Environmental Scanning what it is and how to do it

Maree Conway 2009

Overview
Framework
Current Planning Approaches Strategic Thinking from a Futures Perspective

Environmental Scanning Challenges You Might Face

Strategy = making decisions in an uncertain context

Making strategic decisions in an uncertain context?

Focus

Be aware of worldviews
Involve many

Scan, analyse, interpret

Think and imagine Ensure relevance and plausibility Test, question, challenge Decide, implement and monitor

A holistic approach
Interior Exterior

Staff and stakeholder views

Intentional I

Observed Behaviour
Behavioural It Social Its Individual

Cultural We

Collective

Organisational Culture

The collective external world

Ken Wilber

The Broad Process

Scan

Internal External

Interpret

Scenarios Options

Decide

Strategic directions Plan and Implement

Scanning helps to understand the context of your preferred future where you want to go.

Current Planning Approaches

 Develop a single default scenario a linear extrapolation of today.

Single outcome

 Often lack the flexibility to deal with unexpected changes in the external environment.

 Usually do not include any processes for systematically exploring possible futures for your organisation.

 Tend to rely heavily on quantitative data, suggesting a single outcome, and dismiss validity of qualitative data.

 Miss potential innovation and strategic options because they dont challenge organisational assumptions and ideologies.

And, usually dont include any systematic processes for listening to the views of staff, before a plan is written.

 While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of todays planning systems and tools is increasingly marginal (Fuller, 2003).

Future

 It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infused with quantitative data misses the essence of the concept of strategy and what is involved in thinking strategically (Sidorowicz, 2000).
Data

 A major assumption of the strategic planning literature is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessarily go together. [That is] Strategy formation is a planning process, designed or supported by planners, to plan in order to produce plans (Mintzberg, 1994).
Clarity

Strategic Thinking from a Futures Perspective

Strategic Thinking Generating Options What might happen?

Options

Strategic Decision Making Making choices What will we do?

Decisions

Strategic Planning Taking Action How will we do it?

Actions

Futures Approaches and Methods

Strategic Thinking Generating Options What might happen?

Options

Strategic Decision Making Making choices What will we do?

Decisions

Strategic Planning Taking Action How will we do it?

Actions

Conventional Business Thinking Immediate term Own business focus Attention to detail Techno-economic trends focus Problem approach Less attention to connections Continuity assumption Bottom line focus Undiscussables

Futures Thinking Depth of vision Cross-disciplinary Broad vision Trends and emerging issues Systems approach Interactions and cross-impact Wild cards and discontinuities Strategic focus Speak the unspeakable

Short term focus A single future

Mainstream thinking Past and present dominate decision making

Long term orientation Alternative futures

Mind changers Future dominates decision making

 Strategic thinking is identifying, thinking about and understanding possible and plausible future operating environments for your organisation

so you can use that knowledge to expand your thinking about your potential options,

to position your organisation effectively in the external environment,

 in order to make better informed decisions about action to take today.

We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

We start here
Long term Uncertain Divergent

Incomplete
Beyond linear

Disrupting alignment

We end up here.
Short term Logical Convergent Pragmatic

Deductive
Creating Alignment

Environmental Scanning

ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment to better understand the nature of trends and drivers of change and their likely future impact on your organisation.

Where environmental scanning fits

Future View building a longterm foresight view about the future of the country and the planet

Long-term
Social Intelligence understanding how a country uses its intelligence (knowledge industry and information networks) to meet its developmental challenges

Environmental Scanning developing a broad understanding of the external environment

TIME HORIZON

Business Intelligence understanding the present and future environments with a focus on future competitive environments Competitive Intelligence understanding how our competitors interact with the business and market environment in which they operate Competitor Intelligence understanding the nature of our competitors and their likely responses to change

Short-term

Narrow

SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING

Broad

Adapted from Choo, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization, 1998

Types of Futures
Wildcard Scenario

Possible

Plausible Probable Preferable

Today

Time Futures Cone developed by Clem Bezold

Where to Focus ES

Plausible (Deep Drivers) Probable

(Trends)

Today

Time

Why do it this way?

How robust do we want our planning inputs to be? Bigger how wide are we looking?
Deeper are seriously are we questioning? Longer how far ahead are we looking?

 Big do we understand how we connect and interact with other organisations and the external environment?

 Deep how deeply are we questioning our ways of operating? Do we operate from our interpretation of the past, or our anticipation of the future? Are our assumptions today valid into the future?

 Long how far into the future are we looking? Do we understand the shape of alternative futures for our organisation?

Trends

Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking

Emerging Issues

The weird and unimaginable

Why do it this way?

