Exponential and non-linear growth in population systems

Presentation 5

Implications, dangers,
and

counterintuitive behaviors

Presentation 5

This is the fifth Biospherics 101 presentation in our set of five

See also our supplementary PDFs at www.scribd.com/TheWecskaopProject

This presentation is a courtesy of

The Wecskaop Project

It is entirely free for noncommercial use by scientists, students, and educators anywhere in the world

What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

Copyright 2011, The Wecskaop Project. All rights reserved.

This presentation is about a powerful, deceptive, and dangerously counterintuitive form of mathematics known as

Exponential
mathematics

Dr. Albert Bartlett, Professor of Physics and Astrophysics Emeritus at the University of Colorado

has called the mathematics of

The

Exponential

Function

The worlds most important arithmetic

The example used in this presentation has been modified from one frequently used by Albert Bartlett

known as

Linear

or

Arithmetic
mathematics

Examples of numbers that produce such Forstraight-line example: graphs are: 12345678 or 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 Notice that the numbers grow by repeated additions of a like amount and produce a straight-line graph

air eth met eek

We humans have a tendency to interpret our world using an ordinary, everyday form of mathematics

This routine, everyday Linear mathematics tends to work well in many everyday consumer settings

6 12 18 24 30

and behaves in a comfortable and predictable way

But a far more powerful,

MISLEADING,
counterintuitive and dangerous type of non-linear mathematics exists

known as

Exponential mathematics

Exponential
mathematics plays powerful roles in natural systems in biology, physics, and chemistry as well as in population systems and Earths environment

We will introduce them using one-celled marine organisms known as dinoflagellates

The prefix dino means terrible

Dinoflagellates
commonly undergo population explosions that result in massive fish-kills known as

red-tides

The example which we will use has been modified from an example involving bacteria in a petri dish used by Dr. Bartlett

Population explosions of red-tide dinoflagellates in marine systems constitute one of natures quintessential examples

of population explosion / environment calamities in natural systems

dinoflagellate

In this presentation we modify Dr. Bartletts bacterial example and substitute instead marine dinoflagellate cells in a bottle of salt water

Each dinoflagellate cell is so small that it cannot be seen without using a microscope

At concentrations of one million cells per liter

their wastes cause fish-kills known as red-tides

Their poisonous wastes are known as brevetoxins

Unlike humans, however, dinoflagellates confine themselves to production of their biological, cellular, and metabolic wastes In our case, however, we

supplement
our biological wastes with an ongoing daily avalanche of industrial and societal wastes
in a way that is completely unprecedented in the history of life on earth

We will envision an imaginary dinoflagellate species in which each cell divides once every 60 seconds

producing two daughter cells

Suppose that we next begin with an empty bottle of salt water like the one shown here

Suppose that we begin with an empty bottle of salt water like the one shown here

10:00
and we place one microscopic dinoflagellate cell in the bottle at exactly 10:00 a.m.

10:00
Remember that actual dinoflagellate cells are so small that they can only be seen using a microscope

And also remember that each cell in our imaginary species divides once each minute (like this)

60 seconds another 60 seconds

So that this pattern results in twice as many cells every 60 seconds

A continuation of this pattern would give us 64 cells in just six minutes

(six doublings)

1 2 4 8 16
then

32 64 128 256 etc

and 256 cells in just nine doublings

(in our example, nine minutes)

1 2 4 8 16
then

32 64 128 256 etc

We say that EXPONENTIAL progressions are extremely powerful

because initially-small numbers can pile up to become very, very LARGE numbers in unexpectedly short periods of time

Numbers in an exponential progression grow larger by repeated multiplications by like amounts

Summary of Key Points So Far

6 12 18 24 30

In linear mathematics, numbers grow by repeated additions of like amounts, and change in an obvious, predictable, and readilyapparent ways that produce characteristic straight-line graphs

Summary of Key Points So Far

In Exponential mathematics, numbers grow by repeated multiplications by like amounts, and can be very powerful because initially-small numbers can become extremely large numbers in unexpectedly short periods of time and produce characteristic J-curves when they are graphed

J-curve

1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048

Summary of Key Points So Far

Finally, we have begun a mental experiment by imagining a single dinoflagellate cell in a bottle of salt water at 10:00 a.m.

and we have chosen an imaginary species whose cells methodically divide every 60 seconds so that they double their numbers each minute

So let us return to our experiment with imaginary dinoflagellate cells that double their numbers every 60 seconds

10:00
Which means that their population is growing

exponentially

1 2 4 8 16
then

32 64 128 256 etc

Suppose that we now leave our bottle and return to check on conditions one hour later
at 11:00 a.m.

