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Wadia Haddaji Department of Economics Duke University RK-CH

What are they? Some examples

Valuation Interest rate sensitivity

Coupon bonds

Valuation Interest rate sensitivity

2

What is a Bond?

A bond is a security that obligates the issuer to make specified interest and principal payments to the holder on specified dates. Coupon rate Face value (or par) Maturity (or term) Bonds are also called fixed income securities. Bonds differ in several respects: Repayment type Issuer Maturity Security Priority in case of default

3

Repayment Schemes

Pay no coupons prior to maturity. Pay the bonds face value at maturity.

Coupon Bonds

Pay a stated coupon at periodic intervals prior to maturity. Pay the bonds face value at maturity.

Floating-Rate Bonds

Pay a variable coupon, reset periodically to a reference rate. Pay the bonds face value at maturity.

No maturity date. Pay a stated coupon at periodic intervals.

Pay a regular fixed amount each payment period. Principal repaid over time rather than at maturity.

4

Bonds Government Bonds Mortgage-Backed Securities Municipal Bonds Corporate Bonds Asset-Back Securities

Issuer US Treasury, Government Agencies Government agencies (GNMA etc) State and local government Corporations Corporations

Treasury Bills

No coupons (zero coupon security) Face value paid at maturity Maturities up to one year

Treasury Notes

Coupons paid semiannually Face value paid at maturity Maturities from 2-10 years

Treasury Bonds

Coupons paid semiannually Face value paid at maturity Maturities over 10 years The 30-year bond is called the long bond.

Treasury Strips

Zero-coupon bond Created by stripping the coupons and principal from Treasury bonds and notes.

No default risk. Considered to be risk free. Exempt from state and local taxes. Sold regularly through a network of primary dealers. Traded regularly in the over-the-counter market.

7

Bonds issued by U.S. Government agencies that are backed by a pool of home mortgages. Self-amortizing bonds. (mostly monthly payments) Maturities up to 30 years. Prepayment risk.

Municipal bonds

Maturities from one month to 40 years. Usually exempt from federal, state, and local taxes. Generally two types: Revenue bonds General Obligation bonds Riskier than U.S. Government bonds.

8

Corporate Bonds

Bonds vs. Debentures Fixed-rate versus floating-rate bonds. Investment-grade vs. Below investment-grade bonds. Additional features:

call provisions convertible bonds puttable bonds

In case of default, different classes of bonds have different claim priority on the assets of a corporation. Secured Bonds (Asset-Backed)

Secured by real property. Ownership of the property reverts to the bondholders upon default.

Debentures

Same priority as general creditors. Have priority over stockholders, but subordinate to secured debt.

10

Bond Ratings

Moodys Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca C D S&P AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC CC C Quality of Issue Highest quality. Very small risk of default. High quality. Small risk of default. High-Medium quality. Strong attributes, but potentially vulnerable. Medium quality. Currently adequate, but potentially unreliable. Some speculative element. Long-run prospects questionable. Able to pay currently, but at risk of default in the future. Poor quality. Clear danger of default. High speculative quality. May be in default. Lowest rated. Poor prospects of repayment. In default.

11

Debt Instrument Treasury securities Municipal securities Corporate and foreign bonds Consumer Credit Mortgages Corporate equities 2006 Q2 4759.6 2305.7 8705.3 2327.4 12757.7 18684.5

12

B F R m i T N

= Market price of the Bond of bond = Face value = Annual percentage rate = compounding period (annual m = 1, semiannual m = 2,) = Effective periodic interest rate; i=R/m = Maturity (in years) = Number of compounding periods; N = T*m Two cash flows to purchaser of bond: -B at time 0 F at time T What is the price of a bond? Use present value formula:

B! F

1 i
N

13

An Example

Value a 5 year, U.S. Treasury strip with face value of $1,000. The APR is R=7.5% with annual compounding? What about quarterly compounding?

