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HIDROLOGA
INDICE
DISTRIBUCIN GUMBEL ............................................................................................. 2
I.
a)
II.
V.
CONCLUSIONES ..................................................................................................... 19
VII.
BIBLIOGRAFA ......................................................................................................... 20
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
I.
HIDROLOGA
DISTRIBUCIN GUMBEL
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
Si:
Puede utilizarse:
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
II.
HIDROLOGA
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
( )
Siendo:
( ) = Funcin densidad normal de la variable (x).
= variable independiente.
= media aritmtica de x.
= Desviacin estndar de x.
= funcin exponencial.
FUNCION DENSIDAD DE LA DISTRIBUCION NORMAL ESTANDAR
Si
( )
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
III.
SI
( )
Donde:
Media
= variancia
Si
( )
( ),
lo remplazamos como ( )
( )
Si
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
( )
Donde:
Variancia:
Media:
Hallo:
| ( )
( )|
Hallo:
terico
Tener:
, nivel de significancia.
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Ejercicio:
Se tiene un registro de caudales de 29 aos para la estacin A. En este
rio se desea construir una presa de almacenamiento, calcular el caudal de
diseo para el vertedor de demasas, con un periodo de retorno de 50 aos.
Aplicar la distribucin Gumbel.
Caudal
(Q)
m3/s
1660
618
876
563
824
Caudal (Q)
m3/s
557
917
683
740
520
Caudal
(Q)
m3/s)
824
818
3800
934
1120
Caudal
(Q)
m3/s
360
1230
1030
1410
779
Caudal (Q)
m3/s
610
367
522
418
2280
Caudal
(Q)
m3/s)
921
1150
658
581
.
Solucin
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
Orden
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Caudal (Q)
m3/s
360
367
418
520
522
557
563
581
610
618
658
683
740
779
818
824
824
876
917
921
934
1030
1120
1150
1230
1410
1660
2280
3800
HIDROLOGA
P(x)
F(y)
0.0333
0.0667
0.1000
0.1333
0.1667
0.2000
0.2333
0.2667
0.3000
0.3333
0.3667
0.4000
0.4333
0.4667
0.5000
0.5333
0.5667
0.6000
0.6333
0.6667
0.7000
0.7333
0.7667
0.8000
0.8333
0.8667
0.9000
0.9333
0.9667
-0.5455
-0.5323
-0.4365
-0.2449
-0.2411
-0.1754
-0.1641
-0.1303
-0.0758
-0.0608
0.0144
0.0613
0.1684
0.2417
0.3149
0.3262
0.3262
0.4239
0.5009
0.5084
0.5328
0.7132
0.8823
0.9386
1.0889
1.4270
1.8967
3.0614
5.9168
0.178100
0.182161
0.212824
0.278738
0.280077
0.303703
0.307787
0.320085
0.340014
0.345530
0.373159
0.390423
0.429549
0.455972
0.481984
0.485943
0.485943
0.519701
0.545538
0.548018
0.556028
0.612576
0.661101
0.676265
0.714203
0.786614
0.860652
0.954257
0.997310
| ( )
( )|
0.1448
0.1155
0.1128
0.1454
0.1134
0.1037
0.0745
0.0534
0.0400
0.0122
0.0065
0.0096
0.0038
0.0107
0.0180
0.0474
0.0807
0.0803
0.0878
0.1186
0.1440
0.1208
0.1056
0.1237
0.1191
0.0801
0.0393
0.0209
0.0306
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
; Pero x = Q
DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBEL
TR - Aos
F(z)
QAUDAL
MEDIO
5
10
20
25
50
100
0.80000
0.90000
0.95000
0.96000
0.98000
0.99000
1.49994
2.25037
2.97020
3.19853
3.90194
4.60015
1448.81
1848.27
2231.45
2353.00
2727.43
3099.10
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
DISTRIBUCIN
GUMBEL
IV.
