By: Amit Akshay(6)

Anand kumar(7)
Ankit Singh(8)
Ankit Soni(9)
Anuratn Purushottam(10)

m
 
  





Why we choose this topic?

þ § sourc s d
in conomics

ë




 

  





   

  



 




 

 





 

  
þ orld will b
acing S rious § sourc crisis in
th
utur  b tt r to pr par right
rom now.
þP rsonal Int r st.

 

A R
R is any physical or virtual ntity o
limit d

availability that n ds to b consum d to obtain a
b n
it
rom it





R
R

§at o
Consumption > §at o
§ g n ration

§esources Covered

þ 6il
þ at r
þ For st s
6
C§CH
 §6C 6
þ?h world can now
d a daily oil
habit o
n arly 80 million barr ls.
þIn th U.S. about two-thirds o
th
oil go s to mak transport
u ls.
þ?h synth tic
abrics in our
wardrob and th plastics in just
about v rything w touch start d
out as oil too.
þAs Dani l Y rgin writ s in his oil
history ?h Priz  w liv in "th Ag
o
Hydrocarbon Man."
6il Consumption

þ6il is ch ap.
þIn th Unit d Stat s a gallon o
p trol can b ch ap r than a bottl o
wat r.
þIt is too ch ap
or most p opl to both r cons rving.
þ?h U.S. r mains th king o
consum rs accounting
or a quart r o
th world's oil v n though it has just 5
p rc nt o
th population.
he  Crisis ŝ..
AGENDA FEB§UA§Y 11 2010 5:47 A.M. E?
?

 

 


As Europ 's l ad rs gath r in Bruss ls today th y hav only on
crisis in mind: th d bts that thr at n th stability o
th Europ an
Union. ?h y ar unlik ly to b in any mood to list n to warnings
about a di

r nt crisis that is looming and that could caus
massiv disruption.

A shortag o
oil could b a r al probl m
or th world within a

airly short p riod o
tim . It was un
ortunat
or th group which
chos to point this out y st rday that th y should hav chos n to
do so on th day th 6rganization o
P trol um Exporting
Countri s or 6PEC r port d that th

cts o
th
inancial
downturn had l d to a slight downgrad in its
or cast
or oil
consumption this y ar.

Against th gloomy conomic backdrop that Europ curr ntly ?
 

 
  
provid s sir n voic s shri king that a pot ntial n rgy crisis is 
 


  
immin nt and could b wors than th cr dit crunch ar liabl to b
dismiss d as scar mong rs.

S6U§CE
?HE NEX? C§ISIS: P§EPA§E F6§ PEAK 6IL
By PA?IENCE HEA?C§6F?
FEB§UA§Y 11 2010 5:47 A.M. E?
http://onlin .wsj.com/articl /SB10001424052748704140104575057260398292350.html?mod=wsj_shar _
ac booK
11
6il Prices o-dayŝ2010
What is ũPeak 6ilŪ?
P ak 6il is also call d

"Hubb rt's P ak"

ù Nam d
or th Sh ll g ologist
Dr. Marion King Hubb rt.
ù In 1956 Hubb rt accurat ly
pr dict d that US dom stic oil
production would p ak in 1970.

13
he Hubbert Curve
ecline in Supply

 


6il production in a giv n country t nds to go into d clin at about th hal
way point
b caus o

alling pr ssur in th und rground r s rvoirs and b caus oil compani s
usually discov r and xploit th larg st oil
i lds
irst.
6PC eception
P 6
SC§ 6
Buy rǯs S ll rǯs
Ch ap Easy to Extract 6il Mark t Mark t
Exp nsiv Ȃ Di

icult to Extract 6il
2010 2020 2030

O

 
6il Wars!
What does peak oil mean for our
societies?
þ6ur industrial soci ti s and our
inancial syst ms w r built
on th assumption o
continual growth
* Growth bas d on v r mor
  


 .
þ6il in particular is th most conv ni nt and multi-purpos d o

th s
u ls.
* 6il curr ntly accounts
or about 43% o
th world's total
u l
consumption and 95% o
global n rgy us d
or transportation.
* 6il and gas ar
dstocks
or plastics paints pharmac uticals

rtiliz rs l ctronic compon nts tyr s and much mor .
* 6il is so important that th p ak will hav vast implications
across th r alms o
war and g opolitics m dicin  cultur 
transport and trad  conomic stability and
ood production.
* Signi
icantly
or v ry on joul o

ood consum d around 10
joul s o

u l n rgy hav b n us d to produc it.

