PROBABILI

TY
THEORY

USE

Initially at
Gambling
Tables
Nowadays
Everywhere

Factorial Notation;

Factorial n is the continued periodic product of the first n

natural numbers. Symbolically, it is written as n! or
.
n! = n. (n-1). (n-2)..1.
For Example:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

2!
3!
4!
1!
0!
7!

=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

2
3
4
1
1
7
7
7

X1
X2X1
X3X2X1
X 6 X 5 X 4!
X 6 X 5 X 4 X 3!
x 6!

Counting Rules and Reminder of Set theory

An operation that results in two or more

outcomes is known as an Experiment.
Performing of an experiment is known as a
Trial.

Experiment
Predictable
Unique
Or of
Certain
Deterministic

Unpredictable
Not definite
but may
Orbe
one of the
Probabilistic
possibilities

A numerical measure of uncertainty is

provided by a very important branch of
statistics known as theory of probability.

Event
The results (or outcomes) of an experiment are known
as events

Elementary

Composite
Or
Compound

Tossing a coin

Drawing a black ace

Student writing an examination.

Odd number multiple of 3

Sample Space :
The set of all possible outcomes is known as the sample space of the
particular Experiment, and is denoted by S. The outcome or event is
known as the element or sample point of that set or Sample space.
Sample space is also known as Universal Set or Event Set or
Probability Set.

De Morgans Law :

A B A B
A B A B

Equally likely Events :

Events are said to be equally likely, if after taking into account all
conditions no event can be expected to occur in preference to any
other event in the same experiment. i.e. all the events have an equal
chance of occurrence.
For instance;
1. Getting head or tail in toss of a coin.
2. Getting even or odd number in the roll of a dice.
3. Getting a black or red card in a draw from the pack of cards.

Mutually Exclusive Events :

Two sets are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of any one
of them prevents the occurrence of any other event in the same
experiment. i.e., at the same time.
Mutually Exclusive events cant occur simultaneously in the same
experiment.

Random Experiment :
An experiment where all possible outcomes are known and which can
be repeated under identical conditions but it is not possible to predict
the outcome of any particular trial in advance, is known as a Random
Experiment.

Exhaustive Events :
The total number of possible outcomes of a random experiment
constitutes an exhaustive set of events, i.e., the events are said to be
exhaustive if all possible cases i.e., outcomes are considered.

Mathematical or Classical Definition of

Probability :

If an experiment can result in (m + n) equally likely and, mutually exclusive and

exhaustive cases and m of them are favorable to the occurrence of event A and
the remaining, i.e., n are against the occurrence of event A. Then the probability
of occurrence of event A denoted by P(A), is defined as the ratio m/(m + n). i.e.,
the probability of occurrence of A is given by:

Number of Outcomes Favourable to A

P (A) =

Number of Exhaustive Outcomes

mn

The probability of occurrence of an event always lies between 0 and 1

(1). What is the Probability of getting a head in toss of a fair coin?

Let, A is the event of getting a head in toss of a fair coin. Number of
cases favourabel to A are given by m and number of cases against
A are given by n, then total number of exhaustive cases can be
given by m+n;
Here;
Number of cases favourable to occurrence of A i.e., m = 1
Number of exhaustive cases i.e. (m + n) = 2
Probability of getting a head in toss of a fair coin is given by;

P( A)

m
1
1

m n 11 2

(2).

What is the Probability of getting at-least one head in

simultaneous toss of two unbiased coins?

Total number of possible cases;

(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)
i.e. m + n = 4
Number of favourable cases to event;
(H, H), (H, T), (T, H)
m=3
P ( A)

m
3

mn
4

(3).

What is the Probability of getting an odd number in the roll

of a dice?

Total number of possible cases;

(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
i.e. m + n = 6
Number of favourable cases to event;
(1, 3, 5)
m=3
P ( A)

m
3
1

mn
6
2

(4).

What is the chance of drawing a face card from a well

shuffled pack of cards?

Total number of possible cases;

(52)
i.e. m + n = 52
Number of favourable cases to event;
(K, K, K, K, Q, Q, Q, Q, J, J, J, J)
m = 12
P ( A)

m
12
3

mn
52 13

(5).

