ACCELERATING SEA LEVEL RISE: and Floridas Tenuous Coastal Future

Harold R. Wanless
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/lecz.jsp

Department of Geological Sciences University of Miami hwanless@miami.edu

Ecology Club Palm Beach State College Boca Raton

Mostly < 10 feet

February 10, 2012

HUMAN-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL.

+2

/yr m pp

yr pm/ +1 p

AND IS ACCELERATING!

GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL

ov e e e pr r iou v 2,0 s

0y 0

r ea

8-

n di fol

a re c

Present global rise = 30 cm/century = S. Florida rate

1930

MOST OF THIS RISE IS BECAUSE OF THERMAL EXPANSION OF THE OCEAN

Key West Sea Level y 0

South Florida sea level rise = 30 cm/century = global rate
8s ov e e e pr r us v io ,00 2

r ea

n di fol

a re c

1997 El Nino

1930

SAME AS GLOBAL BUT WITH MORE VARIABILITY

Sea level rise is running at the high end of predictions and is accelerating!

lite el at S

try e H ltim HIG A

M DIU ME
LOW

Global sea level rise (based on tide gauge and satellite data) has been following the highest end of the 2001 IPCC sea level projection.

Rapid atmospheric and ocean warming in the Arctic and Antarctic is now driving accelerating ice melt and sea level rise.

ACCELERATING ICE MASS LOSS ON GREENLAND AND ANTARCTICA FROM THE GRACE SATELLITES
Antarctica Ice Loss

an ice loss acceleration of -30 km3/yr/yr

Science, October 6, 2009, p.217.

Rate of mass loss has more than doubled over past 7 years on both Greenland and Antarctica. Is now an annual 17% acceleration in melt rate and a 5% acceleration in the contribution to rise in sea level.

Velicogna, 2009. Geophysical Research Letters

Accelerated ice melt on both Greenland and Antarctica began in mid 1990s and now is the dominant contributor to sea level rise.

River on Greenland Ice Sheet flowing down moulin to lubricate base.

There is no uncertainty that global sea level is rising at an accelerating rate because of human induced global warming of the atmosphere and ocean. The only uncertainty is how fast and how soon will it severely impact us.

Scientists on the Miami-Dade County Climate Change Advisory Task Force:

With what is happening in the Arctic and Greenland, [there will be] a likely sea level rise of at least 1.5 feet in the coming 50 years and a total of at least 3-5 feet by the end of the century, possibly significantly more. Spring high tides would be at +7 to +9 feet. This does not take into account the possibility of a catastrophically rapid melt of land-bound ice from Greenland, and it makes no assumptions about Antarctica. The projected rises will just be the beginning because of further significant releases from Greenland and possibly Antarctica.
(September 20, 2007)

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is now required to incorporate likely sea level rise into all planning; this is also used by the Southeast Florida Regional Planning Council

With continued melt from the Ice Sheets at the current acceleration, and conservative but realistic projections for glacial ice melt and further expansion of the oceans through warming, sea level will be at least 4.5 feet higher ( ) by the end of the century likely much more.

If at + 5 feet at 2100, sea level will be rising at 1 foot per decade and accelerating!

North Pole web cam August 25, 2007

Ice reflects nearly all incoming solar radiation back into the air and space. Open water absorbs over 90% of incoming solar radiation

ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT

9/9/2011 AREAS WITH > 15% ICE

Arctic sea ice has reached it minimum for the year and is essentially tied with 2007 for record low areal extent but the ice is significantly thinner than in 2007, so volume is dramatically less. 2011 Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Median 1979-2000

 2011 was an extraordinary melt year because the Arctic weather

was normal. In 2007 weather was anomalous, forcing high melt. Arctic sea ice is now too thin to hold up under normal conditions. It is now likely that the Arctic will have ice free summers within 15 years and possibly within 2. As the Arctic goes from white ice to dark ocean in the summer, the Arctic Ocean is rapidly adsorbing heat from the sun.

Less and less thick (old) ice each year.

