GROUND MOTION EQUATIONS

AND ATTENUATION COEFFICIENT

OF SOILS AND ROCK
GROUP 4:
BANIEL, Ma. Olivia
PO, Ma. Gleiza
SIMPLINA, Karren May
EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE
AND RETURN PERIOD
PO, MA. GLEIZA SANCHEZ
EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE AND RETURN PERIOD

- an estimate of the likelihood of an event

- associates the structural demand and capacity of constructed facility
- utilizes probabilistic analysis

Poisson model
- a continuous time, integer-value counting process with stationary independent
increments, this means that the number of events occurring in an interval of time
depends only on the length of interval and does not change in time.
- thus, each earthquake occurs independently of any other seismic event, and
cannot include fore and aftershocks.
Poisson Model

𝑁𝑡𝑟 𝑛 𝑒 −𝑁𝑡𝑟
𝑃 𝑚 > 𝑀, 𝑡𝑟 = (3.1)
𝑛!
where:
𝑃 = probability of having 𝑛 earthquakes
𝑚= magnitude greater than 𝑀
𝑡𝑟 = reference time period in a given area
𝑁= expected number of occurrences per unit time for that area
i.e. cumulative number of earthquakes greater than M
Recurrence relationships express the likelihood of earthquakes of a given size
occurring in the given source during a specified period of time, for example one
year. Therefore, the expected number of earthquakes N in equation (3.1) can be
estimated by statistical recurrence formulae. Gutenberg and Richter (1954)
developed the following frequency-magnitude relationship:

𝑙𝑛𝑁 = 𝑎 − 𝑏𝑀 (3.2)
where 𝑎 and 𝑏 are model constants that can be evaluated from seismological
observational data through least-square fit.

𝑎 = seismicity of the area

𝑏 = relative frequency of the earthquakes
𝑀 = local or Richter magnitude, usually an upper bound on
magnitude is placed, based on the characteristics of the
source and/or the maximum historical earthquake.
The recurrence model, as given in equation (3.2), is the simplest
mathematical formulation for describing earthquake recurrence.

However, it has been found that it may lead to mismatches between the
predicted time and observed values (e.g. Kramer, 1996). The predictive
model in equation (3.2) which represents a Gumbel extreme type 1
distribution, matches with observed data for different tectonic zones in
the range of intermediate magnitudes, e.g. 𝑀𝑠 = 6 to 7.5, but it over-
predicts the probability of occurrence at large magnitudes.

Consequently, more accurate models have been proposed (e.g.

Coppersmith and Youngs, 1990, among others).
By combining equations (3.1) and (3.2), the probability of earthquake
occurrence can be expressed in the form:

−𝑒 (𝑎−𝑏𝑀)𝑡𝑟
𝑃 𝑚 > 𝑀, 𝑡𝑟 =1 − 𝑒 (3.3)

The return period 𝑇𝑅 , defined as the average time between the occurrence of
earthquake with a magnitude 𝑚 greater than 𝑀, can be estimated as follows:

1 𝑡𝑟
𝑇𝑅 = = − (3.4.1)
𝑁 ln(1−𝑃)
or, using equation (3.3):

1
𝑇𝑅 = = 𝑒 (𝑏𝑀−𝑎) (3.4.2)
𝑁
The relationship between the return period 𝑇𝑅 , the lifetime of the
structure and the desired probability of the estimate being exceeded
𝑃 𝑚 > 𝑀, 𝑡𝑟 is plotted in Figure 3.2

For example,
𝑡𝑟 = 100 years
P of being exceeded = 60%
𝑇𝑅 = ?
𝑇𝑅 = 100 years
Variations of the peak horizontal acceleration with the annual
probability of being exceeded are also included for three percentiles, i.e
15th, 50th, and 85th.
Design earthquake loads are based on ground motion having a desired
probability of being exceeded during the lifetime of the facility, as
displayed in Table 2.1.

Seismic codes generally assume a lifetime of about 50 years for

ordinary buildings and the probability of being exceeded equals 10%.
Computing, the return period is about 475 years.
In the Philippine setting,

According to the data by PHILVOCS, for the West Valley Fault, four major earthquakes have been
determined to have taken place in the last 1,400 years. It has a recurrence interval/return period of
400-500 years. The last major earthquake originating from the fault was recorded in 1658 or 360
years ago.
This means that it may be time soon – perhaps in our lifetime, or that of our children – for another
major movement in the fault.