s rt sa |Ia1 t s
1 t |t s It sIs 1 t ta|i 1 a1 1 t a}a sIt j ara |a st ri t
1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a tt r t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t ,
t sIas t sIa1 i sIi tas tari ar t r Irt 1 1, j t rt st
att j Iar st |t ta|t rt s m t r t rt s a .
Cuadro N 9
Cuadro N 8
Test for the presence of seasonality assuming stability
| a art s |rt t 1 t m | a art | |-Va|a t
| t I t t r m t r I| s \I,t \,1 1,11I ,1I
| t si 1 a a| 1.II1,t It 1\,t
t Ia| 1.III,I I j -ta|a t 1,1111
F3. Monitoring and Quality Assessment Statistics*
Con efecto calendario
M = 1, 1
M I = 1,1I
M 1 = 1,1I1
M \= 1,1tt
M ! = 1,I1\
M t = 1,!
M I = 1, I\
M = 1,IIt
M 1 = 1, 1I
M 1 = 1,I\\
M = 1,I\1
| r t | t a a 1 rt 1 , st j a t 1 t r t | st rt a r |t s
t sI a 1 i sI i t t s 1 t | a t a | i 1 a 1 1 t | a } a sI t
t sI a t i t r a | j a ra | a st ri t | | V |
1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a tt r t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t , 1 t
|t s rt sa |Ia 1 t s st t | st rt a | a t It 1 t s |t s
t sIa1 i sIi tt s M
a M

Ia t rt r att j Ia| |t s, t s
1 t t i r, m t r t rt s a . | t r t } t m j | t , t |
t sIa1 i sIi tt M

m i 1 t |a tt r Iri | a ti t r rt |aIi ta
1 t |a tt m j t r t r It i rrt ] a |ar t r a r j t ri t 1 t
1 t Irt s m t st s t | t sIa1 i sIi tt M
I
m i 1 t |a
tt r Iri | a ti t r 1 t |a tt m j t r t r It i rrt ] a |ar a
|a tari ar ta 1 t |as st ri t | ra Ia j rt ti am t r It
Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010
1 t st sI a t i t r a | i t a 1 a , si t sI t s r t st r
a t t j I a | | t s, st ri a 1 i I i t i | st j a ra r | a
tt m j t r t r It i rrt ] a |ar 1 t |a tt m j t r t r It
t sI a t i t r a | , j t r t I rt | a 1 t t a a r 1 t t |
t sIa1 i sIi tt M
1
Ia||a |a tt m j t r t r It i rrt ] a |ar
t s ] rar 1 t tt m j ara1 t tt r |a tt m j t r t r It
It r 1 t r t i a -t i t |t , j t r |t Ia r It t s 1 i Ii t i |
st j arar |a tt m j t r t r It It r 1 t r ti a-ti t|t , t It.
| t r t Irt |a1 t Q
, t | t sIa1 i sIi tt ] |t | a| | a t
t s a r j rt m t 1 i t j t r 1 t ra 1 t 1 t |a s t r t t
t sIa1 i sIi tas M

