Struggle for Global Primary

 Throughout history great powers such as Rome, Spain

and Britain have experienced growth and decline
through competition and internal weakness
Power Transition Theory (offshoot
of cycle theories)
 “Distribution of power changes in countries will rise
and fall.”

 Multi-polar: before WWII

 Bipolar: post WWII
 Unipolar: post USSR
Concept of Power
 “Ability to get others- individuals, groups, or nations –
to behave in a way that they would oridnarily try to
avoid.”
Power Capabilities
 Are usually determined

 (i) Economic Strength

 (ii) Military Strength
 (iii) Political effectiveness
Elements of Power
 (i) Geographic area
 (ii) location
 (iii) Population
 (iv) Natural resources
Other Elements
 (a) Intelligence capabilities
 (b) quality of leadership
 (c) level of educational and technological achievement
 (d) openness of the political system
 (e) character of people
 (f) Transportation and communication capabilities
 (g) Ideology
 (h) appeal of a country’s culture (soft power)
Power Conversion
 Potential power (measured by available resources) into
realized power (determined by the changed behavior
of others)
Leadership
 Three types
 (i) Structural leadership
 Ability control of economic resources, military power

 (ii) Institutional leadership

 Ability to determine the rules, principles, procedures
and practices that guide the behavior of members of a
global community.
 Situational leadership
 Ability of seize opportunity to build or reorient the
global system, apart from distribution of power and
building the institutions
The Rise of Great Powers
 1. Threats and opportunities in International system.
 2. States fear power vacuums.
Population pressures ---- Expansion
 (i) Urbanization – (freedom and innovation)
 Diverse group of people with differing ideas
 (ii) Geography. USA. UK
 (iii) War
Why Great power Decline
 Hubws: (excessive Pride)
 Overestimate their power and expand their military
power to an extent that economic base is eroded.

 Lippmann Gap:
 Paul Kennedy called it Imperial overstretch
How to maintain power
 (i) Democratic enlargment
 (ii) Build Institutions
 (iii) Off shore balancing
 (iv) Containment
 (v) Binding alliances and engagement
US Rise to power
 Military spending - $ 700 billion
 40% of Global military spending
 Spends more on Military Research & Development
than six great powers combined
 5 % of world population produces 25% of world GDP
 Economic worth 17 .1 trillion dollars
 Per capita income $52000 vs 6000 $ of China
 Best universities in the world
History
 Influence of British values and institutions
 The Mexican –American War (1846-48)
 The Spanish American War 1898
 The Monroe Doctrine 1823
 Isolationism
WWI and Woodrow Wilson
 League of Nations
WWII
 Pearl Harbor Dec 7, 1941
USA Airforce established 1947
Challenging US Hegemony
 Population 1.3 billion
 2.6 trillion foreign Resources
 2nd longest economy
 22 % American increasing debt