(Ch.

14) Decline of DtenteEurocommunism

Helsinki Accords dont end East/West tension in Europe New Communist forces rising in Italy and France
Soviets not overjoyed because of radical, independent communists were harder to deal with than capitalists

Eurocommunism
1974- Portugal
Fascist dictator Marcelo Caetano ousted by leftist military officer Vascos dos Santos Goncalves
Established Communism and close ties with USSR

Ford and Kissinger warned Soviets to stay out of Portuguese affairs

1975- Portugal
Goncalves loses popularity and Soviets do nothing but complain about Western interference Goncalves is deposed and Communist uprising in November is crushed as USSR stands idle

Angola
USSR stepped up aid to Marxists involved in civil war
Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (PMLA) Soviets helped airlift 160,000 Cuban troops to aid the PLMA South Africa sends troops to aid the government

1976- PMLA gains the upper hand US Congress would not allow troops to be sent in as Vietnam was still fresh in their memories Civil war dragged on until 1990 when Cuban and South Africans pulled troops out as the Cold War was ending

Angola
US leadership deemed Soviet behavior in Angola was different than before
Believed in a major new Soviet Third World offensive under cover of dtente Soviets countered with a continuation of traditional practice of aiding national liberation movements throughout the world providing them with arms and assistance

Setback to Superpower Relations

Ronald Reagan was mounting a serious bid for the Republican nomination in the 1976 election
He had broad support from conservative and anticommunist civilians Accused Ford of letting Soviets be #1

March 1976- Ford and Kissinger stop using dtente and take a tougher stance on Soviets
Basically abandoning dtente with Soviets in exchange for saving face in the US with his constituents

Ford won the Republican nomination, but narrowly lost the presidential election to Democrat Jimmy Carter

Human Rights and the Decline of Dtente

Soviets werent sure what to make of Carter Carter appointed Zbigniew Brzezinski as National Security Advisor
Polish migr who was staunch anticommunist

US-Soviet relations- Early Carter Administration

Damaged by two major issues
1) arms control 2) human rights

Arms ControlCarter Administration

US pushed for reductions far below Vladivostok agreement
Introduced by Secretary of State Cyrus Vance Called for extensive cuts in strategic weapons and MIRVs and modern ICBMs (particularly the Soviet SS-18)

USSR upset that years had gone towards achieving SALT II and now Carter was abandoning the agreement for something new Brezhnev rejected the new US proposals and insisted on further talks to achieve SALT II

Human RightsCarter Administration

Human rights had become a particularly sticky issue in the Soviet Union
Boosted by Helsinki Final Act of 1975

Soviet citizens began issuing open letters to publicly accuse the USSR of violating the accords Brezhnev regime exiled many of these and clamped down on those who remained Carter thought he could launch an attack in this area without damaging US-Soviet relations
Bad assumption as it was a sore spot for Soviet leadership

Human RightsCarter Administration

Carter issued public statements critical of Soviet and Eastern European authorities Increased stress was placed on human rights on radio broadcasts beamed to the Communist Bloc by the BBC Letters of support and encouragement were sent to leading Soviet dissenters Carter administration held a reception for Vladimir Bukovsky (recently exiled dissident)

Human RightsCarter Administration

Soviets responded by evicting and harassing western reporters and arresting numerous dissenters and warned the US of further intervention in Soviet domestic affairs Carter insisted that criticism was not only directed towards the USSR, but other nations who were violating human rights
Proved it by cutting off aid to US client states who were violating human rights

Brezhnev didnt get it- believed that Carters attacks were only meant to undermine the USSR

Human RightsCarter Administration

Fall 1977- Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe meetings anew
USSR hoped to reestablish dtente with US US was looking to report on human rights progress by nations which had signed the Helsinki Accords
Wasnt going to sit well with the Soviets

Confrontation and Confusion in East Africa

US ties with Ethiopia and USSR ties with Somalia were strained when the two East African nations started up hostilities over land contentions
Ogaden region was believed to belong to Somalia (so they worked to get it back through force)

Soviets supplied arms and assistance to Somalia for this operation

Believed that Somalia as a client state would give them access to the Indian Ocean

