INTRODUCTION TO

SPC (Statistical Process Control)

HEIL
1

TRAINING AGENDA

HANDS ON LEARNING!!
Limitation of Inspection
Specification discussion
What is SPC?
Why SPC is a better?
How SPC works?
Control Chart
You may learn to like statistics.

FF EXERCISE
EXERCISE
IMAGINE FOR ONE BRIEF MOMENT THAT EACH OF THE ONE HUNDRED
AND FORTY-ONE WORDS OF THIS PARAGRAPH IS A SEPARATE
COMPONENT FORM A FIRST SHIFT RUN OF FOURTEEN-INCH
FLYWHEELS. YOU ARE ONE OF FIVE INSPECTORS PERFORMING THE
FINAL INSPECTION OF THSES FINSISHED COMPONENTS WHICH WERE
PRODUCED ON FOUR FAIRLY SMALL DIAL INDEX MACHINES THAT ARE
NOT BEING CONTROLLED BY THE USE OF STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES.
AS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM AN OPERATION OF THIS NATURE, THERE
ARE A NUMBER OF DEFECTIVES COMPONENTS BEING MADE. EACH
WORD THAT CONTAINS AN F REPRESENTS A DEFECTIVE COMPONENT.
HOW MANY OF THE DEFECTIVES ARE YOU ABLE TO FIND? CHECK AGAIN
AND INSPECT FOR THE PRESENTS OF F'S. WRITE YOUR FINAL COUNT
IN THE BOTTOM LEFT HAND CORNER OF THIS PAGE. THIS EXAMPLE
SHOULD GIVE YOU A FAIR IDEA OF HOW RELIABLE 100% INSPECTION
CAN BE.
3

INSPECTION
Draw sample

YE
S

Meets spec. ?

ACCEPT

How good was it?

Barely meet spec?

middle of spec?

Same as before?

N
O
REJECT

How bad was it?

Just outside spec?

Way out of spec?

Same as before?

INSPECTION
Lower Spec.

A
B
What's the difference between ball A and B?
Why is the spec there and not somewhere else?
What is the purpose of the spec?
5

Great!!!
I'm in spec.

SPECIFICATION

Hey!!!!!
But I'm in spec.

SPECIFICATION

TARGET
Every specification has a TARGET.
The upper and lower specification
is meant to serve as a
guide line. What you
really want is the stuff
that hits the TARGET.

SCREW SPECIFICATION
SCREW TOLERANCE = +/- .02"
UPPER SPEC = .27

TARGET= .25
LOWER SPEC = .23

NUT SPECIFICATION
NUT TOLERANCE = +/- .02"
UPPER SPEC = .28

TARGET= .26
LOWER SPEC = .24

10

COMBINED TOLERANCE
SCREW
UPPER SPEC = .27

SCREW = 26.8"

TARGET= .25
LOWER SPEC = .23

NUT
NUT = 24.8"

UPPER SPEC = .28

TARGET= .26
LOWER SPEC = .24

11

LEANRING 1
Meeting specification
is not enough
we need a way to
communicate more.
What ???

12

Ex
am
pl
e
Country X
10,000 Rs/Month

Average
Income

Country Y
11000 Rs/Month

Which country is ECONOMICALLY more stable ???

13

Country X
8000
12000
10000
9000
11000
Avg.

10000

Std dev.

1414

Country Y
46000
3000
1000
3000
2000
11000
17516
14

LEANRING 2
Meeting specification is not enough
we need a way to communicate
How close to target

How spread out the results were

15

What is SPC?
Statistical Process Control

A monitoring tool that let's us know when

a process is changing before products
become unacceptable

It is a prevention tool

Inspection = defect detection

SPC =detect process change
defect prevention

16

WHY SPC?
Inspection does not assure quality

inspection is too late, its after the fact

need to detect process change before

defectives are produced

Meeting specification does not go far

enough

17

SPC, how does it work

Quantitify the Mue and the Sigma of a
process and detects change from the
standard deviation by calculating the
control limit by estimating the Rbar over
d2 to estimate the inherent variation of a
process for a given alpha and beta risks.

