Floods : The Awesome Power

Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D – NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms

Laboratory
How Is A Flood Defined?

Webster’s Dictionary
Etymology: Middle English, from Old English flOd; akin to Old High German fluot flood, Old English flOwan to flow

1 a : A rising and overflowing of a body of water especially onto normally dry land; also : a condition of overflowing
<rivers in flood> b capitalized : a flood described in the Bible as covering the earth in the time of Noah
2 : The flowing in of the tide
3 : An overwhelming quantity or volume; also : a state of abundant flow or volume <a debate in full flood>

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002

Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9

Any high flow, overflow, or inundation by water which causes or threatens damage.

How Is A Flash Flood Defined?

Webster’s Dictionary
A local flood of great volume and short duration generally resulting from heavy rainfall in the immediate vicinity

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002

Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9
A flood which occurs within six hours or less of the causative event. In some parts of the Nation, the actual time
threshold for an event to be considered a flash flood may be less than six hours.

How Can I Decide if it is a Flood or a Flash Flood?

Duration of Time from Precipitation Event(s) to onset of flooding
Common Flash Flood Producers- Heavy Localized Rainfall, Dam or Levee Failure, Sudden Release of Water
held by an Ice Jam or Debris Flow

Common Flood Producers- Regional Excessive Rainfall, Mainstem Seasonal River System Flooding
Floods- An International Perspective
International Events
Windstorms (Includes Tornadoes and Hurricanes)

50 Percent of 650 Registered Events

96 Percent of Insured Loss for 2004

“Fab Four” consisting of Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne were the “costliest combination of
storms in history.”

Economic Losses of 60 Billion with 30 Billion carried by Insurance Industry

Jeanne was responsible for record rainfall in Haiti and Dominican Republic where 2,000 people
were killed in floods and torrents of mud

Ivan was responsible for 11 billion in insured losses

Japan was hit by a record 10 tropical cyclones from June-October

Typhoons Chaba, Songda, and Tokage produced damage in excess of 14 billion with 7 billion
dollars carried by the insurance industry

November- Tropical Storm Winnie produced torrential rains over the Phillipines with 750 people killed
in flood waters and landslides
Floods and Flash Floods

One Quarter of all Natural Events (150)

January- February- Brazil Experienced its worst flood catastrophe in 15

years with 160 people dead

May- Haiti and Dominican Republic 2000 people died due to flood waters
and mudslides

June –August Monsoon Floods in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

Bangladesh 2/3 of the country was under water for most of the time

2200 people drowned and 5 billion in economic loss

June-September China River Floods

Hundreds of thousands of buildings destroyed

1,000 people drowned and economic losses of 8 billion dollars
 Storm Related Fatalities 1975-2004

225

200

175

150
N um ber of Fatalities

125

100

75

50

25

0
1978

1984
1975

1976

1977

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004
Year

Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane

2004 Fatality Summary - 82 Flood , 34 Tornado, 34 Hurricane, 31 Lightning, 27 Cold, 28 Winter, 6 Heat
 United States
Flood Fatalities and Economic Impacts
 Percent of Total Storm Related Hazard Fatalities 1975-2004

70

60

50
P ercent of T otal

40

30

20

10

0
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4
Year

Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane

30 Year Average (1975-2004) Flood = 107, Lightning = 64, Tornado = 54, Hurricane = 15

10 Year Average (1995-2004) Flood = 88, Lightning = 49, Tornado = 57, Hurricane = 21

Flood Fatality Information from NWS Hydrologic Information Center Other Hazard Fatality Information from NWS Summary of Natural Hazard
Statistics
 Storm Data 1995-2004 Hazards Loss

20000

18000

16000

14000
Dollars of Loss (Millions)

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year

Cumulative of Other Winter TS/Hurricanes Marine Flood Total Extreme Temperatures Convection

With Caveats on Flood Data Economic Tabulations as outlined in

Pielke, Jr., R.A., M.W. Downton, and J.Z. Barnard Miller, 2002: Flood Damage in the United States, 1926-2000: A
Reanalysis of National Weather Service Estimates. Boulder, CO: UCAR.
 Calendar Loss Dollars
Year Paid