11:00

11:00

11:00
First, the jar is completely full

11:00
First, the jar is completely full

and secondly, all the dinoflagellate cells are dead

So here is the question

So here is the question

So here is the question

What is your answer?

If we base our answer on math from our early schooling, our automatic, first-impulse response is to imagine that the jar must be half-full at 10:30 a.m.

If we base our answer on math from our early schooling, our automatic, first-impulse response is to imagine that the jar must be half-full at 10:30 a.m.

If we employ ordinary arithmetic, then if the bottle is completely filled at eleven a.m., then it is easy to imagine that it should logically be half-full at the halfway point - 10:30
In fact, this would be the correct answer, but only if the dinoflagellate population were growing arithmetically

If we employ ordinary arithmetic, then if the bottle is completely filled at eleven a.m., then it is easy to imagine that it should logically be half-full at the halfway point - 10:30
In fact, this would be the correct answer, but only if the dinoflagellate population were growing arithmetically

With a number sequence that is growing exponentially, however (which our dinoflagellates are doing) the 10:30 answer is incorrect

Since the dinoflagellates in our experiment are increasing exponentially

10:59

their container will be half-full at 10:59

Since the dinoflagellates in our experiment are increasing exponentially

10:59
59 minutes

their container will be half-full at 10:59

If the jar is half-full at 10:59

and its occupants all divide so that their numbers double over the next 60 seconds,

10:59
then they will completely fill their container by 11:00 a.m.

If the jar is half-full at 10:59

One minute

and its occupants all divide so that their numbers double over the next 60 seconds,

then they will completely fill their container by 11:00 a.m.

One minute

This reveals an unsettling aspect of exponential number sequences that confronts this dinoflagellate population

One minute

This reveals an unsettling aspect of exponential number sequences that confronts this dinoflagellate population

10:59

for the disaster that awaits them

59 minutes

lies just one doubling

(in this case, 60 seconds)

away

because the dinoflagellate numbers are growing exponentially (instead of arithmetically)

10:59

disaster in their container is just one minute away

10:59

59 minutes

One minute

Although conditions in the half-empty container seem to be relatively innocuous,

59 minutes

10:59

59 minutes

59 minutes

10:59

10:59

59 minutes

One minute

10:59

10:59

59 minutes

59 minutes

10:59

10:59

59 minutes

One minute

10:59

10:59

59 minutes

59 minutes

10:59

10:59

Summary of Key Point just seen

If a population attempts an arithmetic interpretation of events that are being governed by an exponential pattern of progression,

the error will blind them to both the degree and the proximity of the catastrophe that is about to overtake them

Additional insights can also be explored

For example
Many of the dinoflagellates make a mistaken assessment of their condition So far, we have been dividing for 59 minutes, and look, our jar is still only half-full

For example
Many of the dinoflagellates make a mistaken assessment of their condition So far, we have been dividing for 59 minutes, and look, our jar is still only half-full

Which causes them to mistakenly suppose that there is no immediate crisis that demands their attention

For example
Many of the dinoflagellates make a mistaken assessment of their condition So far, we have been dividing for 59 minutes, and look, our jar is still only half-full

They then mistakenly suppose that there is no immediate crisis that demands their attention because past linear experience causes them to imagine that they still have 59 additional minutes available before they need to worry about a true calamity

Such analyses, however, DONT WORK with exponential numbers that are doubling again and again

An entire lifetime of linear reasoning prompts them to imagine that they have ANOTHER 59 minutes before having to face a TRUE calamity

An entire lifetime of linear reasoning prompts them to imagine that they have ANOTHER 59 minutes before having to face a TRUE calamity

However, because their problem is being governed by an exponential progression, their confrontation with calamity is about to hammer them

right now

Summary of Key Point as just seen

Analyses that work well with everyday linear mathematics

DO NOT WORK
with numbers that grow in exponential or non-linear fashion

Further insights

Answer:

10:58

Answer:

10:58

Why?
Because they will double their numbers over the next 60 seconds so that the container will be half - full at 10:59

and then they will double again so that they completely fill their container by 11:00 a.m.

Answer:

10:58

Notice that with only two more minutes (doublings) before calamity

the container in which the dinoflagellates live

is

75%

empty

Answer:

10:57

Answer:

10:57

In the next one-minute, they will double their numbers so that the container will be one-quarter full at 10:58 and then they will double again to half-fill the bottle by 10:59

And finally, as they double one more time, exponential reality finally smashes them by 11:00 a.m.

