0 calificaciones0% encontró este documento útil (0 votos)
37 vistas24 páginas
The document discusses the past and future growth of the Indian economy. It notes that India recently became the 6th largest economy, overtaking France, and is projected to become the 5th largest by 2019 and 3rd largest by 2027. The key drivers of India's economic growth are expected to be a growing middle class and consumer spending, which could make India the 3rd largest consumer market by 2030. Urbanization and technology/internet adoption are also discussed as factors that will fuel future consumption in India. Comparatively, while China currently has an advantage due to its large working population, its economy is expected to slow in coming decades as its population rapidly ages.
Descripción original:
India is 5th largest economy and 3rd largest consumer market and it's future till 2050
The document discusses the past and future growth of the Indian economy. It notes that India recently became the 6th largest economy, overtaking France, and is projected to become the 5th largest by 2019 and 3rd largest by 2027. The key drivers of India's economic growth are expected to be a growing middle class and consumer spending, which could make India the 3rd largest consumer market by 2030. Urbanization and technology/internet adoption are also discussed as factors that will fuel future consumption in India. Comparatively, while China currently has an advantage due to its large working population, its economy is expected to slow in coming decades as its population rapidly ages.
The document discusses the past and future growth of the Indian economy. It notes that India recently became the 6th largest economy, overtaking France, and is projected to become the 5th largest by 2019 and 3rd largest by 2027. The key drivers of India's economic growth are expected to be a growing middle class and consumer spending, which could make India the 3rd largest consumer market by 2030. Urbanization and technology/internet adoption are also discussed as factors that will fuel future consumption in India. Comparatively, while China currently has an advantage due to its large working population, its economy is expected to slow in coming decades as its population rapidly ages.
on India has 6th largest economy And 3rd largest consumer market :
Future of Indian Economy
By :Aslam Mehar (2017BBA007)
Jayant Bhandari (2017BBA012) India the 6thlargest economy • Indian economy recently became the sixth largest economy in the world in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) by overtaking France. • After suffering from transitory shock in the last two years due to reforms like demonetisation and Goods and Service Tax (GST), Indian economy is back on track. • However, the Indian economy slowly and steadily recovered and at the end of 2017, Indian economy’s GDP stood at $2957 trillion while French economy value was $2582 trillion • Gross Fixed Capital Formation in India has increased drastically in last decade from 2,875 billion rupees in 2009 to 11,575 billion rupees in 2019 Consider this: Just in the last decade, India has doubled the size of its economy outpacing that of France. While India's GDP has risen by an average 8.3 percent over the decade, that of France's actually declined by 0.01 percent. To add more perspective, in the past 10 years India's GDP grew by 116.3 percent (from $1.201 trillion in 2007 to $2.597 trillion in 2017) while France witnessed a 2.8 percent decline in GDP (from $2.657 trillion in 2007 to $2.583 trillion in 2017). Certainly, this tells us that India is gaining economic size consistently and is emerging as one of the powerhouses. IMF Report • Nominal GDP: $2.61 trillion , GDP (PPP): $9.45 trillion • India is the fastest-growing trillion-dollar economy in the world and the sixth-largest with a nominal GDP of $2.61 trillion. • India is poised to become the fifth-largest economy overtaking the United Kingdom by 2019 as per the IMF projection. • The country ranks third when GDP is compared in terms of purchasing power parity at $9.45 trillion. • India’s growth rate is expected to rise from 7.3% in 2018 and 7.5% in 2019 to 8% in 2020, as drags from the currency exchange initiative and the introduction of the goods and services tax fade according to IMF. • India’s post-independence journey began as an agrarian nation, however, over the years manufacturing and services sector have emerged strongly. • Today, its service sector is the fastest-growing sector in the world, contributing to more than 60% to its economy and accounting for 28% of employment. • Manufacturing remains as one of its crucial sectors and is being given due push via the governments' initiatives such as “Make in India”. • Although the contribution of its agricultural sector has declined to around 17%, it still is way higher in comparison to the western nations. • The economy’s strength lies in a limited dependence on exports, high saving rates, favorable demographics, and a rising middle class. India : Third Largest Consumer Market World Economic Forum(WEF) • According to the WEF, with an annual GDP growth rate of 7.5%, India is currently the world's sixth-largest economy. • As per the report, growth in income will transform India from a "bottom of the pyramid economy" to a middle class-led one. • By 2030, domestic private consumption, which accounts for 60 per cent of the country's GDP, is expected to develop into a USD 6-trillion growth opportunity. • The report stated that if realised, this would make India's consumer market the third-largest in the world, behind the US and China. • The future consumption growth is expected to come from rich and densely populated cities and the thousands of developed rural towns. • The report stated that India's top 40 cities will form a USD 1.5 trillion opportunity by 2030, many thousands of small urban towns will also drive an equally large spend in aggregate. • In parallel, it noted that there will be an Future Consumption in India Three major drivers will be the important pillars of the future of consumption in India :- • Income growth • Urbanization • Technology and innovation Income Growth Growth in income will transform India from a bottom- of-the-pyramid economy to a truly middle-class led one, with consumer spending growing from $1.5 trillion today to nearly $6 trillion