What is the APR on a U.S. Treasury strip that pays $1,000 in exactly 7 years and is currently selling for $591.11 under annual compounding? Semi-annual compounding?

14

Zero Coupon Bonds

face value of F=$1,000 APR of R=10%, compounded annually. We obtain the following table for increases and decreases of the interest rate by 1%:

Bond prices move up if interest rates drop, decrease if interest rates rise

15

$1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Bond prices are inversely related to IR Longer term bonds are more sensitive to IR changes than short term bonds The lower the IR, the more sensitive the price.

16

Zero Coupon Bonds

We would like to measure the interest rate sensitivity of a bond or a portfolio of bonds. How much do bond prices change if interest rates change by a small amount? Why is this important? Use Dollar value of a one basis point decrease (DV01): Basis point (bp): 1/100 of one percentage point =0.01%=0.0001 Calculate DV01: Method 1: Difference of moving one basis point down: DV01= B(R-0.01%)-B(R). Method 2: Difference of moving 1/2bp down minus 1/2pb up: DV01=B(R-0.005%) -B(R+0.005%). Method 3: Use calculus: xB DV 01 ! v 0.0001 xR

17

Interest Rate 9.990% 9.995% 10.000% 10.005% Method 1 Method 2 Method 3 Bond 1 1-Year $909.1736 $909.1322 $909.0909 $909.0496 $0.082652 $0.082645 $0.082645 Bond 2 Bond 3 2-Year 10-Year $826.5966 $385.8940 $826.5214 $385.7186 $826.4463 $385.5433 $826.3712 $385.3681 $0.150283 $0.350669 $0.150263 $0.350494 $0.150263 $0.350494

Method 3:

1 xB $1,000 v 0.0001 ! T v 0.0001 ! T * $0.10 * xR 1.10T 1 1.10 T 1

18

10-Year $1,200.00 $1,000.00 $800.00 $600.00 $400.00 $200.00 $0.00 Interest Rate

DV01 estimates the change in the Price-Interest rate curve using a linear approximation. higher slope implies greater sensitivity

19

Example 1: Amortization Bonds

T=2 m=2 C=$2,000 c = C/m = $2,000/2 = $1,000 R=10% i = R/m = 10%/2 = 5%

Brute force discounting Similar to another security we already know how to value? Replication

20

Example 1: Amortization Bonds

Buy Coupon Bond Buy 6-Month Zero Buy 1-Year Zero Buy 1.5-Year Zero Buy 2-Year Zero Portfolio

0 1 2 3 4 -$3,545.95 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 -$952.38 -$907.03 -$863.84 -$822.70 -$3,545.95

21

Reconsider amortization bond; suppose bond trades at $3,500 (as opposed to computed price of $3,545.95)

Can we make a profit without any risk?

What is the strategy? What is the profit?

22

Reconsider amortization bond; suppose bond trades at $3,500 (as opposed to computed price of $3,545.95) Can make risk less profit Buy low: buy amortization bond Sell high: Sell portfolio of zero coupon bonds

0 -$3,500.00 $952.38 $907.03 $863.84 $822.70 $3,545.95 $45.95 Time Period 1 2 3 4 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 -$1,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$1,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$1,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$1,000.00 -$1,000.00 -$1,000.00 -$1,000.00 -$1,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Buy Coupon Bond Sell 6-Month Zero Sell 1-Year Zero Sell 1.5-Year Zero Sell 2-Year Zero Portfolio Net Cash Flow

23

Example 2: Straight Bonds

What is the market price of a U.S. Treasury bond that has a coupon rate of 9%, a face value of $1,000 and matures exactly 10 years from today if the interest rate is 10% compounded semiannually? 6 45 12 45 18 45 24 ... 45 120 1045 Months

24

What is the market price of a bond that has an annual coupon C, face value F and matures exactly T years from today if the required rate of return is R, with m-periodic compounding? Coupon payment is: c = C/m Effective periodic interest rate is: i = R/m number of periods N = Tm 1 c 2 c 3 c 4 ... c N c+F