What is the probability that a leap year selected at random

will contain 53 Sundays?

Total number of possible cases;

(S, M), (M, T), (T, W), (W, T), (T, F), (F, S), (S, S)
i.e. m + n = 7
Number of favourable cases to event;
(Saturday, Sunday), (Monday, Sunday)
m=2
P ( A)

m
2

mn
7

(6).

What is the probability of getting a total of 6 on a roll of two

dice?

Total number of possible cases;

(36)
i.e. m + n = 36
Number of favourable cases to event;
(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)
m=5
P ( A)

m
5

mn
36

(7).

A bag contains 15 tickets marked with number between 1 to

15. One ticket is drawn at random. Find the probability that;

A. The number is greater than 10.
B. The number is even.
C. The number is multiple of 2 0r 5.
Total number of possible cases;
(15)
Number of favourable cases to event A;
(11, 12, 13, 14, 15)
m=5

5
1
P ( A)

15
3

Total number of possible cases;

(15)
Number of favourable cases to event B;
(2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14)
m=7

7
P( B)
15

Total number of possible cases;

(15)
Number of favourable cases to event C;
(2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 5, 15)
m=9

P (C )

9
3

15
5

COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Fundamental Principle of Counting:

If an operation can be performed in m ways and

having been performed in one of these ways a
second operation can be performed in n ways the
total number of ways completing both the
operations can be given by m x n.

Total number of ways from Delhi to Agara

=2x3=6
A

E
Total no of ways from
Delhi to Mathura = 2 (A
& B)

Total Number of ways fro

Mathura to Agara = 3 (C,
D & E)

PERMUTATION
When

order

of

arrangement

matters,

we

apply

permutation. i.e., n dissimilar things can be arranged n!

different ways;
A permutation for r dissimilar
n! things out of n that is given
n
by;

(n r )!

(b)

Permutation of n objects taken r at a time;

n

n!
Pr
(n r )!

(c)
Permutation of n objects taken r at a time,
when any object may be repeated any number of
times;

nr
(d)

Permutation of n objects in a circular order;

(n 1)!

(e)

Permutation with restrictions;

If out of n objects n1 are alike of one kind, n2 are alike
of another kind, ....., nk are alike, the number of
permutations are;
n!
n1!n2 !.....nk !

George

Amit

Sofia

How many ways a team of three can be picked;

Total number of persons = 3

Selections to be made = 3
Number of ways = 3!
=3x2x1=6
The possible permutations are;
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

George Amit Sofia

Sofia Amit George
Amit George Sofia
George Sofia Amit
Amit Sofia George
Sofia George Amit

The number of permutations of n dissimilar things taken r

at a time is

n!
Pr
( n r )!

How many ways a team of two can be picked in above set example;

n!
3!
3 2 1
Pr

6
(n r )! (3 2)!
1! 1

George

Sofia

Sofia

George

George

Amit

George

Amit

Sofia
Amit

Sofia

Amit

The number of permutations of n things when n1 of them are of one kind and n2 of
them another kind is;

n!
n1! n2 !
If we have to find out the permutations of the letters of word FARIDABAD (When
A occurs 3 times and D occurs two times) then it is given by;

9!
9 8 7 6 5 4 3!

15120
3!2!
3!2 1

Combinations
If order doesnt matter in selection than it is known as the problem of combination
and if out of total n, r selections has to be made the combinations can be given by;

n!
Cr
r!.(n r )!

A.

Cr nCn r

B. The total number of combinations of n distinct objects

taking 1, 2, ...., n respectively, at a time is;
n

C1 n C2 n C3 ...... n Cn 2 n 1

(8) In how many ways two balls can be selected at random

out of 8 balls?

8!
C2
28
2!.(8 2)!

(9) In how many ways a group of 12 persons can be

in to a group of 7 and 5 persons respectively.

Cr nCn r

12

C7 12C127 12C5 792

divided

(10)

A committee of 8 teachers is to be formed out of 6

science, 8 art teachers and a physical instructor. In how

many ways committees can be formed if;
(i) Any teacher can be included for the committee.
(ii) There should be 3 science and 4 art teachers on the
committee such that (a) any science teacher and any
arts teacher can be included, (b) One particular science
teacher must be on the committee, (c) three particular
arts teachers must not be in committee.