Ooopps tough to understand

18

JUST KIDDING!
It is simple and easy to understand.
SPC quantifies
variability and allows
you to determine if a
process changed.

19

DISCUSSION ON VARIABILITY

First order

lower
spec.

size

Upper
spec.

20

Second order

lower
spec.

size

Upper
spec.

21

After 6 orders

lower
spec.

size

Upper
spec.

22

After 12 orders

lower
spec.

size

Upper
spec.

23

lower
spec.

size

Upper
spec.

Over the long run a pattern begins to develop. Notice

there is a large cluster in the middle. As further from
the middle you go, there are less and less
24

lower
spec.

size

Upper
spec.

If the source of the material is stable, over a long

time period, a bell like shaped curve will emerge
from the inspection. The Bell shape curve is also
commonly referred to as the Normal distribution
25

What is HITOGRAM?
Why we need it to understand?
What is this BELL shape and normal distribution?
Plot HISTOGRAM for following DATA
4.2
5.2
5.4
2.1
9
9.6
13
14
15
9.6

Data
12.4
14.8
18
17
19
15.5
2
5
7
10.1

6
7.8
11
11.8
9.4
10.8
10
11
10.1
8.8
26

LEANRING 3
CHARACTERISTICS OF A NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION
LOCATION

SPREAD:
The dispersion it is
usually expressed as
SIGMA

LOCATION:
The central tendency
it is usually
expressed as the
AVERAGE

SPREAD

27

Distribution Patterns

Saw tooth

Sharp Drop

Negatively Skewed

Twin Peak

Positively Skewed

Bell Shape

28

Average different
Spread same

29

Average same
Spread different

A
B

30

Average different
Spread different

31

LEANRING 4

sigma

SIGMA -measure of spread

32

+/-3 sigma

+/- 2 sigma

+/- 1 sigma

2%

14%

32%

32%

14%

2%

33

+/-3 sigma

99.73%
+/-2 sigma

96.45%
+/-1 sigma

64.25%

2%

14%

32%

32%

14%

2%

34

LEANRING 5
99.73%
+/-3 sigma

95.45%
+/- 2 sigma

68.26%
+/- 1 sigma

2.14%

13.6%

34.13%

34.13%

13.6%

2.14%
35

IF the upside-down bell curve could hold

100 gallons of water.....

2
14
32
gallons

64%
+/-1 sigma
+/-2 sigma 96%
+/-3 sigma 99.7%

36

LEANRING 6
Properties of a normal model curve :It is symmetrical , unimodel and bell shaped.
It is uniquely determined by the two parameters ,
namely mean and standard deviation.
In the family of normal curves smaller the standard
deviation , higher will be the peak.
If the original observations follow a normal model with
mean mu and std dev sigma then the averages of random
sample of size n drawn from this distribution will also
follow a normal distribution.
The mean of the new model is same as the original
model I.e mu but the standard deviation gets reduced to
37
(sigma)/root "n"

Sources of Variation
Common Cause

Special Cause
38

LEANRING 7
If only common cause of variation are present, the
output of a process forms a distribution that is
stable over time and is
PREDICTABLE.

PREDICTION

IM

E
39

SO WHAT?
That's great, we can make prediction based
on sigma, So what?
Once we know the sigma of a process then;
Process has not changed if it is inside +/- 3
sigma.
If outside +/- 3 sigma, process has changed

40

LEANRING 8
SINCE WE CAN NOT SAMPLE 100 UNITS TO
DETERMINE IF OUR MANUFACTURING PROCESS
HAS CHANGED WE NEED A QUICK EFFECTIVE
WAY TO MEASURE THE TWO ATTRIBUTE OF
A PROCESS; THE CENTER AND THE SPREAD
CENTER = AVERAGE
SPREAD = RANGE
= (MAXIMUM - MINIMUM)

Why Average ????

