Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
NOT exceptional
Khalil Karami
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoritical Physics, University of Cambridge, UK
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
The Butterfly Effect
Edward Lorenz
MIT mathematician-meteorologist
Pioneer of chaos theory
1917-2008
22 October
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Martin Hoerling NOAA scientist (The New York Times 28 October 2012):
Global warming causes more frequent and stronger storms.
IPCC: from 1988-2014: Climate is changing and human is
responsible for global warming.
4 :1392
: 2100
.
22 :1394 :
70 .
2 :1394
30 .
Global warming increases extremes of intense precipitation, rainfall and snowfall events
producing more runoff over Europe and other mid-latitude regions.
Storm-Track Dynamics
The monitoring systems in U.S. submarines do not provide an alert until CO2 levels
reach 8,000 ppm.
The so-called
human-induced
global warming
Richard B. Alley, The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and our
Future, Princton U. Press,
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
Princton, 2002.
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Modern atmospheric observations
and Data Collection
ocean circulation
Held. I., (2005):The Gap Between Simulation and Understanding in Climate Modeling, AMS.
Model Organism
w
mass u 2 0
z
p
0 g ; f (T ,s )
z
energy T
u 3 T Q 0 (T )
t
surface heating
salinity s s0
u 3 s (E P ) (s)
t 0 z 0
freshwater flux
How reliable are the current generation of climate
models?
2 :1394
30 .
How accurate are the model predictions?
Khalil Karami
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, KIT, Germany
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoritical Physics, University of Cambridge, UK
Thanks
For
Listening
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
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