by 2030. This will be driven by: – Middle-class expansion and emergence of a sizeable high-income segment: By 2030, India will add about 140 million middle-income and 21 million high-income households, overall nearly doubling the total share of these segments to 51%. – Transformation of the consumption profile: Upper middle- income households will drive 47% ($2.8 trillion) of total consumption, and high-income households will drive another 14% ($0.8 trillion), compared to 30% and 7% respectively today. – Breakthrough states: While India’s aggregate income and consumption will grow rapidly, 10 large “breakthrough” states will lead the way: Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu in the south; Delhi, Haryana and Punjab in the north; and Maharashtra and Gujarat in the west. – Poverty elimination becoming a reality: Income growth will have an even more positive aspect – India will lift nearly 25 million households out of poverty; less than 5% of households will lie below the poverty line by 2030, down from 15% today. Urbanisation While metros and emerging boom towns continue to drive economic growth, rural per capita consumption will grow faster than in urban areas mimicking consumption patterns of urban counterparts. This will be characterized by: – Dispersed urbanization and an urban-rural income continuum: By 2030, 40% of Indians will be urban residents. The top nine metros9 and 31 boom towns will be significantly richer than other cities. However, there will also be >5,000 small urban towns (50,000-100,000 persons each) and >50,000 developed rural towns (5,000-10,000 persons each) that already have very similar income profiles. – Growth of rural consumption and breakdown of the urban-rural paradigm: Rural per capita consumption will grow to 4.3 times by 2030, compared to 3.5 times in urban India. Technology and Innovation
Internet access will be democratized by 2030 with more than
1 billion Indians – rural and urban, old and young – on the internet, a truly remarkable achievement in terms of inclusion. The key enablers will be: – Mobile-first consumers: More than 80% of internet users in India primarily access the web through mobile phones, a figure expected to increase to more than 90% over the coming years. This will be a significantly different profile of connected consumers for businesses to target, compared to the US, the UK and even China, where nearly half of internet users today access the web through their desktops. – A “third wave” of telecom revolution: The first wave (2003- 2013) established widespread access to mobile phones and helped India reach more than 100 million mobile users. The second wave (2016-2018) saw massive growth in 4G and internet penetration, driven by steeply declining prices of data and handsets. The coming decade will be the third wave of democratization as voice-based user interaction, vernacular and video content and easier access to the internet will unlock a tremendous user base for consumption on digital platforms. – 1 billion diverse internet users: Access to the internet will extend to about 1.1 billion users in 2030. Nine out of 10 Indians over 15 years of age will be online by 2030. The profile of India’s connected consumers will be much more diverse than today – more vernacular (~80% versus 60% today), more rural (50% versus 40% today) and with older users (>35-year-old users to be 45% of users versus 25% today). Future of India–Direct Statements • The report by Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) said. If the global markets remain steady and political situation, then Indian economy will disposes Germany as the fourth-largest economy by the year 2022. India will emerge as the world’s third largest economy by 2027 , and India’s national income will be around $6.5-7 trillion, • Mr. Debroy NITI Ayog Member said according to Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) “If exchange rate remains what it is today then, by 2035-40, India will be $10 trillion economy. And if the exchange rate appreciates, then India will be a $10 trillion economy before 2035.” Future Of India (According to Current trend) As far as according to understand the mechanisms involved at this point, population dynamics have major economic impacts and these can be categorised under two main headings: • demographic processes affect the size of the working age population, and through this channel the level of trend economic growth – for better or worse - in one country after another • Demographic processes affect patterns of national saving and borrowing, and with these the directions and magnitudes of global capital flows Comparative Study between Economies of India And China • Short term is all about china because of its working age population (i.e. 63.5% of total population of china lies in the age group of 18-59 years ) • But China Will Be One Of The Most Rapidly Ageing Countries in the 2030s • By 2040, assuming current demographic trends continue, there will be 397 million Chinese over 65 - more than the total current population of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom combined. • It is during the 2020’s that China’s age wave will arrive in full force. • The elder share of China’s population seems set to rise steadily from 11 percent in 2004 to 15 percent in 2015 to 24 percent (forecasted) in 2030 and 28 percent in 2040. • Over the same period, China’s median age will climb from 32 to 47. • In India the whole demographic transition is much more balanced. • The increase in the 15-34 age-group population has been quite dramatic: – from 174.26 million (31.79 per cent) in 1970 – to 354.15 million (34.43 per cent) in 2000. • The youth segment of the population is projected to peak at 484.86 million in 2030. • Working Age population of India in 2050 will be 62.8 % approximate (forecasted ) References • https://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/india-becomes-sixth- largest-economy-in-the-world-overtakes-france-5256279/ • https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-likely- to-surpass-uk-in-the-worlds-largest-economy-rankings- pwc/articleshow/67609647.cms • https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/indian-economy-poised-to- pick-up-in-2019-says-imf/article26052046.ece • PwC report on “The World in 2050” (2017). • IMF report on “Indian Economy (2018) “