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Introduction
Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earths temperature increases? What can/should be done about these issues? Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them?
Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago
Earths Temperature
Solar
Sun
Earths Temperature
Sun
Solar Energy
Radiative Cooling
Earths Temperature
Sun
Solar
Radiative Cooling
Energy
Earths Temperature
Sun
Solar Energy
Radiative Cooling
Sun
Greenhouse Effect
Sun
97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric acid clouds Temperature: 860F
Venus
Carbon Dioxide
170 600000
0 1955
1965
1995
2005
Kyoto Protocol
Adopted in 1997 Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012 Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming
Past Temperatures
0.8 Mean Temperature (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1880
Flat
Flat
1900
1920
1940 Year
1960
1980
2000
Annual Temperatures
25
Summer Temperatures
17
Winter Temperatures
21
24
16
20
23
15
Temperature (C)
19
22
14
18
21
13
17
20
12
16
19
11
15 18 10 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Year
Year
-4.1
-4
-2
-1
-.5
-.2
.2
.5
4.1
Apehelion
Perihelion
Temperature
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age (kya)
-55 20
90
400
300
200
100
1600 Year
1800
2000
1000
1200
1400 Year
1600
1800
2000
Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005 Mann et al. 2008
400
800
1200 Year
1600
2000
Atmospheric Temperatures
0.8 Temperature Cgange (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Troposphere
Stratosphere
-1.0 1980
1990 Year
2000
1920
1960 Year
2000
1920
1960 Year
2000
-4.1
-4
-2
-1
-.5
-.2
.2
.5
4.1
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
30 29 28 27 26
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
-100 -120
25
Time (KYBP)
20
31
15 SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)
Increase in Hurricanes?
Data Unreliable Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed 10However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones) 5Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more Scaled August-October energy) Temperature Sea-Surface Difficult to know if this trend will Storm Adjusted Atlantic Power Dissipation Index 0continue
Wildlife Effects
Polar Bears
Require pack ice to live Might eventually go extinct in the wild
Sea turtles
Breed on the same islands as their birth Could go extinct on some islands as beaches are flooded
Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world
Effect on Humans
Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat Decreased thermohaline circulation
Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
-50
-20
-10
-5
10
20
50
Drought in Africa
Lake Faguibine Lake Chad
450
750
3 a
3 b
1365.2 -0.2 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
-0.5
-1.0 -1.5
-2.0 1750
Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.
-4.1
-4
-2
-1
-.5
-.2
.2
.5
4.1
1920
1960 Year
2000
1920
1960 Year
2000
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
1.0 T (C)
Moderate reduction in carbon emissions
0.5
0 -0.4
1960
1970
1980
2000
2010
2019
Temperature Extrapolation
2.5 2.0 1.5
T (C)
1.0 0.5 0
-0.4 1960
1980
2000
2060
2080
2100
Conclusions
Global warming is happening Most warming is probably the result of human activities There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming The costs to mitigate global warming will be high better spent elsewhere?