41

LEANRING 9

The Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem states that the mean

values of samples taken from ANY distribution
tend towards a normal distribution as the sample
size increases.
This computer demonstration provides convincing evidence of this surprising fact.
Thus, taking samples from a distribution and averaging the observations
within the samples effectively eliminates the effect of the underlying distribution,
however 'non-normal' it may be.
This demonstration works with two symmetrical distributions: one is triangular and
has some features in common with the normal distribution while the other is a 'V'shaped notch - almost the total opposite of the type of distributions we see in applied
statistics. Both distributions have a mean of 50.00. We can model these
distributions by supposing we have two packs containing cards numbered 1 - 99. The
first pack would have: One 1, two 2s .... fifty 50s, forty nine 51s, .... two 98s, and one
99 While the second would have:
Fifty 1s, forty nine 2s ... two 48s, one 50, two 51s, ..... fifty 99s
The computer draws cards according to these distributions for sample sizes of 1 (to
verify the concept of 'distribution'), 2, 5 and 10.
When the sample size is 1, we are really confirming that the data 'in the long run' will
behave like the distribution - which is in itself an important statistical lesson.
The case {Sample Size = 2} is particularly interesting. It is not easy to to 'outguess'
42
the computer and predict the shape of the lower curve; however, once the curve is
seen, it can be readily explained in terms of basic probability.

The Arithmetic mean :

Most of the time when we refer to the average of something
we are talking about arithmetic mean only. To find out the
arithmetic mean , we sum the values and divide by the number
of observation.
Advantages : it's a good measure of central tendency.It easily
understood by most people
Disadvantages :- Although the mean is reliable in that it
reflects all the values in the data set, it may also be affected by
extreme values that are not representative of the rest of the
data.
43

The Median :
The median is a single value from the data set that measures
the central item in the set of numbers.Half of the item lie
above this point and the other half lie below it.
We can find median even when our data are qualitative
descriptions.
For example we have five runs of the printing press the results
of which must be rated according to the sharpness of the
image.
Extremely sharp, very sharp, sharp slightly blurred, and very
blurred.
Mode :The mode is a value that is repeated most often in the data set.
Infect it is the value with highest frequency.
44

How was our process behaving

over time? Let's calculate the
average and range of each set
1
2
3
4
5
Average
Range

CONTROL CHART TEMPLATE

23
23
24
26
27

average = (23+23+24+26+27)/5
= 24.6

Range = 27 - 23
=4
45

CONTROL CHART TEMPLATE

1

range

average

2
3
4
5
avg
Min.
Max
Range

23 22 23 22
23 25 23 24
24 25 24 24
26 26 27 25
27 27 27 26
24.6 25.0 24.8 24.2

Plott the average and

the range on the control
chart template

Notice the center and the spread

of the process varies much like
when we looked at the histogram
46

LEANRING 9
If you thought of the control charts as a stretched out
slinky, it would look like a histogram if you collapsed
it. Since the control chart is nothing more than a
histogram expressed over time, what we said about
SIGMA applies to the control chart as well.
x-bar Chart
x
x xx
x xxx xxx
x xxx xxx x
x xxx xxx
x xx
x xx
xx
x xx

47

Reminder, what we said about sigma

IF the upsidedown bell curve could
hold 100 gallons of water.....
2
14
32
gallons

64%
+/-1 sigma
+/-2 sigma 96%
+/-3 sigma 99.7%

48

We can calculate the sigma of all the points in the

control charts and draw lines at +/- 3 sigma. Since
99.7% of the vaules are suppose to fit in the line
we can say that a process has changed if it one of
the points are outside the +/- 3 sigma lines. We
will call the +/-3 sigma lines the CONTROL LIMIT

xx
xxx
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxx
xxx
xx
xxx

+/- 3 sigma

49

HOW DO YOU CALCULATE CONTROL LIMITS?

In the past it was important for operators and auditors
to be able to calculate the control limit. Today, in most
manufacturing plants the computer calculates the
control limits and people interpret them.
This makes sense because computers are excellent
at calculating number. However, computers are not
too intelligent. They can not reason and make good
decisions. People are very capable of reasoning and
making good decision. However, people need good
information. SPC is a tool that converts process data to
information allowing people to focus on what they do best.

