Está en la página 1de 61

 Introduction.

 The Generational Cycle Theory.

 The Long Economic Cycle Theory.

 Oil And Other Commodities Cycle.

 Oil data of Venezuela.

 The Macro of Venezuela.

 Democracy and “The Rule of Law”.

 Q&A.
Introduction.
The Generational Cycle Theory: Howe and Strauss.

 A 85-105 Years Cycle. Saeculum.

 Four Phases: High, Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis.

 Four Generations: Artist, Prophet, Nomad, Civic


(Silent, Boomers, Gen. X, Millennial)
 One Social, Political and Economic Order per Cycle.

 One Zeitgeist per Cycle, or Saeculum.


European Cycles: Crisis Dates.

 Reform 1517.

 Thirty Years War 1618.

 Spanish Succession War 1705. Vienna Treaty 1725.

 Napoleonic Wars. Treaty of Paris 1815.

 WWI 1914. Versailles Treaty of 1919 delays The Crisis.

 See: “España y la Crisis Secular Europea”. Luis Riestra.


Vozpopuli.com
Swedish Generational Cycles: Crisis Dates

 Lutheran Saeculum 1517 -.


 Imperial Saeculum 1618 -.
 Liberty - Enlightenment Saeculum 1718 (Linnaeus).
 Jean-Baptiste Bernardote Saeculum 1810 (Norway)
 Social-democratic Saeculum 1920.

 See: “Suecia y el Mito Nórdico”. Luis Riestra.


Vozpopuli.com
Spanish Cycles: Crisis Dates.

 First Habsburg Saeculum 1516. Carlos I.


 Second H.S.: Failed Pax Hispánica 1610. Felipe III-IV.
 First Bourbon Saeculum Felipe V. 1715. Enlightenment.
 Second B. S.: Treaty of Paris 1815. The “Empire” Falls.
Independence of Overseas Territories (1810-1830).
 WWI. Versailles Treaty 1919 delays Crisis. II Rep 1930 - Civil
War, Political Mesianism, Franco, etc.
 See: “Las Eras de Hispania” and “Economía Generacional
Española”. Luis Riestra. Vozpopuli.com
Venezuelan Generational Cycles: Crisis Dates.

 First Habsburg Saeculum 1516. Carlos I.

 Second H.S. “Pax Hispánica” 1610. Felipe IV.

 First Bourbon Saeculum Felipe V. 1715. Enlightenment.

 Independence (1810-1830) . Revolutionary Saeculum.

 Rule of Oil Saeculum (1908). J.V. Gómez (1908-1935)

 Note: “Los Godos”, strong men conserving power.


Venezuelan Generational Cycles: Crisis Dates.
Venezuelan Generational Cycles: Crisis Dates.
Venezuelan Generational Cycle.
Venezuelan Generational Cycles.

“Fifty-fifty” of profits (1945-1948). “El excremento del Diablo” (1976).


Venezuelan Generational Cycle.
Venezuelan Generational Cycle.

Order: System of plunder ruled by a


decompensated civil-military oligarchy.

Alibi?: Social-democracy, National-socialism,


Social-nationalism or Democratic Socialism.

Zeitgeist: Political-messianism.
The Long Economic Cycle or Kondratiev’s Cycle.
The Long Economic Cycle Theory.
Motor K-Cycle Reflación Inflación Desinflación Deflación
1784-1844 1784-1800 1800-1816 1816-1835 1835-1844
Textiles
1845-1896 1845-1858 1859-1864 1864-1874 1875-1896
Ferrocarril

Producción en 1896-1949 1896-1907 1907-1920 1920-1929 1929-1949


Masa

Electrónica y
1949-¿20??? 1949-1966 1966-1982 1982-2000 2000- ¿20???
Tecnlgías Inf.