5
1448.81
HIDROLOGA
TR - Aos
20
25
2231.45
2353.00
10
1848.27
50
2727.43
100
3099.10
Orden
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Precipitacin
Max.
ordenada
20.70
25.40
26.40
27.10
28.60
30.00
32.00
33.10
33.90
33.90
34.60
35.10
35.30
41.10
41.10
43.70
47.40
51.70
51.80
74.10
P(x)
F(y)
0.04762
0.09524
0.14286
0.19048
0.23810
0.28571
0.33333
0.38095
0.42857
0.47619
0.52381
0.57143
0.61905
0.66667
0.71429
0.76190
0.80952
0.85714
0.90476
0.95238
-1.18268
-0.68591
-0.58022
-0.50623
-0.34769
-0.19971
0.01168
0.12794
0.21250
0.21250
0.28649
0.33933
0.36047
0.97351
0.97351
1.24831
1.63939
2.09388
2.10445
4.46145
0.03827
0.13730
0.16756
0.19032
0.24273
0.29492
0.37218
0.41482
0.44550
0.44550
0.47194
0.49054
0.49790
0.68540
0.68540
0.75052
0.82358
0.88408
0.88523
0.98852
| ( )
( )|
0.00935
0.04206
0.02470
0.00015
0.00464
0.00921
0.03884
0.03387
0.01693
0.03069
0.05187
0.08089
0.12114
0.01873
0.02889
0.01138
0.01405
0.02694
0.01954
0.03614
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
Orden
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Precipitacin
Max.
ordenada
20.70
25.40
26.40
27.10
28.60
30.00
32.00
33.10
33.90
33.90
34.60
35.10
35.30
41.10
41.10
43.70
47.40
51.70
51.80
74.10
P(x)
F(z)
0.04762
0.09524
0.14286
0.19048
0.23810
0.28571
0.33333
0.38095
0.42857
0.47619
0.52381
0.57143
0.61905
0.66667
0.71429
0.76190
0.80952
0.85714
0.90476
0.95238
-1.372132
-0.984803
-0.902393
-0.844706
-0.721090
-0.605716
-0.440895
-0.350244
-0.284316
-0.284316
-0.226628
-0.185423
-0.168941
0.309039
0.309039
0.523306
0.828224
1.182588
1.190829
3.028580
0.012825
0.020244
0.021881
0.023012
0.025350
0.027367
0.029832
0.030921
0.031575
0.031575
0.032043
0.032317
0.032411
0.031344
0.031344
0.028670
0.023331
0.016338
0.016179
0.000335
| ( )
( )|
0.034794
0.074994
0.120976
0.167464
0.212745
0.258348
0.303501
0.350031
0.396997
0.444616
0.491766
0.539112
0.586636
0.635323
0.682942
0.733235
0.786193
0.840805
0.888583
0.952046
10
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
Orden
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Precipitacin
Max.
ordenada
20.70
25.40
26.40
27.10
28.60
30.00
32.00
33.10
33.90
33.90
34.60
35.10
35.30
41.10
41.10
43.70
47.40
51.70
51.80
74.10
P(x)
F(y)
0.04762
0.09524
0.14286
0.19048
0.23810
0.28571
0.33333
0.38095
0.42857
0.47619
0.52381
0.57143
0.61905
0.66667
0.71429
0.76190
0.80952
0.85714
0.90476
0.95238
3.03013
3.23475
3.27336
3.29953
3.35341
3.40120
3.46574
3.49953
3.52342
3.52342
3.54385
3.55820
3.56388
3.71601
3.71601
3.77735
3.85862
3.94546
3.94739
4.30542
0.29448
0.71896
0.81197
0.87433
0.99654
1.09241
1.19280
1.22849
1.24577
1.24577
1.25508
1.25851
1.25916
1.13275
1.13275
1.01689
0.83195
0.62426
0.61975
0.08517
| ( )
( )|
0.24686
0.62373
0.66911
0.68385
0.75844
0.80670
0.85947
0.84754
0.81720
0.76958
0.73127
0.68709
0.64012
0.46609
0.41847
0.25498
0.02243
0.23288
0.28501
0.86721
11
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
V.
HIDROLOGA
COMPARACIN DE RESULTADOS
Nivel de significacin
Distribucin Normal
12
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
Elijo
la
distribucin
Gumbel
para
el
anlisis
de
las
TR - Aos
F(z)
5
10
20
25
50
100
0.80000
0.90000
0.95000
0.96000
0.98000
0.99000
0.84164
1.28155
1.64485
1.75070
2.05375
2.32630
1.49994
2.25037
2.97020
3.19853
3.90194
4.60015
PRECIPITACIN - CUEVA
BLANCA
LOG.
