Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
MGT 172
Chapter 5:
Estimating Project Times and Cost
Slide 1
Class Roadmap
Slide 2
Stakeholder Communications
Stakeholder
Analysis
Slide 4
Information
Needs
Sources of
Information
Dissemination
Modes
Responsibility
and Timing
Information Needs
Project status reports
Deliverable issues
Changes in scope
Team status meetings
Gating decisions
Accepted request changes
Action items
Milestone reports
Communication
Project
Communication PlanPlan:
Example
Slide 6
Estimating Projects
Estimating
The process of forecasting or approximating the time
and cost of completing project deliverables
The task of balancing the expectations of
stakeholders and the need for control while the
project is implemented
Estimating Methodologies
Top-down (macro or high level) estimates: group
consensus, or mathematical relationships
Bottom-up (micro or detailed) estimates: estimates of
elements of the work breakdown structure
UCSD MGT 172 - Business Project Management
This information may not be used or reproduced without prior written approval of the authors.
Some Content Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 7
Slide 8
Slide 9
Horror Stories
Confusion over Units of Measure in Aerospace Industry
Excessive Use of Spreadsheets in Financial Markets
Orders of Magnitude Error in Securities Sales
Authorization
10
11
20
2
8
16
7
56
11
2
12
Project
Project
Duration
Duration
Quality
Qualityof
of
Estimates
Estimates
Organization
Organization
Culture
Culture
Padding
Padding
Estimates
Estimates
People
People
Project
ProjectStructure
Structure
and
andOrganization
Organization
Slide 13
Slide 14
Bottoms Up
Slide 15
Questions
When is the Top-Down approach appropriate?
When is the Bottoms Up approach appropriate?
Condition
Top-Down Estimates
High uncertainty
Unstable scope
Bottoms Up Estimates
Fixed-price contract
Slide 16
Slide 17
Slide 18
FIGURE 5.1
UCSD MGT 172 - Business Project Management
This information may not be used or reproduced without prior written approval of the authors.
Some Content Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 19
Document the
estimate in a Basis of
Estimate (BOE)
The scope:
What is being accomplished
The estimate:
Who/what is doing the work
How many hours
How long is the task
Cost of each resource and the
total task
The rationale:
Why a particular estimating
method or technique was
selected
How a specific estimate was
developed
Why specific history was
selected and used
How a given activity or job is
similar or dissimilar to past
efforts
Why the estimate is realistic
and credible
Slide 20
Slide 21
Slide 22
Parametric Estimate
Models that mathematically analyze a large amount of
experience and reduce it to equations
Experience may be company or industry data
Slide 23
Slide 24
Detailed Estimate
Estimates developed at the work package level by people
responsible for the effort
Represents the judgment of an expert individual or group
Based on their individual experience
Slide 25
Slide 26
Range Estimating
Used when there is significant uncertainty
associated with the time or cost to complete
Range Estimating Durations Example
Aggressive = 5 days
Most likely = 7 days
Conservative = 10 days
Slide 27
Slide 29
The sum of the budget for all lowest level tasks must add up to
the total budget of the project
UCSD MGT 172 - Business Project Management
This information may not be used or reproduced without prior written approval of the authors.
Some Content Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 32
Slide 33
Slide 34
Types of Costs
Direct Costs
Costs that are clearly chargeable to a specific work package
Labor, materials, equipment, and other direct costs (ODCs)
Slide 35
$80,000
$20,000
$100,000
$20,000
$120,000
$24,000
$144,000
FIGURE 5.5
UCSD MGT 172 - Business Project Management
This information may not be used or reproduced without prior written approval of the authors.
Some Content Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 36
Refining Estimates
Reasons for Adjusting Estimates
Adjusting Estimates
Time and cost estimates of specific activities are
adjusted as the risks, resources, and situation
particulars become more clearly defined
Experience to date indicates estimate no longer valid
UCSD MGT 172 - Business Project Management
This information may not be used or reproduced without prior written approval of the authors.
Some Content Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 37
Slide 38
Estimating
Database
Templates
FIGURE 5.7
UCSD MGT 172 - Business Project Management
This information may not be used or reproduced without prior written approval of the authors.
Some Content Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 39
Slide 40