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OVERVIEW on CLIMATE &

TRENDS in the PHILIPPINES


“Enhancing Communities Capacities to Confront
Extreme Geo-Meteorological Events at the Core of
Climate Change”

Bulwagang Juan Luna, UP, Baguio City


23 November 2009

RUSY G. ABASTILLAS
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
DOST-PAGASA
Philippine The nation’s
meteorological service
Atmospheric and public weather
service provider

Geophysical
Astronomical
Services
Administration
NETWORK OF OBSERVATIONS

58 Synoptic Stations
23 Agromet Stations
4 Radiosonde Stns.
5 Meteorological
Satellite Receiving
Facilities
10 Doppler radars
(2 years from now)
The Philippine Climate
…Characterized by humid equatorial
or tropical maritime
Type14Climate:
Type Climate:
Rainfall
Two more or seasons:
pronounced less evenly
dry from
distributed throughout the year.
November to April, wet during the rest
of the year.
Type
Type23Climate:
Climate: MM
oon nt h
t hl lyy RRaai innf faal lll oo ff P
Toa gr b
t iAl ar e
r aa n, M
C iat y
n ,i lBao h
( To y
l p( T
e y pI )e I V )

Baguio City No
Seasons
dry season
5 0 0 not very
withpronounced,
a pronounced
200

maximum
relatively dry
rainfall
fromfrom
November
November
to April
to
180
4 5 0

160
4 0 0

January.
and wet during the rest of the year.
3 5 0
140

120

Rainfall(mm)
)m 3 0 0 Moonnt thhl lyy RRa ai ni nf af al ll lo o
M f fT L
u eg g
u ae s
gpa ir aCoi ,t yC(aTgy.p (eT IyI )p e I I I )
m
(a2 5 0 100
ifl l 6 03 00 0
n
aR 80
2 0 0

60
15
5 002 0
5 0

40
1 0 0

4 02 00 0
20
) 50
m
(mm) m
lla3la l(05 0
01 0
fn fn
i 0 JAN FEB M A R APR M A Y JUN JUL A U G SEP O CT NO V D EC
i aR J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J UM
L oAn U
t hG S E P O C T N O V D E C
aR Mo n t h
2 01 00 0

1 0 05 0
ClimateType
Climate TypeIIV
0 0
J A NJ F
AEN BF EMBA M
R A AR PARP RM A MY A Y
J UJNU NJ UJ LU LA U
AGU GS S
EEP P OOC CT T N NO OV V D DE EC C

Mean annual rr=2379.3


Dipolog M oM
n tohn t h

Infanta =3967.3

ClCimlimataetTeyTpyepIeIIII
Hinatuan =4168.3 Gen San
Normal Temperature (Maximum, Minimum,Mean) of
Monthly Normal Rainfall of Baguio City (1971-2000)
Baguio City (1971-2000)
1000.0 30.0
900.0
800.0 25.0

Rainfall in mm
700.0
20.0
Rainfall inmm

600.0
500.0 15.0
400.0
10.0
300.0
200.0 5.0
100.0
0.0
0.0 JAN FEBMAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Month TMax TMin TMean Month

Annual mean temperature of Baguio City(1971-2005)

20.5

20.0
Temp in °C

19.5

19.0
y = 0.0071x + 19.358
18.5

18.0

17.5
1983
1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005
Year
annual mean temp Linear (annual mean temp)
Climatic controls that influence the climate in the Philippines
• geography and topography – large hilly terrain, and coastalplains
• semi-permanent lows and highs – produces airstreams /ocean currents
• air streams
- southwesterlies (SW monsoon)- Apr-Sep
- northeasterlies (NE monsoon) –Oct- Mar
- easterlies (North Pacific trades) – transition period
• ocean currents = SST average 27.4C Phil. Sea • influenced by complex
• linear systems interactions
- ITCZ
• rainfall variability
- cold front
- easterly waves • threatened by ECEs
• tropical cyclones • various sectors affected
•Devastating impacts could be mitigated
• ENSO phenomenon through clear understanding of the
complex mechanisms and dev’t of
effective forecast tools.
Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines

NORTHEAST
MONSOON
(AMIHAN)

TROPICAL
CYCLONE

L
L L
L
SOUTHWEST INTERTROPICAL
MONSOON CONVERGENCE
(HABAGAT) ZONE (ITCZ)
ITCZ L ITCZ L
ITCZ
L ITCZ
L

ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT (TAIL-END)


AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND ITCZ AFFECTING
SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO
Seasonal Rainfall Distribution in the Philippines
AVERAGE RAINFALL AVERAGE RAINFALL
APRIL-SEPTEMBER OCTOBER-MARCH
First (1951-2000) Second (1951-2000)

semestral semestral

Cold air from


Siberia
Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines
Period: 1948-2005

Northern Luzon is most


frequently hit by tropical
cyclones followed by
Catanduanes and Northern
Samar and least in the
Mindanao area.