t | t sIa1 i sIi tt ] |t | a| Q
I
si r
t | t sIa1 i sIi tt M
I
, Ia t rt r att j Ia| |t s, j t r |t
| a t st j a t 1 t 1 t t i r | a t | a
1 t st Iati t r a|i tati t r tt r t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t
1 t | i r 1 i t t 1 t j rt 1 a t t i t r i r 1 a sIri a | Ia t
tt rrt tIa.
Serie original v/s serie desestacionalizada
k t t r I i r a a t i t r , st j rt st r I a a r a
tt m j arati t r t r Irt |a st ri t t ri ] i r a| |a st ri t
1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a 1 t | | | V | t r Irt m at 1 t
I11I a| ri | 1 t I111.
|r t | ta a1 rt 1, a| t | st rtar |as tari ati t r t s
m t r sa a|t s 1 t |a st ri t t ri ] i r a| tt rsa s |a st ri t
1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a, st j a t 1 t 1 t ti r | a t |a
tt |aIi |i 1 a1 t r |a tari ati t r m t r sa a| 1 t |a st ri t
t ri ] i r a | t s m a t r a |a t t |a Ii |i 1 a 1 t r |a
tari ati t r 1 t |a st ri t 1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a, t sIt
1 t | i 1 t a | a t a| |i m j i ar |a st ri t 1 t a| a t ||t s
It r t m t r t s 1 t r aIa ra|t ta r t t tt r t m i ta, st
|t ] ra sa ati tar |a st ri t j t rm i Ii t r 1 t t | st rtar
|t s It r t m t r t s t tt r t m i tt s | a t ] t r t rar |t s
tam | i t s t r |a m i sm a.
Cuadro N 10
Variacin Variacin
1 ri ] i r a| M IM k ta m . | t st rI. M IM k ta m .
M a-1I 1 , -1,t 1,1 \,I I1,! -1,1 1, \,1
!a r -1I I,I -I,\ t,1 \,t 11,\ 1,I 1,1 \,1
!a |-1I I,1 -1,! 1,1 \,! 11,t 1, !,t \,I
k ] t -1I II, -1,I \,I \,! I1,\ -1,1 \,t \,I
t j -1I , -I,t ,I \, I,I - ,1 1,! \,I
1 tI-1I 1!,1 \,t \, \,I I1,1 ,1 1,1 \,
K t t-1I 1I,! -I, \,1 \,I 1I, ,I !,I \,I
| i t-1I 1I,t 1, 1,\ \, 1 ,! -1,\ 1,I \,
|r t -1 11, 1,\ \,\ \,\ 1I,! 1,I \,\ \,\
|t | -1 II,\ -\,1 !,I !,1 1I,! 1,1 1, 1,I
M ar-1 11,I 1,I - ,1 I,1 1\, ,I 1,! 1,I
k | r-1 1,! -1,1 \,\ 1,1 11, -I,! 1,t I,1
M a-1 I,I -I, -I,\ I, 11,! -1,I 1, I,!
!a r -1 II,! -1,1 -1,1 ,t 11,t 1,1 1, I,
!a |-1 1 ,1 1,! 1,1 , 1 ,I 1,! 1,! ,1
k ] t -1 I1, -t, -1, ,I I,1 -I,I -1,1 ,!
t j -1 II,1 - ,I 1,t ,! I1,I 1,I 1, ,\
1 tI-1 1\,I 1,I -1, ,I I1,I 1, -1,! ,I
K t t-1 I!,1 -t,1 -!,I 1,t I!, -I,t -\, 1,I
| i t-1 II,I I,I -1,I 1,I I!,I -1,! -\, 1,I
|r t -11 I , -!,I -1,1 -1,1 II,1 - , -I,I -I,I
|t | -11 I, -t,1 - ,! - 1,I I1,1 - ,t -,I -,1
M ar-11 I1, !, -I, -1, I1,1 -1,! - 1,1 -,
k | r-11 I1, -!,I - , -1,t 1, -1,1 -,1 -,
i t | st rtam t s j t r t }t m j |t t | m t s 1 t m artt
1 t I111, |a tari ati t r m t r sa a| 1 t | i r 1 i tt 1 t
j rt 1 a tti t r rt ] i sIrt a r i r trt m t r It m t r sa a|
1 t ! , X , t sI a a | I a t a ri a t i t r st 1 t | t
j ri r t i j a |m t r It a | t It t It t sIa t i t r a | | a t
j rt st r Ia |a st ri t t r 1 i t| t m t s, 1 t | i 1 t a|
Iras|a1 t 1 t |t s j rt tt st s j rt 1 a tIi tt s 1 t |t s
m t st s 1 t t r t rt It | rt rt a m a rt t ,
t t a si t r a 1 t s j t r |a m t r t r 1 t Ia t i t r 1 t
j t rst r a| a taa sa 1 t |as tatati t r t s | a t st
It m ar |t s Ira| a}a1 t rt s t r 1 i t| t s m t st s.
k 1 t m a s t t i sIt a r t It t It t a |t r 1 a ri t 1 t
|t r ] i Ia 1 1 t | m t s, a | a t m artt Ii t r t m as
1 i a s | a t t | m t s 1 t It | rt rt | t | a t
i r trt m t r Ia |a j rt 1 a tti t r tt m j ara1 a t r Irt
It | rt rt m artt . |t ar It ri t r r t st r asj t tIt s
