Energy for Sustainability

Randolph & Masters, 2008

Chapters 2:
Energy Sources & Sustainability
 Energy for Sustainability
 Sustainability:
 patterns of economic, environmental, and social
progress that meet the needs of the present day
without reducing the capacity to meet future
needs.
 Sustainable energy
 patterns of energy production and use that can
support society’s present and future needs with
least life-cycle economic, environmental, and
social costs.
 Criteria for Sustainable Energy
 A broad range of considerations: Sustainable energy goes beyond
short-term economic effects to consider environmental, social, security,
and long-term economic implications of energy choices.
 The future: Sustainable energy by definition aims to sustain the
availability of energy to meet the needs of future generations. To be
sustainable, our actions and choices should neither preclude options nor
place undo economic and environmental burdens on those who follow us.
 Renewability or abundance of the energy resource for long term
reliability
 Life-cycle…
 …economic benefits and costs, including cost-effectiveness and
national and local economy effects
 …environmental benefits and costs, including local, regional and
global effects
 …social benefits and costs, including effects on human health,
communities, equity, and the disadvantaged
 …security benefits and costs, including energy, environmental, and
national effects
 Uncertainties of life-cycle benefits and costs
Geologic Limits of Fossil Fuels
 The Peak Oil Debate
 U.S. Oil Depletion and Dependency
 Natural Gas and Coal
Hubbert’s Peak: a non-renewable resource
will rise to a peak and then decline
U.S. Production Peak followed 11
years after Peak in Reserves
 Reserves
 Quantity of a non-renewable resource that is
known and economically recoverable with
today’s technology and at today’s prices
Remaining Reserves
& Ultimate Recoverable (entire box = Q∞)
World Oil Discovery Trends:
Indicator of pending decline

26.5 bbl (2006)

The End of Cheap Oil

Source: The Economist

 U.S. EIA Estimate of Global Oil Peak based on USGS mean ultimate recovery
(sharp peak
Annual postpones
Production withpeak but would
2 Percent be fatal
Annual to the
Growth & economy)
Decline
40
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery

Ultimate Recovery 2016

35
Probability BBls
-------------------- ---------
30 Low (95 %) 2,248
Billion Barrels per Year

Mean (expected value) 3,003

High (5 %) 3,896
25 2% Growth
& Decline
High Prices Can
20
Affect Demand
4.1% Decline
1979-1983
15
History
7.8% Growth
Mean 1963-1973
10

0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.
Location of Current Reserves

Oil
sands
Environmental Limits of Fossil Fuels
 Global Climate Change
 Urban and Regional Air Pollution
 Other environmental impacts
Global Climate Change
 Strong Scientific Consensus
 Lag time between emissions and effects
 Monitored atmospheric warming showing
strong evidence of change
 Experiencing effects:
 Extreme weather events
 Polar region melting
Global Warming: Annual Mean Global Temperature, 1880-2006:
Since 1880, 14 of warmest years occurred in past 18 years
 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:
Already 15% depletion in area, 40% in thickness
Increase in Atmospheric CO2, 1958-2004
2007: 387 ppm
Delay Time in Effects of Higher CO2
 Response to Global Warming
 Adapting to climate change: Get used to it!
 Mitigating effects of climate change:
 Reduce GHG emissions through technology,
planning, and policy: all about CO2 and energy
 Policy directives:
 Kyoto protocol
 European Union & other countries
 U.S. states & cities
 U.S. federal this year?
Current Congressional Climate Change Bills

Pew Center for Global Climate Change, 2007

Energy &
Urban Air
Pollution

U.S. Air
Pollution
Emissions
down since
1970
But still non-attainment of NAAQS

Ozone Non-attainment
And more severe Air Pollution in
Global Cities
Air pollutant concentrations compared to
WHO standards
Opportunities & Limitations for
Non-Fossil Energy
 Nuclear Power
 Energy efficiency
 Renewable Energy
Nuclear Power is stagnant
U.S. Nuclear capacity and generation
MIT Study on Future of Nuclear Power
 Costs are key factor: private investors are not
willing to make risks without large government
backing
 Safety in the age of terrorism
 Proliferation of radioactive materials and
weapons
 Radioactive Wastes must be stored and
monitored for longer than we can imagine
 Energy Efficiency & Conservation
Energy intensity = energy consumed
$GDP

Energy conversion efficiency = useful output energy

input energy required

Energy functional efficiency = functions provided

useful energy consumed

Energy conservation = behavioral changes to save energy by

cutting back on the functions energy provides or on unneeded
energy
 $700 Billion in Savings since 1973:
1/3 from building efficiency, 1/3 vehicle efficiency, 1/3 structural change in
economy
Energy Consumption in the United States 1949 - 2005

200

175 $ 1.7
Trillion
Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005
150

125
If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per year
Quads

$ 1.0
100 Trillion

New Physical Supply = 25 Q

75

Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1% per year)

50

25

0
1953

1959

1965

1971

1975

1981

1987

1993

1999

2005
1951

1957

1963

1969
1949

1955

1961

1967

1973

1977
1979

1983
1985

1989
1991

1995
1997

2001
2003
Art Rosenfeld
Renewable Energy
 Wind Power:
 60 GW by early 2006
 94 GW by early 2007
 Photovoltaic Power:
 6 GW by early 2006
 10.5 GW by early 2007
 Bioethanol Fuel:
 13.5 billion gallons by early 2006
 Three energy sources with the fastest
percentage growth rates
World Wind Power
Global Wind Capacity
Solar Photovoltaics
(slides from D. Kammen, “The Rise of Renewable Energy” Scientific
American, Sept 2006)
Global PV Capacity
U.S. Bioethanol Production
Global Biofuels Production