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but it actually represents a new approach in which our adversaries leverage commercially available technologies to create a broad range of highly capable threats Improvised Everything
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Spike Pit
- Constructed from native materials and available explosives - At the height of fighting (1965-1970), 11% of US Army troop deaths and 17% of wounds were caused by booby traps
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USA, 1995
Tim McVeigh blows off the front of the Murrah federal building in Oklahoma city using racing fuel and fertilizer
Improvised Everything
Improvised Everything:
The Emerging Threats of an Improvised Army, Air Force, Navy and Intelligence
Through leveraging commercially available technologies, our adversaries are increasingly able to develop a range of sophisticated, low cost, low barrier-to-entry military capabilities. These capabilities can mimic functions traditionally performed by Army, Navy, and Air Force, and intelligence services This concept we call improvised everything Technology developments driving forward this trend of improvised capability include: Telecommunications technologies that facilitate group comms & C2 - Internet, cell phones, sat phones, etc. Proliferating GPS technologies Global transportation and shipping Expansion in knowledge through the Internet
Improvised Everything
Improvised Everything
Improvised Everything
Storming of the Bastille - Mobs seemed to appear from nowhere - Word of mouth spread in wine shops, taverns, crowds, coffee houses, and food markets - Agitators capitalized on events, like rise in bread prices - Oral communications meant French government had little intelligence on when and where mobs would appear
- Word
spread through word of mouth/riders - British turned away militia at Lexington Common and at Concord. - On British trip back to Boston, however, they were set upon by militia and simply farmers with guns firing from ambush positions, and then redeploying further down. - Colonists inflicted 273 casualties on an expeditionary force of 700
4F
Improvised Everything
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Hezbollah UAVs similar to this one have penetrated Israeli air defenses
Vehicle launch
Remote control
Source: Eugene Miasnikov, Media Reports of Terrorist Attempts to Employ UAVs
Hand Launch
Capability: RC Aircraft have flown across the Atlantic in 1998 and 2002
Improvised Everything
Improvised Navy
The capability here is using the seas to project power and counter US power. Counter-Navy: Attacks on the USS Cole and a number of other vessels (see facer).
USS Cole
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Improvised Navy
Strike from the Sea: Container threat using shipping containers to transport individuals or WMD 16,000 containers arrive daily In 2001, a terrorist was captured in Italy inside a shipping container. A trained airplane mechanic, he was traveling from Egypt to Canada with a laptop, a sat phone, and fake airport ID.* US authorities believe Kenya and Tanzania embassy bombing explosives came by container.*
*Source: On the Waterfront, 60 Minutes, August 3, 2003
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Improvised Navy
Strike from the Sea: Ship-borne missile threat potential for launch of short and intermediate range missiles from freighters
Strike from the Sea: Use of scuba divers to infiltrate US, attack vessels, etc. In WWII, Japanese used suicide divers and human torpedoes in asymmetric naval warfare.
Improvised Submarines: Carribean drug smugglers have attempted to use semi-submersibles to elude US interdiction
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Improvised Navy
20 Shipping Container
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71 miles
International Space Station Space Shuttles Navigation satellites, hamsats Space starts here at 100 kilometers NASA awards astronaut status for flights above 50 miles
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US Ranger with field expedient breaching charge made fro C-4, flex cuffs, electrical tape, and steel fence posts Supermarine found a way around a ponderous acquisition system Field Expedient Camouflage of Military Vehicles in snow & orchard
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Observations
Advanced commercially available technologies mean that our adversaries can create credible threats in a number of capability areas. Army, Air Force, Navy, Intel/Counterintel, WMD, and Training capabilities can all be created using this approach. Because many COTS technologies in electronics, software and other fields leverage commercial R&D, these threats will become greater in the future. Of course, we can and should leverage this advanced technology as well.
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Recommendations
In the new world of Improvised Everything: Leverage COTS technology where feasible Focus on developing assets that are highly flexible
In the future, threats may not always be clearly identifiable In many cases, we need to focus on developing capabilities to counter a broad range of threats, rather than specific point solutions This is a shift in mindset more than a technological challenge
Repurposing: Reuse existing systems Improvisation-friendly design: Focus on developing assets that are highly flexible
In the future, threats will not always be clearly identifiable In many cases, we need to focus on developing capabilities to counter a broad range of threats, rather than specific point solutions.
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