r t I a m t r I t t t t r t m i t t s 1 t |
t t m j t rI a m i t r I t 1 t | a j rt 1 a t t i t r
i r 1 a sIri a|, j t r |t | a t t s r t tt sari t |i m j i ar |a
st ri t 1 t 1 i t | t s Ia t It rt s t sIa t i t r a |t s. k |
t | st rtar |a st ri t 1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a j ara
i ] a a| m t s, |a tari ati t r m t r sa a| a|tar tt a -
1 , ! X , |t | a t rt I|t }t | a t |a a t Ii t i 1 a 1 1 t |
st tIt r rt a|m t r It Ia tt a r 1 t trt ti m i t r It ,
t sIa tari ati t r Ia t m a i r It ri t r a |a rt ] i sIra1 a
t r |a st ri t t ri ] i r a|, j t r |t | a t 1 t |t s !, X
1 t tari ati t r m t r sa a|, tt rta 1 t ! j a r It s
j t rt t r I a a | t s st r t t j | i t a 1 t s j t r | a
tt m j t r t r It t sIati t r a|.
| t r t Irt |a 1 t , st j a t 1 t t | st rt a r t r t |
ta a1 rt 1 | a t |a st ri t 1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a t s
a r m t } t r i r 1 i t a 1 t r j a ra t | a r a | i si s 1 t
t t a r Ia ra , j t rm i Ii t r 1 t 1 t It rm i r a r 1 t
m a r t ra m a s t j t rIa r a |a j t si t i t r 1 t |a
t t t r t m i a | t s j t si | | t s | a i t | rt s 1 t
It r 1 t r ti a. |r 1 i t| t ta a1 rt , st rt ] i sIra j ara
t | m t s 1 t a | ri | 1 t I 1 1 a r a t a ri a t i t r
m t r sa a | r t ] a I i t a t r | a st ri t
1 t st sIati t r a|i ta1 a, 1 ar 1 t st 1 a|t s 1 t | i r i ti t
1 t a r j t ri t 1 t rt tt si tt j ara t | i r 1 i ta1 t r
ast ti a1 t a |a tri si s sa | j ri m t . |r |a st ri t
t ri ] i r a | , | t a r I t ri t r st t | st rt a m a s
t|aram t r It a j arIi r 1 t | m t s 1 t m at 1 t I11,
t r sa s tari ati t r t s i r It rar a a|t s.
Figura N 7
|t t tj a t sIt t r t | j arraIt ar It ri t r, st j a t 1 t
t | st rt a r m a s t |a ra m t r It a | t | st rt a r t |
] raIi tt 1 t tari ati t r t s 1 t |a tt m j t r t r It 1 t
I t r 1 t r t i a -t i t | t 1 t | a i r 1 a sI ri a
m ar a IatIa rt ra, Ii ] a ra I. |r 1 i t| t ] raIi tt , st
j a t 1 t t t r t | a i r | a t | a s t a ri a t i t r t s
m t r sa a|t s ar a a|i ta1 as m t t r Irt ] ar m t }t r
i r It rm a t i t r rt sj t t I t a | j a r t ra m a
tt a r Ia ra|, i 1 t r Ii Ii tar 1 t t | | a i t | rt t r |a
I t r 1 t r t i a t r It | rt rt 1 t I 1 1 , j t r t |
tt r Irari t a| tt r |as tari ati t r t s i r It rar a a|t s
rt ti t r t r }a r i t 1 t I11 t r Irt ] a st 1 a|t s 1 t
tam | i t s It r 1 t r ti a|t s.
Referencias
| a 1 i ra | . , a t r t t t i | | t | . ,
| t st sIati t r a|i tar tt r t | m t It 1 t X ,
| r i tt rsi It |i | rt 1 t | ra tt ||t s, I111-I11 .
I | t rIt t !a ar M ., | t st sIati t r a|i tati t r -
X I k | | M k - tt r t It tIt ta|t r 1 ari t
| r 1 i t t 1 t a j t rm t rt a 1 t s, | r sIi Ia It
K a t i t r a | 1 t | sI a 1 i sI i t a s 1 t | | i | t ,
| i ti t m | rt I11.
1 | ra tt 1 . , |a r a | , | t rrt a V. , | a i t |. ,
| t st sI a t i t r a | i t a t i t r 1 t t ri t s
|tt r t m i tas. || | rt tt 1 i m i t r It | Ii |i ta1 t
j t r t | | ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t , | ar tt
| t r Ira| 1 t | | i |t , k ] t sIt I11I.
\ V i | | a rt a | | ra r t i st t | . , | | t m t r I t s
t t ri tt s 1 t | k }a sIt |sIati t r a| 1 t t ri t s
| t t r t m i t a s a Ii |i t a r 1 t X I k | | M k
| k M 1 |k , | ||k |, | i ti t m | rt I11!.
! | . . | t r sa s | a rt a a , X I k | | M k