50

LEANRING 10
Control Limits for
Average and Range Chart
X =

X+X+X+X
1 2 3
n
n

R =

R+R+R+R
1 2 3
n
n

UCL

= X + A2R

UCL

= D4R

CL

=X

CL

=R

LCL

= X - A2R

LCL

= D3R

51

WE USE STATISTICS EVERYDAY

HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO GET TO WORK?

52

TYPES OF VARIABILITY
Common cause= normal, Inherent
Arrive work between 7:55 to 8:01due to number traffics lights
that you stopped at on your way to work.
Special cause = assignable
Arrived to work today at 8:45 because;
a) flat tire on the way to work
b) Accident on the interstate
c) I met up with an old drinking buddy and
I stayed out later than I should have.

53

PROCESS CAPABILITY ANALOGY

Bill, Nice guy. works in the accounting

department. He lives 10 miles away from
work. In order to get to work he takes the
interstate I-95 and gets off at exit 23 and
zips right into work. He never hits any
trafficand there is no traffic light between
his home and work.
He's never late to work.

Judge Lance Ito. Nice guy. Works in Los

Angeles. He lives 5 miles from work. In orde
to get to work he has to get through 5 traffic
light onto interstate I-5(which is frequently
backed up) to downtown Los Angeles. There
he has to find parking and then fight the
reporters on his way into the court to preside
over the O.J. Simpson trial.
54
He is late to work quite frequently.

PROCESS CAPABILITY ANALOGY

Bill

Judge Lance Ito

Arrives to work between

7:48 to 7:56 AM.

Arrives to work between 7:48 to 8:06 AM

Late to work

Early
to
work

7:42

7:48

7:54

8:00

Arrival time at work

8:06

8:12
55

PROCESS CAPABILITY ANALOGY

If we thought of being early or late to work as our
specification, then we can say that Bill IS capable
meeting the specification. Judge Ito IS NOT capable
of meeting the specification.
Bill
Late to work

Early
to
work

7:42

Judge Ito

7:48

7:54
Arrival time at work

8:00

8:06

8:12

56

PROCESS CAPABILITY ANALOGY

Bill
Arrives to work between
7:48 to 7:56 AM 99.7% of time.
6 sigma = 7:56 -7:48 = 8 min.

Judge Lance Ito

Arrives to work between 7:48 to
8:06 AM 99.7% of time.
6 sigma = 8:06 - 7:48 = 18 min.

Tolerance = late - early = 8:00 - 7:46 = 14 minutes

Capability = tolerance
6 sigma

if greater than 1 we say it

is capable of meeting spec.

Bill's Capability = 14 / 8 = 1.75 (Bill is capable)

Ito's Capability = 14/18 = .78 (Ito IS NOT capable)
57

LEANRING 11
Cp

= Tol band / 6 sigma

Cpk = Min of (Avg - LSL) or (USL - Avg) / 3 sigma

(n-1)

_
_ 2
_
2
2
(x-x1 ) + (x-x2) + (x-x )

(R abr) =

(n - 1)

R
d2
58

The control limits can be drawn around both the

average (x-bar) and the Range chart. Therefore,
you can detect several different types of change.
X-bar chart
xx
xxx
xxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxx
xxx
xx
xxx

+/- 3 sigma

Range chart
xxx
xx
xxx
xxx
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxx
xx

+/- 3 sigma

59

LOCATION SHIFTS
Process spread
remains same
while center
increases

let's see what

that looks like
in a control chart

60

Spread remains same

Center shifts up
X-bar chart
+/- 3 sigma

Range chart
+/- 3 sigma

61

SPREAD CHANGE
Process spread
increase while
center remain
same

let's see what

that looks like
in a control chart

62

Spread increased
Center remain same
X-bar chart

+/- 3 sigma

Range chart
+/- 3 sigma

63

Spread increased
Center remain same
X-bar chart
+/- 3 sigma

Range chart
+/- 3 sigma
64

LEANRING 12
Note that when the process variation increased
the Range chart points shifted to a higher level.
However, the process center (X-bar) seems to
swing wildly going out of both Upper and Lower
control limit while the average is still the same.
Because of the tendency of the X-bar chart to
swing with increase variability, the Range chart
must be reviewed first to determine if the process
variability increased prior to looking at the X-bar
chart to determine if the process shifted.
65

+/- 3 sigma

TREND
target

Rule of thumb, if there are 7 points in a row all higher or lower

than the preceeding point. In this case from the start of the
trend to the time a point went outside the control limit there were
12 samples. An experinced operator/auditor would begin looking
66
for assignable cause much sooner.