B ! ?Annuity A ?ZeroA 1 c ! 1 i i
N 1 F N 1 i

25

So far we have valued bonds by using a given interest rate, then discounted all payments to the bond. Prices are usually given from trade prices

need to infer interest rate that has been used

Definition: The yield to maturity is that interest rate that equates the present discounted value of all future payments to bondholders to the market price: Algebraic:

c F 1 1 B! yield / m yield / m
N yield / m
N 1 1

26

Yield to Maturity

A Graphical Interpretation

$2,500.00 $2,000.00 $1,500.00 $1,000.00 $500.00 $0.00 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24%

Consider a U.S. Treasury bond that has a coupon rate of 10%, a face value of $1,000 and matures exactly 10 years from now. Market price of $1,500, implies a yield of 3.91% (semi-annual compounding); for B=$1,000 we obviously find R=10%.

27

Coupon Bonds

Implication for price sensitivity

Consider purchasing the US Treasury bond discussed earlier (10 year, 9% coupon, $1,000 face)

Suppose immediately thereafter interest rates fall to 8%, compounded semiannually. Suppose immediately thereafter interest rate rises to 12% compounded semiannually. Suppose the interest rate equals 9%, compounded semiannually.

28

c 1 F B ! 1 N i i
i
N 1 1

29

A bond sells at par only if its interest rate equals the coupon rate

A bond sells at a premium if its coupon rate is above the interest rate.

A bond sells at a discount if its coupon rate is below the interest rate.

30

Consider two bonds with 10% annual coupons with maturities of 5 years and 10 years. The APR is 8% What are the responses to a .01% (1bp) interest rate change?

Yield 7.995% 8.000% 8.005% DV01

5-Year Bond

$ Change % Change 10-Year Bond $ Change % Change $0.21019 0.0195% $1,134.57 $0.36585 0.0323% $1,134.20 -$0.21013 -0.0195% $1,133.84 -$0.36569 -0.0322% $0.42032 $0.73154

Does the sensitivity of a coupon bond always increase with the term to maturity?

31

$2,500.00 5-Year Bond $2,000.00

Price (P)

10-Year Bond

$1,500.00 $1,000.00 $500.00 $0.00 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24%

Interest Rate (R)

Longer term bonds are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than shorter term bonds, in general.

32

Consider the following two bonds: Both have a maturity of 5 years Both have yield of 8% First has 6% coupon, other has 10% coupon, compounded annually. Then, what are the price sensitivities of these bonds, measured by DV01 as for zero coupon bonds?

Yield 7.995% 8.000% 8.005% DV01 6%-Bond $920.33 $920.15 $919.96 $0.3782 ($0.1891) 0.0411% $0.4203 $ Change $0.1891 % change 10%-Bond $1,080.06 $1,079.85 $1,079.64 ($0.2101) 0.0389% $ Change $0.2102 % change

Why do we get different answers for two bonds with the same yield and same maturity?

33

Zero coupon bonds have well-defined relationship between maturity and interest rate sensitivity: Coupon bonds can have different sensitivities for the same maturity

DV01 now depends on maturity and coupon

Duration

34

Duration

Duration is a weighted average term to maturity where the weights are relative size of the contemporaneous cash flow.

PV (c ) PV (c ) PV(c ) N T PV(F) 1 T 2 . T Duration ! T 1 2 N N B B B B

Duration is a unitless number that quantifies the percentage change in a bonds price for a 1 percentage change in the interest rate. xB

xB 1 R B Duration ! ! xR xR B 1 R

35

Duration (cont.)

The duration of a bond is less than its time to maturity (except for zero coupon bonds). The duration of the bond decreases the greater the coupon rate. This is because more weight (present value weight) is being given to the coupon payments. As market interest rate increases, the duration of the bond decreases. This is a direct result of discounting. Discounting at a higher rate means lower weight on payments in the far future. Hence, the weighting of the cash flows will be more heavily placed on the early cash flows -- decreasing the duration. Modified Duration = Duration / (1+yield)

36

U.S. Treasuries, May 20th 2007.

