Project Management

Two Biggest Projects of Humankind

1. Grand Unified Theory
2. Human Genome Project
Philadelphia Experiment 1
WWII 2
Cheiro 3
Pyramids 4
Amazon.com 5
Assault on Moon 6
Pathfinder, Pioneer 7
NDE, UFOs, Nessie 8
Zero Point Energy 9
Creation????///////////////????? 10
Goal is to insure
that objectives are achieved

on TIME
on BUDGET
 Project:

An endeavor with specific objectives &

multiple activities with defined
precedence relationships, to be
completed within a limited duration
Project Management

• Complex and numerous activities

• Unique - a one time set of events
• Finite - a begin and end date
• Limited resources and budget
• Many people involved
• Sequenced activities
• End product or service must result
 A Sample Project Organization

President

Human Quality
Sales Finance Engineering Production
Resources Control

Project 1 Project
Manager
Propulsion Test
Physiologist Technician
Engineer Engineer

Project 2 Project
Manager
Structural Inspection
Psychologist Technician
Engineer Technician
Project Management Activities
Planning Scheduling
● Objectives ● Project

● Resources activities
● Work ● Start &

break- end times

down ● Network

schedule
● Organizatio
Controlling
n ● Monitor,

compare, revise,
action
Project Planning, Scheduling, and
Controlling
Define S.M.A.R.T. Project
Objectives
Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Realistic
Time Bounded
Project Life Cycle
 Project Life Cycle

Time, Operational, Financial, Technological

Feasibility

Management
Planning
Concept
Execution

Termination
 The Four Cornerstones
of Project Management

Cost Schedule

Scope Quality
Project Management Tools
WBS
Gantt Chart
CPM
PERT
Crashing
Earned value Measurements
 A Gantt Chart
 Popular tool for project scheduling
 Graph with bar for representing the
time for each task
 Provides visual display of project
schedule
 Also shows slack for activities
 Amount of time activity can be
delayed without delaying project
 A Gantt ChartMonth
0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10
Activity
Design house
and obtain
financing
Lay foundation
Order and
receive
materials

Build house

Select paint

Select carpet

Finish work

1 3 5 7 9
Figure 6.2 Month
 CPM/PERT
 Critical Path Method (CPM)
 DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956)
 Deterministic task times
 Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)
 US Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton
 Developed to manage the Polaris missile
project
 Multiple task time estimates
CPM
 Event

1 2 3

Activity
Project Network for a House

3
Lay Dummy
foundation
2 0 Build Finish
3 1 house work
1 2 4 6 7
Design house Order and 3 1
and obtain receive 1 1
Select Select
financing materials paint carpet
5
Project Network for a House
E=5
3
Lay Dummy
foundation L=5
E=0 2 0 Build
Build Finish
Finish
E=3 E=5 house E=8 work E=9
3 1
1 2 4 6 7
Design house Order and 3 1
L=0 and obtain L=3receive L=5 1 1 L=8 L=9
materials Select Select
financing paint E=6 carpet
5
L=7
 Critical Path
 A path is a sequence of connected
activities running from start to end
node in network
 The critical path is the
path with the longest
duration in the network
 Project cannot be
completed in less than
the time of the critical
path
Project Network for a House
E=5
3
Lay Dummy
foundation L=5
E=0 2 0 Build
Build Finish
Finish
E=3 E=5 house E=8 work E=9
3 1
1 2 4 6 7
Design house Order and 3 1
L=0 and obtain L=3receive L=5 1 1 L=8 L=9
financing materials Select Select
paint E=6 carpet
5
L=7
The Critical 3
Lay
foundation
2
3

1
0
Dummy

Build
house
Finish
work

Path
1 2 4 6 7
3 1
Design house Order and
and obtain receive 1 1
Select Select
financing materials
paint carpet

• A: 1-2-3-4-6-7
3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months
• B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months
• C: 1-2-4-6-7
3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months
• D: 1-2-4-5-6-7
3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months
Computing
3
Lay Dummy
foundation
2 0 Build Finish
house work
3 1
1 2 4 6 7

Late Times
3 1
Design house Order and
and obtain receive 1 1
Select Select
financing materials
paint carpet