Monthly Average Frequency of Tropical Cyclone


in the PAR

3.5

3.0

N o . of T ropical C y c l o n es
2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mo n t h

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
Climate Variability /ENSO
IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL

Legend:
Severe drought
impacts
Drought impacts
with major losses
Moderate drought
impacts
Near normal to
above normal
condition
Way above
normal condition
Potential for
flood damage
Severe flood
damage

RED colored years are EL NINO


years, BLUE colored years are LA
NINA years and BLACK colored
years are NON_ENSO years
TRENDS…

 Temperature
 Rainfall
 Tropical Cyclones
Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006


Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006


Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures


almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines*
Period: 1961 – 2003
Trend in the frequency of days with Trend in the frequency with minimum
maximum temperature above the 1961- temperature above the 1961-1990 mean
1990 mean 99th percentile (Hot days). 99th percentile (Warm nights).

Significant Significant
increase in the increase in the
frequency of frequency of
hot days warm nights

*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines*
Period: 1961 – 2003
(Cool days). (Cold nights).

Significant Significant
decrease in decrease in
the number the number
of cold days of cool nights

• Significant decrease in the number of cold days and cool nights.


*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
Trend in Annual Total
Rainfall* (1961 – 2003) Total
Annual
Rainfall

• Decreases in the top


northern part of
Luzon and Southern
Luzon.
• Increases in the Bicol
Region (except Daet),
Visayas and
Mindanao
• Findings not
statistically
significant

*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
AnnualNumberTropical Cyclonesandfive-year runningmean

31
Frequency of tropical Cyclones

y =-0.0104x+19.755
26

21

16

11

1
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year

Numberof TropicalCyclones 5per. Mov.Avg.(Numberof TropicalCyclones) Linear (Numberof TropicalCyclones)


TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

250

1971-00
1951-80

1961-90
200

51-80
Number

150
61-90
71-00
100

50

0
LUZON
Luzon VISAYAS
Visayas
MINDANAO
Mindanao
Mean Number of Tropical Cyclones during Normal, El Niño and La
Niña Years
12
10
TC Frequency

8
6
4
2
0
JFM (QTR1) AMJ (QTR 2) JAS(QTR3) OND(QTR4)

Normal Years La Niña Years El Niño Years

La Niña El Niño
Year Normal Years Years Years
JFM (QTR1) 1.21 1.24 0.38
AMJ (QTR 2) 3.29 2.87 2.38
JAS (QTR3) 9.91 8.86 8.85
OND (QTR4) 6.55 6.79 4.56
Total 20.96 19.76 16.17
Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated with
the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2005)
% of Rainfall
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Station N a m e s
NAIA 429
PortArea 425
Science Garden 430
Sangley Point 428
Vigan 222
Tuguegaro 233
B aguio City 328
Dagupan 325
Iba, Z a m b a l e s 324
Cubi Pt,Subic 426
Am bulong 432
Calapan 431
Puerto Princes a 618
Cuyo 630
Coron 526
Itbayat 132
Bas co Synop 135
Calayan 133
Aparri 232
Cabanatuan 330
Casiguran 336
Alabat 435
Infanta 434
Romblon 536
Mas bate 543
Daet 440
Legaspi 444
Virac Synop 446
Virac R a d a r 447
Roxas City 538
Iloilo 637
Catarm an 546
Catbalogan 548
Tac loban City 550
Dumaguete 642
Mactan 646
Maas in 648
Surigao City 653
Hinatuan 755
Dipolog 741
Lumbia 747
Cagayan De Oro 748
Malaybalay 751
Davao 753
Zamboanga 836

% Annual R R due to T C % Annual R R due other W x Systems


HIGHLIGHTS:

 The Philippines is highly vulnerable to the


impacts of tropical cyclones: flooding,
high winds, storm surges and landslides.
 Increasing trend in annual mean
temperature
 No trend in rainfall pattern

 No trend in the total number of annual


tropical cyclones
RECENT DEVASTATING TROPICAL
CYCLONES

1. Ondoy (Ketsana)
2. Pepeng (Parma)
P A R LINE

P
A
R
L
I
N
E

P
A
R
L
I
N
E

P A R LINE
On September 26, shortly before noon in (around 0400 UTC), Ketsana made its landfall
at the border of Aurora and Quezon provinces, packed with maximum winds of 85 km/h
near the center and gustiness of up to 100 km/h.
TS Ondoy brought the worst rainfall to Metro Manila among recorded typhoons since
the start of rainfall record keeping , producing only moderate winds but hours of
extremely heavy rains. Metro Manila experienced the highest rainfall in history that
brought heavy flooding.
PAGASA documented a record-high amount of rainfall in 24 hours at 455 mm
(17.9 in) recorded during September 26). And also, the amount of rainfall recorded
for six hours, which was 341.3 mm (13.44 in), was comparable to the 24 hour rainfall
in 1967.

