Climate Change impacts,

adaptation, and associated costs

for coastal risks in France

G. Le Cozannet1, N. Lenôtre1, M. Yates Michelin1, P. Nacass2, B. Colas3,

C. Perherin4, C. Peinturier5, C. Vanroye6, C. Hajji7, B. Poupat3,
C. Azzam8, J. Chemitte7, and F. Pons9

1
BRGM, 2 Météo-France, 3 MEEDDM/SGDD/SoES, 4 CETMEF, 5 MEEDDM/CGDD/SEEI,
6
DREAL/LR, 7 MRN, 8MEEDDM/DGPR/BRM, 9 CETE Méditerranée
Context: application of the French Climate Plan (2006)

Objective: initiate an evaluation of potential damages and possible mitigation strategies

to limit the cost of impacts

An interministerial working group, « Climate change impacts, adaptation, and

associated costs for coastal risks in France », was created to address this objective.

Within which, an oversight committee was:

• responsible for the methodological guidelines
• guaranteed the homogeneity of the assessment methods
and 7 sectoral groups were created, one of which is:

“Natural Risks, Insurance, and Adaptation to Climate Change” (RNACC)

led by the MEEDM/DGPR/SRNH (Ministry of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Seas/Directorate General
for Risk Prevention/Service des risques naturels et hydrauliques)

Sub working groups:

- Swelling and shrinking of clays
- Lanslides Estimate costs of damages caused
- Floods by coastal erosion and inundation,
- Coastal risks and identify what is specifically
caused by climate change
>2
RNACC Project: Coastal Risks

> Currently, 25% of the French coastline

is eroding

> Vulnerability to coastal inundation has

been highlighted by the impacts of
several severe storms:
• Lothar in 1999 and Xynthia in 2010 along the
Atlantic coast
• 1982, 1997, and 2003 storms on the Inundation during Xynthia, March 2010.
Source: Régis Duvigneau
Mediterranean coast

> Climate change impacts will exacerbate

existing coastal erosion and inundation
hazards in the 21st century (Nicholls et
al., 2007)

Damage to port structures (île de Ré, port de La

Flotte). Source: Pedreros et al. (2010)

>3
 Coastal Risks Methodology
Climate change
hypothesis
Current demographic
and economic statistics
Coastal inundation and in coastal areas
erosion hazards in 2100

Evaluation of potential impacts to people,

residences, and public and private assets in 2100

>4
Methodology applied in Languedoc-Roussillon
region in France
> 215 km of French
Mediterranean coastline
between the border with
Spain and the Rhône
Delta, characterized by:
• Hard rock cliffs with pocket
beaches in the southern
portion
• Sandy beaches separated Languedoc-Roussillon
by three rocky outcrops
• Coastal lagoons separated
from the Mediterranean Sea
by lidos, or narrow strips of
beach with low-lying dunes

>5
Evaluation of potential climate change impacts Climate change
hypothesis

> Potential climate change impacts

• Sea level rise
Source: Charlotte Grimbert
• Storm regime
• Storm surges
• Wave climate
• Precipitation

Le Havre, France, December 2007

La Faute-sur-Mer and Aguillon, France,

February 2010

>6
Evaluation of potential climate change impacts Climate change
hypothesis

> Potential climate change impacts

• Sea level rise increase in sea level rise (Meehl et al., 2007;
Rahmstorf, 2007; Grinsted et al., 2009; Ullman et
al., 2007; EUROSION, 2004; MICORE, 2009)

• Storm regimes regional climate models have not shown

• Storm surges ? significant changes (Déqué et al., 2003; Ullman,
• Wave climate 2008 ; Lionello et al., 2008; MICORE, 2009)

• Precipitation potential decrease in total precipitation

potential increase in number of days with more
than 10mm of precipitation (IMFREX, 2002)

>7
Evaluation of potential climate change impacts Climate change
hypothesis

> Potential climate change impacts

• Sea level rise increase in sea level rise (Meehl et al., 2007;
Rahmstorf, 2007; Grinsted et al., 2009; Ullman et
al., 2007; EUROSION, 2004; MICORE, 2009)

Scenario adopted :
• 1 m sea level rise in 2100
• other climate change impacts are unable to be quantified
and are not taken into account in this study

>8
Coastal erosion hazard zones Coastal inundation and
erosion hazards in 2100

> Current trends in Languedoc-Roussillon:

• Decrease in supply of large-grained sediments Erosion hypothesis:
• Increase in shoreline erosion partial opening of lidos
and erosion of sandy
coastline, estimated
> Future trends in Languedoc-Roussillon: with a 500m buffer zone
• Uncertain, but likely to show at least a continuation of current
landward of the current
trends
• Landward migration of lidos and breaching during storm events shoreline
(Paskoff, 2001)

