Robert Bosch Corporation GS-DS North America

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 Shainin Overview

Traditional Problem Solving

What is the traditional way we solve problems?

Automotive Powertrain Division

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 Shainin Overview

What Behavior are we modeling with fishbone?

Capture as many Xs as possible

Generates copious amounts of work
Large draw on resources
Change and See approach

Automotive Powertrain Division

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 Shainin Overview

Traditional Problem Solving

Action Action Action Action Action Action Action Action

Action Action Action Action

Possible Possible Possible Possible

Cause Cause Cause Cause

Problem
Automotive Powertrain Division
4 Internal | AP/AdP/QMM6 | 3/13/2006 | 2006 Robert Bosch Corporation and affiliates. All rights reserved.
 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

The Balance Game

The Setup You have eight ball bearings, identical in appearance, but
one is lighter than all the others.

The Challenge Using the balance scale, determine which bearing is

the odd ball.

The Catch each time you use the balance, it costs $5000.00

The team that can find the odd ball in the fewest number of steps will
win.

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

What Kind Of Strategy Do You Want To

Be Remembered For?

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Problem Solving Strategies

Experience Based
I have seen this problem before.

Math Based
I can experiment and create models.

Evidence Based
I can exploit differences between good and bad.

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 9
Net Worth (billions)

0
10
20
30
40
50
60

Bill Gates
Warren Buffet
Carlos Helu
Ingvar Kamprad
Lakshmi Mittal
Sheldon Adelson
Bernard Adelson
Amancio Ortega
Li Ka-Shing
David Thompson
Lawrence Ellison
Liliane Bettencourt
Alwaleed Alsaud
Shainin Overview Pareto Principle

Mukesh Ambani
Roman Abramovich

of industrial property rights. We reserve all rights of disposal such as copying and passing on to third parties.
Stefan Persson
Anil Ambani

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Paul Allen
Theo Albrecht
Azim Premji
Worlds Richest People 2006 (Forbes Magazine)

Lee Shau Kee

Jim Walton
Christy Walton
Robson Walton
Alice Walton
Helen Walton
 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Adding Variation
Consider these two mating parts.

What is the nominal height (A) of

the assembled parts?

A = 30 +10 = 40

How much variation (B) would

there be in the assembled parts?

B=4+2=6?

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Adding Variation
Variation adds as the sum of
squares.

To get the overall variation, we

have to take the square root of the
sum of the squares.

B (4) 2 (2) 2 4.5

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Adding Variation
What would be the effect of
removing one unit of variation from
the smaller component?

B (4) (1) 4.1 2 2

From the larger component?

B (3) (2) 3.6 2 2

More than twice the reduction

in overall variation!

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Strategy
There are two types of evidence based technical problems

Physics Problems Geometry Problems

Malfunction Event Destructive Event Defect Strategy Property Strategy Feature Strategy
Energy/Time Energy/Time Location Measurement Measurement
(Comp. Search) (Event /Energy Transform) (Concentration Diagram) (Multi-vari) (Multi-vari)
(4 Box Energy)
Flow Breakage Cracks Strength Length
Noise Chips Hardness Diameter
Vibration Scratches

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 Shainin Overview

Y to X Thinking

Y = f(x1, x2, x)

No Guessing!
Work the Problem from Outputs (Y) to Inputs (X)
Eliminate where the problem isnt
All inputs are not equal
Find the largest and kill it first
There is a Red X that drives the Green Y

Automotive Powertrain Division

14 Internal | AP/AdP/QMM6 | 3/13/2006 | 2006 Robert Bosch Corporation and affiliates. All rights reserved.
 Shainin Overview

Terms / Definitions

Green Y
The measured result of the process.
Coil Resistance (W)
Pull Strength (N)
Cracked substrates

Red X
The largest contributor to the Green Y variation.
Number of coil turns
Weld energy
Contact tooling dimension

BOB and WOW

Process
Best of the Best and Worst of the Worst Distribution
Extremes of Green Y variation
BOB WOW

Automotive Powertrain Division

15 Internal | AP/AdP/QMM6 | 3/13/2006 | 2006 Robert Bosch Corporation and affiliates. All rights reserved.
 Definition of Converging

Once you eliminate the impossible,

whatever remains, no matter how
improbable, must be the truth

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

When you mislay a certain

something,
keep your cool, and don't get hot,
calculatus eliminatus is the best
friend that you've got,
calculatus eliminatus always helps
an awful lot,
the way to find a missing
something is to find out
where it's not

Dr. Seuss

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

PROBLEM

Measurement Demonstrated proof that the gage can tell

Real Problem good from bad.
Problem

Cause Lives in Cause Lives in Demonstrated proof that the problem

lives in parts not process
Parts Process

1st Half of 2nd Half of Demonstrated proof that the problem

lives in 1st half of the parts.
Parts Parts

Demonstrated proof that the problem

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 lives in part 2.