+/- 3 sigma

SHIFT
target

Rule of thumb, if there are 6 consequetive points above or below the

target line, a process shift has occurred. In this case, because the
process shifted to somewhere between the target and the upper control
limit, there is a good chance that a point will be outside the control limit
soon. In the above example, it took about 11 points to go outside the
control limit. An experienced operator/auditor would have looked for
assignable cause sooner.

67

Summary.. Process changes

Small shift .. in Center while Spread same
in Spread while Center same
Large shift in Center up or down while Spread same

Spread increase while Center same

Center slowly trending up or down while spead same

Center shift up or down at the same time the spread

68
increase

PROCESS CAPABILITY
So you now know how to detect change in a
process. You even know how to detect different
type of change to the process distribution. Up to
now we have not talked about the QUALITY of the
products being produced while the process is
controlled using SPC methods.
If we control the process the process will produce
parts with variation as the equipment is CAPABLE
of producing. We call this PROCESS CAPABILITY.
69

TARGET

Cp Cpk..... Say what?

Cpk

Cp

Lower
spec.

7:42

Upper
spec.

7:48

7:54

8:00

8:06

8:12
70

Cpk =

Target - lower spec

3 sigma

or

Upper spec - Target

3 sigma

Cpk looks at the likelihood of making product outside

either lower or upper specification

Lower
spec.

7:42

Cpk
TARGET

Cpk

7:48

7:54

Upper
spec.

8:00

8:06

8:12
71

LEANRING
IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW
WHAT YOUR MACHINE IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING.
OTHERWISE YOU MAY BE
CHASING YOUR TAIL TRYING
TO GET THE MACHINE TO
DO WHAT IT IS NOT
CAPABLE OF DOING.
72

Each red x represents five individual

reading (blue x) that are spread out
more than the average (red x)

x UPPER SPEC
x
x
xxx
x xx x
xx x x xx x xx
x
x
xx xxx x x
xx
x
x
x
x
xxxxxxx
x
x
x
x
x
x
x x x xx xxxxxxx
x
x x x xx xxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
x x xxx
x
xxx
xxx
x
x
xx
x
xx xxxxxxx xx x
x xxx
xx
x
x
LOWER SPEC
x

X-bar chart

UpperControl Limit

x
x
= x
x
x

xx
xxx
xxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxx
xxx
xx
xxx
LowerControl Limit

Each point is an average

of five indivdual points

Control chart will not differentiate a capable and

a not capable process. it will only signal change.
The control chart does not care what the spec 73is.

LEANRING

machine capability

If your process is not capable, then there

is a good
chance that some of your sample will
have values
x outside the specification. Chances are if
x Upper
are not
xx you spec
x
xxxx xrunning SPC control chart, you may be
xx x xxx xxx
x
tempted
to
x
x
x
xx
x
x
xx
x
x xx xxxxxxx
x
x
x adjustment. Let's see what
xmake
x xxxxxxx
an
xx
x
x
x
x
x xxx
xwould
x xxxxxxx
xxxxxxxhappen.
x x xxxx xxxxxx

xx xxx x
x
x
x
x xxxxxxx
x xxx
xx
x
x Lower spec
x

74

LEANRING
If by the luck of the draw you get a reading below the
lower specification even though the process has not
changed, and adjusted the machine up.
The distribution will shift up.
machine capability

x
x Upper spec
xx
x
xxxxx x
x
xxx
x
xxxxx
xx
x
x
x
x x
x x x xx xxxxxxx
x
x
x
x
xx xxxxxxxx
x
x
x
x
x
xxxxxxx
x x x xx xxxxxxx
x x xxx
x
xxx
xxx
x
x
xx
x
x
x
xxxxxxx x
x
x
x xxx
x
xx Lower spec
x
x