Current situation

In 2100, with adequate sediment supplies

In 2100, with a depletion of sediment supplies

Photo from 2003, Messina (2004)
Paskoff, 2001
Coastal inundation hazard zones… Coastal inundation and
erosion hazards in 2100

TODAY
100-year return
10-year return period event
period event

In 2100 with 1 m of sea level rise

100-year return
10-year return period event
period event
Sea level
rise
Hazard Evolution Coastal inundation and
erosion hazards in 2100

Effect of
Reversibility Proposed estimation of the
Hazard climate Type Timescale
of effects impact zone
change

intra-annual
a buffer zone of 500 m inland
Erosion aggravation continuous to irreversible
of erodible coastal zones
multiannual

Permanent creation of a multiannual the zone from 0 to +1 m

continuous irreversible
submersion new hazard to decadal elevation

Temporary dis- a few hours the zone between +1 and +3

aggravation reversible
submersion continuous to a few days m elevation

Characteristics of hazards considered in this study,

adapted from Garcin et al. (2009)
Exposure of people and residences to Current demographic and
economic statistics in coastal areas
coastal hazards
4 zones affected by
coastal erosion and
Population density inundation hazards

500m-wide buffer zone:

exposed to erosion in 2100

Below 1m NGF:
exposed to permanent
inundation in 2100

Between +1m and +2m NGF:

exposed to temporary inundation by
storms with a 10-year return period

Reconstructed population density in the zones with an Between +2m and +3m NGF:
elevation of less than 5m above sea level in exposed to temporary inundation by
Languedoc-Roussillon (Source : CGDD – SOeS, IGN) storms with a 100-year return period
0%
Potential impacts to people and Evaluation of potential impacts to
people, residences, and public and

0%
residences in 2100 private assets in 2100

100%
0%
90%
0% Water en eau
Surfaces
Wetlands
Zones humides
80%
Open spaces
Espaces (with
avec peu de little
végétation vegetation)
0%
Low-lying
Milieux vegetation
à végétation arbustive et/ou herbacée
70%
Forests
Forêts
0% Prairies
Prairies and agricoles
et zones heterogeneous
hétérogènesagriculture
60% Permanent
Cultures agriculture
permanentes
0% Arable
Terres land
arables
50% Artificial
Espaces green
verts spaces
artificialisés, (non-agricultural)
non agricoles
0%
Industrial
Zones zones, décharges
indus., réseaux, landfills,et construction
chantiers
40% Urban
Zones zones
urbanisées

0%
30%

0%
20%
As the distance from the
0%
coast increases, the
10%
percentage of urban
0%
zones decreases
(i.e. population, residences, public
and private assets, etc.)

Distance from the shoreline Source : UE, SOeS, CORINE Land Cover 2000, Observatoire du littoral
Potential impacts to people and Evaluation of potential impacts to
people, residences, and public and

residences in 2100 (Résultats CGDD/SoeS) private assets in 2100

In 2100

Hazard Irreversible Temporary inundation Temporary inundation

permanent inundation caused by a 10-year return caused by a 100-year
or erosion hazard period storm return period storm

Population 80,000 people 20,00 - 60,000 people 20,000 people

Residences 140,000 residences 40,000 - 100,000 residences 20,000 - 40,000 residences

OR
Between +1m and Between +2m and
+2m NGF: +3m NGF:
500m-wide Below 1m NGF: exposed to temporary exposed to temporary
exposed to inundation by storms inundation by storms
buffer zone:
exposed to erosion in permanent with a 10-year return with a 100-year return
2100 inundation in 2100 period period
Potential impacts to public and private Current demographic and
economic statistics in coastal areas
assests in 2100
Distribution of public and private assets:
- Artisans, merchants, and service providers 53%
- Agricultural enterprises 17%
- Industries 16%
- Public establishments 14%
Potential impacts to public and private Evaluation of potential impacts to
people, residences, and public and

assests in 2100 (Résultats MRN) private assets in 2100

In 2100

Hazard Irreversible permanent Temporary inundation Temporary inundation

inundation or erosion caused by a 10-year caused by a 100-year
hazard return period storm return period storm

Total number of 3,000 – 9,000 6,000 – 12,000

10,000 establishments
establishments establishments establishments

Number of
8,000 - 25,000 16,000 – 33,000
employees 26,000 employees
employees employees
impacted

OR
Between +1m and Between +2m and
+2m NGF: +3m NGF:
500m-wide Below 1m NGF: exposed to temporary exposed to temporary
exposed to inundation by storms inundation by storms
buffer zone:
exposed to erosion in permanent with a 10-year return with a 100-year return
2100 inundation in 2100 period period
Associated costs
Examples of
Tangible Intangible
damages
Destruction of an economic asset
Loss of human life, or loss of a natural
Direct (e.g.. buildings, public transportation or
space
communication infrastructure, etc.)
Loss of use
Increase in the vulnerability of the
Indirect (e.g. losses due to non-use of property
population affected by a crisis
destroyed or damaged by a catastrophe) .