19
conomic mpact

h n oil production starts to d clin  th



 
 

Economic growth is larg ly d p nd nt upon a growing oil supply. ?h Int rnational En rgy Ag ncy has

or cast oil d mand to xpand at a rat o
1.3% annually ov r th p riod 2004-2030.




 many
or cast rs xp ct 
 
 


  
  m aning that th d
icit
b tw n th oil w want and th oil w g t will xpand by 3-5% a y ar. ithin 10-15 y ars o
th ons t o

d clin w could hav just hal
th oil supply that proj ctions say is r quir d 




 .

20
 

  
   

þ By = R R
R
 w þ By = R
 w m an

m an all th wat r wat r that has b n
availabl
or human us  tr at d and has b com
nam ly dom stic us  drinking wat r.
agricultur  industry.
    
  
 

 


 
  
   

 
 
  


! 
 
  
   
 
 


"!

#
! 
 
 
 
 
 



  

 #

?   
  

 
 
 






$
 
!
  
  

?


 %
 

˜ ˜     =   R = R

?        
W6§
 W§  S§
 6
Location Volum in million % o
?otal
cubic km
Land Ar a
Fr sh wat r Lak s 0.125 0.009
Salin lak s and inland s as 0.104 0.008
§iv rs 1.25 × 10-3 0.0001
Soil moistur 0.067 0.005
Ground wat r 8.3 0.61
Glaci rs and ic caps 29.2 2.14

?otal land ar wat r 37.0 2.8

Atmosph r 0.013 0.001
6c ans 1320 97.3

?otal world wat r 1360 100

?h arth has a
init supply o

r sh wat r stor d in aqui
rs sur
ac
wat rs and th atmosph r . Som tim s oc ans ar mistak n
or availabl
wat r. Statistics r v al that 97 p r c nt o
th total amount o
th wat r in
th arth is salt wat r and is thus o
no us to support human or animal li

( xcluding marin animals)
Exp rts warn d today that hal
o
th world's population could
ac a
s v r shortag to wat r by 2040 all du to climat chang .
þ Daily p r capita us o
wat r in r sid ntial ar as:
þ - 500 litr s in North Am rica and Japan
þ - 350 litr s in Europ
þ - 10-20 litr s in sub-Saharan A
rica

þ ?h orld H alth 6rganization says that v ry y ar mor than 3.4

million p opl di as a r sult o
wat r r lat d dis as s
þ Unit d Nations 4000 childr n di ach day as a r sult o
dis as s caus d
by ing stion o

ilthy wat r
þ Los ang l s basin can support 1 million p opl with its own wat r by
2020 its population will b 22 million
þ UN climat r port th Himalayan glaci rs that ar th sourc s o
Asia's
bigg st riv rs - Gang s Indus BrahmaputraYangtz  M kong Salw n
andY llow - could disapp ar by 2035 as t mp ratur s ris .
ranifestations of water
crises
þ Inad quat acc ss to sa
drinking wat r
or about 884
million p opl .
þ Inad quat acc ss to wat r
or sanitation and wast
disposal
or 2.5 billion p opl .
þ Groundwat r ov r dra
ting ( xc ssiv us ) l ading to
diminish d agricultural yi lds.
þ 6v rus and pollution o
wat r r sourc s harming
biodiv rsity.
þ § gional con
licts ov r scarc wat r r sourc s
som tim s r sulting in war
ar .
þ at r sits at th n xus o

ood s curity ducation
g nd r mpow rm nt and global dis as .
epleted aquifers ŝŝ.

eading to hunger
þ D pl t d aqui
rs l ads to cutback in harv st grain which
l ads to mor
ood shortag and thus a chain r action is
s t  l ading to in
lation  hung r .
þ In India monsoons ar so rratic and w mostly r ly on
m rcy o
rains which has l t to th in
lation in country in
r c nt tim s
þ
ood in
lation rat as a r cord 16.74 p r c nt in jun 2010
b caus o
low agricultur productivity .
s the whole world engulfed??
 Politics
þ 6
t n politics and war can play a rol in contamination and mass mov m nt o
p opl
incr asing th lik lihood o
wat r str ss
þ 6n such xampl is o
Zimbabw in 2008 -09
þ h r an pid mic occur d which r sult d in 8424 cas s o
th dis as and 4276 d aths
du to wat r dis as s (chol ra) .
 ƒimbabwe epidemic
þ šEpid mics do not just happ n. ?h y ar not random v nts. ?h y hav
histori s writ Barn tt and hit sid .
þ ?h tak ov r o
municipal wat r suppli s by th national gov rnm nt to
w ak n th opposition Mov m nt
or D mocratic Chang (MDC) and th
gov rnm ntǯs conomic mismanag m nt hav work d in tand m to
allow chol ra to
lourish.
It d monstrat s how in
ctious dis as outbr aks lik chol ra in
Zimbabw ar political cris s as much as pid miological on s .