Media en años. 57,75 14,25 13 14 17


The Long Economic Cycle: Kondratiev and Others.
It is a cycle with four phases: reflation, inflation, disinflation and deflation.
The Long Economic Cycle: Kondratiev and Others.
It is a cycle with four phases: reflation, inflation, disinflation and deflation.
The Long Economic Cycle: Kondratiev and Others.
It is a cycle with four phases: reflation, inflation, disinflation and deflation.
The Long Economic Cycle: Deflation
The Long Economic Cycle: Deflation
The Long Economic Cycle: Deflation
The Long Economic Cycle: Deflation
The Long Economic Cycle: Deflation
Oil And Other Commodities Cycle
Oil And Other Commodities Cycle
Oil And Commodities Cycle
Oil And Commodities Cycle – Prebisch and CEPAL
Oil Cycle: Nominal Price.
Oil And Commodities Cycle

See: “El excremento del Diablo”. Luis Riestra


Some Venezuelan Statistics.
Oil Data for Venezuela.
Electricity Generation
Mexico Spain Venezuela Sweden
325.0
Disinflation Deflation
300.0
275.0
250.0
225.0
Terawatt-hours.

200.0
175.0
150.0
125.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
25.0
0.0 © Luis Riestra Delgado 11/2017.
1998

2009
1989

1991

2005
1990

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

2000
2001

2003
2004

2006
2007
2008
2002
1985
1986
1987
1988

1992

1999

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Data Source: BP.
Oil Data for Venezuela.
Oil: Total proved reserves at end 1996 at end 2006 at end 2015 at end 2016

Thousand million Thousand million Thousand million Thousand million Thousand million
barrels barrels barrels barrels tonnes Share
of total

US 29,8 29,4 48,0 48,0 5,8 2,8%

Canada 48,9 179,4 171,5 171,5 27,6 10,0%

Mexico 48,5 12,8 8,0 8,0 1,1 0,5%

Total North America 127,3 221,7 227,5 227,5 34,5 13,3%

Venezuela 72,7 87,3 300,9 300,9 47,0 17,6%

Total S. & Cent. America 90,7 110,8 329,0 327,9 50,8 19,2%

Total Europe & Eurasia 142,8 137,6 154,9 161,5 21,8 9,5%

Iran 92,6 138,4 158,4 158,4 21,8 9,3%

Iraq 112,0 115,0 142,5 153,0 20,6 9,0%

Kuwait 96,5 101,5 101,5 101,5 14,0 5,9%

Qatar 3,7 27,4 25,2 25,2 2,6 1,5%

Saudi Arabia 261,4 264,3 266,6 266,5 36,6 15,6%

United Arab Emirates 97,8 97,8 97,8 97,8 13,0 5,7%

Total Middle East 674,0 755,9 803,0 813,5 110,1 47,7%

Algeria 10,8 12,3 12,2 12,2 1,5 0,7%

Angola 3,7 9,0 11,8 11,6 1,6 0,7%

Libya 29,5 41,5 48,4 48,4 6,3 2,8%

Nigeria 20,8 37,2 37,1 37,1 5,0 2,2%

Total Africa 74,9 116,9 128,2 128,0 16,9 7,5%

China 16,4 20,2 25,7 25,7 3,5 1,5%

India 5,5 5,7 4,8 4,7 0,6 0,3%

Indonesia 4,7 4,4 3,6 3,3 0,5 0,2%

Malaysia 5,0 5,4 3,6 3,6 0,5 0,2%

Vietnam 0,9 3,3 4,4 4,4 0,6 0,3%

Total Asia Pacific 39,0 45,5 48,8 48,4 6,4 2,8%

Data Source: BP. © Luis Riestra Delgado 11/2017.


Data Source: BP.
Oil Data for Venezuela.
2015
Oil Data for Venezuela.
Venezuelan Oil Production. A Long Perspective.
US Canada Mexico Venezuela Norway
14.000
Inflation Disinflation Deflation
12.000
Thousands of Barrels per day.

10.000

8.000

6.000

4.000

2.000
© Luis Riestra Delgado 11/2017.
0.000
1967

1993

2001
1965

1971

1973

1975

1977
1969

1979

1995

2003

2005
1983

1985

1991

1997

1999

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015
1981

1989
1987

Data Source: BP.