Beyond the short-term Beyond busy We want to be proactive But how can you be proactive if you have little idea about whats coming?

 Unless you scan, you WILL always be reacting/in crisis management/putting out bushfires.

Aim of ES
The aim of scanning work is to provide robust information (trends and emerging issues) to enable you to build a long term context for your strategic planning today.

Doing ES: Focus

Focusing your Scanning

But, lots of information out there, so how to focus effort?

The anchor
You can just scan (undirected), but a poor use of resources in a strategy project.
An anchor or framing question directs and focuses scanning.

The anchor
What is the key strategic issue?
This is the framing question.

What do we need to know about the issue?

These are the factors that will influence the decision.

What are trends and drivers of change affecting these factors?

This becomes the focus for environmental scanning:
education specific, and broad, global forces.

The Scanning Process

The External Environment

Social Environment
Driving Forces

Education Environment
Suppliers Students Educational Organisation

Factors / Trends Issues / Forces

Social Technological Economic Ecological Political

Customers Clients Members of Wider Society Competitors

Driving Forces

Adapted from K. van der Heijden

The External Environment

Industry Learning Online Organisation Sustainability Engagement Vocational Imperative Funding

Educational Gaming

The External Environment

Globalisation
Global Technology

Demographics & generational change Learning

Industry

Educational Gaming Lifestyle Online

Environment

Organisation Sustainability Engagement Values Vocational Imperative Funding

Economy Politics

The External Environment

Wild card

Globalisation
Global Wild card Industry Learning Educational Gaming Online Technology

Demographics & generational change

Wild card Lifestyle

Environment

Organisation Sustainability Engagement Values Vocational Imperative Funding

Economy Politics

Wild card

Event

Trend (grouping of events)

Driver (moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)

When you start scanning, you will find lots of events Event

Trend (grouping of events)

Driver (moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)

Event

Gradually, you will be able to group similar hits into broader categories trends.

Trend (grouping of events)

Driver (moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)

But it might still feel like this a bit of a maze to try and work your way through

What we are really interested in exploring is what is driving these trends.

Event

Trend (grouping of events)

Driver (moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)

And consider: What is the counter trend? What is the wildcard?

And this is where the connections between the trends will surface and it will make sense.

Trends And Emerging Issues

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Late Majority
Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Laggards

Mainstream Trends Emerging Issues

Innovators
Today

Late Adopters

Few cases, local focus

Early adopters

Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

Trends And Emerging Issues

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Government Institutions
Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs

Late Majority Laggards

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Mainstream Trends
Late Adopters

Few cases, local focus

Today

Emerging Issues
Innovators Early adopters

Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

Trends And Emerging Issues

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Most scanning takes place here

Government Institutions
Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs

Late Majority Laggards

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Mainstream Trends
Late Adopters

Few cases, local focus

Today

Emerging Issues
Innovators Early adopters

Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

Trends And Emerging Issues

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
Number of cases; degree of public awareness

But we need to look on the fringe as well

Government Institutions
Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals,blogs

Late Majority Laggards

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Mainstream Trends
Late Adopters

Few cases, local focus

Today

Emerging Issues
Innovators Early adopters

Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

UNCERTAINTY
High Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years)

The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions Trend Linear Future Low Today TIME Future

UNCERTAINTY
High Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years)

Possible Futures

Trend Linear Future Low Today TIME Future

UNCERTAINTY
High

Butdont forget the wildcard

Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years)

Possible Futures

Trend Linear Future Low Today TIME Future

Trends
Trends dont tell you anything someone has to interpret the trend for it to be meaningful.
Otherwise you are engaged in trend spotting as opposed to trend analysis.

 Extrapolations of the past and present, not future facts Uncertain future trajectories What assumptions underpin your thinking about outcomes?

Trends

Dont get lost in the data smog!

Emerging Issues Analysis

Trends are approaching mainstream nothing new. Emerging Issues is about whats at the horizon, at the periphery.
Realm of the weird and the whacky, so difficult to present with credibility.

Emerging Issues Analysis

Starts with a shift in values/perspectives need to search at the fringes Emergence people start to talk about it, but a minority easier to influence now Champion look for the thought leaders and rebels Defining event brings the issue to public attention morphs into a trend/harder to shape and influence

Emerging Issues Analysis

Because emerging issues are weak, obscure, crazy, and fragile, good practical people usually ignore or ridicule them. Since these useful ideas are not part of their commonsense, people conclude they are nonsense.
And this fact led me to formulate Dators Second Law of the Future. Namely, Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous.
Jim Dator, US Futurist

Emerging Issues
Particularly useful for challenging long held assumptions about how things will be.