þ A
t r pr sid nt §ob rt Mugab mbark d on a viol nt land r
orm

programm  xpropriating whit -own d comm rcial
arms in 2000 n w

arm own rs hav don littl to maintain th in
rastructur and
aciliti s
th y inh rit d wh n taking ov r
arms including wat r syst ms and
irrigation dams.
þ 6v r 50 p rc nt o
all wat r proj cts
ail and l ss than
iv
p rc nt o
proj cts ar visit d and
ar l ss than on p rc nt
hav any long r-t rm monitoring. (10)
þ Inv stm nt in sa
drinking wat r and sanitation contribut s
to conomic growth. For ach $1 inv st d th orld H alth
6rganization (H6) stimat s r turns o
$3 Ȃ $34 d p nding
on th r gion and t chnology.(14)
þ ast wat r r cycling § using wast wat r is an
obvious r spons to local wat r shortag s. But
r cycl d wast wat r can pos a thr at to public
h alth soil and wat r i
wast wat r is not
r us d car
ully
þ Mark ting th id a on a global
ront that saving
A?E§ is v rybody's busin ss no on should
blam or pass th ball
rom his court  so SAVE
A?E§ .
 è


 

 è

 

r Cov rs arth lik a gr n blank tǥ
r Produc innum rabl goodsǥ
r Provid s s v ral nvironm ntal s rvic sǥ
r 1/3rd o
th worldǯs land ar a is
or st d.
r Form r USS§ Ȃ 1/5th
Brazil Ȃ 1/7th
Canada Ȃ 6-7%
USA Ȃ 6-7%
  èè

Comm rcial Us s
r ?imb r r §ubb r
r Fir wood r Fib rs
r Pulp ood Ȃ r Lac
r Food it ms r Bamboo Can s
r Gum
r Fodd r
r § sins
r M dicin sǥ
r Non- dibl 6ils
 èè


Ecological Us s
r Production o
6xyg n
r § ducing o
Global arming
r ild Li
Habitat
r § gulation o
Hydrological Cycl
r Soil Cons rvation
r Pollution Mod rators
 

    è
è
è
  
r Incr as d Population * Incr as d r quir m nts.
r ?otal
or st ar a in 1900 Ȃ 7000 mha
1970 Ȃ 2890 mha
2009 Ȃ 1920 mha
r D
or station rat is l ss in t mp rat countri s
compar d to tropical countri s (40-50%).
   èè
  
r Shi
ting Cultivation
U 300 million p opl living as shi
ting cultivators.
U 0.5 million ha o

or sts cl ar d annually.
r Fu l § quir m nts
U Incr as in
u l wood r quir m nt
o 1945 Ȃ 65 million tons
o 2008 Ȃ 400-600 million tons
r §aw Mat rials
or Industrial Us
U wood
or making box s
urnitur  railway sl p rs plywoodǥ
U Pulp
or pap r industry.
r D v lopm nt Proj cts
U Hydro l ctric pow r proj cts Big dams §oads Miningǥ
r Growing Food N ds
U Cr ation o
agricultural land and s ttl m nts by cl aring
or sts.
r 6v rgrazing
ÿ
 

MR 

 R
 R   R
  R 

r




  è
è
  
r It thr at ns th xist nc o
many wild li

sp ci s du to d struction o
th ir natural
habitat.
r Biodiv rsity is lost and along with that g n tic
div rsity is rod d.
r Hydrological cycl g ts a

ct d th r by
in
lu ncing rain
alls.
r Probl ms o
soil rosion and loss o
soil
rtility
incr as s.
r In hilly ar as it o
t n l ads to landslid s.
r 
 è


r ?imb r Extraction
r Mining


r poor logging r sults in d grad d
or sts.

r soil rosion sp cially on slop s.
r s dim ntation o
irrigation syst ms.
r loss biodiv rsity.
r climatic chang s such as low r pr cipitation.
r n w logging roads p rmit shi
ting cultivators and

u l wood gath r rs to gain acc ss to logg d ar as.
r loss o
non-timb r products
þ pR 
 ! =R" 
R # $
%& "



þ R R R

R 
 R 
  R
  "
þ     
 '()((( R
$*%)*((&  R
 
R


 R
R"  R
þ    
þ +R
 R
$R  
 *,( " 
 R 


 
"
 R  R  R&
þ - R
 R
  "  R

 
= 
 conomic mplications
þ p
R
R  R.
   R. R
R R
 R  "