ARCTIC PACK ICE THICKNESS
(thin broken up ice)

(thicker ice)

National Snow and Ice Data Center, 2010

Tundra and permafrost rim the Arctic Ocean

Tundra and permafrost beneath is frozen ground 150-2,000 feet thick. Huge amounts of organics are frozen in the permafrost. 80% of tundra is within 100 km of Arctic Sea Ice. 20% of tundra has been lost since the 1980s. 3-5 meters of permafrost are expected to melt in the coming 100 years (Ted Schuur, University of Florida). Organic decay from melting the upper 3 meters of permafrost will release as much CO2 as is presently in the atmosphere.

Methane Hydrates

An ice cage with a methane inside.

Occurs both on the sea floor and in permafrost.

Arctic Shallow shelf and on land Tropical > 2,000 meters

Reinforcing feedbacks in the Arctic and Greenland make future rapid warming and accelerating sea level rise inevitable and unstoppable.
Reinforcing feedbacks: Greenland 1. Surface melt areas adsorb more heat. 2. Melt water lubricates base of ice sheet 3. Rapid loss to ocean 4. Lowering of ice sheet elevation 5. Further warming and destabilization. Reinforcing feedbacks: Arctic Ocean 1. Persistent warming from atmosphere. 2. More open water 3. More heat adsorption 4. More melting 5. Warming of adjacent tundra and northern Greenland 6. Accelerated release of CO2, CH4, and ice melt

South Florida 1995

CR

TP

CS

+2 foot rise (mhhw = +4.5 above 1929 MSL)

South Florida ~2060

CR C

TP

CS

1-2 versus 3-5 All the difference

A 1-2 foot rise this century

Miami, barrier islands and upper Keys are still sort of inhabitable; probably worth throwing up extensive defenses; and just maybe will get hold of global warming problem before all is lost.

Every county and city urgently needs accurate and detailed elevation maps from which to assess future drainage and infrastructure risk.

In SE Florida, a 50 cm (20 inch) sea level rise will make 80% of our coastal water control structures useless.

1-2 versus 3-5 All the difference

3-5 foot rise this century

All barrier islands abandoned; Miami-Dade & Broward diminished and risky place to live - including all of the Florida Keys; increased pollution risk from eroding dumps; sea level rising at 0.6 to1 foot per decade.

+4 foot rise (mhhw = +6.5 above 1929 MSL)

South Florida ~2085

CR

TP

CS

+5 foot rise (mhhw = +7.5 above 1929 MSL)

South Florida ~2102

CR

STORM SURGES FROM ALL SIDES

CS

TP

+6 foot rise (mhhw = +8.5 above 1929 MSL)

South Florida ~2112

CR

?? EMBAYMENT ZONE OF HIGHER TIDES ??

TP

CS

ON TOP OF THIS SEA LEVEL RISE WILL BE HIGHER TIDES AND STORM SURGES

Bolivar Peninsula, Texas Hurricane Ike, Category 2, September 2008

from PPT by William B Potter

SEPT 2008
This is high tide in the 1700 block of North Bayshore Dr., Miami FL. Unfortunately, this flooding is not associated with storm surge or any other exceptional tidal or weather event. It has become the regular twice a day occurrence of the tide.
from Tim O. Walker

By 2050, Earth is projected to have at least 200 million climate-displaced refugees. Miami is the most vulnerable - But may not be the first.

Regional influences in SLR

Regional subsidence or uplift of land.

Post glacial rebound, collapse of peripheral bulge, tectonic, from withdrawal of fluids.

Changing speed or pattern of currents. Redistribution of balance of mass

between water and land on the planet, affecting Earth's rotation (causing water to build up along the North American coasts and in the Indian Ocean).

NEW YORK South Manhattan

Presently has relative Sea-level rise of ~55 cm /century MOST VULNERABLE LOW-LYING LAND Filled Land Filled Marsh Filled Lakes
Most coastal fill is less than 2 meters above sea level.