Oil Data for Venezuela.
Oil Consumption. Venezuela and The World.
Cons. Venezuela Prod. Venezuela Total World
4.000 120.000
Inflation Disinflation Deflation
3.500

Thousands of Barrels per day. WORLD


100.000
Thousands of Barrels per day. VZLA

3.000
80.000
2.500

2.000 60.000

1.500
40.000

1.000
20.000
0.500
© Luis Riestra Delgado 11/2017.
0.000 0.000
1965

1973
1975
1967
1969
1971

1977
1979

1985

1991

2005

2015
1993

2001
1995
1997
1999

2003

2007
2009
1981
1983

2011
1987
1989

2013
Data Source: BP.
The Macro of Venezuela.
In Millions

100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0

0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mexico

1992
1993
1994

© Luis Riestra Delgado 11-2017.


1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

Data Source: IMF.


2005
2006
POPULATION

2007
2008
The Macro of Venezuela.

2009
2010
Venezuela

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
forecast

2022
The Macro of Venezuela.

Inflation (CPI).
Mexico Venezuela forecast
140.0 5,000
130.0
4,500
120.0
110.0 4,000

100.0 3,500
Annual rate of growth.

90.0
3,000
80.0
70.0 2,500
60.0
2,000
50.0
40.0 1,500

30.0 1,000
20.0
10.0 © Luis Riestra Delgado Nov-2017. 500

0.0 0

2014

2018
1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2016

2020

2022
Data Source: IMF.
The Macro of Venezuela.
Annual rate of growth.

10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0

0.0
5.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mexico

1992
1993
1994

© Luis Riestra Delgado 11-2017.


1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

Data Source: IMF.


2006
2007
Unemployment Rate

2008
The Macro of Venezuela.

2009
2010
Venezuela

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
forecast

2022
The Macro of Venezuela.
The Problem with comrades.
The Problem with comrades.
The Problem with comrades.
The Macro of Venezuela.
Annual rate of growth.

-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mexico

1992
1993
1994

© Luis Riestra Delgado 11-2017.


1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

Data Source: IMF.


2005
2006
2007
GDP Real Growth.

2008
The Macro of Venezuela.

2009
2010
Venezuela

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
forecast

2022
The Macro of Venezuela.
Percentage of GDP.

-20.0
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
10.0

-10.0
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mexico

1992
1993

© Luis Riestra Delgado 11-2017.


1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

Data Source: IMF.


2005
Public Deficit.

2006
2007
2008
2009
The Macro of Venezuela.

2010
Venezuela

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
forecast

2022
Percentage of GDP.

10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0

0.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mexico

1992
1993

© Luis Riestra Delgado 11-2017.


1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

Data Source: IMF.


2005
2006
2007
2008
The Macro of Venezuela.

2009
2010
PUBLIC GROSS DEBT.
Venezuela

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
forecast

2021
2022
Rate in percentage of GDP.

-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0

-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mexico

1992
1993
1994

© Luis Riestra Delgado 11-2017.


1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

Data Source: IMF.


2005
2006
2007
2008
The Macro of Venezuela.

2009
2010
Current Account Balance.
Venezuela

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
forecast

2021
2022
The Macro of Venezuela.
Total Exports of Venezuela.
All Products Export (US$ Thousand) Real 1982-84 Export (US$ Thousand)
100,000,000

90,000,000

80,000,000

70,000,000
Thousands of

60,000,000
dollars.

50,000,000

40,000,000

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000
© Luis Riestra Delgado 11-2017.
0
2002

2015
1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016
Data Source: WTO, FED (0,956 T, 0,449 T).
Oil And Commodities Cycle
The Macro of Venezuela.
Democracy and The Rule of Law.
Oligarchy, Systemic Corruption and The Rule of Law
Oligarchy vs. The Rule of Law: Results.
Democracy and The Rule of Law.

See: “Teoría pura de La República”. Antonio García-Tervijano Forte.


Conclusions.
-The Venezuelan Crisis puts in peril its own existence.
- The oversupply is systemic and almost warrantees “low” prices of oil
for a long time (7 years?).
- The peril of a systemic collapse of Venezuela is certain under the
current order.
- Hyperinflation, famine and unrest will go higher.
- Temporal improvements in oil prices will bring only more populism
making things worse in the medium term.
- Only Democracy will bring Rule of Law and the form of government
capable of sound management.
The End.
Q & A.