(i)

15

C8 6,435

(ii)
(a)

C3 8 C4 1 C1 1400

(a)

C2 8 C4 1 C1 700

(a)

C3 5 C4 1 C1 100

Ordered Partitions
(Distinguishable Objects):
(i) The total number of putting n distinct objects into r
compartments which are marked as 1, 2, ....,r is
equal to rn.

(ii) The total number of ways in which n objects can be

put into r compartments such that the first
compartment contains n1 objects, second n2 objects
and so on the rth compartment contains n, objects,
where, n1 + n2 + ..... + nr = n, is given by;

n!
n1!.n2 !.....nr !

Ordered Partitions
(Identical Objects):
(a) The total number of putting n identical objects into
r compartments which are marked as 1, 2, ....,r is
equal to

Cr 1 , Where each compartment may

have none or any number of objects.
n r 1

(b) The total number of putting n identical objects into

r compartments which are marked as 1, 2, ....,r is
equal to

( n r ) ( r 1)

Cr ,1 Where each compartment may

have at-least one of objects.

(c) The total number of putting n identical objects into

r compartments which are marked as 1, 2, ....,r is
equal to

( n kr ) ( r 1)

Cr 1

, Where each compartment

may have at-least k objects.

(11)

4 couples occupy 8 seats in a row at random. What

is the probability that all the ladies are seating next
to each other?

4
P

Required Probability 5 P4 1
8
P8
14
5

(12) 12 persons are seated at random (i) in a row, (ii) in a

ring. Find the probabilities that three particular
persons are seating together.

Required Probability

10

P10 3 P3 1

12
P12
22

3
P

Required Probability 9 P3 3
11
P11
55
9

(13) 5 red and 2 black balls, each of different sizes, are

randomly laid down in a row, Find the probability
that;
a) First and last balls are black.
b) There are three red balls b/w two black balls.
c) Two black balls are placed side by side.

a)

b)

5
P

Required Probability 2 P5 1
7
P7
21
2

3
2
P

P2 1
Required Probability 3
3

7
P7
7
3

2
P

c) Required Probability 6 P2 2
7
P7
7
6

(14) Each of the two players, A and B, get 26 cards at

random. Find the probability that each player has an
equal number of red and black cards.
Required Probability

26

C13 26 C13
.21
52
C26

(15) 8 distinguish marbles are distributed at random in

three boxes numbered 1, 2, 3. Find the probability
that they contain 3, 4 and 1 marbles respectively.
8 marbles can be put in 38 ways in three boxes.
Required Probability

8!
1
280
8
3!.4!.1! 3
6561

Relative Frequency Approach:

Under this approach of probability of happening of an
event is the proportion of the time that event of
same kind will occur in the long run if an
experiment is repeated N times under identical
conditions and an event E noccurs n times then;
P E
, Provided that N is very
N
N n and
0

large

is

ratio.

n
1
N

n/N = 0, never shows that n is an impossible event

but in N trials the occurrence of n is so insignificant
that it can be considered as impossible event.
Similarly, n/N = 1, never means a certain event but
it shows that in N trials of same experiment the
occurrence of n is so frequent that it can be

Axiomatic or Modern Approach:

Given by A. Kolmogorov;
Let S be a sample space of an experiment and A be
an event of this sample space. Then P (A), is
defined

as

real

value

set

function

which

associates a real value corresponding to a subset A

of sample space S.
In order that P (A) denotes the probability function,
the following rules, popularly known as axioms or
postulates of probability, must be satisfied.

Axiom I:
For any event A is sample space S, we have 0 P
(A) 1.
Axiom II:
P (S) = 1
Axiom III:
If A1, A2, ...., Ak are mutually exclusive events of the
sample space S, then
k

P ( A1 A2 ...... Ak ) P( Ai )
i 1

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT:
Let there be a sample space consisting of n
elements, i.e., S = {e1, e2, ...., en}. Since the
n

P ( S ) P (ei ) exclusive, we have

elementary events are mutually
i 1

according to axiom III,

. Similarly, if A =

{e1, Pe( A2,) ....,

P(eei )m. } is any subset of S consisting of m
i 1

elements, where m n, then

Thus the

probability of a sample space or an event is

equal to the sum of probabilities of its
elementary events.