1974- military coup in Ethiopia overthrew Emperor Haile Selassie

New leader was Marxist Mengistu Haile Mariam

1977- US denounced Mariam regime for human rights violations and cut off all aid

Confrontation and Confusion in East Africa

Soviets saw their opportunity to dominate the Red Sea region of East Africa (Somalia and Ethiopia) and the Middle East (Yemen) Somalia broke ties with Soviets (due to not allowing for an attack on neighboring Ethiopia) and invaded Ethiopia for the Ogaden region
Soviets were replaced by US advisors, but Carter would not supply aid to Somali aggressors

USSR supplies Ethiopia with huge amounts of weapons and Cuba sent troops to defend against Somali invasion
Soviets refused to allow Ethiopian counterattack

Led to years of political and economic instability well beyond the end of the Cold War

Peace Between Egypt and Israel

Carter sought Soviet aid to broker peace in the Middle East between Egypt and Israel
Simultaneously with the events in East Africa

October 1977- Superpowers prepare a joint statement calling for renewed peace talks in Geneva November 1977- Anwar Sadat visits Jerusalem (sets in motion peace between Egypt and Israel)
Resulted in enhanced US role and a huge decline in Soviet influence in the Middle East Agreement from the outset was to have US facilitate the agreement (Carter was to act as mediator)

Manachem Begin (newly elected Prime Minister of Israel)

December 1977- flew to Egypt for further discussions

Peace Between Egypt and Israel

September 1978- 12-day meeting at Camp David in the US to create the framework for a treaty to be concluded within 3 months Israeli Congress balked at certain stipulations of the treaty
Grudgingly agreed to Sinai pullout
Israel was willing to trade occupied land for peace with Egypt

Egypt stalled the treaty process until Israel was willing to resume full diplomatic relations concerning its control over Palestinians

Three months came and went with no treaty

Carter flew to Jerusalem and Cairo to help finalize the treaty

March 26, 1979- Egypt-Israeli Treaty

Signed by Sadat and Begin in Washington, D.C.

Carter Administration Splits

Two contradictory paths with the Soviets
1) Secretary of State Vance Cooperation with USSR and worked to preserve dtente Fell back to Vladivostok approach to conclude a SALT II Treaty 2) National Security Advisor Brzezinski Favored confrontation with the Soviets Pushed for an accelerated arms build up Further rapprochement with China

The China Card

May 1978- Carter and Brzezinski played the China Card when the NSA director visited Beijing
Brzezinski met with Chinese leaders and ripped Soviet leadership

January 1, 1979- US and China established official diplomatic ties

US cut off almost all ties with Taiwan Reason for Taiwanese feelings of bitterness towards the US

The China Card

1976- Deng Xiaoping had emerged as Chinas leader
Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai died

January 1979- Deng Xiaoping visited the US

Charmed everyone with his cordiality Returned home to invade Vietnam

{Background to this situation between China and Vietnam}

After US pullout, Vietnam aligned themselves with the USSR as China aligned with Cambodia December 1978- Vietnam invaded Cambodia and removed Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge February 1979- China invades Vietnam to punish Hanoi for their aggression towards Cambodia

The America Card

Deng Xiaoping played the America Card making it look as if the US acquiesced to Chinas intentions
Actually the US tried to stop the Chinese leaders plans while he was visiting the US

US did not publicly condemn Chinese invasion of Vietnam and hypocritically continued to recognize and send arms to the genocidal Khmer Rouge

SALT II
Carter-Brezhnev summit for SALT II was hindered by the events in Southeast Asia
Resulted in much wrangling, meetings, and private correspondences

June 1979- Vienna, Austria (SALT II)

Marked the pinnacle of Brezhnevs career- through relentless arms buildup and tenacious negotiations, the USSR had achieved a recognized position of diplomatic and strategic equality with the US Soviet territorial gains in WWII and it domination of Eastern Europe had been widely recognized and accepted in international accords USSR had become a military giant that was feared world wide and accepted as a member of the family of nations

Arc of Crisis
US saw Soviets using Vienna Summit to gain an advantage in Third World influence and in strategic weapons capability Brzezinski began to believe in an arc of crisis
Afghanistan, through the Persian Gulf, and down into East Africa Looked as if Soviet-backed Communism was on the march through the these Third World regions

