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Anthropogenic global

environmental change
risks and uncertainties
Stockholm Seminar Prof. Johan Rockstrm
8th June 2010 Stockholm Resilience Centre
KVA Stockholm Environment Institute
5

0
Tipping elements in the Earth system
PNAS Special Feature released December 2009

PNAS Special Feature:


Tipping elements in the Earth
System, Jan 2010, vol 106 (49)
IPCC AR4
2007
Global Mean Temperature Trend
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
TAR 20-70 cm (9-88 cm) high uncertainty
AR4 18-59 cm (18-79 cm) larger cannot be excluded
Our understanding of these
processes is limited. As a result,
they are not included in current
ice sheet models and there is no
consensus as to how quickly they
could cause sea level to rise.
Note that these uncertainties
are essentially one sided. That
is, they could lead to
substantially more rapid rate of
sea-level rise but they could not
lead to a significantly slower
rate.....
Church et al., 2008. Sea-level rise
A post IPCC
SOURCES ESTIMATES SOURCE ASSUMPTIONS
Thermal 0.4-0.9 in 300 yrs IPCC TAR (2X Weakening of
Expansion ppm)) thermohaline
circulation
Thermal
Mountain Glaciers 0.4Expansion
m (80 % loss) 0.5 m sea level
rise held (IPCC
Greenland TAR)
Greenland Artic 0.9 m 1.8 m in IPCC TAR 0.9 m Rapid melting not
Antarctica
300 yrs (local warming 5.5 included in IPCC
C) estimate

Antarctica WAIS 1-2 m (estimate including Stable ice sheet


disintegration) models inadquate
EAIS stable
Total 2.7 5.1 m 2300 1-1.7 m/century Now 3 cm/decade
for 0.6 C warming.
3 C warming = 1.4
m/century
S. Rahmstorf and C. Jger, 2007
Uncertain uncertainty

3 C 6 C

ref: Baer and Mastrandrea


11
(2006)
IPCC AR4 Scenarios
What does a 2 C limit mean?

2 C warming corresponds to a barrier of 2.5 Wm-2 of radient


energy added by humans.

This corresponds to 441 ppm CO2eq (range ~350-550 ppm)

We have already added 3 Wm-2 of radiant energy. CO2 (1.65


Wm-2) and non-CO2 GHGs (1.35 Wm-2)

(non-CO2 GHGs are methane (CH4); nitrous oxide (N2O); halocarbons (HCs) which include
CFCs, HCFCs, and HFCs; and tropospheric ozone (O3).
Why have we only seen ~0.7 C
warming so far?
~0.5 C stored in oceans (20 %)

~ 1.2 C masked by cooling aerosols (50 %)

possibly combined with

a climate sensitivity at the lower end of the climate science


analyses
(but, even if climate sensitivity is 50 % lower than the median
sensitivity, the added energy corresponds to ~1.2 C)
Masking and avenues to fast track mitigation

Ramanathan and Xu, 2010. PNAS, 107 (18) : 8055 - 8062


Climate Change Ozone depletion
< 350 ppm CO2 < 1W m2 < 5 % of Pre-Industrial 290 DU
(350 500 ppm CO2 ; (5 - 10%)
1-1.5 W m2)
Biogeochemical Atmospheric
loading: Global Aerosol Loading
N & P Cycles To be determined
Limit industrial
fixation of N2 to 35
Tg N yr-1(25 % of
natural fixation)
(25%-35%)
Planetary Ocean acidification
Aragonite saturation
P < 10 natural ratio > 80 % above pre-
weathering inflow to Boundaries industrial levels
(> 80% - > 70 %)
Oceans
(10 100)

Rate of Global Freshwater Use


Biodiversity Loss <4000 km3/yr
< 10 E/MSY (4000 6000 km3/yr)
(< 10 - < 1000 Land System
E/MSY) Change Chemical Pollution
15 % of land Plastics, Endocrine Desruptors,
under crops Nuclear Waste Emitted globally
(15-20%) To be determined
16
CFCs/Tropospheric O3 Terrestrial and
14 Agric/others N2O Marine Carbon
12 Agric/waste/energy CH4 sinks
10 10
Land CO2
9
8 8

Gt Carbon/yr
7 ocean
6 Fossil CO2 6
5
land
4 4
3
2 2
1
0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
CO2 from fossil fuels and other sources
CO2 from land use change
CH4 from agriculture, waste and energy
N2O from agriculture and others Adapted from Canadell et al., 2007
F gases
Ocean acidification
Challenge to marine biodiversity and ability of oceans to
function as sink of CO2

Turley et al 2006

Southern Ocean and Arctic


ocean projected to become
corrosive to aragonite by
2030-2060
From R. Buddemeier, based on Kleypas et al. 1999
Global emission pathways in
compliance with a 2 C guardrail

(WBGU 2009)

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