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Problem Statement
Early detection of crop diseases still remains a challenge for farmers
in Kenya. This is because majority of the agricultural extension officer
lack knowledge in plant disease diagnosis and are prone to prescribe
ineffective management options to farmers. (Otipa, et al., 2015)
According to (Ghaiwat & Arora, 2014) plant disease diagnosis is very
essential at an earlier stage in order to cure and control them. The
authors further note that human vision systems are mostly used to
identify crop diseases. Such techniques are prone to inaccuracy as
diagnosis of the diseases are based on the perception and experiences
of the farmer or agricultural extension worker.
Research Objectives
i. To find out the challenges associated with early crop disease
detection
ii. To investigate the problems associated with the current methods
applied in the prediction of potato diseases.
iii. To review the existing models, mobile applications, techniques
and architectures for disease identification and prediction in
crops
iv. To develop a model for potato late blight disease prediction
v. To validate the model
Research Questions
i. What are the challenges are associated with early
detection of crop diseases?
ii. What problems are associated with the current methods
applied in prediction of potato diseases?
iii. What are the existing models, mobile applications and
architectures used for crop disease prediction?
iv. How will the prediction based model be designed?
v. How will the prediction based model be validated?
Justification
Existing systems for forecasting the disease mostly rely on visual
based image processing systems. The limitation of such systems is
that they can only be utilized when symptoms appear on a plant, thus
such type of systems are unable to assist farmers in treating
diseases at an early stage. (Sarika & Sanjeev, 2014)
According to (Soon , Yong , Kyu , Sung, & Eun Woo , 2010), disease
forecasts play an important role in determining when to use
pesticides. They mention that a weather detection, monitoring and
early warning system can provide reliable and timely information to
the farmers to deal with weather and climate variability and changes.
Scope
The scope of this study is limited to small holder farming
systems in Kenya more specifically to those practicing potato
farming.
The study will lay its focus on use of soil ph., soil temperature
and soil moisture for real time monitoring and prediction of
the occurrence of late blight of potato disease. These input
readings will be used to train artificial agent such as Rapid
miner to deduce risk of late blight disease infection and offer
advice on how to mitigate and control the situation.
(Phytophtho
ra infestans)
Potato
Late blight of
potato Disease
Author
(Maina,
2016)
(Sandika ,
Bhushan ,
Bir , & Mehi,
2014)
Title
Related works
Vision-Based
Model for
Maize Leaf
Disease
Identification
Severity
Identification
of Potato Late
Blight Disease
from Crop
Images
Captured
under
Uncontrolled
Working Principles
Weaknesses
utilized
artificial
neural
network in identifying maize
leaf disease by implementing
back
propagation
learning
algorithm. model utilizes a
smartphone camera to take an
image a plant after which pixels
are extracted and used as input
to
determine
a
particular
disease
Related works
Author
Title
Working Principles
Weaknesses
(Vidita , Jignesh,
& Chetan , 2013)
The authors developed a weather based plant Real time aspect of crop and farm
disease forecasting framework using fuzzy logic. variable monitoring
(Divya,
Manjunath, &
Ravindra, 2014)
A Study on
Developing Analytical
Model for Groundnut
Pest Management
using Data Mining
Techniques
(Mayur, Mayur,
Akshay, &
Sachin, 2016)
Agricultural Applications
Author
Title
Principles
Weaknesses
Kilimo salama
(Shepherd, 2010)
Africa Soil
information services
The project aims at developing a practical, timely, costeffective, soil health surveillance service to map soil
conditions, providing a foundation for monitoring changes
and to provide options for improved soil management.
(Mulligan, 2015)
Farmdrive
Related Works
Author
Title
Principles
Weaknesses
(Arsenault, 2015)
Mbeguchoice
(David, 2010)
Esoko
Conceptual framework
Research Methodology
Research design
Applied
Research Site
Research instruments
Purposive sampling
Target
Potato Farmers
Research Design
Applied research design is proposed for this study. Applied
research is original investigation undertaken in order to
acquire new knowledge.
System Development
Methodology
In the development of the application, an Evolutionary rapid prototyping
software development approach will be used. Rapid application development
(RAD) is an object-oriented approach to systems development that includes a
method of development as well as software tools
System Development
Methodology
The objective of evolutionary prototyping is to deliver a
working system to end-users The development starts with
those requirements which are best understood.