Even more alarming to the US was Soviet arms buildup (USSR had surpassed the US in certain weapons by the late 1970s)
Most worrisome was the Soviet SS-18 because it provided the Soviets with first-strike capability and the ability to wipe out US fleet of missiles

Window of Vulnerability
US Committee on the Present Danger
Warned US government of missile gap in favor of the USSR (similar to perceived missile gap crisis of the 1950s) Known as the window of vulnerability

1980s- US bolstered it arms capabilities with new MX ICBMs and D-5 SLBMs

Carter Report CardPost Vienna Summit

People within the Democratic party disliked him His polls were low
Due to shaky economy and high inflation

He offended military hawks by canceling plans for the B-1 Bomber Criticized for his inaction in the face of Soviet Third World gains
He signed a treaty to give up control of Panama Canal abandonment of Taiwan in order to normalize Sino-US relations

Obstacles to US Ratification of SALT II

Soviet combat brigade discovered in Cuba NATO worried about SALT II undermining Western European security
West German Chancellor Schmidt feared Warsaw Pact military preeminence in Europe Particularly feared mobile Soviet SS-20 missiles (IRBMs)

August 1977- US updated NATO missile systems with IRBMs of their own October 1977- Brezhnev gives angry speech concerning NATO missile capabilities and offers to reduce their IRBMs in exchange for NATO not using US missiles

Obstacles to US Ratification of SALT II

December 1977- NATO responds with dual track approach
Resolved to proceed with negotiations to reduce intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) while simultaneously preparing to install the new missiles in 1983
Two reasons for this approach
1) gave Soviets an incentive to bargain in good faith 2) allay the fears of populations in the nations where the new missiles were to be deployed

The Crisis in Iran- Background

November 4, 1979- Iranians storm the US embassy and seize a large number of hostages destined to undermine dtente and destroy Carter administration US supported Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi
Ruled from 1953 to 1979 Oil revenue skyrocketed from $34 million in 1953 to $20 billion in 1978 Result was rapid urbanization and industrialization Country could not keep up as the population was becoming westernized and secularized

The Crisis in Iran- Background

Huge conservative religious uprising headed by Ayatollah Khomeini
Exiled to Iraq since 1963 Uprising caused Iraq to exile Khomeini
Left to Paris and directed the revolution over the radio (BBC)

January 6, 1979- Shah Pahlavi appointed Shahpour Bakhtiar and left the country for cancer treatment February 1, 1979- Khomeini returned to Iran and a few days later revolution broke out
Khomeini gained control of Tehran and installed a theocratic state and continued his hatemongering towards the US

November 4, 1979- Iranian Hostage Crisis for the next 15 months

Crushed US world opinion as they could not free their hostages and revealed Carters weakness

Iranian Hostage Crisis

Blocked US intelligence from key espionage points in Iran towards the USSR
Senate believed that hindered our ability to check in on SALT II agreements and therefore blocked ratification of the treaty in the US Further weakening dtente and leading back to full-on Cold War

Adverse impact upon Iran as their internal government and economic structure collapsed due to frozen assets in the US
Iraq would then invade them in 1980 Soviets tried to fill the void in Iran by sending them arms, but the USSR had its own crisis

Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

January 1980- USSR invades Afghanistan in response to a series of events that had threatened Moscows recently gained hegemony in that country Background April 1978- Communist revolution placed Nur Muhammad Taraki in power Radical socialism was being forced upon devout Muslim Afghans by extremist Hafizullah Amin Soviets were urging Taraki to slow reform and get rid of Amin Amin ended up in power and exacerbated revolutionary chaos Soviets were mounting an attack
Carter warned them of interventionbut the Soviets did not listen

Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

December 1979- Soviet troops cross the Afghan border
Paratroopers stormed the government headquarters and carried out a bloody coup Amin was killed and moderate Karmal was placed in charge

Turned out to be the most calamitous miscalculation of the Brezhnev regime

Karmal was no more popular than Amin
Various rebel forces developed

Soviet heavy-handedness reputation weakened their influence throughout the Third World Military power was reduced by its inability to bring a conclusion to the war
Lasted throughout the 1980s

Economically sapped the Soviet economy as it was being drained by war

Would eventually lead to their own demise