THEOREMS ON PROBABILITY:
Theorem

P ( ) 0

(1):
Theorem
(2):
Theorem
(3):
Theorem
(4):

P ( A) 1 P( A)
P( A B) P( B) P( A B)
P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)
Addition

Theorem

Probability

of

IMPORTANT:
(1) If A and B are mutually exclusive then, i.e., A
B = , then P (A B) = 0.
(2) The event A B denotes the occurrence of
either A or B or both. Alternatively, it applies
the occurrence of at-least one of the two
events.
(3) The event A B denotes the compound or
joint event, that denotes the simultaneous
occurrence of two events.

Conditional Probability:
Let A be any event in a sample space S, where P (A) > 0.
The probability then an event B occurs subject to the condition
that event A has already occurred is called the conditional
probability of the occurrence of the event B on the assumption
that event A has already occurred (or happened) and is denoted
by the symbol P (B/A) and is read as the probability of B given
A.
If P (B/A) = 1. Then the occurrence of A Occurrence of B.

Multiplication Rule of Probability:

The Probability of simultaneous occurrence (or joint occurrence) of
the two events A and B denoted by P (A B) is given by the
product of unconditional probability of the occurrence of event A
by the conditional probability of the occurrence of event B on the
assumption that event A has already occurred.
Symbolically,

B
P(A B) P(A).P

Simultaneously occurrence of events A and B, i.e., A B =

occurrence of the event A and the occurrence of the event B
after event A has already occurred of event B and the
occurrence of event A after B has already occurred. i.e.,
B
A
P ( A B ) P ( A).P
P ( B ).P

A
B

P (A B) can also be written as P(A.B). Hence,

P ( A B ) P ( A.B ) P ( A).P

B
P( A B)

A
P ( A)

B
P ( A) 0 P

is undefined.
A
P ( ABC ) P ( A B C )

If,

P ( A) P

P ( A) P

A.B

A B

If, A1, A2, ., An are n events, then

P ( A1 , A2 ,........ An )

A2 A3
An
P
.............P
P ( A1 ) P

A
A
A
(
A
,
A
,.......,
A
)
1
2
n 1
1 1 2

Independent Events :
Events are said to be independent when the happening or
occurrence of any one of them does not affect the probability of
the occurrence of any other events, i.e., if A and B are two
independent events then the happening of an event A is not
affect the probability of happening of the event B,
i.e., P (B/A) = P (B).
If two events A and B are independent then;
P (A B) = P (A) P(B)

Dependent or Contingent Events :

Events are said to be dependent or contingent if the happening or
occurrence of any one of them does affect the occurrence of any
other event.

Illustration :
If a bag contains 4 blue and 3 red balls. Two balls need to be
drawn successively. If A is an event of drawing a blue ball and
B is an event of drawing a red ball.
Then,

Probability of drawing a red ball P(A)

Probability of drawing a blue ball P(B)

3
7
4
7

If the ball drawn in first draw is replaced then there is no change in

the probability of 2nd draw but if the ball drawn in the first draw is
not replaced after the first draw, two cases arise
(i) Ball at first draw is blue

Probability of drawing a red ball

Probability of drawing a blue ball

3 1

6 2
3 1

6 2

(ii) Ball at first draw is red

Probability of drawing a red ball

Probability of drawing a blue ball

2 1

6 3
4 2

6 3

In the above discussed illustration if the ball is drawn in second

draw with replacement then the events are known as
independent otherwise dependent.