Answer:

10:57

Notice that with just three more minutes (doublings) to go before disaster the dinoflagellates reside in a container that

87.5%

empty

Just because theres space, doesnt mean theyre safe

87.5%

empty

At 10:55 a.m., with only five minutes left until disaster,

the container will be 1/32 nd full, and 98% empty

It is difficult to accept that danger is present when so much empty volume abounds

At 10:55 a.m., with only five minutes left until disaster,

the container will be 1/32 nd full, and 98% empty

It is difficult to accept that danger is present when so much empty volume abounds

Thus, if the chief mathematics that we internalize and use to interpret the world involves linear number sequences, then it is completely impossible to see an oncoming disaster

Notice that attempting to employ everyday linear mathematics

and making suppositions based upon vast amounts of open-space

invites incorrect and calamitous assessments

If we have a sentient species of dinoflagellates, when will they realize that they have a problem?

The answer is:

If they try to interpret their world using an arithmetic mindset, their realization will come

If we have a sentient species of dinoflagellates, when will they realize that they have a problem?

The answer is:

If they try to interpret their world using an arithmetic mindset, their realization will come

...too late

There are still more counterintuitive implications

Since we are dealing with an imaginary species of dinoflagellates anyway

let us suppose that they happen to be technologically advanced

And, exploring the distant laboratory around them they are fortunate to discover three additional bottles

And, exploring the distant laboratory around them they are fortunate to discover three additional bottles

And, exploring the distant laboratory around them they are fortunate to discover three additional bottles

And, exploring the distant laboratory around them they are fortunate to discover three additional bottles

And, exploring the distant laboratory around them they are fortunate to discover three additional bottles

and all three happen to be exactly identical to their home bottle and perfect for immediate dinoflagellate occupancy

How much additional time do they buy themselves?

How much additional time do they buy themselves?

Three more hours?

Since it took one hour to fill the first container, does discovery of three more containers buy the population three more hours?

Be careful!!!

Three more hours? Since it took one hour to fill the first container, does discovery of three more containers buy the population three more hours?

Does this lucky discovery buy them three more hours?

Does this lucky discovery buy them three more hours?

The answer is

NO

In this case, the fortunate discovery of three more bottles (perfectly suited for dinoflagellate occupancy) buys this population just two more minutes of additional time

In this case, the fortunate discovery of three more bottles (perfectly suited for dinoflagellate occupancy) buys this population just two more minutes of additional time

11:00

11:01

Since the original jar is filled at 11:00 if its occupants double their numbers over the next sixty seconds

11:00

11:01

Since the original jar is filled at 11:00 if its occupants double their numbers over the next sixty seconds

11:00

11:01

Since the original jar is filled at 11:00 if its occupants double their numbers over the next sixty seconds

11:00

11:01

Next, if the occupants of the two filled jars at 11:01 double their numbers over the next 60 seconds

11:01

Next, if the occupants of the two filled jars at 11:01 double their numbers over the next 60 seconds

In a way, we COULD end the presentation at this point

for the examples we have seen help demonstrate the power, importance, and the counterintuitive behavior

of exponential and non-linear mathematics

And our examples have also helped us see that even a sentient species of dinoflagellates could find itself in trouble if its mathematical understandings were limited to linear mathematics

In the real-world, however, such a population of dinoflagellates might actually find itself in even greater trouble,

for there is ADDITIONAL information that makes their quandary even more difficult to discern

Part Two
The open-space factor

Up until now, the examples in this presentation have permitted us to assume that the dinoflagellate calamity did not take place until

the dinoflagellates completelyFILLED their container

Up until now, the examples in this presentation have permitted us to assume that the dinoflagellate calamity did not take place until

the dinoflagellates completelyFILLED their container

However, in real-world populations, exponential growth can lead to calamity even in environments that visually appear to be almost entirely empty

For example, in real-world outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide

the deadly stages of the calamity do not take place

when the surrounding habitat becomes completely FILLED

Instead, real-world Population - environment calamities commonly occur in environments that visually appear to be

almost entirely empty

For examples of such real-world vast open-space calamities see our presentation two in this series

Population calamities in seemingly empty environments?