Good for what if questions.

Where to Look

 If youre looking for new ideas that dont yet exist, dont talk to normal people because theyre just consuming what is available today find the weirdos and see what they are doing, what theyre making on their own, and say gee is there something I can mainstream from this? Tom Kelly Founder, Ideo

Where to look
Newspapers, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, universities.

Some Scanning Sites

These are Trendwatching meta-scanning Future Scanner sites. They Brain Reserve identify trends Shaping Tomorrow and leave it up to you to Now and Next interpret for The Tomorrow Project your context. SRIC-BI Arlington Institute (wildcards)

Looking for
Identify opinion leaders, the voice in the wilderness on the fringe:
Expert Professional Pundit Amateur Fringe

Shaping Tomorrow 2008

 Dont dismiss the outliers

Looking for
New First Idea Change Surprise Opportunity Threat
Competitive advantage comes from the periphery, from emerging issues not from trends.

Shaping Tomorrow 2008

Looking for
Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.
Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004

Some Examples

The impact of global trends...

THE GLOBAL BRAIN

A truly global explosion of talent

...the rise of pervasive computing and increasing connectedness

The potential impact of the metaverse where virtual and physical come together

World Future Society says

Quantum computers will arrive by 2021. Biometric security by 2010. Challenge of protecting privacy increasing. Virtual immortality is within reach. Power to make things invisible may be at hand. Artificial intelligence surpassing human intelligence. Virtual education mainstream by 2015. Human knowledge capability will continue to double every year. Technology will lead to educated illiterates. Butonly 30% of worlds population will have access to IT services by 2016.

...student choice and time, place and pace of learning

ONLINE OXYGEN

Online access for the masses

ONLINE OXYGEN

Training 10 million teachers

Photo: http://www.cyberpunkreview.com

Circa 1960

Filtering the right information from the exploding knowledge base will become critical

Changing demographics affecting rich and poor, east and west differently...

Understanding generational differences...

Environmental shifts...

Association for the Study of Peak Oil (www.peakoil.org): note that the US, Russian and European oil supplies have 'peaked' already years ago. After 2008, the global crisis kicks in.

The way we do business is changing.

Ethics and underpinning values are at risk...

...while the power of community grows

REALLY REAL

Democratisation of protests and e-activism

SNACK CULTURE

Deconstructing products - smaller, faster, cheaper

When is a hit useful?

When is a hit useful?

How will I separate signals of real change from the noise?

When is a hit useful?

Explore what is happening today. What are other people saying about its evolution over time? What impact might it have on your industry today and in the future? What might be the implications for your organisation?

When is a hit useful?

Use the three times on the radar test Are there lots of high quality links about it? Test the hit for relevance with your scanning team. Ask someone outside your immediate work area.

When is a hit useful?

Does the hit aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives? Does the hit explore trends and their potential impacts? Does the hit challenge existing assumptions underpinning current polices and practice?
Shaping Tomorrow

When is a scanning hit useful?

Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition your expertise, knowledge and insight is your best gauge. But, remember your blind spots!

Classifying Hits

Social

How to Classify Hits?

Technological

Economic

Environmental

STEEP or add in Values to make it VERY STEEP*

Political

*Marcus Barber, Looking Up, Feeling Good

Recording and Sharing Hits

What to Record
Title Summary Source and date published Initial assessment of implications Tag/STEEP

See Scanning Hit Record

 For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by SRI Business Intelligence):

2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of Packet Video (a developer of video streaming technology) from consumer to security applications. The companys technology could provide live feeds from the cockpits of hijacked planes.

Characteristics of a good scanner

Open mind

Curious

Systems thinker

Welcomes diversity

Thinks outside the box

Thinks outrageously at times

Challenge my assumption

Aware of own worldview

Worldview
What might seem real to you probably wont seem as real to the next person. How you filter information to create meaning is critical to understand.

Worldview
Need to challenge your filters so that you dont miss anything that might be important. Understand your filters and those for whom you are doing the scanning.

As you scan

What are the major driving forces? What big surprises are on the horizon? What are possible discontinuities (wildcards)?

As you scan
If you think thats rubbish, stop. First, ask why do I think its rubbish? Second, take another look. Third, ask what would enable you to accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is happening.

As you scan
If you see it three or more times in your scanning, your first reaction was probably wrong!

If you dont see it again, you were probably right!

Challenges You Might Face

Challenges: Info Overload

Challenges: Stretching Your Thinking

Challenges: Finding the Time

Individual Scanning Unconscious Implicit solitary

Environmental Scanning Conscious Explicit Collective

We do scanning to avoid having a perspective like this

Have fun!