Complementary Events :
The concept of complementary events refers to the given sample
space. If an event A contains some points of a sample space,
then the event complementary to A will contain remaining
points in that sample space. The complement of an event A is
the event A does not occur, i.e., two complementary events are
opposite to each other.
Two complementary events are mutually exclusive and
Exhaustive.

i.e. for any event A

P(A) + P(Ac) = 1
And,
P(A) P(Ac) = 0
Also,
P(A) = 1 - P(Ac)

If A and B are two events then the events

(A Bc ) and (A B ) are mutually exclusive and also
A = (A Bc ) (A B )
P (A) = P (A Bc ) P (A B )
(B Ac ) and (B A ) are mutually exclusive and also
B = (B Ac ) (B A )
P (B) = P (B Ac ) P (B A )

Unconditional Probability :
If the probability of happening of an event is without any
condition or prior knowledge of the occurrence of other events is
called unconditional probability.
If A1, A2,.,An are n independent events with respect
to probabilities of occurrence P1, P2, P3.,Pn, then the
probability of occurrence of at-least one of them is given by:
P ( A1 A2 ................ An ) 1 1 P1 1 P2 ............1 Pn

1 P A1 .P A2 ..........P An

= 1 Probability of happening of none of the events.

Probability of happening of none of the independent events

A2,.,An
= 1 Probability of happening of at-least one of the events.

A1,

Mutually Exclusive and Independent

Two mutually
Events
: exclusive events are disjoint in the sample space.
if A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then A B = 0.
But in case of independent events A B = P (A). P(B).
Therefore two mutually exclusive events cant not be independent.
Also in case of two mutually exclusive events occurrence of one of them
implies non-happening of other, with this concept also mutually exclusive
events can not be independent.
The concept of mutually exclusive events deals with the same trial , while the
concept of independent events deals with the different trials.

Bayes Theorem :
An event A can occur only if one or more of the set of exhaustive
and mutually exclusive events B1, B2,.,Bn. The
probabilities P (B1), P (B2),, P (Bn) and the conditional
probabilities P (A/Bi), where i = 1,2,3,..,n for an event
A to occur are known. Then the conditional probability P (B i /A)
when A has already occurred is given by

B
B

i
P
n
A
A

P
B
.
P

i
i 1
Bi
P Bi P

B
i

A
A

.......... P Bn P
B2
Bn

P Bi P

A
B1

P B1 P

P B2 P

16. If A, B and C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events,

find P (B) if,
1
1
P(C ) P ( A) P ( B)
3
2

17. If A, B and C are bidding for a contract. It is believed that A

has exactly half chances that B has, B in turn is 4/5 th as likely
as C to win the contract. What is the probability for each to
win the contract.

U
AB

AB
A

B-A

P A B P A P A B
P B A P B P A B

P A B P B A P A P B P A B P A B
P A B P A B

= Probability of only one of the events (or exactly one

of the events) A and B occurs.
The formula is applicable irrespective of the fact, that the events are
independent or not. If the events are known to be independent the
following formula will also work.
Probability only one of A and B occurs
P A.P B P B .P A
P B A P B P A B
P A P B A P A P B P A B
P A B
Similarly ,
P A B P B P A B

From (1) and (2),

P (A Bc ) = P [A (A B)] = P (A) P (A B)
The events (B Ac ) and (B A) are mutually exclusive and B = (B
Ac ) (B A)
P (B) = P [(B Ac ) + (B A)]
P ( A B ) = 1 P (A B)
U
AB
If A and B are two independent events, then
P (A B) = 1 P (Ac ).P (Bc )
A
B
A Bc
=AB

There are 5 doors in a room. In

how many ways can three
persons enter the room using
different doors?
5

P3 60

A lady is asked to rank 5 types of

washing powders according to
her preferences, how many ways
the powders can be ranked?

120

In how many ways 6 passengers

can sit 15 available seats?

36,03,600

In how many ways the letters of

words Education can be
arranged?
3,62,880

In how many ways the letters of

words Statistics can be
arranged?
50,400

In how many ways 20 students

can be allotted to 4 tutorial
groups of 4, 5, 5 and 6 students
respectively?
9,77,72,87,522

In how many ways 10 members

of a committee can be seated
at a round table if (i) they can
sit anywhere (ii) president and
secretary cant sit next to each
other.
3, 62, 880
3, 22, 560

Odds in favor of
A=

(Number of cases favorable to

the occurrence of event A)
(Number of cases against the occurrence
of event A)

m
n

m
mn
n
mn
P A

P A

(Number of cases against the

occurrence of event A)

Odds in against
event A =

n
m

(Number of cases in favor of occurrence

of event A)

n
mn
m
mn
P A

P A

The ratio m/n is always a rational number.

