BFWACG(00)31

Broadband Fixed Wireless Access

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Contents

Objectives of phase 1 Progress of industry consultation Key findings Next steps

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Phase One Study Objectives

The objective of the first phase of the study has been to assess whether there is likely to be a market for 40GHz. This has been carried out through:
consultation with operators, vendors and other interested

parties
estimating potential revenues at a high level for both the

business and residential markets

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Contents

Objectives of phase 1 Progress of industry consultation Key findings Next steps

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40GHz Interview Programme

Status of interviews as at 9 June
Status Considering response No response 6 0 2 3 1 2 10 5

Number of Respondent type questionnaires sent Operator 25 Vendor 16 Industry (incl. IEE, DTI etc) 8 Total 49

Received response 7 7 2 16

Declined 12 4 3 19

survey covers detailed questions on the target markets and services,

competing technologies and market shares, costs and network architectures

c. 50 organisations contacted

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Contents

Objectives of phase 1 Progress of industry consultation Key findings Next steps

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Key points from questionnaires 1

Homeworkers are considered a target market by half of respondents Networks will be rolled out to urban and suburban areas, plus some network rolled out to larger rural towns Operators appear to prefer regional licences to national. There is no consensus from the vendors 40GHz is considered to be a complement to 28GHz - only one operator said the two were substitutes. Two operators commented that the 2 technologies were both complements and substitutes The majority of respondents considered backhaul should be permitted using 40GHz There is little information about network costs available, from either operators or vendors. Only one vendor provided cost information by network equipment item

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Key points from questionnaires 2

The majority of respondents considered broadband Internet services would be a key revenue stream for both business and residential. There was less certainty on what the other key revenue services would be Operators consider broadcast revenues will important. Fewer vendors envisage broadcast as a key revenue stream. One vendor did not consider broadcast over BFWA to be worth while There is little consensus on whether business or residential services will be of more importance to the 40GHz market or timing of rollout

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Summary results - key revenue streams

Vendor responses Target markets Broadband Internet Telephony Broadcast/VOD Other (ASP, VPN) LAN access Business 5 1 0 3 1 Residential 4 1 2 0 1 Target markets Operator responses

Voice Data Broadband Internet Telephony Broadcast/VoD Interactive Home Shopping Other (ASP, VPN)

Business 1 3 6 1 0 0 3

Residential 1 3 4 0 4 1 0

Both the vendors and operators considered broadband Internet to be the most likely key revenue stream Telephony revenue was considered more likely than broadcast services. It should be noted that all the vendors stated that broadcast services would be offered by 40GHz Operators expect interactive shopping will be a further key revenue stream not foreseen by the vendors The operators stated that business data services will also be a key revenue stream for 40GHz services

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40 GHz in the business and residential markets

Share of business and residential services
Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3 Vendor 1 Business Residential 80% 20% 33% 67% 20% 80% 90% 10%

Most respondents considered the business and residential markets separately Only four respondents provide an answer to the percentage split between business and residential for the overall market. These are shown in the table above The splits between the business and residential markets differ substantially

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Advantages of BFWA over other broadcast technologies

Advantage of BFWA over other broadcast technologies Capacity Cost Better Same Better Same DST 7 0 2 1 Cable 3 2 2 2 Terrestrial 9 0 2 2
Speed of rollout Better Same 3 0 11 0 5 0 Service quality Better Same 6 4 0 5 2 4

40GHz BFWA is considered to have advantage over the competing technologies in certain areas Compared to Digital Satellite (DST), 40GHz offers more capacity and a better service quality Cable can offer either a greater or similar capacity to BFWA, but is bettered in speed of rollout BFWA is considered to offer better capacity and a slightly better service rollout than its terrestrial competitors

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Advantages of BFWA over other telecoms technologies

Advantage of BFWA over other telecoms technologies Capacity Cost Better Same Better Same DSL 7 1 3 2 Cable 4 0 7 1 Fibre 1 0 9 0

Speed of rollout Better Same 7 0 11 0 12 0

Service quality Better Same 3 4 2 4 0 5

BFWA exceeds DSL in terms of both capacity and speed of rollout

Cable for telephony is considered to be more expensive and slower to roll out than BFWA
Fibre is considered to be the most expensive and slowest competitive access technology to roll out

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Service launch

Timing of service launch Business 1Q 2001 2Q 2001 3Q 2001 4Q 2001 1 1 1 1 Residential 1

There is little consensus with regard to the timing of the service launch This may reflect considerations such as:
the availability of equipment the speed of rollout timing of the licensing

1Q 2002
2Q 2002 3Q 2002 4Q 2002 1Q 2003 2Q 2003

1
1

1 1

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Initial conclusions

there is interest in the market no respondent suggested delaying the licensing the 40GHz market appears to be broader than 28GHz with both business and residential segments and telecoms and broadcast services Internet is expected to be a key revenue driver by most respondents and broadcast revenues also expected to be important But the overall service composition appears uncertain there is still uncertainty about timing, equipment costs and when economies of scale will be achieved

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Contents

Objectives of phase 1 Progress of industry consultation Key findings Next steps

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Next steps

Detailed market assessment required; KPMG to:

develop models (market, costs, economic) populate models generate market estimates
Thereafter proceed as for 28GHz

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