SCIENCE GARDEN Greatest Daily RR = 334.5 mm ( June 7, 1967).


24-Hr Rainfall at SelectedStations
24-Hr Ra infa ll during the
500.0
Passag e of S “Ondoy”
Rainfall Amt in mm.

(Sept. T 27, 2009)


400.0

300.0
200.0
24-
STATIONNAME 25 26 27
100.0
24
0.0 IBA 15.0 8.2 103.8 40.0
IBA SUBIC BAY SCIENCE TANAY PORTAREA 10.4 41.3 258.5 7.0
GARDEN SUBICBAY 6.0 50.4 127.7 55.0
SANGLEYPOINT 6.0 61.4 163.0 7.0
Station Name SCIENCEGARDEN 1.1 94.0 455.0 6.0
AMBULONG T 49.5 234.5 8.0
TANAY 0.0 141.4 331.8 13.0
24-hr RR vs Normal RR for Sept. 26, 2009 at Selected
Stations affected by TS "Ondoy"
Rainfall in mm

600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
IBA PORT AREA SCIENCE SANGLEY AMBULONG
GARDEN POINT

Stations

24-hr RR Normal Sept


Ondoy’s Fury
“Ondoy’s Fury”
TY PEPENG (Parma) Sept.30-Oct.10
Rainfall Associated w/ TC Passage (Pepeng)
Cumulative RR (Oct. 1-10, 2009) vs. October Normal RR
C u m u l a t ive Rainfall (Oct. 1- 10, 2 0 0 9 ) v s O c t o b e r N o r m a l
2500

2250
TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT

2000

T
RRinmm.
1750

1500

Y
1250

1000

750

500

P 250

e
p
S t a t io n s
e
n S T AT I O N S TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT Extreme Rainfall (24-hr) Highest Day
I T B A YA T 303.6 478.7 678.2 8-Jun-1981 106.1 6-Oct-09

g BASCO
VIGAN
LAOAG
281.3
1005.3
843.4
429.2
154.3
143.6
616.4
594.1
564.2
27-Oct-1991
18-Jul-1920
4-Sep-1913
95.0
417.3
402.6
7-Oct-09
4-Oct-09
4-Oct-09
APARRI 338.6 359.5 453.1 22-Nov-1973 154.5 3-Oct-09
TUGUEGARAO 508.5 324.4 349.7 22-Nov-1973 188.7 3-Oct-09
ECHAGUE 238.2 239.6 111.9 8-Oct-09
IB A 236.7 273.7 623.7 21-Sep-1935 99.8 3-Oct-09
DAGUPAN 759.7 200.6 722.6 27-May-2003 443.5 8-Oct-09
BSU 2169.2 290.2 761.8 8-Oct-09
BAGUIO 1876.5 461.8 1085.8 4-Jul-2001 685.0 8-Oct-09
MUÑOZ 302.1 201.7 208.0 8-Oct-09
CABANATUAN 267.5 207.3 406.1 28-Jul-1952 96.2 8-Oct-09
Daily RR at Selected
Stations in Luzon
(Oct. 1-10, 2009)

Stations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Decadal Highest24-hr


ITBAYAT 0.2 8.0 67.9 25.2 16.1 106.1 12.0 48.0 19.3 0.8 303.6 106.1
BASCO 0.0 14.2 31.6 0.8 8.7 69.6 95.0 50.2 11.0 0.2 281.3 95.0
VIGAN 0.0 31.7 168.9 417.3 126.2 75.4 68.6 111.8 5.4 0.0 1005.3 417.3
LAOAGCITY 0.0 10.7 90.6 402.6 197.3 47.5 60.0 33.0 1.7 0.0 843.4 402.6
APARRI 0.0 34.0 154.5 0.0 8.0 35.1 82.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 338.6 154.5
TUGUEGARAO 0.0 90.3 188.7 0.0 4.8 23.5 129.7 71.5 0.0 0.0 508.5 188.7
ECHAGUE 0.0 29.6 0.0 0.1 2.6 94.0 111.9 0.0 238.2 111.9
IBA T 52.6 99.8 0.0 0.2 3.4 19.7 47.4 13.6 0.0 236.7 99.8
DAGUPANCITY T 25.5 159.5 8.0 T 36.2 52.0 443.5 35.0 0.0 759.7 443.5
BSU 2.1 23.7 410.7 72.9 2.2 471.8 346.9 761.8 77.1 2169.2 761.8
BAGUIOCITY 0.4 20.0 531.0 38.2 4.6 260.0 276.0 685.0 61.3 0.0 1876.5 685.0
MUÑOZ 0.2 18.5 0.0 0.5 10.7 63.8 208.0 0.4 0.0 302.1 208.0
CABANATUANCITY 20.0 24.8 65.4 0.0 2.3 2.0 54.8 96.2 2.0 0.0 267.5 96.2
“Pepeng’s Fury”
Thank
You!!!