| t It rt r tt M ar a a|, !a |i t I11I.
t Yt a r ] k ||a r , | sIi m a Ii r ] ra 1 i r ] | a
Vari aIi t r i r M t r I| | |tt r t m i t i m t
t ri t s, | a rt aa t I I| t | t r sa s, k | ri | 1t!.
I !t rra I !. , | a t | . , | a Ia | a r M . , k } a sIt
|sIati t r a| 1 t |as t ri t s |tt r t m i tas 1 t
k r] t r Ii r a , | r i tt rsi 1 a 1 K a t i t r a | 1 t
a ta m ar .
| t rIa] a t s |., | at| t tt !., k 1 t j ti t r 1 t |
| rt ] ra m a 1 t k } a sIt | sIa t i t r a | X I
k | | M k , | r sI i I a I t K a t i t r a | 1 t
| sIa 1 i sIi t a s | t r st s 1 t k r] t r Ii r a ,
I11\.
1 | | att s k |tart 1 ., | t st sIati t ar |i tati t r
1 t |a | rt 1 a tti t r | r 1 a sIri a| tt r |a
M t It 1 t |t ] i a X I k | | M k , | r i tt rsi 1 a1
|tIt rr a1 t 1 t | t |t m | i a.
1 | a t rrt rt V i t I t r M ,
| t st sIa t i t r a | i t a t i t r 1 t t ri t s 1 t
t ri t s 1 t i t m j t | t t r t m i t a s, | r a
| r Irt 1 a tti t r a |a M t It 1 t |t ] i a, | ar tt
1 t M t ti tt , k ] t sIt 111.
| i | a I k r a , 1 t a m j t k r 1 rt a , k }a sIt
t sIati t r a| 1 t st ri t s t tt r t m i tas tt r
ram t I t aIs | t r sa s X I-k ri m a, | ar tt
| t r Ira| 1 t | t sIa | i ta, M artt I11!.
I | a m t r t s |. , M i ra r 1 a | . , 1 r1 t 1 t t | ,
Va s| a t t !. , | t st sIa t i t r a |i t a t i t r 1 t
t ri t s |tt r t m i tas, | r sIi Ia It K ati t r a|
1 t |sIa1 i sIi ta t | r It rm aIi ta, | t ra .
1 | t rI a ] a t s |. , | a t | t t t ! . , k } a sI t
| sIa t i t r a | 1 t |a s t ri t s 1 t 1 It rIa
| t m ar 1 a ] |t | a|t s, | r sIi Ia It K ati t r a|
1 t |sIa1 i sIi tas | t r st s 1 t k r] t r Ii r a,
I11\.
\ | arti a M ., |i r ata K ., 1 |at Ia 1 ., K a t tt s
M t I t 1 t s 1 t t t rrt t t i t r
| t st sIa t i t r a |i t a t i t r t r | sIa 1 i sIi t a s
| t a r I a ra | t s, | r sI i I a I t V a st t 1 t
|sIa1 i sIi tas.
! |sj asa k r It r i , M arIi r t t !., t r 1 t r ti a
t i t | t s t r | a t t t r t m i a t sj a 1 t | a ,
| r i tt rsi 1 a1 | ar|t s | | | .
t wi ||i am | ., | t r a|1 |., M t 1 t |i r ] i m t -
Vari r ] ra1 i r ] -| a |IIt tIs i r M t r I| |
i m t t ri t s, | t r sa s | a rt a a a r 1
1 t ar1 | r i tt rsi I.
I |i r 1 |t | ati 1 , M t 1 t |i r ] It t| ra1 i r ]
| a |IIt tIs | r 1 t r ||t | a-t I-wt t |
| t r sIrai r Is, | t r sa s | a rt aa , I11t.
t ast r a| k 1 }a sIm t r I, |a rt j ar | t r Ira|
| ar | , I111.
1 t It | a i m a r 1 t , k }a sIt | sIa t i t r a | t
| r I t ] ra t i t r t r V a ri a | | t s
M atrt t tt r t m i tas, | ar tt | t r Ira| 1 t
| | i |t , }a r i t I111.
I1 | i r 1 | t | a t i 1 , X- I -k | | M k a r 1 i Is
k j j |i taIi t r It t m t | Ia|i ar | r 1 i taIt r
t ri t s, | t r sa s | a rt aa .
I | t t r wi ||i am 1 ., k r a|si s |tt r t m t Iri tt ,
1ra | rt r Ii tt 1 a||.
II 1 am i |It r !., i m t t ri t s k r a|si s, 1ra
| rt r Ii tt 1 a||.

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Vt |a m t r \, K a m t rt -I, | i ti t m | rt I1 1

4 p - p* En este caso representan lo implcito

1t Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010

1 Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010

-1,I!t (It | rt rt a1 t r t | i si t sIt

I Revista Chilena de Economa y Sociedad, Diciembre 2010

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