Overview

Manajemen Risiko

Yusuf Zalaya
16 September 2017
Risk As a Scientific Method

The Scientific Method

1. Observe a phenomenon.
2. Hypothesize an explanation for the phenomenon.
3. Predict some measurable consequence that your hypothesis
would have if it turned out to be true.
4. Test the predictions experimentally.
Matching of Risk Assessment and
Scientific Method
Scientific Method Risk Management

Observe a phenomenon Risk identification

Hypothesize an explanation for Risk identification

the phenomenon

Predict some measurable

consequence that your hypothesis Risk Assessment
would have if it turned out to be
true
Test the predictions Risk Assessment
experimentally
Basic Concepts
The word hazard comes from al zahr: the Arabic word for dice that
referred to an ancient game of chance
The word Risk comes from al rizq: the Arabic word for Gods
presents
Risk is most commonly defined as the probability of an event that
causes a loss and the potential magnitude of that loss.
Risk management is the culture, processes and structures that are
directed towards realizing potential opportunities whilst managing
adverse effects
lanjutan

Risk management process is the systematic application of

management policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of
communicating, establishing the context, identifying, analysing,
evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk

Risk management framework is set of elements of an organizations

management system concerned with managing risk .
o Management system elements can include strategic planning, decision
making, and other strategies, processes and practices for dealing with risk.
o The culture of an organization is reflected in its risk management system.
 Risk
Risk = (likelihood/probability) x (consequence)

Consequence = What can go wrong ?

Probability = How likely is it ?

Kemungkinan Akibat
Risk Management Process AS/NZS 4360

Risk Management Process

Establish the context

Identify risks

Analyse risks

Evaluate risks
Assess risks

Treat risks
 Establish the context
External context - The organisational context
The risk management context - Develops criteria
Decide the structure

Identify risks
What can happen?
How can it happen?

Analyse Risk
Determine existing control

Determined Likelihood Determined Consequences

Estimate level of risks

Evaluate Risk
Compare againts criteria
Set risk priorities

yes
Assess risk Accept
Risk?

no

TREAT Risk
1. Identify treatment option 4. Prepare treatment plan
2. evaluate treatment options 5. Implement Plan
3. select treatment options
 Evaluated and ranked risk
Risk Treatment Process

Risk yes
Acceptable
Accept

N0

Identify
Communication and consult Treatment Reduce Reduce Transfer in
Avoid
options Likelihood Consequences full or in part

Monitor and review

Consider feasibility costs and benefit
Assess
Treatment
Options Recommend treatment strategies

Select treatment strategy

Prepare
Treatment Prepare treatment plans
Plans

Implement
Treatment Reduce Reduce Transfer in
Avoid
Likelihood Consequences full or in part
plans

Part retained-part transferred

Risk
Acceptable yes
retain

N0
Latar Belakang

Unsafe Act /
Condition

KECELAKAAN
ACCIDENT MODEL

CEDERA
 RISK ASSESSMENT
Probability = all causes start from underlying causes through
immediate causes (semua penyebab mulai dari penyebab yang mendasari
melalui penyebab langsung)

Consequence = Losses (human, property/economic, environment)

RISK MEASUREMENT

Qualitative
Semi Quantitative
Quantitative
 Risk Models
Matrix Model (qualitative)

Probabilistic Model (quantitative)

Index/Scoring Model (semi quantitative)

Matrix Model
Qualitative measures of consequences or impact
AS/NZS 4360
Level Descriptor Example detail description
1 Insignificant No injuries, low financial loss

2 Minor First aid treatment, on-site release immediately contained,

medium financial loss

3 Moderate Medical treatment required, on-site release contained with

outside assistance, high financial loss

4 Major Extensive injuries, loss of production capability, off-site release

with no detrimental effects, major financial loss

5 Catastrophic Death, toxic release off-site with detrimental effect, huge

financial loss
 Qualitative measures of likelihood

Level Descriptor Description

A Almost certain In expected to occur in most circumstances

B Likely Will probably occur in most circumstances

C Possible Might occur in some time

D Unlikely Could occur at some time

E Rare May occur only in exceptional circumstances

 Risk Matrix Level of Risk
Consequences
Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
1 2 3 4 5

A (Almost certain) H H E E E

B (Likely) M H H E E

C (moderate) L M H E E

D (unlikely) L L M H E

E (rare) L L M H H

E : Extreme risk; immediate action required

H : high risk; senior management attention needed
M : moderate risk ; management responsibility must be specified
L : low risk; manage by routine procedures
PROBABILISTIC MODEL

PRA (Probability Risk Assessment), e.g. FTA/ETA

PRA is a mathematical and statistical technique that relies
heavily on historical failure data
This technique is common used in the nuclear, chemical, and
aerospace industries and, to some extent, in the petrochemical
industry.
The output of a PRA is usually in a form whereby its output
can be directly compared to other risks such as motor vehicle
fatalities or tornado damages.
INDEX/SCORING MODEL
Numerical values (scores) are assigned to important conditions and
activities on the operation system that contribute to the risk picture.
Nilai numerik (skor) diberikan pada kondisi dan aktivitas penting pada sistem operasi yang berkontribusi
pada gambaran risiko

This includes both risk reducing and risk-increasing items, or

variables. Ini mencakup item pengurangan risiko dan peningkatan risiko, atau variabel.

Weightings are assigned to each risk variable. Bobot diberikan pada setiap
variabel risiko.
 Generally intolerable Risk cannot be justified
High Except in extraordinary
Risk
circumstances

Basic Safety Limit

ALARP or Tolerable Reduce risk until it reaches

acceptable region.
As Low As Reasobaly Practicable
Residual risk tolerable only if
further risk reduction is
impracticable

Basic Safety Objective

Broadly Acceptable Risk reducation not likely to be

required as resources likely to
be grossly disproportionate to
the reduction achieved
Negligible
Risk

ALARP Concept
 Risk Mapping
33 32
RiskMAP Unacceptable
87 11 53
10.00

35
8.50 168
160128
163 138 126 16 14 9
141 47 15 3 70 121 64 69
158
8.00
145 97 99 62
1 95 75 54 36
7.00
71
5.00

2.50

.50 Acceptable

0
0 0.001 0.010 0.100 0.250 0.500 0.850 1.000

PROBABILITY/LIKELIHOOD
Selection of The Risk Techniques
When the need is to. Technique to use
Study specific events. perform post-incident Event trees. fault trees,
investigations, compare risks of specific failures. FMEA. PRA, HAZOP
calculate specific event probabilities

Obtain an inexpensive overall risk model, create a Indexing model

resource allocation model, model
the interaction of many potential failure
mechanisms, study or create an operating
discipline

Better quantify a belief, create a simple decision Matrix model

support tool, combine several
beliefs into a single solution, document choices in
resource allocation
RISK LEVEL
Basic Level
(without considering the existing program)

Existing level
(By considering the existing program)

Predictive Level
(By considering recommended program)
RISK CONTROL
Eliminasi
1

2 Substitusi

Rekayasa/
3 Engineering

Pengendalian
4 Administratif

Alat Pelindung
5 Diri
RISK CONTROL
HIERARCHY OF CONTROL PROBABILITY CONSEQUENCES

ENGINEERING CONTROL

ADMINISTRATIVE
CONTROL

TRAINING/PROMOTION

PPE/APD
TERIMA
KASIH