Disaster management

Risk
Risk is the potential or likelihood of an emergency to occur. For example, the risk of damage to a structure from an earthquake is high if it is built on or adjacent to an active earthquake fault. The risk of damage to a structure where no earthquake fault exists is low.

What is Risk Management?

Risk Management is the name given to a logical and systematic method of identifying, analysing, treating and monitoring the risks involved in any activity.

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The basic process steps are:

Establish the context Identify the risks

Analyse the risks

Evaluate the risks Treat the risks
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Risk is dynamic and subject to constant

change, so the process includes continuing:

Monitoring and review

and

Communication & consultation

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The Risk Management process:

Establish the context

The strategic and organisational context in which risk management will take place.

For example, the nature of your business, the risks inherent in your business and your priorities.

Communicate & consult

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The Risk Management process:

Identify the risks

Defining types of risk Identifying the stakeholders, (i.e.,who is involved or affected). Past events, future developments.

Monitor and review Communicate & consult

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The Risk Management process:

Analyse the risks

How likely is the risk event to happen? (Probability and frequency?)

What would be the impact, cost or consequences of that event occurring? (Economic, political, social?)

Monitor and review Communicate & consult

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The Risk Management process:

Evaluate the risks

Rank the risks according to management priorities, by risk category and rated by likelihood and possible cost or consequence. Determine inherent levels of risk.

Monitor and review Communicate & consult

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The Risk Management process:

Treat the risks

Develop and implement a plan with specific counter-measures to address the identified risks. Consider: Priorities (Strategic and operational)

Resources (human, financial and technical)

Risk acceptance, (i.e., low risks)
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The Risk Management process:

Monitor and review

In identifying, prioritising and treating risks, organisations make assumptions and decisions based on situations that are subject to change, (e.g., the business environment, trading patterns, or government policies). Risk Management policies and decisions must be regularly reviewed.

Communicate & consult

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The Risk Management process:

Monitor and review

Risk Managers must monitor activities and processes to determine the accuracy of planning assumptions and the effectiveness of the measures taken to treat the risk. Methods can include data evaluation, audit, compliance measurement.

Communicate & consult

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Disaster management
Five phases Planning Mitigation Preparedness Response recovery

planning

Activities necessary to analyze and document the possibility of an emergency or disaster and the potential consequences or impacts on life, property, and the environment. This includes assessing the hazards, risks, mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery needs.

Mitigation

Activities that actually eliminate or reduce the probability of a disaster (for example, arms buildup to deter enemy attack, or legislation that requires stringent building codes in earthquake prone areas). It also includes long-term activities designed to reduce the effects of unavoidable disaster (for example, land use management, establishing comprehensive emergency management programs such as vegetation clearance in high fire danger areas, or building restrictions in potential flood zones).

Preparedness

Activities necessary to the extent that mitigation measures have not, or cannot, prevent disasters. In the preparedness phase, governments, organizations, and individuals develop plans to save lives and minimize disaster damage. For example, compiling state resource inventories, mounting training exercises, installing early warning systems, and preparing predetermined emergency response forces). Preparedness measures also seek to enhance disaster response operations (for example, by stockpiling vital food and medical supplies, through training exercises, and by mobilizing emergency response personnel on standby).

Response

Activities following an emergency or disaster. These activities are designed to provide emergency assistance for victims (for example, search and rescue, emergency shelter, medical care, and mass feeding). They also seek to stabilize the situation and reduce the probability of secondary damage (for example,shutting off contaminated water supply sources, and securing and patrolling areas prone to looting) and to speed recovery operations (for example, damage assessment).

Recovery

Activities necessary to return all systems to normal or better. They include two sets of activities: (1) short-term recovery activities return vital life support systems to minimum operating standards (for example, cleanup, temporary housing, and access to food and water), and (2) long-term recovery activities may continue for a number of years after a disaster. Their purpose is to return life to normal or improved levels (for example, redevelopment loans, legal assistance, and community planning)

Objectives of Early Warning

To be better prepared to face challenges of the risk of long term or sudden disasters by:
1. 2.

3.

Avoiding and reducing damages and loss Saving human lives, health , economic development and cultural heritage Upgrading quality of life, public and international image

Cyclone forecasting

Tropical Cyclones are intense low pressure systems which develop over warm sea. They are capable of causing immense damage due to strong winds,heavy rains and storm surges. The frequency of the TC in the Bay of Bengal is 4 to 5 times more than in the Arabian Sea. About 35% of initial disturbances in the north Indian ocean reach TC stage of which 45% become severe.