1978 $147,719,253

1979 $483,281,219

1980 $230,414,295

1981 $127,118,031

1982 $198,295,820

1983 $439,454,937

1984 $254,642,874

1985 $368,216,285

1986 $126,388,098

1987 $105,422,538

1988 $51,022,523

1989 $661,668,435

1990 $167,919,559

1991 $353,682,166

1992 $710,247,980

1993 $659,092,451

1994 $411,079,605

1995 $1,295,481,512

1996 $828,040,721

1997 $519,504,541

1998 $885,998,681

1999 $754,823,272

2000 $251,502,332

2001 $1,276,439,589

2002 $432,518,918

2003 $759,785,550

National Flood Insurance Program – FEMA Web Page 2004 $1,207,212,377

 Types of Flash Floods/Floods
Flash Floods
Intense “Quick-Burst” Rainfall
Ice Jam/Debris Flows
Dam Failures

Landfalling Tropical Systems

Floods (Prolonged Regional River System Flooding)

Rainfall – Intensity, Duration, Frequency (Antecedent

Conditions)
Time of Day and Season (Outdoor Activities)
Flash Flood Significant Events

June 14, 1990 – Shadyside, Ohio (Evening)

3-5 Inches Of Rain In Less Than 2 Hours Fell On Saturated Soils

Most Deadly and Destructive Flash Flood since 1980

15-20 Foot Wall of Water

26 People Killed- 2 Bodies Recovered 30 Miles Downstream At he

Hannibal Locks and Dam on the Ohio River

80 Homes Destroyed, 250 Damaged with 6-8 Million Dollars in Damage

July 31, 1976 – Big Thompson Canyon Flood, Colorado (Evening)

8 Inches of Rainfall in One Hour

139 People with 30 Million Dollars of Damage

 Ice Jams (From US Corps of Engineers Data and Web Pages)
The rates of water level rise can vary from feet per minute to feet per hour during ice jam flooding. In some instances,
communities have many hours of lead time between the time an ice jam forms and the start of flooding. In other cases,
the lead time is a little as one hour.

For example, in March 1992, an ice jam developed at 7:00 a.m. in Montpelier, VT. By 8:00 a.m. the downtown area was
flooded (Figure 2-3). During the next 11 hours, the business district was covered with an average of 1.2 to 1.5 m (4 to 5
ft) of water. The event occurred so quickly that there was not sufficient time to warn residents so they could protect their
goods. Even after water levels dropped, damage related to the flooding continued as cold temperatures caused freezeup
of wet objects. Damages of less than one day were estimated at $5 million (FEMA 1992b).

Ice Jam Database

Israel River, Lancaster, NH US Army, ERDC, CRREL-Ice
Engineering Group
72 Lyme Road
Hanover, NH 03755

Phone: 603-646-4187
Fax: 603-646-4477
E-mail: kwhite@crrel.usace.army.mil
Wednesday, March 11, 1992

6:57A A large ice jam on the Winooski River breaks loose about the Pioneer Street Bridge and travels through
Montpelier. Ice jams just below the Bailey Avenue Bridge and dams the river.

7:05A Filled with rain and snowmelt, the Winooski begins to overflow its banks along State Street and the North
branch begins backing up onto Elm Street.

7:15A Water surges dramatically into low-lying areas behind Main and State Streets

7:23A Radio stations are notified of a flood emergency as first warnings are issued.

7:45A Icy flood waters hit the steam heating boiler at Business on Main Street and the boiler explodes, shattering the
glass storefront and destroying the basement.

7:56A Two to three feet of water is reported in front of Days Inn on State Street where an estimated 100 people are
stranded. Flood waters pout onto Main Street, stalling cars and making the road impassable. Backed-up
water from the swollen North Branch flows upstream on Elm Street.

8:09A Evacuations begin of hundreds of stranded residents, workers and state employees on Main, State and Elm
Street. Some wade to safety, while others are taken out by boat or by fire engines and dump trucks.