Accelerated delivery of the system
Rapid delivery and deployment are sometimes
more
important than functionality or long-term
software
maintainability
User engagement with the system
Not only is the system more likely to meet user
requirements, they are more likely to commit to
the use
of the system
Research Instruments
Questionnaires, both open and closed ended, are sent to
the target population. Questionnaires are more
advantageous over other research instruments because
they are cheap and do not need as much effort from
the questioner as other research instruments.
Further, data collected is first hand and can thus be an
authentic source of research data.
Research Instruments
Interviews will be used to capture, firsthand the perspective
and views of the selected farmers. Structured interviews are
better given that they have a structured set of questions
which systematically builds up on the questions towards the
bigger picture.
Internet sources will be used to gather data on related
information to the researchers area of study. This will be
useful in identifying the gaps that would be filled in by the
research
Validation of Research
Instruments
The use of structured interviewing allows for the preparation of questions
prior to any interview to ensure that the desired information is
collected from the respondents. This research will be designed in a
way that it will enable the researcher to identify directly the
respondents to interview. The individuals with the highest probability of
giving the most accurate responses will be in most cases be considered.
Use of the Liker scaling measurement will enable the researcher to rank
the respondents opinions, regarding their perception of the prototype as
suggested by this research. This will enable the researcher the ability
to quantify the respondents' opinions using the scale.
Scales of Measurement
Before you begin your analysis, you must identify the level of measurement
associated with the quantitative data. The level of measurement can influence
the type of analysis you can use. There are four levels of measurement:
Nominal : Nominal data A nominal scale is one in which numbers are only
used as labels. For example, if we want to categorize male and female
respondents, we could use a nominal scale of 1 for male, and 2 for female, but
1 and 2 in this case do not represent any order or distance.
Ordinal: Ordinal data data has a logical order, but the differences between
values are not constant (for example, strongly agree, agree, disagree,
strongly disagree).
Scale of Measurement
Interval: data is continuous and has a logical order, data
has standardized differences between values, but no
natural zero
Example: Items measured on a Likert scale rank your
satisfaction on scale of 1-5.
1 = Very Dissatisfied,2 = Dissatisfied, 3 = Neutral,4 =
Satisfied,5 = Very satisfied
Data analysis
Likert Scales : A psychometric response scale primarily
used in questionnaires to obtain participants preferences
or degree of agreement with a statement or set of
statements.
2statistic (CHI): Chi-square is a statistical test commonly
used to compare observed data with data we would expect
to obtain according to a specific hypothesis.
Item
Research Requirements
Arduino Kit
Specification
Type
Hardware
Server
Machine learning
Rapid Miner
Testing Environment
Kaa Sandbox
Software
Activities
1.
2.
Proposed Dates
significance
3.
Literature Review
4.
5.
6.
Proposal Defense
7.
Data Collection
9.
Analysis
10.
11.
12.
References
Adams, M. L., Cook, S., & Corner, R. (2000). Managing Uncertainty in Site-Specific Management: What is the Best Model? Precision
Agriculture, 3954. doi:10.1023/A:1009984516714
Ahamed, A., Mahmood, N. T., Nazmul , H., Mohammad , T. K., Kallal, D., Faridur, R., & Rashedur, M. R. (2015). Applying Data Mining
Techniques to Predict Annual Yield of Major Crops and Recommend Planting Different Crops in Different Districts in Bangladesh. 2015
16th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/Distributed Computing
(SNPD), (pp. 1-6). Takamatsu. doi:10.1109/SNPD.2015.7176185
Apple, A., & Fry, W. E. (1983). Potato Late Blight Fact Sheet Page. Retrieved 11 15, 2016, from Cornell University:
http://vegetablemdonline.ppath.cornell.edu/factsheets/Potato_LateBlt1983.htm
Arsenault, C. (2015, June 10). New app to connect Kenyan farmers with climate-smart seeds. Retrieved from Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/food-africa-climate-idUSL5N0YW1W220150610
Campbell, C., & Madden, L. (1990). Introduction to plant disease epidemiology. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Questions