Early LF
and = 9 and
Late Start
67 months
Finish Times

 LS ( = LF) - t ( = 9 - 1 )= 8 months
ES = 3, EF = 5
LS67= 3, LF = 5 67 -3 ES = 5, EF = 5
67LS = 5, LF = 5
 LF56 = minimum 2 0 (LS
( ) = 8 months
5, LF = 8)
ES = 5, EF = 8
LS = 6
3 1 1
1 LS = LF 2 - t = 48 - 1 = 7 6 months 7
56 = 3 3
ES56
= 3, EF5=64
= 0, LF = 3 ) (LS = 4, LF = 5 )
(LSLF ( LS = 8, LF = 9)
ES = 0, EF ES = 8, EF = 9
1 1
24 = minimum (LS4) = min(5, 6)
= 5 months (LS = 6, LF = 7 )
ES = 5, EF = 6
5 (LS =7, LF = 8 )
ES = 6, EF = 7

 LS24 = LF24 - t24 = 5 - 1 = 4 months

Activity Slack
3
Lay Dummy
foundation
2 0 Build Finish
house work
3 1

Data
1 2 4 6 7
3 1
Design house Order and
and obtain receive 1 1
Select Select
financing materials
paint carpet

Activity LS ES LF EF Slacks
*1-2 0 0 3 3 0
*2-3 3 3 5 5 0
2-4 4 3 5 4 1
*3-4 5 5 5 5 0
4-5 6 5 7 6 1
*4-6 5 5 8 8 0
5-6 7 6 8 7 1
*6-7 8 8 9 9 0
* Critical path
PERT
 Probabilistic Time
Estimates
Reflect uncertainty of activity times
Beta distribution is used in PERT
 Probabilistic Time
Estimates
Reflect uncertainty of activity times
Beta distribution is used in PERT
a + 4m + b
Mean (expected time): t=
6
2
b-a
Variance: σ 2
=
6
where
a = optimistic estimate
m = most likely time estimate
b = pessimistic time estimate
Activity Estimates
2 6

1 3 5 7 9

4 8

TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) MEAN TIME VARIANCE

ACTIVITY a m b t ∑2
1-2 6 8 10 8 0.44
1-3 3 6 9 6 1.00
1-4 1 3 5 3 0.44
2-5 0 0 0 0 0.00
2-6 2 4 12 5 2.78
3-5 2 3 4 3 0.11
4-5 3 4 5 4 0.11
4-8 2 2 2 2 0.00
5-7 3 7 11 7 1.78
5-8 2 4 6 4 0.44
8-7 0 0 0 0 0.00
6-9 1 4 7 4 1.00
7-9 1 10 13 9 4.00
Southern Textile Company
d
2 6
Equipment testing
and modification
Equipment Final
a e Dummy
installation l debugging

System
development f i m
1 3 5 7 9
b Manual System System
Testing Training changeover

Position c Job g System j k Dummy

recruiting training Testing

h
4 8
Orientation
Example 6.1
 2 6

Early and Late Times 1 3

4
5

8
7 9

For Activity 1-2

a = 6, m = 8, b = 10

a + 4m + b 6 + 4(8) + 10
t= = = 8 weeks
6 6
2 2
b-a 10 - 6 4
σ 2
= = = week
6 6 9
 2 6

Early and Late Times 1 3

4
5

8
7 9

ACTIVITY t ∑2 ES EF LS LF S
1-2 8 0.44 0 8 1 9 1
1-3 6 1.00 0 6 0 6 0
1-4 3 0.44 0 3 2 5 2
2-5 0 0.00 8 8 9 9 1
2-6 5 2.78 8 13 16 21 8
3-5 3 0.11 6 9 6 9 0
4-5 4 0.11 3 7 5 9 2
4-8 2 0.00 3 5 14 16 11
5-7 7 1.78 9 16 9 16 0
5-8 4 0.44 9 13 12 16 3
7-8 0 0.00 13 13 16 16 3
6-9 4 1.00 13 17 21 25 8
7-9 9 4.00 16 25 16 25 0
Southern Textile Company
ES = 8, EF = 13
LS = 16, LF = 21
2 5
6
ES = 0, EF = 8 ES = 8, EF = 8 ES = 13, EF = 17
LS = 1, LF = 9 LS = 9, LF = 9 LS = 21, LF = 25