8:30A Gov. Howard Dean declares a state of emergency in the capital and closes state offices. The National Guard is
called in to assist, and state police, game wardens and other public safety crews begin arriving to help in
the disaster.

8:46A A Red Cross emergency shelter is set up at the gymnasium at Vermont College.

9:00A Human chains of volunteers work successfully in frigid waters to save historic documents stored in the basement
of the Pavilion Building. On Main Street, similar efforts rescue about 18,000 children's books from the
basement of Kellogg-Hubbard Library and thousands of videotapes in the basement of the Savoy
Theater.

10:07A Power crews shut off electricity in downtown Montpelier because of high fire and explosion hazards from
leaking fuel oil and propane. Many telephone lines are out. About 200 buildings in the downtown area
are flooded.

3:00P Backhoes and a crane move into place and begin dislodging the ice jam below Bailey Avenue Bridge.

4:57P After getting the ice flowing, a second jam occurs, sending a surge of water back up into Montpelier to
cause the worst flooding of the day.

5:10P The ice jam is knocked loose again, and begins moving downstream.

5:17P Huge ice chunks grinding downriver lift and twist half the trestle railroad bridge near Bailey Avenue off its
foundation, leaving it perpendicular to the rest of the bridge and pointing downstream.

5:31P The last ice clears the Bailey Avenue Bridge, and flood waters rapidly drain from downtown.

6:13P Frigid weather and blowing snow descend as downtown Montpelier is cordoned off and a curfew is set. The city
remains closed until noon, Saturday, March 14, as an army of workers, volunteers & municipal crews
pump basements, remove more than 650 dump truck loads of debris and repair damage.
 Dam Breaks

June 1, 1889 Johnstown, Pennsylvania

20 Million Tons of Water Released

Official City Records list 2,207 dead but witnesses claim more

March 12, 1928 – St Francisquito Canyon, California

William Mulholland's great St. Francis Dam broke at three minutes before midnight on March 12, 1928,
sending a 180-foot-high wall of water crashing down San Francisquito Canyon and claiming approximately
470 lives by the time the floodwaters reached the Pacific Ocean at Ventura.

The piano keyboard in the foreground of this photograph is an eerie reminder of the families that were
caught unawares in the middle of that fateful night. The flood was the second-worst disaster in California
history, second only to the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906

Its waters swept through the Santa Clara Valley toward the Pacific
Ocean, about 54 miles away. 65 miles of valley was devastated
before the water finally made its way into the ocean between Oxnard
and Ventura. At its peak the wall of water was said to be 78 feet
high; by the time it hit Santa Paula, 42 miles south of the dam, the
water was estimated to be 25 feet deep. Almost everything in its path
was destroyed: livestock, structures, railways, bridges, livestock, and
orchards. By the time it was over, parts of Ventura County lay
under 70 feet of mud and debris. Over 500 people were killed
and damage estimates topped $20 million. ((www.USC.EDU)

www.scvhistory.com
November 1977 at 1:30 AM- Kelly Barnes Dam (Rock Crib) Toccoa, Georgia Dam Failure
40 People Died (Almost 50 percent In 1899 Original dam constructed of interlocking sections of timber
Children) or concrete, forming cells which are filled with earth or broken rock.
Rappaport, E. Loss of Life In The United States Associated With Recent Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society. Vol 81, No. 9, September 2000.
Year Month Event Cause NOAA NFIP # NFIP Amount NFIP Fatalities
Storm Data Paid Paid Average (Storm
Total Loss Losses Paid Data)
Loss
2004 September Hurricane Ivan LandfallingTropical 14 Billion 28,053 1,407,641,752 50,178 57
System
2004 September Hurricane Frances LandfallingTropical 9 Billion 6,552 188,747,694 28,808 48
System
2004 August Hurricane Charley LandfallingTropical 15 Billion 3,082 58,843,652 19,093 34
System (Est)
2003 September Hurricane Isabel LandfallingTropical 5 Billion 19,569 460,975,889 23,556 55
System
2001 June Tropical Storm LandfallingTropical 5.1 Billion 30,291 1,095,419,259 36,163 43
Allison System
1999 September Hurricane Floyd LandfallingTropical 6.5 Billion 18,612 439,100,271 23,592 77
System
1998 September Hurricane LandfallingTropical 6.5 Billion 8,832 149,384,694 16,914 16
Georges System
1998 August Hurricane Bonnie LandfallingTropical 1.1 Billion 2,492 22,125,055 8,878 3
System
October-November 1998 Heavy Rains (Texas)