If m = 0, Number of favorable cases to the occurrence of event A = 0.
and P (A) = 0, the event is known as impossible event in this case.
If n = 0, the P (A) = 1, the event is known as sure or certain in this
case.
If neither m = 0 nor n = 0. The probability of occurrence of A is defined
as P (A), and it remains between 0 and 1.
Hence the probability of occurrence of A satisfies the relation
0 P (A) 1.

Important :
1. If the events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, the sum of their
individual probablilties of occurrence, is = 1.
Ex: If A, B and C are three mutually exclusive and exhaustive events,
then
P (A) + P (B) + P (C) = 1
2. The probability of occurrence of one particular event is also called
marginal property of the event.
3. To choose an event at random from N objects means that each
object has the same probability 1/N of being chosen.
Ex :
If two coins are flipped, there are four possibilities
{HH, HT, TH, TT}
Let E1 is the probability of getting one head and one tail.
2
1

P
E

1
Then
4
2

If E2 is the probability of getting two tails.

Then,

P E2

1
4

Limitations of Classical Approach :

1. This approach is based on the concept. i.e., assumes that all
outcomes are symmetrical.
2. The term success is loosely defined.
3. Based on the abstract reasoning.
4.
LimitedFrequency
applicability.
Relative
Approach ( Modern Definition ):
Under this approach of probability of happening of an event is the
proportion of the time that event of same kind will occur in the long
run if an experiment is repeated N times under identical conditions
and an event E occurs n times then;
n
P E
, Provided that N is
N
very large
N n and n is a ratio.
N
n
0
1
N
n/N = 0, never shows that n is an impossible event but in N trials
the occurrence of n is so insignificant that it can be considered as
impossible event.
Similarly, n/N = 1, never means a certain event but it shows that in
N trials of same experiment the occurrence of n is so frequent that
it can be considered as certain event.

Hence an event E, if occurs n times for N large trials under identical

conditions and if N approaches infinity the ratio n/N expresses the
limit of truenprobability, so that
P E lim N

Limitation :
Since this approach requires repetition of experiment a large number of
times, which reduces the practical utility in number of situations.
Specially when event occurs only once.
Ex:
1. The probability that a particular candidate win in elections from a
certain constituency can not be obtained by applying this approach.

Subjective or Personalistic Approach :

This approach is used to determine the probability of events which
have either not occurred at all in the past or which will occur only
once or where the experiment can not be performed under identical
conditions repeatedly.
It can be defined as the measure of ones confidence in the occurrence
of a particular event. It rests with the persons mind and not with the
physical event. Confidence or faith in the occurrence of an event
being a matter of personal outlook or judgment, therefore a
subjective approach is also known as personalistic approach.
The limitation of this approach is that probabilities are based on
personal confidence which may vary from person to person
depending on ones perception of the situation and the past
experience.
The main advantage of this approach is that it is highly flexible and can
be applied to the number of situations where earlier approaches fail
to offer any situation.

Addition Rule of probability (Theorem of Total Probability) :

If A and B are two events then the probability that at least one of
them occurs is denoted by P (A B) and is given by:
P (AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B).
Proof :
U
AB
According to Veen Diagram
B Ac
B = (B Ac) (B A) and
=B-A
A = (A Bc) (A B)
B Ac and B A are mutually exclusive events.
Therefore,
P (B) = P (B Ac) + P (B A)..(1)
And,
A B = A (B Ac )
P (A B) = P (A) + P (B Ac )
= P (A) + P (B) - P (B A)
= P (A) + P (B) - P (A B)

Mutually, Exclusive events have no common sample points in them,

Therefore, if A and B are two mutually exclusive events then A B
= . And in this case P (A B ) = 0.
In case of mutually exclusive events ; P (A B ) = P (A) + P (B).
If there are three events A, B and C (mutually exclusive).,
Then,
P (A B C ) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C).
Similarly, if there are n mutually exclusive events then,
P (A1 A2 An) = P (A1) + P (A2) + + P (An)

Conditional Probability :

Multiplication Theorem of Probability :

Counting Rules:

Example:
A, B and C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, find P(B) if
1
1
P (C )
P ( A) P ( B )
3
2