Sample

x
x
xx = x
x

s
u
j
d
A

e
n
i
h
ac
tm

up

75

LEANRING
After the distribution shifted up, there is now a
much greater chance of getting a value outside
upper specification. So the machine is adjusted
down, slightly more than it was adjusted up.
Chance of out of
spec was = 10%

machine capability

Upper spec
x
x
x
x
x
x
xx xx x
x
xxx
x
xxxxx
xx
x
x
x
x x
x x x xx xxxxxxx
x
x
x
x
xx xxxxxxxx
x
x
x
x xxx
xx
x xxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
x x xxx
x
xxx
xxx
x
x
xx
x
x xxxxxxxx x
x
x
xx
xxx
xx
Lower spec
x
x
x

x
x
xxx
x
xx xx x
x
xxx
xxxxxxx
xx
x
x
x x
x x x xx xxxxxxx
x
x
x
x
xx xxxxxxxx
x
x
x
x xxx
xx
x xxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
x x xxx
x
xxx
xxx
x
x
xx
x
x xxxxxxx x
x
x
xx
xxx
xx
x
x
x

Chance of out of
spec is now = 40%

Ad
j

us
t

ac
hi
ne

do

wn
76

LEANRING 13
The adjustments continues until, the actual products
produced varies much more than the capability of the
machine.
Actual range of product produced

machine capability

x
x
xx
xx
x
x
xxxx
x
x
xx x xxx
xx
x
x
x xxx x
xx Upper spec x
x xxx
x
xxxxxxxx
xx
x x x xx
x
xxxxxxxx
x xx x
x
x
x
x
xxxxxxx
xx x x xx x xx
x
x xxx
x
x
xxx
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x xxx x x
x xxx
x x xxx
x
xxx
x
x
x
x
x
xxxxxxx
x
x
x
x xx xxxxxxxx x x xxxxxxxxx x
x
x
xx
x
x
x
x
xx
x xxxxxxx
x xx x
xx
xxx
xx xxxxxxx x x
xx x x xx x xx
xxx
x x xxx
x
xxx
x
x
x
x
x
x xx xxx x x
x
xx
x xx xxxxxxx
x x xxxxxxxxx x
x
x
x
x xxx x
x
x
xx xxxxxxxx
x
xx
x
x x xxx
x
x xxxxxxx
x xxx
xx xxxxxxx
xx Lower spec x
x x xxx
x
xxx
xxx
x
x
x
xx
x
x
xxx xx x
xxx
x
x
x
x
x xxx
xx
x
x
x

x
x
x
xxx
x xx x
xx x x xx x xx
x
x xx xxx x x
xx
x xx xxxxxxx
x
x
x
x
xx xxxxxxxx
x xx
x
x
x
xxxxxxx
x x x xx xxxxxxx
x x xxx
x
xxx
xxx
x
x
xx
x
x x xxx xx x
xx
x
x xxxx
x
xx
x
x

77

LEANRING 14
If you are controlling your process using SPC Method,
even if your process is not capable, no adjustment
would take place. Therefore, the product you produced
is what the machine is capable of and not more.
machine capability

x
x
xxx Upper spec
x
xx xx x
x
xxx
xxxxxxx
xx
x
x
x x
x x x xx xxxxxxx
x
x
x
x
xx xxxxxxxx
x
x
x
x
x
xxxxxxx
x x x xx xxxxxxx
x x xxx
x
xxx
xxx
x
x
xx
x
x
xxxxx x
xxx
x
x
x xxx
x
xx Lower spec
x
x

x
UpperControl Limit

x
x
= x
x
x

xx
xxx
xxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxx
xxx
xx
xxx
LowerControl Limit

78

ATTRIBUTE CONTROL CHARTS

Defectives
Variable
Sample
Fixed
Sample

Defects

p-Chart c - Chart
np-Chart u - Chart
79

Measurement
System
Analysis
(MSA)

80