Severe Flooding from 2 Heavy Rain Events

31 Deaths (NCDC Storm Data)

CDC Web Page 29 Deaths with 22 from vehicles driven into high water

Approximately 1.0 (1.1 adj 2002) Billion In Damage

Number of Paid FEMA Losses: 4,678

Total FEMA Claims Paid: 76,257,393 (16,301 per claim)
http://floodsafety.com/media/pdfs/texas/October98.pdf
Northern Plains Flooding –April/May 1997

NCDC Storm Data – Approximately 3.7 (4.1 adjusted to 2002) Billion in damage/costs

NCDC Storm Data – 11 deaths

FEMA NFIP Number of Paid Losses =7,272

FEMA NFIP Total Losses Paid = 158,401,726 Dollars ($21,782 per claim)

The important factors that set the stage for potential significant flooding of the Red River and its tributaries during April 1997
included greatly enhanced snowfall during the winter and a substantial buildup of river ice throughout the northern half of the
Red River. These conditions resulted from a series of major cold-air outbreaks and winter storms from September 1996 to
April 1997. During this period more than 200% of normal snowfall was observed over most of North Dakota, western
Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, with 125%-200% of normal snow covering the remainder of the upper Midwest,
the northern Plains, Montana and most of Wyoming

This highly unfavorable March-April 1997 thaw in the Red River

Basin can be put into perspective by comparing it with the very
favorable or "ideal" thaw of 1994, a year in which there was
only minor flooding despite record or near-record snow fall at
many locations during October 1993-February 1994. The 1994
thaw featured four periods of substantial basin-wide warming
during March, along with significant refreezing at night. These
conditions produced a much more uniform melt of snow and
river ice throughout the basin, and resulted in a substantial
reduction of the winter snowpack prior to the onset of the major
April warming.

The floods were then directly initiated by a highly abnormal

thaw of this snowpack and river ice.
 Floods – Not Only Nature’s Instruments of Change

Past Policy Decisions and How These Decisions Will Be Viewed As We Tckle
Water Management Issues and Impacts in the 21st Century
 Floods As Policy Drivers
FLOODS ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI: AN HISTORICAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Southern Region Technical Attachment 98-9

Trotter, P. , G. Alan Johnson, Robert Ricks, David R. Smith NWSFO, New Orleans/Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Donnel Woods, WSO/COE, Vicksburg, Mississippi

The 1927 flood left a disastrous impact upon the entire 1,250,000 mile2 river drainage. The unprecedented rainfall began over the whole basin in late
summer 1926, and didn't abate until the summer of 1927. The flooding began at Memphis in the fall of 1926 and it was late August of 1927 before the last
of the flood waters flowed into the Gulf below New Orleans. The levee system was decimated with over 120 crevasses (Fig. 1) and 165 million acres were
inundated. There were 246 fatalities and over 600 thousand people were made homeless. The total damage was estimated at $230 million.

John M. Barry in his book Rising Tide has eloquently outlined the social and economic impact of that natural disaster upon the nation. As Barry points out,
a major portion of the 600 thousand people made homeless was black tenant farmers which made up the labor force of the agriculture-based Delta.
Those refugees were not allowed to leave and were forced to work and live on the levees that year to provide damage control. Up to that time, flood relief
and river management was largely driven by economics rather than humane concern for the citizens.

