S&P 500 ~ Weekly Longer Term Count Updated

Confidence in the previous longer term counting of the y and x waves has wavered due to the price behavior of the market. I am now forced to make a slight adjustment to the previous longstanding count. Its becoming obvious that the last x wave did not conclude at the 1075 low--it had to have concluded later if thats even the correct count. The idea of contracting triangle x wave fits with the thrusting nature of this market since the year began. Confidence in this wave count is tepid.

y
b

(B) z
d

COPIED from 2/20/12

b a

w
d
e

e?

x
c a c e

x (C)

(A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily Longer Term Count

(B) z y
b

d b a e

x
e?

c a

e c

The thrust out of a triangle is typically limited to 75-125% of the widest leg, which in this case would be an extremely wide range of outcomes between 1375 and 1525 depending on where exactly the ewave (within x) concluded. I think this wave, though, will end up limited by its relationship to the y wave. It should be, 62-78% of y, which would suggest a move to 1400-1450.

(A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Current Rally with Weekly Support

As the Talking Heads sang Same as it ever was... The market continued its grind higher. One interesting thing to observe is that the S&P 500 is struggling a bit to get back to the upper end of the trend channel--this is usually a signal of a market thats losing its energy. Bulls/Longs should raise stops yet again because when this channel breaks, it should be fairly violent, a la the Gold market this week.

COPIED from 3/04/12

This would be support area on a breakdown.

Consider using 1352 and 1337 for first and second levels of support. 1337 would be a 23.6% retrace of the entire last move--a level that also aligns with prior short term support.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

The break of the clear trendline did generate strong selling last week, but the market FAILED to get below the second level of support at 1337, the 23.6% retracement. Not only that, but the strong bounce back to close the week makes the latest move look like the beginning of a triangle pattern at the top--not really a bearish development. Basis this triangle concept, 1337 and 1378 should serve as the band of support/resistance in the week ahead. Breaks of those levels, particularly the 1337, should lead to increased volatility in the direction of the break.
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

c
81.78

COPIED from 3/04/12

-b(c) (a)

-a78.10

(b) d

It still looks like the wave down from 81.78 has further to develop -- it does not look like a completed wave form at the 78.10 low. So, were likely seeing an expanded flat -b- wave. It would not be a surprise to see the market rally to the mid 80s before taking a larger leg down. 80.53 would be the 61.8% retrace of the proposed -a- wave and 138.2% of (a) = (c), a nice target for an expanded flat correction.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

c
81.78

-b(c)

(a)

-a78.10

(b) -cd

The DXY looks like it has further to move before the -b- wave finishes. This move may be what helps the S&P500 correct lower to start the week. Ultimately though, it does look like the dollar has one more decent little wave down (the -c- of d-wave), so maybe that will be the gyration which causes the S&P500 to breakout higher one more time.
b

I really like 80.53 as being good resistance that should cap the DXY in the near term.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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