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Energy and Demand Forecasting Workshop

by
Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA)
DAY 2
Training on Demand Forecasting and Integrated
Resource Planning

Day 2 – Session 5a
Demand Forecasting – Long Term
Long-term Demand Forecasting

• General planning cycle is 5-10 years


• Power sector long-term strategic planning horizon is 10-20 years
• Power sector long-term implementation planning horizon is 5-
10 years
• Regulatory requirements; 20 year load and energy FC, updated
and submitted annually
• High, medium and low scenarios in forecasts
• Annual update requires collection of data on independent
variables, annually

Demand Forecasting and IRP Training. August 24 – 25, Islamabad - Pakistan


Slide 3
Long-term Demand Forecasting
(Using model-based method)

• NTDC already has developed model and tool (Eviews)


• National level forecasts (NTDC and KE) developed 2014-2033 (in
2014)
• Market Survey method also used to forecast 2013-2023
• Both regression and PMS models seem to be updated and
refined regularly, at NTDC
• There appears to be good match between 2 forecasts
• DISCOs are also being engaged to use PMS model
• However, official commitment on part of DISCOs is low

Demand Forecasting and IRP Training. August 24 – 25, Islamabad - Pakistan


Slide 4
Long-term Demand Forecasting
(Using model-based method)

• Regression models are most commonly used method


• Critical issues;
• Availability of historic data (doesn’t seem to be an issue for NTDC)
• Quality of historic data (Model shows great fit)
• Availability of data at lower network levels (forecasting at DISCO,
substation, feeder, customer class requires apportioning estimates)
• DISCOs might consider developing own models using different variables
e.g. used in PMS
• Reliability/accuracy, need to be tested regularly
• Annual revision, might require substantial effort?
• Does forecast improve with annual revision? Need to be tested

Demand Forecasting and IRP Training. August 24 – 25, Islamabad - Pakistan


Slide 5
Long-term Demand Forecasting
(Power Market Survey)

• DISCO level modelling already in place, operated by DISCO staff


• Appears to contain good number of estimates, that are adjusted
annually e.g.;
• Load factors
• Coincidence factors
• Growth rates
• Computed demand as against measured demand
• Generally such models require substantial adjustments and fine-
tuning to produce reliable output

Demand Forecasting and IRP Training. August 24 – 25, Islamabad - Pakistan


Slide 6
Long-term Demand Forecasting
(Timeseries Methods - Trending)

• Both Regression and PMS forecasts, do not provide comparison


against trend forecasting
• Based on available historic data the following issues need
addressing;
• While measured demand is less questionable, computed values do not
appear to be of good quality
• This perhaps is the major barrier to using trend forecasting method for
Long-term FC
• With regulatory requirement to revise LT FC annually, trend FC
can most likely help improve FC accuracy/reliability
• Consider using advanced trend FC technique e.g. seasonal FC,
and use of ES
• Trend FC may compliment regression and PMS FC
Demand Forecasting and IRP Training. August 24 – 25, Islamabad - Pakistan
Slide 7
Long-term Demand Forecasting
(Timeseries Methods – Load Research)

• Load research is increasingly used by utilities as core diagnostic


activity
• With smart/interval meters becoming wide spread, the data for
load research becomes available
• The 1 hourly demand data at DISCO level apparently is available
(probably as SCADA data)
• However, no evidence that such data is used for analytical
purpose
• Suggested that NEPRA/ CPPA seriously consider making it
mandatory for all DISCOs to engage in load research
• Comprehensive load research can greatly assist with FC, while
supporting other activities

Demand Forecasting and IRP Training. August 24 – 25, Islamabad - Pakistan


Slide 8
Long-term Demand Forecasting
(Recommendations)

• Continue using regression based FC and PMS methods at national


level, while improving model design
• Update forecasts and review model performance annually
• Help DISCOs also use regression models, with different set of
model design and variables
• Improve methods to estimating computed demand
• Consider using load research methods
• Consider using trend forecasting, using advanced methods and
approaches
• Consider producing forecasts through different methods and
monitor performance of methods

Demand Forecasting and IRP Training. August 24 – 25, Islamabad - Pakistan


Slide 9

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