Relations between diverse racial and economic groups were needlessly strained by the lack of planning and flood management procedures. Fearing that
a flood in New Orleans would ruin the economic structure and investment stature of that city, bankers and commodities brokers convinced the governor
to open the levee at Caernarvon 14 miles downstream. The destruction of the levee and the resulting flood inundated the two lower parishes of Louisiana
displacing thousands of people and destroying the trapping, farming, and fishing industries for the following several years. Given the crevasses upstream
from New Orleans, the necessity of dynamiting the levee was questionable.

As a result of the devastation, the Flood Control Act of 1928 was passed. Levee and reservoir maintenance and management was placed in the hands of
the Army Corps of Engineers (COE), with cooperation among levee boards, river commissions and emergency management officials.

Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How It Changed America John M. Barry
NOAA Historical Photo Collection
FEMA/NOAA Aerial Photos
How Do I Get The Information?
Outlooks

Product Identifier Source Description

This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavy precipitation
will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-hour or greater lead
time. It includes:
___ESF___
Flood Potential Outlook WFO • Area affected
(example) • Time frames
• Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions
• Information on projected watches and warnings

This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavy precipitation
will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-hour or greater lead
time. It includes:
Excessive Rain
NMCGPH94E NCEP • Area affected
Outlook • Time frames
• Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions
• Information on projected watches and warning

Watches

Product Identifier Source Description

This is used to inform cooperating agencies and the public about the threat
of flooding. It covers precipitation, snow/ice melt, and dam break
conditions. It Includes:
• Area affected
___FFA___
Flood Watch WFO • Time frames
(example) • Conditions
• Extent of hazardous conditions possible
• Potential severity
• Call-to-action statement
Statements

Product Identifier Source Description

This product is issued to update and expand the information in a

Flood Warning (FLW, see below). The Flood Statement
___FLS___ may be used in lieu of a warning if flooding is forecast,
Flood Statement WFO
(example) imminent, or existing and presents no threat to life or
property. The statement is used also to terminate a Flood
Warning.

This product provides daily river stage forecasts and/or

information about ice jams and ice movement that does not
River Statement ___RVS___ WFO warrant a Flood Warning or a Flood Statement. It is used
also to communicate conditions such as low flows,
chemical spills, etc.

This product can contain numeric and/or narrative information on

River Ice Statement ___RVI___ WFO
river ice conditions.

Advisories/Warnings

Product Identifier Source Description

This product normally specifies crest information and is issued for

___FLW___
Flood Warning WFO specific communities or areas along rivers where flooding has
(example)
been forecast, is imminent, or is in progress.
Discussions

Product Identifier Source Description

This product summarizes the current hydrometeorological situation, general

trends of the RFC's hydrologic forecasts, and flood potential for the
entire RFC area. The types of conditions monitored include:
• Areas where Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) indicate
significant potential for rainfall causing runoff
• Rivers that are already above flood stage
• Areas where soil moisture is above normal due to recent excessive
Hydrometeorological ___HMD___
RFCs rainfall
Discussion (example) • Areas covered by a significant snowpack that could readily melt in
changing meteorological conditions such as a rain-on-snow event or a
heat wave
• Areas where frozen ground could generate dangerous runoff with
moderate rainfall
• Areas where ice jam breakups could potentially produce backwater
flooding or dam-break-like flood conditions
Fatality Trends and Multi-Agency Education Programs
Nearly half of all flash flood fatalities are automobile related.

Water weighs 62.4 lbs. per cubic foot and typically flows downstream at 6 to 12 mph.

When a vehicle stalls in water, the water's momentum is transferred to the car. For each foot water
rises, 500 lbs. of lateral force are applied to the car.

But the biggest factor is buoyancy. For each foot that water rises up the side of the car, the car
displaces 1500 lbs. of water. In effect, the car weighs 1500 lbs. less for each foot water rises.

Two feet of water will carry away most automobiles.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/tadd/
 Questions?
Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D
Research Hydrometeorologist
NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Avenue
Norman, OK 73026
Office Phone (405) 366-0536
E-Mail: Suzanne.Van.Cooten@noaa.gov