SHANGHAI

Population 16 million, Average elevation 4 meters, On the Yangtze River delta, A 6.9 meter dyke presently protects portions of the city from typhoons surges, 9 subways but -

Shanghai is rapidly subsiding from groundwater withdrawal (current rates are 1-2 meters/century)!
15 cm

Subsidence rates for Shanghai (mm/yr)

10 years

from: Liu, Luo, Chen, Huang and Ding, 2008

MUMBAI, INDIA
-15 million people. -One fourth of area is at or below sea level. -Current sea level rise is ~20 cm / century MOST VULNERABLE LOW-LYING LAND Filled from Sea Sandy Coastal Strand Filled Marsh Low Land and Drained Marsh Rocky Upland

+6 ft

+5 ft

+4 ft

MUMBAI
22 million (really 30+)

+3 ft

3 million passengers a day 4 feet above sea level

The problem of a philosophy of permanence of place & environment

We

just cant imaging losing where we are. us want to defend!!

Makes

IMPORTANTLY, FLORIDA IS UNDERLAIN BY POROUS LIMESTONE AND SAND We cannot build dikes to keep out rising water.
BLUE IS POROSITY
Thin section of Miami Limestone from Dr. Donald McNeill

Areas > 5 feet above mean sea level

Key Biscayne Potentially emergent areas at MHHW with a +2.5 foot sea level rise

Elevations based on 1962 USGS topographic map

Will actually look more like this

The problem is that sandy barrier islands will try to move landward
or if the rise is too fast, it will just be over ridden and abandoned.

Cape Romano, November 18, 2003

With a 4-5 foot rise in sea level, essentially all sandy barrier islands on Earth will be abandoned - rapidly migrating landward or being overridden. Tidal inlets will become more numerous, and many lagoons will become basically open to the sea

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LiDAR MAPS

PRESENT TOPOGRAPHY
D D D MIA T D

from P. Harlem, 2010

+0.6 m (+2 ft)

Sea Level Rise

~2060
D MIA

D TURKEY POINT

MHW

100% land area

MHW

72% land remains

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LiDAR MAPS from P. Harlem, 2010

+1.2 m (+4 ft)
Sea Level Rise
D D

~2090
D MIA

+1.8 m (+6 ft)

Sea Level Rise
T D

~2112
D MIA

MHW

62% land remains

MHW

44% land remains 73% of that is less than 2 feet above sea level

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LiDAR MAPS from P. Harlem, 2010

+2.4 m (+8 ft)
Sea Level Rise
D D

~2120
D MIA

+3.0 m (+10 ft)

Sea Level Rise
T D

~2135
D MIA

MHW

12% land remains

MHW

9% land remains

Now the bad news The warming we're on track to do now is more than enough to commit us to lastinterglacial levels of sea-level rise. (Kopp, Nature, 2009).

We have seriously increased the warming stressors. We must expect ice melt and sea level to respond as it has in the past.

Today

Preindustrial

?
From Hansen, 2009, p. 153

2100

If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions, By 2100

CO2 concentrations will

likely be more than 700 ppm

Global average

temperatures projected to increase between 2.510.4F

Last time carbon dioxide

was so high, se level was over 100 feet higher. Source: OSTP

Climate, Ice and Sea Level Do Not Respond Gradually to stresses

When stressed and destabilized, climate, polar

ice and sea level will, at some point, reach a tipping point and undergo rapid change towards a new state.

IPCC and other climate and sea level

forecasts assume gradual linear responses and changes - not sudden tipping points, switches to new states, rapidly reinforcing feedbacks, rapid ice melts and rapid sea level rises.

FLORIDA THROUGH TIME

s mile 100

120,000 years ago 18,000 years ago + 6 meters - 120 meters ~ from Greenland ~ from Antarctica

Today How did this sea level rise occur?

PROJECTED SEA LEVEL RISE RATE BY 2100

Based on Fairbanks, 1989

SLIDE COURTESY OF ROB THIELER, USGS

PROJECTED SEA LEVEL RISE RATE BY 2100

Based on Fairbanks, 1989

SLIDE COURTESY OF ROB THIELER, USGS

SEA LEVEL STILL STANDS AND RAPID RISES

-65 m -71 m -80 m

LOCKER et al

LOCKER ET AL, 1996 -Florida Straits

Recent research shows that relative sea level rise is not a simple curve but one with significant stalls and rapid rises.

