Keynote Message:

SCIENCE-BASED DISASTER
IMAGINATION KEY TO DISASTER
RISK REDUCTION
Regional Conference on Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management
17 October 2017
Renato U. Solidum, Jr.
Undersecretary, Department of Science and Technology
OIC, Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
 HIGH Natural HAZARD and
RISK of the Philippines
• 3rd among countries exposed to hazards

• 3rd among countries at risk to disasters

 Hydro-Meteorological Hazards
• An average of 20
tropical cyclones
affects the country
annually

• These are
accompanied by
heavy rains and
strong winds that may
produce floods,
landslides and
storm surges

• Other weather
systems bring rains Typhoon Yolanda, 2013
(Y It Happened)
 Tropical Cyclone Ondoy, 2009:
Flood in Metro Manila and Nearby Provinces
• Heavy rain and strong
winds
• PhP 11 billion damage to
infrastructure and
agriculture
• Affected 4.9 million
people
• 464 killed, 529 injured, 37
missing
• 15,800 families or 70,000
people sheltered in
evacuation area
Source: Associated Press * NDCC
Severe Wind and Storm Surge in Eastern Visayas
Due to Tropical Cyclone Yolanda, 2013

• 6183 died

• 36.7 billion pesos total

damage
NDRRMC
 2006 Guinsaugon, St. Bernard Landslide
• deep, slide surface
80 meters below

•21 million cubic

meters

• ~ 1000 dead

• 281 houses totally

damaged; whole
village covered

Guinsaugon was fronting a steep slope,

which is heavily fractured and covered by
an old landslide deposit
 Typhoon UNDING
(ROXAS, MINDORO ORIENTAL, NOVEMBER 14-21, 2004)

BONGABONG, MINDORO ORIENTAL ROXAS, MINDORO ORIENTAL

BOUNDARY OF ROXAS
AND BONGABONG
 Geological Hazards
SEISMICITY OF THE PHILIPPINES

The country hosts ~300 More than 90 destructive

volcanoes, of which, 24 earthquakes, 40 tsunamis
are considered active since 1600s
 1976 M7.9 Moro Gulf
Earthquake and Tsunami
• First tsunami wave reported within
2 to 5 minutes of the main shock
• Tsunami height up to 9 meters
• Death ~6000
• Injury ~8000
• Rendered homeless ~90,000
• Damage PhP400 million (1976
value)

Village inundated by tsunami

The Tsunami of September 21, 1897 in Sulu Sea

Earthquake Source:
• M7.5 along Sulu Trench
offshore of Zamboanga

Some Tsunami Accounts in

Palawan:
• Cuyo Island: Cuyo port faces
west. The first wave was
observed 1 1/2 hours after the
shock. Water receded far beyond
the low tide level for half an hour
and then returned after a few
minutes.
• South coast of Palawan:
Extraordinary waves experienced

From PHIVOLCS - Bautista et al (2006)

M7.8 July 16, 1990 Luzon Earthquake
• Affected north and central
Luzon

• Casualties:
Dead – 1,283
Injured – 2,786
Missing – 321

• Houses and Buildings

Damaged:
Total – 25,305
Partial – 77,249

• Estimated total damage:

PhP 12.225 B
* NDCC
Significant Earthquakes in Region IVB
1994 M7.1
1942 M7.7 1971
M6.9
1928 19701925M6.7
M7.0 M6.3

1962 M7.1

1990 M7.0
1951 M6.5

1948 M8.3
2012 M6.9

2013
M7.2
15 November 1994 M7.1 Mindoro Earthquake
• Tsunami with maximum 8
meters high; 200 meters
inundation; First wave 5
minutes after quake
• Dead – 78 (41 by tsunami)
• Injured – 43
• 7566 houses damaged
• 1530 houses washed away
by tsunami
• Damaged bridges - 24

Fissuring of roads Tsunami effects

 Projected Impacts of Climate Change
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C
Food Falling crop yields in many areas,
particularly developing regions
Possible rising yields in some Falling yields in many
high latitude regions developed regions

Water Small mountain glaciers Significant decreases in water

availability in many areas, including Sea level rise
disappear – water
supplies threatened in Mediterranean and Southern Africa threatens major cities
several areas

Ecosystems
Extensive Damage to Rising number of species face extinction
Coral Reefs

