Gold ~ Daily Continuation

A few weeks ago it was suggested that gold was just beginning a multi-week decline that should take it to $1,626. So far, so good on that call. It feels like the meat of the decline is over with the 61.8% retrace looming as decent support to the bulls. Bears/shorts should consider trimming bearish positions in front of that support, or at least be using $1,685 for a stop loss point. 1685 is the 61.8% retrace of the move down from $1,717.40

COPIED from 3/18/12

1,761 = resistance

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold ~ Daily Continuation

Last weeks lone support point held right on the spot. Who sells the 61.8% retracement on the first go? It was a nice bounce from $1,626 but we cannot confirm that the wave down from $1,792 is over. New bulls/longs should use $1,641 and $1,626 for first and second levels of support. We had been suggesting a neutral triangle development from the highs, but given the similar duration of the legs and the lack of fibonacci relationship between the waves flowing in the same direction, its possible were dealing with seven-legged diametric pattern.
b d

e?

a
c

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold ~ 60 Min. Chart

Its possible to count out the decline down from $1,792 as seven legged correction (diametric). In order to prove that the decline is over, the market must rally harder than any previous bounce (green dashed box). In this case, that line comes in around $1,683. Right now gold is rubbing against the 23.6% retrace at $1,666--thats first level of resistance in the week ahead. $1,683 should be considered second level resistance and an important point for the market to better.

b d

e g

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

g

COPIED from 3/18/12

The wave labeling here is a guess. Its still too difficult to decipher with much confidence

c d a b

1202

Since the rally began at 1202, the market has only witnessed one minor 23.6% retracement which then led the way to last weeks huge snap back rally. The persistent and powerful nature of this advance reinforces the idea that this is a thrust out of a triangle that concluded at 1202. Weve been employing the concept of raising stops every week to either stay with length and/or avoid shorting until a confirmed breakdown. Obviously, weve seen not a whiff a breakdown yet. Consider using 1378 as a first level support. The market clearly broke out above that previous resistance point, so it should now serve as support. The 1440 resistance point comes from the 85% retrace of the entire decline (2008-2009) and also aligns with longer term class chart resistance. 1440 stands out enough that it should elicit at some selling from the technical trading crowd.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

i g

e
h c f

d
a

1202

Shocker! Nothing really changed with the S&P500 last week. Minor support held with resistance and support levels unchanged from last week. The wave count up from 1202 is still a little mysterious but a symmetrical pattern would be my guess. In a symmetrical the waves flowing in the same direction all have a similar duration and size. That concept fits the bill here. If thats what is going on, then we should expect one more new high on this move. In the meantime, stay vigilant with the support levels-breaks of 1378 and 1340 would start to create a true breakdown in this market.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

c
81.78

COPIED from 3/18/12

(a)

-b(c)

-a78.10

(b) -cd

The DXY closed right at our key resistance last week and then failed. It looks like the -c- of d-wave has commenced. The trend should be lower/sideways price action for the next few weeks. The -a- = -c- target aligns with the 61.8% retrace at 77.42. That looks like a viable target for this move if the count is correct. DXY shorts/bears should consider 80.42 and 80.74 as first and second resistance for stop loss strategies.
b

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

c

-b(c) (a)

-a78.10

(b) -cd

Last week we predicted more downward/sideways price action--the market did not disappoint. The DXY still looks like it has further to fall on this move. Bears/shorts should consider lowering their stops using 79.57 and 79.95 as first and second level resistance points. A move down to 77.42 would not be a surprise.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.