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Focus Business Problem Technical Project

Approach Technical Project Green Y

Converge Green Y Red X Candidate

Test Red X Candidate Confirmed Red X

Understand Confirmed Red X Controlled Red X

Apply Controlled Red X Green Y Run Chart

Leverage Green Y Run Chart Lessons learned

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Focused Resources Business Problem

Strategic and operational

planning
Management Responsibility

Convert Business
Challenges to Projects
Clear, measurable goals
Leverage similar events

Assigned Leader and

Sponsor
Technical Project

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Approach Technical Project

Develop Green Y
Team Leader Responsibility

Understand physical nature

of Green Y

Establish effective
measurement system

Develop strategy
Green Y

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Converge Green Y

Leverage BOB / WOW

contrast
Team Leader Responsibility

Characterize the Green Y

Execute Strategy

Converge on the Red X

Dictionary Game Thinking
Red X Candidate

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Test Red X Candidate

Put Red X on Trial

Management assesses risk
Team executes

Turn Green Y On and Off

Confirm Red X drives

Green Y statistically

Confirmed Red X

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Understand Confirmed Red X

Optimize Red X to
Green Y Relationship
Team Leader Responsibility

Convert customer need to

Red X limits

Optimize Interactions

Controlled Red X

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Apply Controlled Red X

Implement Corrective Actions

Team Leader Responsibility

Eliminate / Control Red

Verify Corrective Actions

Proceduralized Corrective
Actions

Green Y Run Chart

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

Leverage Green Y Run Chart

Apply Strategies to Like

Challenges
Management / Team Leader
Responsibility

Define Read Across

Capture Project Knowledge

Lessons Learned

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 Shainin Certification Structure

Apprentice: Tool User

Attend Problem Solving For Manufacturing Class.
Actively Participate on Project Team Which Identifies and Eliminates a Red
X.

Journeyman: Problem Solver

Attend Advanced Problem Solving For Manufacturing.
Attend Designed Experiments For Problem Solving.
Set Strategy And Lead Second Project Which Identifies and Eliminates a
Red X. You Must Lead One of the Two.
Complete Interview.

Master:
Solve Three Additional Projects As the Leader.
Attend Master Class.
Coach Two People to Journeyman.
Complete Interview.

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 Shainin Overview Convergent Method

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 AdP Candidate Selection Process

RT5 Manager Identifies Potential Program

Candidate Enrolled in Apprentice Class
Candidate

Candidate Assigned as Team Lead or

Candidate Completes Requirements for
Member on New Reactive Project.
Apprentice Certification
Sponsor and Coach also assigned.

Candidate
Candidate Evaluated by Coach and RT5
Coached using
Manager for Approval to Continue to
FACTUAL
Journeyman Certification
modules

Candidate Evaluated By Coach and RT5 Candidate Enrolled in Journeyman

Manager Classes

Candidate Recommended for Reactive Candidate Completes Requirements for

Problem Solving Path Journeyman Certification

AP/AdP/QMM6
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 Shainin Impact & Results in AdP 2000 - 2005
AdP RT5 Program
Return on Investment
70

66.5

60

50
AdP RT5 Program

Return on Investment
Project Hard Savings
$7.00 40

$6.00 30
$6.01

23.6 23.3 24
$5.00 20 22.4
21.2
Hard Savings ($Millions)

19.5

$4.43
$4.00 $4.14 10

$3.00 3.8
0
$2.86 $2.92 $2.87
$2.73 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
$2.00

$1.00 AdP RT5 Program

Number of Projects Closed
50
$0.50
$0.00
45
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
44
Year
40 41

38
35 37

Number of Projects
30 32

29
25

20
20

15

2005 RT5 Manager and 10

RT5 Executive Coaching 0

4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

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 Shainin Impact & Results 2007

AdP RT5 Actual Cumulative Savings

2007 Monthly
$12.00
Millions

Avoidance Cost (Month)

Hard Savings (Month)
Goal

$10.00

$8.00 $3.78 $3.78 $3.78 $3.78

Project Savings [$]

$3.78 $3.78

$6.00

$3.60
$4.00
$2.45

$6.01 $6.01 $6.01 $6.01

$5.19 $5.19

$2.00 $2.09
$2.04
$2.04
$2.37 $2.62
$1.34
$1.04 $1.00
$0.60 $0.85
$0.00 $0.10 $0.18
May-07

Aug-07

Nov-07

YTD
Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Oct-07
Sep-07

Dec-07
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