Bills

3-Month 6-Month MATURITY DISCOUNT/YIELD DATE 08/16/2007 4.72 / 4.84 0.01 / .010 13:41 11/15/2007 4.78 / 4.98 0.01 / .015 13:41 DISCOUNT/YIELD CHANGE TIME

Notes/Bonds

2-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year COUPON DATE 4.500 4.500 4.500 4.500 4.750 CURRENT PRICE/YIELD PRICE/YIELD CHANGE 04/30/2009 99-1214 / 4.84 -0-02 / .03514:08 05/15/2010 99-0812 / 4.77 -0-0312 / .040 14:06 04/30/2012 98-2812 / 4.75 -0-06 / .04314:07 05/15/2017 97-15 / 4.82 -0-0912 / .038 14:07 02/15/2037 96-17+ / 4.97 -0-17 / .03514:07 MATURITY TIME

37

Spot Rates

A spot rate is a rate agreed upon today, for a loan that is to be made today

r1=5% indicates that the current rate for a one-year loan is 5%. r2=6% indicates that the current rate for a two-year loan is 6%. Etc.

The term structure of interest rates is the series of spot rates r1, r2, r3,

We can build using STRIPS or coupon bond yields. Explanations of the term structure.

38

An Example

Yield 6.00 5.75

5.00

Maturity

39

40

41

42

43

44

Summary

Bonds can be valued by discounting their future cash flows Bond prices change inversely with yield Price response of bond to interest rates depends on term to maturity.

Works well for zero-coupon bond, but not for coupon bonds

Measure interest rate sensitivity using DV01 and duration. The term structure implies terms for future borrowing:

Forward rates Compare with expected future spot rates

45

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005Q1

3681.0 1457.2

3385.1 1480.9

3379.5 1603.6

3637.0 1763.1

4033.1 1898.2

4395.0 2028.0

4559.7 2098.9

2067.7

2230.3

2578.8

2711.0

2869.3

2947.4

2954.0

Consumer Credit

1553.1

1731.3

1870.7

1954.4

2047.0

2140.7

2117.1

Mortgages

6174.6

6727.9

7399.0

8218.2

9215.7

10405.2

10642.1

For comparison, the total market capitalization of NYSE firms is approximately 12.6 trillion as of April/2005.

46

U.S. Treasuries, October 12th 2006.

Bills

MATURITY DISCOUNT/YIELD DISCOUNT/YIELD DATE CHANGE 3-Month 6-Month 01/11/2007 04/12/2007 4.86 / 4.99 4.88 / 5.07 0.01 / .010 0.00 / .000

Notes/Bonds

COUPON 2-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year 4.625 4.875 4.500 4.875 4.500 MATURITY DATE 09/30/2008 08/15/2009 09/30/2011 08/15/2016 02/15/2036 CURRENT PRICE/YIELD 99-22+ / 4.79 100-13+ / 4.72 99-05 / 4.69 101-03 / 4.73 94-07+ / 4.87 PRICE/YIELD CHANGE 0-01 0-03 0-06 / -.029 / -.025 / -.014 0-02+ / -.030 0-05 / -.020

47

Example 1: Amortization Bonds

Consider Amortization Bond T=2 m=2 C=$2,000 c = C/m = $2,000/2 = $1,000 R=10% i = R/m = 10%/2 = 5% Compare with a portfolio of zero coupon bonds:

0 -$3,545.95 -$952.38 -$907.03 -$863.84 -$822.70 -$3,545.95 Time Period 1 2 3 4 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00

48

Buy Coupon Bond Buy 6-Month Zero Buy 1-Year Zero Buy 1.5-Year Zero Buy 2-Year Zero Portfolio

Duration

The logical way to measure sensitivity of the bond price to changes in interest rates is to take the derivative of the price B with respect to effective rate i:

N xB n 1 ! n c i
N F (1 i ) N 1 1 xi n !1

We adjust the derivative by dividing by minus the bond price and the number of periods per year m, and multiply by one plus the effective rate. The measure obtained is often called Macaulay Duration.

