GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY AND

MIGRATION
June 17, 2017
Outline

 Global Demography
 Introduction
 Pre-Transition
 Transition: Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population
Growth
 Age-Transition
 Consequences of the Demographic Transition
Introduction

Trends
Implications
Causes of mortality, fertility declines
Longevity bound? Fertility decline bound?
Consequences of aging
Carrying capacity of the planet
Pre-Transition
 Malthusian checks: positive (famine and misery), preventive
check (postponement of marriage, vice), population growth
limited by economic growth
 Europe: high fertility with high mortality especially low age
mortality, limited evidence for the same elsewhere but even
then below biological limits
 Variations around the mean probably due to global climate
change
Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population
Growth
 Mortality Declines
 Began in Europe 1800, elsewhere 1900 accelerated post WWII
 Driven by improvements in public health, hygiene, improvements in
nutrition
 Famine mortality declines due to improved food storage and transport
 Mortality declines in high income countries continued due to improved
medicine addressing chronic and degenerative diseases
 Developing countries: historically rapid increases in life expectancy
Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population
Growth
 Fertility Declines
 Economic models point to factors that increase the opportunity cost
of children and reduce their benefits especially with women
 Reductions in benefits of children from external sources, market or
government reduce demand further
 Effect of contraceptive use controversial: European experience
without contraception
 Evidence points to a mortality decline before a fertility decline
Age Distribution
 Mortality declines leads to high young age dependency ratios
 Fertility declines leads to lower young age dependency and
bigger working age population, demographic bonus,
dependent on presence of jobs, capital
 Increasing longevity leads to increasing old age dependency
 Population aging due to lower fertility, increased old age
dependency without improvements in health; due to lower
mortality, more functional elderly population
Implications
 Increased global population
 Fewer children leads to more opportunities for other activities, higher
quality of children
 Mortality decline may lead to longer disabled years or longer disability
free years
 Fiscal implications for aging populations lead to an increasing burden on
the young or the taxpayer
 Migration will have modest effects
 Investment in developing countries won’t relieve fiscal pressures because
smaller economies
 Aging population problems addressable
Migration
 Outline:
 Definitions and Types
 Causes
 HistoricalTrends
 Migration and Development
 International Cooperation
 Settlement and Diversity
 Migration and the Nation State
Definitions and Types

 Internal vs international Migration

 Migration of frontiers

 Residency as a migrant vs tourists and business travellers

Definitions and Types
 Catergories:
 Temporary Labor Migrants
 Highly skilled and Business Migrants
 Irregular Migrants
 Refugees
 Asylum Seekers
 Forced Migration
 Family Members
 Return Migrants
Causes of Migration
 Increase in cross border flows with globalization: transnationalism
 Driven largely disparities in socio-economic levels between destination
and origin
 Enabling institutions are important: migrations systems, migration
industries
 Poverty and migration: migrants are predominantly middle income
Historical Trends
 Colonialism
 Inter-war reduction

 Post-world war

 Firstphase (1945-1973)to North America, Western Europe,

Oceania
 Second phase to new centers in South Europe, Gulf countries, Latin
America, and Asia
 Migrants remain a small proportion of world population

 However, concentration in few destination countries is the source of

contention
 Urbanization
Migration and Development
 Does migration assist or impede development?
 Brain Drain
 Benefits for destination country: flexible, lower cost labor
 Remittances
 Abuse of migrants
 Re-integration
Settlement and Diversity

¨ Migration and settlement
¤ Empirical
 regularity
¤ Granting of rights



¨ Isolation vs assimilation

¨ Reaction from destination populations
Migration and the Nation-State
 Border Control
 Crisis of Confidence in the Origin
 Lack of opportunities at home
 Lack of protection for temporary migrants

 Migrants and the national identity

 Migration is unlikely to dissipate
 Global structures must acknowledge this reality and evolve