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Probability

Engage
• The weather forecaster says that the
probability that it will rain today is 75%. Does
it mean that there is a great chance that it will
rain today?
Explore

0.75

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

0 1
Explain
• Probability is used to describe how likely or
unlikely it is that something will happen.
• Probability may be given in fraction, decimal,
or percent.
• The value of probability ranges from 0 to 1 (0
means the event is impossible to happen,
while 1 means the event is certain to happen)
Explain
• Probability will help us decide how often
something is likely to happen, but it will never
help you exactly when that event will happen
unless the probability is 0 (it will never
happen) or 1 (it will surely happen).
Explain
• The event is unlikely to happen when its
probability is closer to 0, like winning a jackpot
in a lottery where you only have a one in a
million chance of winning. The most likely to
happen an event is, the closer its probability
to 1.
Explain

Less probable More probable


than not than not

1
1 3
0 2 1
0.0 4 0.5 4 1.0
0.25 0.75
0% 50% 100%
25% 75%
impossible as likely certain
unlikely likely
as unlikely
Example
• Use impossible, most unlikely, as unlikely,
most likely, and certain to describe each of the
following statements.

a. It will snow tomorrow.


The climate of the Philippines is tropical, it is
impossible to snow.
Example
• Use impossible, most unlikely, as unlikely,
most likely, and certain to describe each of the
following statements.

b. The likelihood that 2 people in any group of


15 will have the same birthday is about 8%..
The probability is closer to zero (0%), then it is
most unlikely (but not impossible)
Example
• Use impossible, most unlikely, as unlikely,
most likely, and certain to describe each of the
following statements.

c. The forecaster says there is a 50% chance of


rain today.
The chance to rain is as likely as it is unlikely. It
does not mean that it will rain nor will not rain
today.
Example
• Use impossible, most unlikely, as unlikely,
most likely, and certain to describe each of the
following statements.

d. The sports’ analyst says that Manny Pacquiao


has 75% chance of winning his fight.
This means Pacquiao is likely to win fight. It does
not mean he will win the fight. So, if he does not
win, don’t say the analyst is wrong.
Example
• Use impossible, most unlikely, as unlikely,
most likely, and certain to describe each of the
following statements.

e. The sun will rise tomorrow.


It is certain that the sun will rise every day. So,
the probability of the sun rising is 100%
MORE EXAMPLES
Example 1
• Edward and Tim are playing a game. Edward
has just flipped a coin to determine who will
have first turn. What is the probability of the
coin landing on a head.

It is as likely as
unlikely to land as
head or tail
Example 2
• There are 1 yellow, 2 blue, and 2 gray cubes in
a box. Without looking, what is the likelihood
of picking a yellow cube out of the box?
Example 3
• Observe the spinner below. What is the
probability of the spinner landing on a planet
other than Jupiter?

Earth Saturn

Jupiter Mars
Example 4
• Look at the spinner at the below. Write and
describe the probability of landing on:
a. 1
b. 3 or 5 1 5

c. Even number
4 2
d. 7
3 6