6m 9m

- 65 m 220 yrs - 71 m 500 yrs - 80 m

As sea level was first advancing out of the last ice age, it rose in 6-10 meter steps 200500 years apart, each still stand leaving a distinct, cemented, oolitic sand beach ridge.

SEA LEVEL STILL STANDS AND RAPID RISES

-65 m -71 m -80 m

LOCKER et al

LOCKER ET AL, 1996 -Florida Straits JARRETT ET AL, 2005 - SW Florida Shelf

Pulley Ridge, a deep coral reef capping a drowned barrier island formed during two sea level still stands.
-71m -80m

From: Jarrett et al, Marine Geology, 2005

SEA LEVEL STILL STANDS AND RAPID RISES

-19 m -27 m -38 m ANDERSON ET AL, 2004 - Texas Shelf RODRIGUEZ ET AL, 2000 - Texas Shelf

LOCKER ET AL, 1996 LOCKER ET AL, 1996 -Florida Straits -FloridaET AL, 2005 Straits JARRETT JARRETTFlorida Shelf - SW ET AL, 2005

et al

- SW Florida Shelf

Steps of rapid sea level rise Texas Shelf T

-19 m -27 m -38 m

et

ANDERSON ET AL, 2004 - Texas Shelf RODRIGUEZ ET AL, al 2000 - Texas Shelf

+8m +11m

-19m -27m -38m

Sand Tidal Delta, built to intertidal

John Anderson, Rice University

SEA LEVEL STILL STANDS AND RAPID RISES

MILLIKEN ET AL, 2008 Texas Shelf

-9, -6 m -16,-15,-14,-13 m ANDERSON ET AL, 2004 - Texas Shelf RODRIGUEZ ET AL, 2000 - Texas Shelf

LOCKER ET AL, 1996 -Florida Straits JARRETT ET AL, 2005 - SW Florida Shelf

et al

SEA LEVEL STILL STANDS AND RAPID RISES

, *D & W, 1991GELSANLITER, 1996

MILLIKEN ET AL, 2008 Texas Shelf ANDERSON ET AL, 2004 - Texas Shelf RODRIGUEZ ET AL, 2000 - Texas Shelf

-2.6, -1.8, -1.2 m

LOCKER ET AL, 1996 -Florida Straits JARRETT ET AL, 2005 - SW Florida Shelf

et al

*D & W = DOMINGUEZ AND WANLESS, 1991

- Florida and Brazil

Florida Bay was inundated during two pulses of sea level rise between 4,500 and 3,200 ybp.

3,200 ybp coastline 1 4,000 ybp coastline

3 4

GOPHER CREEK

E E TH TH

E VE OV O GR GR AN AN M M

Gelsanliter, 1996

Adapted from

T T AS AS CO CO

CAPE SABLE

E NE IIN TL TL AS AS CO CO

0 0 20 20 3 3,,

B B YP YP

Florida Bay

Ev erg lad es

A small, rapid rise 2,500-2,400 ybp; then a 400 year period of intensive sediment erosion and recycling.

1 meter

Gelsanliter, 1996

LAST
COASTAL STABILIZATION & SED RECYCLING

COA ERO S TAL SIO N an I NU d N DA TI O N

CAN THERE BE SIGNIFICANT RAPID SEA LEVEL PULSES IN THE FUTURE? YES.
A. DURING THE LAST INTERGLACIAL, ABOUT 130,000-120,000 YEARS AGO, SEA LEVEL ROSE RAPIDLY PAST PRESENT SEA LEVEL TO ABOUT + 7 METERS AT A RATE THAT COASTAL DEPOSITS DID NOT FORM.