Extreme
Weather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Events
Risk of Abrupt and
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt,
Major Irreversible
large-scale shifts in the climate system
Changes 14
Source: Adapted from the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change
From CCC, 2013
DISASTER IMAGINATION
for Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management
 Disaster Losses
• Life loss or Injury
• Damage to buildings, infrastructures, properties,
equipment
• Loss of lifelines – water, energy/electricity,
communication, transport systems (roads,
bridges, rail, seaport, airport)
• Damage to or interruption of food supply
• Loss of public and other critical services
• Loss of business or revenues from business
interruption
• Damage to environment
Goals of Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management

• Reduce losses

• Ensure effective and efficient response

• Recover fast and build better

 Disaster Imagination
• Need to have science-based disaster
imagination or hazard and risk scenarios

• Disaster Risk Reduction

and Management
require local to national
efforts for:
Mitigation
Preparedness
Response
Recovery
 KEY ACTIONS
for Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management
 KEY ACTIONS FOR DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT
• Know Hazards and Risks
<- Hazard and Risk Assessment
• Monitor
<- Monitoring
• Warn and Disseminate Information
<- Communication
• Respond Appropriately and Timely
<- Preparedness, Mitigation, Response,
Recovery
Hazards and Risk
Assessment
ORGANIZATIONS INVOLVED IN NATURAL
HAZARDS AND RISK ASSESSMENT
Department of Science and Technology (DOST)
PHIVOLCS– earthquake, tsunami and volcano-related hazards and
scenarios
PAGASA– flood and storm surge hazard; climate change scenarios

Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR)

MGB – flood and landslide
NAMRIA – aerial photography and remote sensing, topographic base
mapping, geoportal development

Academe
*DOST funded projects: DREAM-LiDAR (LiDAR topography,
flood hazards; NOAH (rain-triggered landslide, storm surge)
 GEOHAZARDS PROGRAM
MGB-DENR
- Major focus on rain-related hazards:
Landslides and Flood mapped at 1:50,000 to
1:10,000 scale
 DOST PROJECT NOAH
(National Operational Assessment of Hazards)

- DREAM (LIDAR Mapping and Flood Assessment)

- Landslide Mapping
- Storm Surge Mapping
PHIVOLCS EARTHQUAKE HAZARD AND
RISK ASSESSMENT PROGRAM
 Development of Earthquake Scenario:
Magnitude 7.8 along a part of Manila Trench
SIMULATED INTENSITIES
OF SHAKING
PEIS VIII (very destructive) in
western areas of Mindoro
PEIS VII (destructive) in
eastern areas of Mindoro
PEIS VI (very strong and
slightly damaging) in some of
the northern areas of Mindoro
PEIS V (strong, able to cause
panic) in Busuanga, Tablas,
Romblon and Marinduque,
Sibuyan
PEIS IV (moderately strong)
in northern parts of Palawan
PEIS I - III rest of Palawan
2014Mar18 Simulation using REDAS

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 by BJTP for SSC MiMaRopa

Not felt I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX (PEIS)

Development of Tsunami Scenario:
Manila Trench Source
Estimated Height (meters)

Northern Mindoro Island - ~ 5-8

Oriental Mindoro (east) - 1-3

Occidental Mindoro (west) 6-12

Marinduque - 1

Romblon - 1

North Palawan Islands - 8

Western Palawan 2-5

 Development of Risk Assessment Tool
Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System
• Hazard assessment module
- tools for assessing earthquake
hazards; preparing scenarios
- static maps of various hazards
(geological, hydro-meteorological)
can be integrated

• Exposure data base module

- contains database of elements at
risk which can be updated by local
government

• Impact assessment module

- can estimate damage to buildings,
casualty, economic loss
* Interoperable with QGIS, being shared
with local governments, national
agencies, academic partners and industry
 OTHER RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS
With Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS)

Earthquake
Impact Flood Loss
Assessment Assessment
Module Tool

Severe Wind
Impact
Modelling
Module
HAZARD AND RISK INFORMATION THROUGH
WEB AND PHONE APPLICATIONS
The PHIVOLCS FaultFinder
(locate the nearest active fault from a
specified location or the named barangay).
http://faultfinder.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph
The DOST funded project
The NAMRIA Philippine
DREAM - LIDAR (shares LiDAR,
Geoportal and PHIVOLCS flood hazard and resource maps)
Geoportal (web-GIS based
portal, to view and collate multi-
hazard and risk maps)
lipad.dream.upd.edu.ph
www.geoportal.gov.ph
http://geomatics.phivolcs.dost.
gov.ph:8080/geoportal/
Monitoring and Warning
PAGASA’s operational services includes
five (5) components of EWS
RESPONSE/
ACTION