Duration !

1 R / m
xB ! 1 i
xB

B xR Bm xi

49

Duration (cont.)

If we replace n/m with Tn -- which will be the time (in years) until the nth cash flow, the formula is:

(1 i ) xB 1 N n N Duration ! ! Tn c i
TN F i
1 1 m B xi B n !1

Duration is a weighted average term to maturity where the cash flows are in terms of their present value. We can rewrite the above equation in a simpler format:

50

Find the current market price of a STRIP that matures in 5 years and has a face value of $100. Assume the APR is 7.5% with annual compounding.

51

Zero Coupons

One and half years from today, you want to buy a new car that requires a down payment of $5,000. How much do you have to save today assuming Bank A is offering a nominal interest rate of 3.2% with quarterly compounding?

Bank B is advertising a special rate 3.5% with semiannual compounding. Should you switch your account to bank B?

52

Coupon Bonds

You are buying a new home and you can only afford monthly payments of $2000. The current APR is 7.9%. How large of a loan can you afford if the term is 20 years? 30 years?

53

YTM Examples

Example: Find the yield to maturity on a self-amortizing bond that matures in 1 year, makes semiannual payments of $1000 and is selling for $1,876. Mathematically:

1 yield / m
1 B ! av yield / m

N

F 1 yield / m N

Beyond 5 compound periods, there is no analytic solution for coupon bonds (i.e. must rely on numerical analysis)

54

Yield to maturity is simply the internal rate of return with a different name. As such, this measure experiences the same problems when used for comparing investments. Example (from Brealey & Myers) Consider 2 bonds, both with $1000 face value, annual coupon payments and maturing in 5 years. Bond A: 5% coupon; 8.78% yield; market price = $852.11 Bond B: 10% coupon; 8.62% yield; market price = $1,054.29 Is bond A a better buy than bond B? That is, has the market erred in pricing these two bonds at different yields?

55

The discrepancy lies with the timing of cash flows. Increasing interest rate Bond A

Period Interest Rate Cash Flow Present Value 1 0.05 $50.00 $47.62 2 0.06 $50.00 $44.50 3 0.07 $50.00 $40.81 4 0.08 $50.00 $36.75 5 0.09 $1,050.00 $682.43 Total $1,250.00 $852.11 Yield 8.78%

Bond B Cash Flow Present Value $100.00 $95.24 $100.00 $89.00 $100.00 $81.63 $100.00 $73.50 $1,100.00 $714.92 $1,500.00 $1,054.30 8.62%

Bond A Bond B Period Interest Rate Cash Flow Present Value Cash Flow Present Value 1 0.09 $50.00 $45.87 $100.00 $91.74 2 0.08 $50.00 $42.87 $100.00 $85.73 3 0.07 $50.00 $40.81 $100.00 $81.63 4 0.06 $50.00 $39.60 $100.00 $79.21 5 0.05 $1,050.00 $822.70 $1,100.00 $861.88 Total $1,250.00 $991.86 $1,500.00 $1,200.19 Yield 5.19% 5.33%

56

Grinblatt & Titman

I own a $1,000, 10 year zero coupon bond with 8% yield compounded semiannually. How can I perfectly hedge this position with a short position in a 5-year zero with yield to maturity of 8% (semiannual compounding)

57

Yield Curve

Yield Curve for US Treasuries Source: Bloomberg.com (October 22, 2003) 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% Yield 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0 0.5 2 3 Bond Maturity 5 10 30

58

Money is of value because of its ability to purchase goods. Measure price changes by inflation defined as the percent change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI New CPIOld T! CPIOld Adjust the return for our investment by the rate of inflation. The adjusted rate is called the real rate.

1 R CPIOld 1 rr ! ! R
1 CPI New 1 T

59

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