PLEISTOCENE 130-120,000 YEAR OLD REEF FORMED WHERE SUBSTRATE WAS < 13m. SHELF MARGIN TOO DEEP FOR REEF GROWTH

125,000 ybp SEA LEVEL

PRESENT SEA LEVEL

+4 m

DEPTH OF REEF INITIATION

-9 m

B. Evidence for brief 82,000 ybp highstand at +2.5m ABOUT 84,000 YERS AGO SEA LEVEL ROSE FROM ABOUT -30 METERS TO +2.5 METERS AT AN AVERAGE RATE OF ~2 METERS/CENTURY, LEAVING NO COASTAL DEPOSITS BELOW +2.5 METERS
(from Dorale, J.A., et al., 2010, Science v. 327, p. 860.)

70

85

100 Age (ka)

115

130

With the CO2 levels now reached, the oceanic warming achieved, and the initiation of melt on both Ice Sheets It is time to begin the consideration of pulses of rapid sea level rise in the 1-10 meter range in the near future. Leading to 10-30 m (33-100 ft) sea level rise from multiple pulses of sea level rise.
Elevations greater than 150

Recommend quick planning and implementation for putting things too important to loose and too valuable to be disrupted

At greater than 165 feet (>50 meters) elevation and In areas that will not be in the chaos of rapid relocation.
Elevations greater than 150

At the beginning of the Century, we watched rapid melting of Greenlands margin

100 mi

2001

2002

2003

From atmospheric warming of the Arctic

Lakes, rivers and moulins (openings through which water pours down through the ice) in the Greenland Ice Sheet

Each year being more and moving higher.

Meltwater lake and streams on the Greenland Ice Sheet near 68N at 1000 meters altitude. Photo by Ian Joughin. From Realclimate.org

MOULINS
Like karst in limestones

Water lubricates base of ice sheet and results in sliding, fracturing and weakening of the ice sheet.

The Jacobshavn Isbreen (5 km wide and 1.5 km deep) is now moving at 15km a year into the sea, although in surges it moves even faster. One surge moved 5 km in 90 minutes - an extraordinary event. Its exuding like toothpaste.
(Dr. Robert Corell, Chair Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Sept 8, 2007)

"Five years ago we made models predicting how much ice would melt and when. "Five years later we are already at the levels predicted for 2040, in a year's time we'll be at 2050."

(Veli Albert Kallio, Finnish polar/ice scientist, September 8, 2007)

ACCELERATING ICE MASS LOSS ON GREENLAND AND ANTARCTICA FROM THE GRACE SATELLITES
Antarctica Ice Loss

an ice loss acceleration of -30 km3/yr/yr

Science, October 6, 2009, p.217.

Rate of mass loss more than doubled on both Greenland and Antarctica between 2002 and 2009. Is now an annual 17% acceleration in melt rate and a 5% acceleration in the contribution to rise in sea level.

Velicogna, 2009. Geophysical Research Letters

Map of Greenland showing locations of 184 glacial earthquakes for the period 19932005. Note the tight clustering of earthquake epicenters near major outlet glaciers.

M. Nettles and G. Ekstrom, 2010. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2010.38:467-491. doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-040809-152414

Antarctic teleseismic detections that are likely to correspond to glacial earthquakes.

M. Nettles and G. Ekstrom, 2010. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2010.38:467-491. doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-040809-152414

Collapsing front of glacial outlets produce seismic events.

70 m

Helheim Glacier, Greenland

M. Nettles and G. Ekstrom, 2010. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2010.38:467-491. doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-040809-152414

700 m

ICE DISCHARGE THROUGH OUTLET GLACIERS HAS DRMATICALLY INCREASED BECAUSE OF WARM OCEAN WATERS MOVING IN BELOW The Jacobshavn Isbreen in western Greenland (5 km wide and 1.5 km deep) is now moving at more 15km a year into the sea, although in surges it moves even faster.

We now know that warm waters moving under the outlets are driving the accelerated melt.

Jacobshavn Isbreen I in Ilulissat, Vestgrnland (Greenland); Photograph by Dirk Jenrich

2009- Pine Island Glacier, a major outlet for the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet (WAIS), is melting at a rate 4 times faster than just a decade ago because of warming waters. It is thinning at 16 m per year 90 m in the past decade.