For example, red-tide dinoflagellates

(such as Karenia brevis)

poison the environment in which they reside

at densities of about one million or less cells per liter

In a one-liter sample of red-tide, for example,

the one million K. brevis cells per liter that make up the calamity physically-occupy less than 2/1000 ths
of

1%

of the one-liter sample in which they reside

Supporting mathematics is posted in our open-space delusion links and in the appendices of our PowerPoint: Population calamities in seemingly-empty environment

In other words, proportionally speaking, all one million K. brevis cells that are present in a one-liter sample if gathered together, would fit into the space proportionally represented by the white dot in this image

Supporting mathematics is posted in our open-space delusion links and in the appendices of our PowerPoint: Population calamities in seemingly-empty environment

Thus, in a real-world K. brevis red-tide the population calamity and its environmental effects both take place in an environment that remains

99.998% EMPTY

99.998% empty

Notice that, physically-speaking, the bottle is NOT filled

Thus we see a classical example of population calamity that culminates in massive die-offs

that physically unfolds in real-world surroundings

that are 99.998% unoccupied

and that visually appear to remain almost entirely

99.998% empty

empty

11:00

This means that when we envisioned a filled bottle at 11:00 a.m. we should have pictured the image shown here which is 99.998% empty because red-tide calamities actually occur when the population density becomes large enough to fit into the small white dot in this image

To reflect biological reality, our filled bottle should have looked like this

Notice how difficult it would be for even the brightest dinoflagellates to perceive that their species could induce bottle-wide calamity

at a time when 99.998% of their surroundings visually appeared to remain almost completely

11:00

empty

Remember the 59 minutes that were required to fill half the bottle and how it took only 60 seconds to completely fill the remaining 50% ?

11:00

To be proportionally-correct, our filled bottle should have been 99.998% empty at the time of the disaster

And , to be proportionally correct, the half-filled bottle

10:59

that had just 60 seconds left before disaster

would require a white dot that is just HALF the size of the white dot shown here

It is hard to accept that danger exists when so much empty-space seems to remain

If we were to run our mental experiment again using the small white dot
which represents 2/1000ths of one percent of the containers total volume

11:00

to designate the final calamitous and deadly outcomes at 11:00 a.m., then:

If we were to run our mental experiment again using the small white dot
which represents 2/1000ths of one percent of the containers total volume

11:00

to designate the final calamitous and deadly outcomes at 11:00 a.m., then:

10:59
10:58

A smaller white dot (1/1000th) would represent only one minute to go A still smaller white dot (5/10,000 ths) would represent only two minutes left

If we were to run our mental experiment again using the small white dot
which represents 2/1000ths of one percent of the containers total volume

11:00

to designate the final calamitous and deadly outcomes at 11:00 a.m., then:

10:59
10:58

A smaller white dot (1/1000th) would represent only one minute to go A still smaller white dot (5/10,000 ths) would represent only two minutes left An even smaller white dot ( 25/100,000ths of the total available volume) would represent a population with only three minutes to go

10:57

If we were to run our mental experiment again using the small white dot
which represents 2/1000ths of one percent of the containers total volume

11:00

to designate the final calamitous and deadly outcomes at 11:00 a.m., then:

10:59
10:58

A smaller white dot (1/1000th) would represent only one minute to go A still smaller white dot (5/10,000 ths) would represent only two minutes left An even smaller white dot ( 25/100,000ths of the total available volume) would represent a population with only three minutes to go An even smaller white dot (125/1,000,000 ths or 125 one-millionths) would represent a population with only four minutes remaining until calamity

10:57 10:56

And the dot in a 10:55 container would have to be

1/32 nd
the size of the dot in this image in order to reflect real-world red-tide conditions with just five doublings remaining before calamity

Notice how difficult it would be for even the very smartest dinoflagellates in the bottle to realize

how close their population is to disaster

So, in addition to being aware of the powerful, deceptive, counterintuitive, and misleading behavior of an exponential progression

we have to also be aware that real-world population disasters commonly occur in environments that visually appear to be almost entirely empty

Concluding

Graphs of the numbers making up an exponential progression exhibit a characteristic

J-curve

Graphs of the exponential fission events inside a detonating nuclear weapon produce

J-curve
graphs similar to this

And it should, perhaps, be a bit disquieting that a graph of human population growth
over the past 10,000 years seems to suggest the same characteristic

J-curve on steroids?

J-curve

How powerful is a J-curve?

Atomic tests at Alamogordo, New Mexico showed us quite precisely what J-curves can do

J-curve on steroids?

Two J-curves
A fact that should be a bit disquieting, perhaps?

Late-phase exponential Late-phase exponential

The mathematics of the

exponential

function is

powerful enough to flatten everything in its vicinity

J-curves
Misleading Deceptive Counterintuitive Most of the growth and damage occur towards the end of the progression By the time you realize it is about to hammer you, it has already hammered you

Other than that have a nice day

Exponential and non-linear growth in population systems

Presentation 5

This presentation is a courtesy of

The Wecskaop Project

It is entirely free for non-commercial use by scientists, students, and educators anywhere in the world

What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

Copyright 2011, The Wecskaop Project. All rights reserved.