1. Public weather forecasts

2. Shipping forecast
3. Weather Bulletins
a) Weather Advisory
b) Tropical Cyclone Alert
c) Tropical Cyclone Warning
d) Tropical Cyclone Warning
for Shipping
4. Gale Warning
5. Rainfall Warning
 HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL
WARNING SYSTEMS
Hazards Signal/Warning
Tropical
Cyclone Sig 1 Sig 2 Sig 3 Sig 4 Sig 5

Heavy Rainfall Be Alert Be Prepared Take Action

Thunderstorm Information Watch Advisory

Flood Flood Advisory/Bulletin

Storm Surge Severe Weather Bulletin
Gale Warning
PHIVOLCS Volcano Monitoring Network
 8 volcanoes with
multiparameter monitoring:
seismic, geodetic,
water/gas geochemistry,
remote sensing;
Pinatubo visual/sensory
Taal Mayon
observations
Bulusan

Kanlaon
Hibok-hibok

Matutum
Parker
Integrated Multi-Parameter Volcano Monitoring
Earthquake
GPS Satellite
Visual
IP Camera Observation
Station Repeater
Observation w/o LOS Station
Station
w/ LOS
Main Office
Quezon City

La Carlota City
PHIVOLCS EARTHQUAKE MONITORING
NETWORK • 96-station network (seismographs)

Data Receiving Center at Main Office

Unmanned
stations with
satellite
communication
Digital Seismic Record
INTENSITY MONITORING NETWORK
(~100 intensity meter sensors)
Local
Office PC Display & Comm. unit
Government
2.1 hub Internet

1.1
IT- Sending Intensity Every Few
Kyoshin Seconds

2.3 2.3

1.5 3.3 Data Collection and

Processing
Real-time Intensity Map
 TSUNAMI MONITORING AND WARNING
Network Existing
Real-time *19 (PHIVOLCS thru
tide JICA)
gauges 5 (PTWC, RIMES,
GLOSS)
5 (PHIVOLCS thru
Satreps)
Non Real- 40 (NAMRIA)
time tide
gauges
Community 10
tsunami (PHIVOLCS)
detection
and
warning
system PHIVOLCS thru JICA
• on-going completion PHIVOLCS Community
Tsunami Detection
 Community Tsunami early Warning System –
PHIVOLCS
Tsunami Detection Stations

Cell Site

PHIVOLCS/ASTI and LGUs

Tsunami Visualization and Decision Tool Communities
 Development of Early Warning System for
Deep-Seated Landslide

• DOST-PHIVOLCS and UP
Diliman implemented
the development of
early warning system
for deep-seated
landslides (>3 meters
deep).
• Deep seated landslide
warning systems are
now operational in 50
communities.

Sites indicated by red circles.

 Development of Early Warning System for Deep-Seated
Landslide

• The monitoring system uses

sensors that measure tilt and soil
moisture se placed every one (1)
meter node of a borehole setup, Schematic diagram of monitoring system.
which will detect landslide motion
at depth.

Sensors for tilt (left) and soil moisture (right).

 GEOLOGICAL WARNING
SYSTEMS
Hazards Alert/Warning
Volcano Alert 1 2 3 4 5
Hazardous Hazardous
Level Abnormal Elevated
Unrest
High Level
Unrest
Eruption Eruption
Imminent Ongoing

Advisory Advisory Advisory

Tsunami NO SEA LEVEL MINOR SEA TSUNAMI
WARNING
Information THREAT CHANGE
MONITORING
LEVEL
DISTURBANCE

Deep-seated 1 2 3
Recent rainfall/ Significant ground Critical
Landslide Alert earthquake may movement ground
cause landslide PREPARE TO movement
Level WAIT FOR UPDATE EVACUATE EVACUATE
 DOST’s
Research & Development
Agenda for Disaster Risk
Reduction and Climate
Change Adaptation and
Mitigation
 Priorities
1. Observation and 5. Warning and Risk
Monitoring Networks Communication
2. Technology Development 6. Technology Development
and Application for and Application for
Monitoring Climate Change
3. Modeling and Simulation Adaptation and Mitigation
for Improvement of 7. Technology Development
Monitoring and and Application for
Forecasting Disaster Risk
4. Hazards, Vulnerability and Management
Risk Assessment 8. Policy Research
 SUMMARY
• Region IVB is prone to natural hazards.

• Appropriate preparedness, mitigation and response

activities must be based on appropriate hazard and
impact scenarios.

• Possible hazards and its effects in localities and the

whole region must be imagined to craft and implement
appropriate solutions.

• Information and tools are available for communities to be

safer. Let us collectively make our communities safer and
resilient to disasters.
THANK YOU.
www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

/PHIVOLCS

@phivolcs_dost