NORMAL GUMBEL
NORMAL
47.563
50.090
46.375
52.901
59.196
53.310
57.309
67.931
59.812
58.594
70.702
61.851
62.271
79.237
68.083
65.578
87.710
74.222
TR - Aos
DISTRIBUCIN
NORMAL
GUMBEL
LOG NORMAL
10
20
25
50
100
47.563
50.090
46.375
52.901
59.196
53.310
57.309
67.931
59.812
58.594
70.702
61.851
62.271
79.237
68.083
65.578
87.710
74.222
13
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
)(
Donde:
P = Precipitacin
T = tiempo de retorno
t = Periodo de duracin
Si
)(
Donde
CF = Curva De Frecuencia
CD = Curva de Duracin
Dt
min
5
15
30
45
60
120
240
360
480
600
720
840
1080
1440
TR, Aos
1
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
18
24
5
15.61716
28.57994
38.79233
45.63993
50.93698
65.37947
82.55460
94.07084
102.97937
110.34436
116.67457
122.25645
131.83079
143.55509
10
18.26668
33.42867
45.37364
53.38297
59.57869
76.47143
96.56039
110.03042
120.45034
129.06483
136.46899
142.99787
154.19654
167.90992
20
20.91621
38.27740
51.95495
61.12601
68.22040
87.56338
110.56619
125.99001
137.92130
147.78530
156.26341
163.73928
176.56229
192.26476
25
21.76917
39.83834
54.07366
63.61871
71.00241
91.13419
115.07505
131.12785
143.54569
153.81194
162.63579
170.41653
183.76245
200.10526
50
24.41870
44.68707
60.65498
71.36175
79.64412
102.22615
129.08085
147.08743
161.01666
172.53241
182.43021
191.15794
206.12820
224.46010
100
27.06823
49.53580
67.23629
79.10479
88.28583
113.31810
143.08665
163.04702
178.48762
191.25288
202.22463
211.89936
228.49395
248.81493
14
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
P (mm)
200
150
5 AOS
10 AOS
20 AOS
100
25 AOS
50 AOS
100 AOS
50
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Dt (min)
15
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
Dt
min
5
15
30
45
60
120
240
360
480
600
720
840
1080
1440
I (mm/h)
1
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
18
24
5
187.40587
114.31977
77.58466
60.85324
50.93698
32.68974
20.63865
15.67847
12.87242
11.03444
9.72288
8.73260
7.32393
5.98146
10
219.20021
133.71469
90.74729
71.17729
59.57869
38.23571
24.14010
18.33840
15.05629
12.90648
11.37242
10.21413
8.56647
6.99625
20
250.99455
153.10960
103.90991
81.50135
68.22040
43.78169
27.64155
20.99833
17.24016
14.77853
13.02195
11.69566
9.80902
8.01103
25
261.23004
159.35337
108.14733
84.82495
71.00241
45.56710
28.76876
21.85464
17.94321
15.38119
13.55298
12.17261
10.20903
8.33772
50
293.02438
178.74829
121.30995
95.14900
79.64412
51.11307
32.27021
24.51457
20.12708
17.25324
15.20252
13.65414
11.45157
9.35250
100
324.81872
198.14321
134.47258
105.47306
88.28583
56.65905
35.77166
27.17450
22.31095
19.12529
16.85205
15.13567
12.69411
10.36729
16
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
I (mm/hr)
250
200
TR = 5 AOS
TR = 10 AOS
150
TR = 20 AOS
TR = 25 AOS
TR = 50 AOS
100
TR = 10 AOS
50
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dt (min)
17
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
HIDROLOGA
TR, AOS
90
Dist. Normal
85
Dist. gumbel
Dist. Log - Nomal 2 P.
PRECIPITACION (mm)
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
1
10
100
PROBABILIDAD (%)
ESCUELA PROFESIONAL DE INGENIERA CIVIL
18
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
VI.
HIDROLOGA
CONCLUSIONES
Con el anlisis del estadstico de Smirnov - Kolmogorov por teora y el
mximo valor para cada anlisis de las distribuciones (Normal, Gumbel o
Log - Normal 2 Parmetros), da como resultado
, por
19
ESTADSTICA HIDROLGICA
VII.
HIDROLOGA
BIBLIOGRAFA
Apuntes de clase dado por el docente.
Hidrologa, Mximo Villn Bjar, Tercera Edicin: Editorial Villn, Abril
del 20111, Lima Per. (Pgina 69-75).
Material de apoyo didctico para la enseanza y aprendizaje de la
asignatura de Hidrologa CIV- 233, Agustn Cahuana Andia, setiembre
2009; COCHABAMBA BOLIVIA. (Pagina 74 86).
20