LECTURE BY FAHAD SHAH RASHDI

 Nuclear Capabilities and Doctrines of

 China
 India
 Pakistan
 Politics
Nuclear Capabilities
Nuclear Doctrines
CHINESE CAPABILITIES

260 warheads
50-60 ICBMs
20 metric tons of HEU
2 tons plutonium
CHINA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE:

No First Use

Lean and Effective Strategic Nuclear Force
Maintaining Second Strike Capability
Self Defence and Retaliation
Strong Supporter of Non-Proliferation
INDIA’S CAPABILITIES

 90-110 warheads
 2.4 tons HEU
 0.54 tons Plutonium
 Nuclear Triad
 Ballistic Missile Defence System
 ICBM Agni V: 5000km
INDIAN NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

 Credible Minimum Deterrence

 No First Use
 No use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states.
 In the event of major attack against India or Indian forces anywhere, by biological or
chemical weapons, India will retain the option of retaliating with nuclear weapons.
 A continuance of controls on export of nuclear and missile related material and
technologies
 Observance of the moratorium on nuclear tests.
PAKISTAN’S CAPABILITIES

140 warheads
3 tons HEU
0.15 Plutonium
Nuclear Triad: Babur III
Tactical Nuclear Weapon: Nasr
Shaheen III: to reach Nicobar and Andaman Islands
PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

 Minimum Credible Deterrence

 First Use
 Support to international arms control regimes which are non-
discriminatory
 Moratorium on nuclear tests
 Restraint and Responsibility
 Full Spectrum Deterrence
PAKISTAN INDIA NUCLEAR COMPETITION

Cold Start Doctrine vs tactical nuclear weapons

Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)
Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG)
US-Indo Civil Nuclear Deal
Minimum Credible Deterrence
SECOND STRIKE CAPABILITY

Babur III
450km range
Submarine-Launched Cruise Missile
K-4
3000-3500km
Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile
K-15 Sagarika
WEAPONS MODERNIZATION

Pakistan:
Babur-III Submarine Launched
Ababeel Missile: MIRV
MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM

India’s Ballistic Missile Defence Quest

Two tiered system
1. Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) missile
2. Advanced Air Defence (AAD) missile
Pakistan
Ababeel ballistic missile
 Multiple Independently-Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV)
IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN DUE TO INDIA’S BMD SYSTEM

Uncertainty with Credible Minimum Deterrence

Undermined Pakistan’s first strike option
Boosted India’s second strike capability
Need of strategic depth
Reinforces the numerical strength of Indian Army
Affects the future of Kashmir
CONDITIONS OF DESTABILIZATION
CONDITIONS OF STABILIZATION
KASHMIR: A NUCLEAR FLASHPOINT
OTHER ISSUES THAT MAKE THE REGION NUCLEARIZED

Cross-border Terrorism
Territorial Disputes
Growing Nuclear Arsenals
Domestic Pressures
Nuclear safety and security
PAKISTAN NUCLEAR THRESHOLD

Territorial
Military
Economic
Political
NUCLEAR SUPPLIER GROUP

 Overview:
 48 nations; formed in 1975
 Membership Requirement:
 NPT membership
 Unanimous vote
NSG POLITICS

India’s bid
What’s in it for India
Western Countries’ bias
Pakistan’s application
Why Pakistan follows India’s suit
China’s role
FMCT

Why Pakistan is not signing FMCT?

Benefits to India
 More fissile material
 Strategic advantage
 Breeder Reactor
 Civil and Military Nuclear Plants
SITUATION IN THE SOUTH ASIA DUE TO NUCLEAR
COMPETITION

Arms Race
Stability/Instability
Underdevelopment