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is mandated to monitor and give warnings regarding Tropical Cyclone (TC). Monitoring process has been revolutionized by the advent of remote sensing techniques. A TC intensity analysis and forecast scheme has been worked out using satellite image interpretation techniques which facilitate forecasting of storm surges.

Satellite based observations are being extensively utilized. Satellite integrated automated weather stations have been installed on islands, oilrigs and exposed coastal sites. Four stages of warning system pre cyclone watch- contains early warning about the development of a cyclonic disturbance in the form of monsoon depression which has a potential to threaten the coast with cyclone force winds. Cyclone alerts-48 hours in advance of the expected commencement of adverse weather over the coastal areas. Forecasts of commencement of strong winds, heavy precipitation along the coast in association with arrival of cyclone are issued at the alert stage.

Cyclone warning-issued 24 hours in advance. Landfall point is forecast in this stage of cyclone warning. In addition to the forecasts for heavy rains and strong winds, the storm surge forecast is also issued. Post landfall scenario-After the landfall of the cyclone the strong winds with gale force speeds continue over certain interior districts of the maritime States hit by the cyclone. To take cognizance of that, a fourth stage known as Post-landfall Scenario Stage is now identified

Flood forecast

The flood forecasting and warning system is used for alerting the likely damage centers well in advance of the actual arrival of floods, to enable the people to move and also to remove the moveable property to safer places or to raised platforms specially constructed for the purpose. A computerized monitoring system has been developed under which daily water levels as observed at 0800 hrs. and forecasts issued by field units are transmitted to CWC headquarters in New Delhi.

Based on the compilation of all such data received from field divisions, daily water level and flood forecast bulletins in two parts for stage and for inflow forecasting stations respectively. Special Yellow Bulletins are issued whenever the river stage at theforecasting site attains a level within 0.50 m of its previous HFL. Red Bulletins highlighting security of the problem are also issued whenever the water level at the forecasting stations equals or exceeds previous HFL

Earthquake early warning

Tremors extend out from the seismic focus in a wave-like motion. There are two main types of seismic waves: P-waves, or initial tremors, and S-wave, or main tremors. P-waves are the first to travel outward. They are followed by S-waves, which cause stronger tremors. Most earthquake-induced damage results from these Swaves. Traveling speed of seismic waves -- P-waves (cause rattling tremors): around 7km/s S-waves (cause larger, more powerful tremors): around 4km/s The purpose of the earthquake early warning is to quickly announce to the public that an earthquake has occurred and to inform them of the estimated seismic intensity several seconds or more before the arrival of strong tremors caused by the quake. In those areas close to the focus of the earthquake, however, the

Earthquake

Tsunami Warning System (TWS)

depend on the fact that, while tsunamis travel at between 500 and 1,000 km/h (around 0.14 and 0.28 km/s) in open water, earthquakes can be detected almost at once as seismic waves travel with a typical speed of 4 km/s (around 14,400 km/h). This gives time for a possible tsunami forecast to be made and warnings to be issued to threatened areas, if warranted. Unfortunately, until a reliable model is able to predict which earthquakes will produce significant tsunamis, this approach will produce many more false alarms than verified warnings. In the correct operational paradigm, the seismic alerts are used to send out the watches and warnings. Then, data from observed sea level height (either shore-based tide gauges) are used to verify the existence of a tsunami. Other systems have been proposed to augment the warning paradigm. For example, it has been suggested that the duration and frequency content of twave energy (which is earthquake energy trapped in the ocean) is indicative of an earthquake's tsunami potential. After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami which killed almost 230,000 people, a United Nations conference was held in January 2005 in Kobe, Japan, and decided that as an initial step towards an International Early Warning Programme, the UN should establish an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System.This then resulted in a system of warnings in Indonesia.This will also save the lives and the livelihood of the people.

mitigation
flood Constructing embankments to control flood. Desilting of dam. earthquake The building construction in urban and suburban areas is regulated by the Town and Country Planning Acts and Building Regulations. training of masons for earthquake resistant constructions. Construction of small and compact houses.

Cyclone strengthening of monitoring/warning systems. Coastal shelter belt plantation, mangrove plantation, construction of cyclone shelters storm surge modeling and water envelope studies.

preparedness

Specialist search and rescue unit including doctors, paramedics, structural engineers etc. mobile hospitals with all medical and emergency equipments. Public awareness The Geographical Information System (GIS) data base is an effective tool for emergency responders to access information in terms of crucial parameters for the disaster affected areas. The crucial parameters include location of the public facilities, communication links and transportation network at national, state and district levels.