R R 
þ   R  =R 
 "/R  R
þ pR 
  0 - "
þ    R  =R 

 R=   


) " RR
R  R R

   R
RR

þ  R
R  R
  R R R
R
=  R
R  RR     

Ú
 Ú


 

  
 How do we manage an nergy
crisis?
§ acting to crisis
Short t rm
&'  & '

(
ù Building S rvic s
Pow r
at r
ast
ù ?ransport
Natural Gas!
Encourag p opl to us
ù trains & bus
ù bicycl s
ù Not cars

ù ? l commut
Int rn t
or work

47

onger erm lternatives?
* +,
 -  
(


(


(

ë
 #

  
)

á
 
á
 
 



 

  
6 6n lternative fuels
þ?h b st non p trol um sourc o

pow r is
* Hydro l ctricity!

þMost alt
u ls hav a n gativ

E§6I*
* 6il Shal s/K rog n
* Hydrog n
* Nucl ar Fission
* Nucl ar Fusion

þ*E§6I En rgy § turn on Inv stm nt


ehavioral changes are necessary



Ê


 
á
 
 
* -

51
ubai rodel: ever again!

Sourc : Hom (2009)

We cannot sustain the same model
 èinal Solution :6il
þ Global oil production is at or n ar a p ak
þ 


 
 


* Li
and soci ti s will chang
or v r:
€ our transport syst ms
€ how w produc
ood
€ 



 

Ü
 
   !
 
* Local gov rnm nt 






 
 i
w ar to hav any chanc
o
mitigating th conomic

cts o

p ak oil.
€ ?h continu d xpansion o
road
and air in
rastructur
€ 






* Food suppli s should b
   



€ In a world o

 

 

€
ood s curity will incr asingly
d p nd upon local supply.
Where are we today?

Bas d on cons nsus it is lik ly that global oil production will Ǯp akǯ and go into sustain d d clin
within th n xt
w y ars  






55
Solutions Water Crunch

þ Farming n ds to b don by using drip-sprinkl rs and

oth r micro-irrigation syst ms by changing cropping
patt rns and growing m thods to g t mor crop p r
drop and by adopting high-yi lding and arly-maturing
crop vari ti s. As it is don by ov r pumping right now .
þ  = R R
 R 1 #   R
  "


 = R R
 

1  = R = R  

 = R R
 " 1 

 "
 
 
# 
)  R  
RR  "  # 
 


RR
R .R 
  
þ =R  M  
þ ?h world n ds a Blu § volution to cons rv and manag

r shwat r suppli s in th
ac o
growing d mand
rom population
growth irrigat d agricultur  industri s and citi sȄjust as th
Gr n § volution trans
orm d agricultur in th 1960s. A Blu
§ volution will r quir coordinat d r spons s to probl ms at local
national and int rnational l v ls.
þ countri s can avoid th crisis i
appropriat polici s and strat gi s
ar
ormulat d and act d on soon. h th r wat r is us d
or
agricultur  industry or municipaliti s th r is much room
or
cons rvation and b tt r manag m nt
  I
v rybody do s not stay ignorant and tak littl st ps or solutions
to pr v nt d
or station
rom occurring in th
utur  th n ov rall w all
will hav a b tt r world to liv in. 

þ § duc wast
ul land us practic s

þ Improv alr ady d v lop d lands
þ Busin ss s and corporations hav to b mor awar o
th

cts that
d
or station caus s and th y hav to tak littl initiativ s to pr v nt it

rom incr asing
þ Gov rnm nts hav to mak citiz ns awar o
th issu
þ Each p rson can plant tr s onc in a whil to maintain th cosyst m
þ Groups can b
orm d to d cr as d
or station
þ ?h orld ildli
Fund (F) and Global For st atch Canada (GFC)
ar groups that hav alr ady b n
orm d to pr v nt d
or station
 mplication for managers
þ ?h Futur is o
cl an and sustainabl n rgy sourc s and as a
manag r long t rm goals should not b compromis d with short
t rm goals.
þ Corporations obs ss d with short t rm goals and t mporary pro
its
ar som tim s part o
th probl m. E.g.
a) Farm rs in K rala clos to th Coca-Cola plant which was only
op n b tw n 1999 and 2004 say th wat r tabl dropp d
drastically and a sludg containing toxic ch micals dump d by th
unit s p d into th ir soil making it in
rtil .
b) A r port commission d by th south rn stat o
K rala ord r d
Coca-Cola to pay 47 million dollars in comp nsation
or polluting
agricultural land and xtracting too much groundwat r at a bottling
plant.
þ ?h ra o
ch ap availabl oil i
ov r.

ast word ŝ

?h most
undam ntal chang n d d is in 


" #

?hank You