Solution:
1
1
P (C )
P ( A) P ( B ) k ( say )
3
2
P (C ) 3k , P ( A) 2k , P ( B ) k

Since the events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, the sum of
probabilities of their occurrence should be equal to 1.
3k 2k k 1 k
P( B)

1
6

1
6

Example 2:
A, B and C are bidding for a contract. It is believed that A has exactly 2/5
the chance that B has, B in turn, is 4/5th
as likely as C to win the
contract. What is the probability for each to win the contract.
Solution:
Let P(A), P(B) and P(C) are the probabilities of winning the contract by A,
B and C. As directed by the problem following are the relations amongst
the probabilities.
P (C ) k ,
P( B)

4
k
5

and ,
P ( A)

2
k
5

Since A, B and C mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, therefore

P ( A) P ( B ) P (C ) 1
2
4
5
k k k 1 k
5
5
11

 P ( A)

2
4
5
, P( B)
, P (C )
11
11
11

Example 3:
Die is loaded with in such a way that the probability of each face is
proportional to the number on that face. What is the probability of getting
an even number in one throw?
Solution:
Let the probability of getting 1 = k.
Then the probability of getting 2 = 2k and the probabilities of getting 3,
4, 5 and 6 are 3k, 4k, 5k and 6k respectively.
Since all the events, i.e., getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are mutually exclusive
and exhaustive, we have k + 2k + 3k + 4k + 5k + 6k = 1 k = 1/21.
Now, the probability of getting an even number is given by;
2k 4k 6k 12k 12

1
4

21 7

Example 4:
Three horses A, B and C are in a race. A is twice as likely to win as B and
B is twice as likely to win as C. What are the respective probabilities of
winning? Presume that dead heat is not possible.

Solution:
Let the probability of winning of horse C = p. Then the probability of
winning of B and A will be 2p and 4p respectively.
Since the event of winning of horses are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive, we have
p + 2p + 4p = 1 p = 1/7
4
7

2
7

1
7

'
Respective probabilities of winning of A, B and' C are

Example 5:
A die is loaded in such a way that each odd number is twice as likely to
occur as each even number. Find
(1)The probability that the number rolled is perfect square.
(2)The probability that the number rolled is a perfect square provided it is
greater than 3.
Solution:
Let the probability of getting an even number = P
Then, the probability of getting an odd number = 2P
Since two of the defined events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive,
therefore

2P + P + 2P + P + 2P + P = 1 P = 1/9

Since in throw of a die there are 6 outcomes in total, out of which 1 and 4
are perfect squares
(1)The probability that the number rolled is a perfect square
= Probability of getting 1 + Probability of getting 4

2 1
1

9
9
3

(2)
The probability that the number rolled is a perfect square
greater than 3
= Probability of getting 4
= 1/9
E 6:
(1)Calculate P (B/A) if P (A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.60 and P (A/B) = 0.90.
(2)A pair of dice is thrown, find the probability (a) that the sum is neither
8 nor 10, (b) that the sum is greater than 12.
(3)If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that the sum of the
numbers on the dice is (a) greater than 8, (b) Neither 7 nor 11.

(1) As we know from multiplication theorem of probability:

P ( B ).P A
A
B
or , P ( A).P B P ( B ).P A P ( A B )
A
B
P ( A B ) P ( A).P B

Therefore:

0.75 P B

0.60 0.90
A
0.60 0.90
P B

0.72
A
0.75

2 (a) The probability of getting neither 8 nor 10.

Now,
5

The probability of getting sum 36

as 8
3

The probability of getting sum as

36 10
5
3
8 2

The probability of getting sum as 836or 36

10 36 9

The Probability that sum is neither 8 nor 10

= 1 - The probability of getting sum as 8 or 10
[P(A ) 1 P(A)]

Therefore,

2
9

1 10
The Probability that sum is neither 8nor

7
9

) The probability of getting 12 is an Impossible Event.