8 0 4

ES = 0, EF = 6 ES = 6, EF = 9 ES = 9, EF = 16
LS = 0, LF = 6 LS = 6, LF = 9 LS = 9, LF = 16 9
1 3 5 7 9
6 3 7 ES = 16, EF = 25
LS = 21, LF = 25
ES = 3, EF = 7
LS = 5, LF = 9 4 0
ES = 0, EF = 3 3 ES = 9, EF = 13 ES = 13, EF = 13
LS = 2, LF = 5 LS = 12, LF = 16 LS = 16, LF = 16

2
4 8
ES = 3, EF = 5
LS = 14, LF = 16 Example 6.1
Southern Textile Company
ES = 8, EF = 13
LS = 16, LF = 21
2 5
6
ES = 0, EF = 8 ES = 8, EF = 8 ES = 13, EF = 17
LS = 1, LF = 9 LS = 9, LF = 9 LS = 21, LF = 25

8 0 4

ES = 0, EF = 6
LS = 0, LF = 6
Total project
ES = 6, EF =9
LS = 6, LF = 9
variance
ES = 9, EF = 16
LS = 9, LF = 16 9
1 3 5 7 9
6 3 7 ES = 16, EF = 25
σES = 3, EF==137σ
2 2
+
35 σ 57+
2
σ 2
79 +σ 2 = 21, LF = 25
LS
ES = 3, EF = 7
LS = 5, LF = 9 4 0
3
= 1.00 + 0.11 + 1.78 + 4.00
ES = 0, EF = 3 ES = 9, EF = 13 ES = 13, EF = 13
LS = 2, LF = 5 LS = 12, LF = 16 LS = 16, LF = 16
= 6.89 weeks
2
4 8
ES = 3, EF = 5
LS = 14, LF = 16 Example 6.1
 Probabilistic Network
Analysis
Determine probability that project is
completed within specified time
x-µ
Z= σ
where
µ = tp = project mean time
σ = project standard deviation
x = proposed project time
Z = number of standard deviations x
is from mean
 Normal Distribution Of
Project Time
Probability

Zσ

µ = tp x Time
Figure 6.12
Southern Textile Example
What is the probability that the project
is completed within 30 weeks?
 Southern Textile Example
What is the probability that the project
is completed within 30 weeks?
P(x ≤ 30 weeks)

µ = 25 x = 30 Time (weeks)

Example 6.2
 Southern Textile Example
What is the probability that the project
is completed within 30 weeks?
P(x ≤ 30 weeks) x-µ
σ 2
= 6.89 weeks Z= σ
σ = 6.89 30 - 25
= 2.62
σ = 2.62 weeks
= 1.91
µ = 25 x = 30 Time (weeks)

Example 6.2
 Southern Textile Example
What is the probability that the project
is completed within 30 weeks?
P(x ≤ 30 weeks) x-µ
σ 2
= 6.89 weeks Z= σ
σ = 6.89 30 - 25
= 2.62
σ = 2.62 weeks
= 1.91
µ = 25 x = 30 Time (weeks)

From Table, a Z score of 1.91

corresponds to a probability of 0.4719.
Thus P(30) = 0.4719 + 0.5000 = 0.9719
Example 6.2
 Southern Textile Example
What is the probability that the project
is completed within 22 weeks?
P(x ≤ 22 weeks)

0.3729

x = 22 µ = 25 Time (weeks)

Example 6.3
 Southern Textile Example
What is the probability that the project
is completed within 22 weeks?
x-µ
P(x ≤ 22 weeks) σ 2
= 6.89 weeks Z= σ
σ = 6.89 22 - 25
0.3729 = 2.62
σ = 2.62 weeks
= -1.14
x = 22 µ = 25 Time (weeks)

Example 6.3
 Southern Textile Example
What is the probability that the project
is completed within 22 weeks?
x-µ
P(x ≤ 22 weeks) σ 2
= 6.89 weeks Z= σ
σ = 6.89 22 - 25
0.3729 = 2.62
σ = 2.62 weeks
= -1.14
x = 22 µ = 25 Time (weeks)

From Table A.1, a Z score of -1.14

corresponds to a probability of 0.3729.
Thus P(22) = 0.5000 - 0.3729 = 0.1271
Example 6.3