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Model
Randomness matters in
nonlinearity
An call option with strike price of 10.
Suppose the expected value of a stock at
call options maturity is 10.
If the stock price has 50% chance of
ending at 11 and 50% chance of ending at
9, the expected payoff is 0.5.
If the stock price has 50% chance of
ending at 12 and 50% chance of ending at
8, the expected payoff is 1.
ds
rdt dz
s
1
( r 2 )t
z (t )
2
Therefore, the average rate of return is r0.5sigma^2. (But there could be problem
because of the last term.)
2 2 2
S
2 S t
S z
t
S
S
S
+ : shares
S
S
S
The change in its value in time t is given by
S
S
2 2
rS
S
r
2
t
S
S
rT
N (d 2 )
p K e rT N (d 2 ) S 0 N (d1 )
2
ln(S 0 / K ) (r / 2)T
where d1
T
ln(S 0 / K ) (r 2 / 2)T
d2
d1 T
T
C S Ke
rT
Rearrangement of d1, d2
S
ln( rT )
1
Ke
d1
T
2
T
S
ln( rT )
1
Ke
d2
T
2
T
Ke
ln(
)
1
S
d2
T
2
T
rT
Ke
ln(
)
1
S
d1
T
2
T
r
D
?
+
+
+?
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Solution
S = 42, K = 40, r = 6%, =25%, T=0.5
ln( S 0 / K ) (r 2 / 2)T
d1
T
= 0.5341
ln( S 0 / K ) (r 2 / 2)T
d2
T
= 0.3573
Solution (continued)
c S 0 N (d1 ) K e
rT
N (d 2 )
=4.7144
pKe
rT
=1.5322
N (d 2 ) S 0 N (d1 )
The Volatility
The volatility of an asset is the standard
deviation of the continuously
compounded rate of return in 1 year
As an approximation it is the standard
deviation of the percentage change in the
asset price in 1 year
Si
ui ln
S i 1
Implied Volatility
The implied volatility of an option is the
volatility for which the Black-Scholes price
equals the market price
The is a one-to-one correspondence
between prices and implied volatilities
Traders and brokers often quote implied
volatilities rather than dollar prices
Causes of Volatility
Volatility is usually much greater when the
market is open (i.e. the asset is trading)
than when it is closed
For this reason time is usually measured
in trading days not calendar days when
options are valued
Dividends
European options on dividend-paying
stocks are valued by substituting the stock
price less the present value of dividends
into Black-Scholes
Only dividends with ex-dividend dates
during life of option should be included
The dividend should be the expected
reduction in the stock price expected
Solution
The present value of the dividend is
0.5*exp (-2/12*7%)+0.5*exp(-5/12*7%)=0.9798
American Calls
An American call on a non-dividend-paying
stock should never be exercised early
Theoretically, what is the relation between an
American call and European call?
What are the market prices? Why?
c + Ke -rT = p + S0
C P SN (d ) Ke rT N (d ) {Ke rT N (d ) SN (d )}
1
2
2
1
S Ke rT
Arbitrage Opportunities
Suppose that
c =3
S0 = 31
T = 0.25
r = 10%
K =30
D=0
What are the arbitrage
possibilities when
p = 2.25 ?
p=1?
Example
A company has 3 million dollar asset, of
which 1 million is financed by equity and 2
million is finance with zero coupon bond
that matures in 5 years. Assume the risk
free rate is 7% and the volatility of the
company asset is 25% per annum. What
should the bond investor require for the
final repayment of the bond? What is the
interest rate on the debt?
Discussion
From the option framework, the equity
price, as well as debt price, is determined
by the volatility of individual assets. From
CAPM framework, the equity price is
determined by the part of volatility that covary with the market. The inconsistency of
two approaches has not been resolved.
Homework
The stock price is $50. The strike price for
a European call and put option on the
stock is $50. Both options expire in 9
months. The risk free interest is 6% per
annum and the volatility is 25% per
annum. If the stock doesnt distribute
dividend, what are the call and put prices?
If the stock is expected to distribute $1.5
dividend after 5 months, what are the call
and put prices?
Homework
Three investors are bullish about Canadian stock market.
Each has ten thousand dollars to invest. Current level
of S&P/TSX Composite Index is 12000. The first
investor is a traditional one. She invests all her money
in an index fund. The second investor buys call options
with the strike price at 12000. The third investor is very
aggressive and invests all her money in call options
with strike price at 13000. Suppose both options will
mature in six months. The interest rate is 4% per
annum, compounded continuously. The implied
volatility of options is 15% per annum. For simplicity we
assume the dividend yield of the index is zero. If
S&P/TSX index ends up at 12000, 13500 and 15000
respectively after six months. What is the final wealth of
each investor? What conclusion can you draw from the
results?
Homework
Use Excel to demonstrate how the change
of S, K, T, r and affect the price of call
and put options. If you dont know how to
use Excel to calculate Black-Scholes
option prices, go to COMM423 syllabus
page on my teaching website and click on
Option calculation Excel sheet
Homework
The price of a non-dividend paying stock
is $19 and the price of a 3 month
European call option on the stock with a
strike price of $20 is $1. The risk free rate
is 5% per annum. What is the price of a 3
month European put option with a strike
price of $20?
Homework
A 6 month European call option on a
dividend paying stock is currently selling
for $5. The stock price is $64, the strike
price is $60 and a dividend of $0.80 is
expected in 1 month. The risk free interest
rate is 8% per annum for all maturities.
What opportunities are there for an
arbitrageur?
Homework
A company has 3 million dollar asset, of
which 1 million is financed by equity and 2
million is finance with zero coupon bond
that matures in 10 years. Assume the risk
free rate is 7% and the volatility of the
company asset is 25% per annum. What
should the bond investor require for the
final repayment of the bond? What is the
interest rate on the debt? How about the
volatility of the company asset is 35%?