Estimations of annual and Cost of potential Cost of direct, Cost of direct and
cumulative costs of coastal damages to tangible damages indirect, tangible
risks caused by climate change residences (estimate) damages (estimate)

Coastal erosion and permanent

inundation 150 Million € / year 300 Million € / year 600 Million € / year
(only destroyed buildings)

Coastal erosion and permanent

inundation 350 Million € / year 700 Million € / year 1400 Million € / year
(buildings and land loss)

Temporary inundation 15 Million € / year 30 Million € / year 60 Million € / year

Adaptation recommendations
> Enhance knowledge, particularly with regular data collection at
representative study sites to improve long term coastal evolution modeling

> Share knowledge with the public to accurately communicate risk perception

> Development of planning progams that take into account climate change
(e.g. government risk prevention plans, inundation zone maps, local urban
planning documents, land use planning management)

> Envisage protection, relocation, and adaptation strategies at all levels of

management (local, regional, and national)

> Adopting « without regrets » adaptation measures addressing today’s risks

Insufficient
as a first step towarddata for robust
addressing futurecost-benefit
coastal risks analyses

Increased risk of over-adaptation (high cost of adaptation) and

under-adaptation (high cost of damages), both with strong
economic consequences (Hallegatte et al., 2006)
Limitations of this study: chain of errors

Climate change

Local sea level rise

A continuation of this
study investigates these
Long term coastal evolution 3 sources of error, to
(erosion/accretion)
quantify and minimize the
largest errors to improve
Ability to accurately identify the RNACC method.
affected zones

Accurate population and

land use statistics

Ability to estimate
associated costs
Conclusions
> Costs of current risks are negligible in comparison to the
cost of future risks

> Costs of potential damages due to erosion and permanent

inundation are larger than those due to temporary inundation

> Emphasizes the importance of developing long-term coastal

management plans at all levels of governance

> At a minimum, it is necessary to reduce short-term risks as a

first step toward reducing long-term risks

> Highlights a number of limitations and sources of errors in

climate change impact studies due to limited data availability
(study in progress to quantify and reduce these errors)
Thank you for your attention!

Study financed by:

French Ministry of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable

Development, and the Sea (MEEDDM)
and

BRGM Research Division

Photo: Yann Krien
Quality of Topographic Data
• Datasets available in Languedoc-
Roussillon include:
• DTM of IGN, with 50m horizontal
resolution and 1m vertical steps

• DTM of Intermap, with 5m horizontal

resolution

• DTM - Lidar data, with 2m horizontal

resolution
Limitations of this study: chain of errors

Climate change
Sea level rise scenarios:
0, 0.5, 1, and 1.5m

Local sea level rise

Long term coastal evolution:

Long term coastal evolution
(erosion/accretion)
Ability to accurately identify
affected zones
• The Bruun Rule
• Extrapolation of historical trends
• Extrapolation of historical trends with an
ajustment based on the Bruun Rule
• A fixed erosion rate (i.e. 500m in this
study)
• Scientific expertise

Quality of available topographic data:

Accurate population and 50m horizontal resolution, 1m vertical steps
land use statistics 5m horizontal resolution
2m horizontal resolution

Ability to estimate
associated costs
Sea Level Rise Scenarios
> Total land area affected by erosion, following the Bruun Rule and
four different sea level rise scenarios:
• Sea level rise 0m = 0 km2
• Sea level rise 0.5m = 1.26 km2
• Sea level rise 1m = 2.52 km2
• Sea level rise 1.5m = 3.78 km2

Erosion caused by
sea level rise
Long Term Coastal Evolution
> Land area affected by erosion following four different methods of
assessment:
• Fixed buffer zone (RNACC project) = 14.29 km2
• Bruun Rule = 2.52 km2
• Extrapolation of historical trends = 1.86 km2 (+0.65 km2)*
• Extrapolation of historical trends, = 3.22 km2 (+0.21 km2)*
adjusted with Bruun Rule * land area gained by accretion
Quality of Topographic Data

Submersion Submersion
Données Submersion temporaire, temporaire,
Erosion*
altimétriques permanente** événement événement
décennale** centennale**
MNT de l’IGN 1.2 km2 8.5 (2.3) km2 4.0 (3.2) km2 3.9 (3.7) km2

MNT d’Intermap 2.6 km2 11.0 (5.1) km2 3.3 (3.2) km2 1.1 (1.1) km2

MNT du Lidar 0.7 km2 4.3 (3.3) km2 3.5 (3.3) km2 1.4 (1.4) km2