3 (a) Sum greater than 8 means 9, 10, 11 and 12, that can
happen in following ways:
Sum

Possible combination of numbers on faces

Sample
Points

(3, 6), (6, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4)

10

(4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 5)

11

(5, 6), (6, 5)

12

(6, 6)

The probability of getting sum more than

8 is: 8)
P ( sum
6
36
2
P ( sum 11)
36
P ( sum 7)

(b
)

6
2
8

36 36 36
8
7
P ( sum 7or11) 1

36 9
P ( sum 7or11)

10
36

E 7:
A man wants to marry a girl having qualities white complexion The
probability of having such a girl is 1 in 20; Handsome dowry The
probability of getting this is 1 in 50; Westernized manners and
etiquettes, the probability here is 1 in 100. Find out the probability of
his getting married to such a girl when possession of these three
attribute is independent.
Solution:
In other words, the question reduces to saying that there are three
independent events, i.e., white complexion, handsome dowry, and
western culture and etiquettes and we are to find the probability that
all these three events occur
1 simultaneously.
1
1
5

20

Hence the required probability

50

100

10

E 7:
If a coin is tossed three times, what is the probability that there are atleast one head and at-least one tail.
Solution:
If a coin is tossed three times, the following combinations are possible:
HHH

HHT

HTTHTH

THH

TTHTTT THT

Getting atleast one head and one tail can happen 6 possible ways

6
3

Hence the required probability

8
4

E 8:
From 20 tickets marked with first 20 numerals one is drawn at random,
what is the probability that it is a multiple of 3 and 7.
Solution:
In the first 20 numerals multiple of 3 are 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18. Total Number
= 6. And the multiples of 7 are 7, 14. Total number = 2.

Required
Probability

62
8
2

20
20 5

E 9:
There are 4 clerks and 3 officers in a bank. A committee of 3 is to be
formed at random. Find the probability that at least one clerk and one
officer are included in the committee.
Solution:
7
(7 3)3

43

7
C3 be given as
Total number of ways the committee can be selected can

Set :
A well defined collection of distinct objects is known as a set.

Subset :
If A and B are two sets then, A is said to be subset of B, if x A x
B. i.e., every element of A is also an element of B. This can be written
as A B.
Here A and B are also equal sets.
Hence we can always say.
A = B B A and A B and vice-versa.

Equal Sets :

If A and B are two sets then, A is equal to B, if x A x B. i.e., every

element of A is also an element of B. And can be written as A = B. A =
B also B = A.

Equivalent Sets :

If A and B are two sets then, A is said equivalent to B, if cardinal

number of A = cardinal number of B. And it can be written as A B.

Null Set, Empty Set or Void Set :

A set is said to be null or empty or void if the set contains no element
at all. It is represented by .

Operations on Sets :
Union :
If A and B are two sets then there union is defined as A B. i.e.,
collection of all the elements of A and B.
Mathematically, A B is defined as
A B = { x : x A or x B }
Ex :
If A = {2, 4, 5, 6}
and, B = {9, 2, 10}
Then, A B = {2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10}
Vaan Eulers Diagram

AB

Intersection :
If A and B are two sets then there intersection is defined as A B. i.e.,
common elements of A and B.
Mathematically, A B is defined as
A B = { x : x A and x B }
Ex :
If A = {2, 4, 5, 6}
and, B = {9, 2, 10, 5}
Then, A B = {2, 5}
Vaan Eulers Diagram

AB

Disjoint of Sets :
If A and B are two sets then they will be said as disjoint sets, if A B =
{Null Set}. i.e., there is no common element in A and B.
Ex:
If A = {2, 4, 5}
and, B = {1, 0}
Then A B =
Hence A and B are disjoint sets.

Complement of a Set :
If U is universal set and A is any subset of it then A c is defined as, Ac =
{ x : x A}.

Jacob Bernoulli (16541705)

De Moivre (1667-1754)

Joseph Lagrange (1736-1813)

17th centuryThomes Bayes (1702-1761)

19th

Pierre Simon and Laplace

(1749-1827)

Pandita Jagannatha Samrat

(16521744)

Munishvara

Ramchandra (18211880)

Treatise on Problems
of
Maxima and Minima

Ganesh Prasad (1876 1935 )

Theory of functions of
real variable

Srinivasa Ramanujan
(1887 1920)

A A krishnaswami Ayyangar
(1892 1953 )