WAIS
Pine Island Glacier

A. Shepard, University of Leeds, August 2009.

PINE ISLAND GLACIER - Major outlet for West Antarctic Ice Sheet
In October 2009, a series of flights over Antarctica led to the discovery of a hidden feature beneath a floating ice shelf. Scientists participating in NASAs Operation IceBridge mapped the water depth and seafloor topography beneath Pine Island Glacier and found a deepwater channela likely pathway for warm water to reach the glaciers underbelly and melt it from below. The top image above shows the bathymetry beneath Pine Island Glacier. The deepest regions (navy blue) are about 1,200 meters (3,900 feet) deep while elevated seamounts and shoals (pale blue to white) are mostly 200 meters (650 feet) below sea level. The lower image shows Pine Island Glacier and the surrounding solid land in Antarctica as they appear from space in a Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica. The black, jagged outline in both images shows the grounding line, the point where the

acquired October 16 - November 9, 2009

Estuarine circulation now promoting rapid melting beneath ice.

Cooled less dense melt water flows out

Warm denser ocean water flows in

60 kilometers

d d an an ng g iing g xn elltt xiin Me m M mii

Can melt much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from below and have in the past.
Ronne-Fincher Ice Shelf

Pine Island Glacier

Ross Ice Shelf

= Pine Island glacier outlet of West Antarctic Ice Sheet = was open seaway during last interglacial (when sea level was 20 higher than today)

Earth has a close to catastrophic evolution of its coastal and lowlying environments, habitats, infrastructure and resources underway.

 We probable will have to deal with the beginning several feet of the coming sea level rise. +4 ft If humanity quickly gets its act together, we may be able to prevent this. +6 ft If we do not, south Florida will most certainly look like this within a couple of centuries, +20 ft possibly within this century.

What level of uncertainty accompanies the models, predictions and empirical measurements upon which these estimates are based?

Minimum is quite certain and should be accelerating. Consensus that there will be accelerating SLR well beyond end of century unless we rapidly reduce GHG levels in atmosphere. Not certain when there will be rapid pulses of ice release and melt and sea level rise BUT IT WILL HAPPEN.

What can we do?

Most critically, we need to get off the CO2-producing addiction.

/yr m pp

+2

Presently 387 ppm and rising about 2.5 ppm / year 350 ppm

/y ppm +1

325 ppm

Leading climatologist, Dr. James Hansen, says we quickly need to reduce atmospheric CO2 to 325-350 ppm.

We must stop warming.

Lowering atmospheric CO2 will slow the heat imbalance between the atmosphere and the ocean.
/yr m pp

+2

350 ppm

/y ppm +1

325 ppm

This probably will not slow the first 3-5 feet of sea level rise, but may be a step for limiting a catastrophic greater rise.

The United States is still the leading cause of global warming.

We must take the lead in -

Drastically reducing our greenhouse gas and fine particulate soot production and release. Rapid development and implementation of truly clean energy sources. Removing CO from the atmosphere. 2 Then, we can take the leadership that the world will follow.

In a time of rapid sea level rise, we must work responsibly to reduce economic risk in coastal development, risk to human life and property, environmental degradation associated with challenging an advancing ocean, the level of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.

It is curiously inconvenient and a bit comic now but not when you visualize the remainder of the century.

Venice, Italy

You have front row seats right here in Florida for a while.

SEPT 2008 High tide in the 1700 block of North Bayshore Dr., Miami FL. Unfortunately, this flooding is not associated with storm surge or any other exceptional tidal or weather event.

Miami-Dade

Present topography as shown with LiDAR elevation from P. Harlem, 2011 data

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 1 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 2 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 3 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 4 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 5 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 6 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 7 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 8 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 9 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

Miami-Dade

Inundation from 10 ft. Sea Level Rise

from P. Harlem, 2011

This 113 page PowerPoint is the property of Harold R. Wanless and may be copied only in its entirety and only for non-profit educational purposes. hwanless@miami.edu