Introduction to Framework of Analysis for water

Resources Planning
Dr. Ilyas Masih, Lecturer in Water Resources Planning,
UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands (email:
i.masih@unesco-ihe.org )

Framework of Analysis for water

Resources Planning

Analyses for water resources planning and management

generally comprise several stages.
The explicit description of these stages is referred to as the
analytical (or conceptual) framework.
Water resources planning is a multi-facetted process and
there is not one generally accepted model of how to conduct it.
In practice the process will depend upon the circumstances
and will be adapted while the planning proceeds, rather than
following a clearly defined theoretical path.
A framework of analysis is generally meant to help to structure
the planning process, and is not unique per se to water
resources planning. It also helps to develop a common
language amongst the plan stakeholders, which is an
important benefit.

Framework of Analysis: The cycle for developing and

adjusting an IWRM plan (Cap-Net, 2005)

Framework of Analysis:
An example of a
Participatory and
Integrated Planning
(PIP) procedure
(Castelletti and SonciniSessa, 2006)

Framework of Analysis: example used

by Delft Hydraulics for WRM studies

Source: Loucks et
al., 2005

Framework used in Vietnam according to

Circular 15/2009/TT-BTNMT

Framework of Analysis: Steps in the planning process (Heun and

Cauwenbergh, 2012
i.

Analysis of problems
and identification of
possible measures,
ii.
Specification of
objectives and criteria,
iii. Delineation of analysis
conditions,
iv. Projections,
v.
Analysis of possible
measures and
promising strategies,
vi. Implementation
assessment,
vii. Evaluation of selected
strategies,
viii. Presentation

Framework of Analysis:
Steps in the planning
process (Heun and
Cauwenbergh, 2012

Steps of Analysis

CONSTRAINTS:
- administrative and
political
- social and economical
- natural

INTERACTION WITH
STAKEHOLDERS AND
DECISION MAKING
AGENCIES

specification of
objectives and criteria
delineation of analysis
conditions
projections
identification and
analysis of promising
strategies
human natural
activities system
institutional
arrangements

is

Implementation
assessment
evaluation of strategies
presentation

Figure 2.3 Steps in the Plan Process (2)

LAST ROUNDS:
Emphasis on system analysis and evaluation

-state of the water

resources system
-expected / desired
developments
- mandated planning

Increasing attention for data collection and quantitative analys

TRIGGERS:

Iteration Process

FIRST ROUNDS: Emphasis on problem

analysis, objectives, analysis conditions

analysis of problems and

identification of possible
measures

Situation Analysis serves the following

purposes
to identify all possible problems and issues, the present ones, and
the future ones
to gain insight in the extent, the cause and the effects of the
problems and issue
to gain insight in the user functions of the water resources system
to help to identify all the interventions that possibly can be made
to identify all stakeholders involved in and affected by the plan
to enable the analysts and decision-makers to rank problems and
issues and to specify priority questions for the analysis
to prevent that imaginary problems are becoming issues.

Defining system boundaries (spatial and temporal)

Temporal boundary: Base year, looking ahead, 5, 10, 25 years

Stakeholder Identification
In general, stakeholders can be described based on following
characteristics (cf Kemerink, 2012):
Degree of economic, social or cultural reliance on the system
Degree of effort and interest in the management of the system
Present or potential impact of the activities of the stakeholder on the
system
Historical and cultural relationship with the system
Unique knowledge or skills for the management of the system or
resources at stake
Existing rights to land or other natural resources

Stakeholder Involvement
Stakeholder involvement can generally be defined as "allowing
people to influence the outcome of plans and working processes".
Different levels of public participation may be considered, (Arnstein ;
1969; Creighton 1999):
(1) Information: the public gets/has access to information;
(2) Consultation: the views of the public are sought;
(3) Discussion: real interaction takes place between the public and
the government;
(4) Codesigning: the public takes an active part in developing policy
or designing projects;
(5) Co-decision-making: The public shares decision-making powers
with the government;
(6) Decision-making: the public performs public tasks independently.

Example: Objective, Criteria and indicators

Table 7.1 Example of a Scorecard

Goal: Sustainable and efficient use of water resources
Strategy
Indicator Technica Economi TechEco Best?
l
c
n

Objective

Criterion

1.
Efficient and
effective use

1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4

Loss in City
Loss in Agriculture
Net Demand City
Net Demand
Agriculture

%
%
Mm3/yr

35
55
190

48
65
112

39
50
113

Low
Low
Low

Mm3/yr

133

103

174

Low

2.1
2.2

Volume diverted
Quality downstream

Mm3/yr

718

703

624

Low

Class

Good

Fair

3.1
3.2
4.1
4.2
4.3

Investment
Benefits
Income Industry
Income Agriculture
Income Fisheries

M$/m3
M$/m3
M$/year
M$/year
M$/year

0.14
0.061
23
10
11

0.10
.060
22
9
11

2.
Sustainable use
3. Financial
efficiency
4. Economic
prosperity

Sufficien
High
t
0.16
0.064
22
6
12

Low
High
High
High
High

Scenarios
Analysis conditions refer to the complete set of conditions and
assumptions under which an analysis is undertaken. They include,
among other things, the time horizon, the area boundaries, the
discount rate and base year, the hydrologic and meteorological
conditions and the projections of demand.
Climate scenarios: taking into account variability and change of hydrometeorological variables
Socio-economic scenario: population growth over time; energy prices
over time; global transport of crude petroleum; technological changes
of production processes/raw materials/types of products; amount of
leisure time; and import/export policies.
Projections of demands

Scenarios
Analysis conditions refer to the complete set of conditions and
assumptions under which an analysis is undertaken. They include,
among other things, the time horizon, the area boundaries, the
discount rate and base year, the hydrologic and meteorological
conditions and the projections of demand.
Climate scenarios: taking into account variability and change of hydrometeorological variables
Socio-economic scenario: population growth over time; energy prices
over time; global transport of crude petroleum; technological changes
of production processes/raw materials/types of products; amount of
leisure time; and import/export policies.
Projections of demands

Alternatives and management strategies

After identification of the problems, management strategies or

alternatives will be defined to allow reaching the objectives of the plan.
These alternatives can be a combination of measures related to
infrastructure (conventional and non-conventional), demand
management, land use changes and policy and institutional
arrangements.

PLAN EVALUATION

Once the alternatives are identified, the effects that each produces must
be evaluated: in other words, it is necessary to compute the values that
the indicators take on as a result of each of the alternatives being
implemented.
Data collection and analysis and use of modelling/Decision support
tools (e.g. optimization and/or simulation models) contribute in this
process
Multi-criteria analysis contribute to the final recommendations

Case Study: Room of the River

Program in the Netherlands

Triger/Main Issue: floods

The starter: Example of Room of the River Program from the Netherlands:
http://www.ruimtevoorderivier.nl/meta-navigatie/english.aspx

Corporate Clip Room for the River english - YouTube.flv

Trailer ALFA-EU project - YouTube.flv

Overdiepse Polder Journal 2012 - English - YouTube.flv

Think and analyze:

What was the problem?
What are the salient features of the project?
Was this project really required?
What are the measures included? Do they make
sense? Are these best alternatives? What
could have been done differently or in
addition to them?
Does this project fall well within the national
water policy objectives?
Does the project meet the social, economical
and environmental criteria?
Were the stakeholders properly involved?
What kind of planning process was followed?
Any other observation?

Case: Room for the River

Think and analyze:
What was the problem?
River receiving more water; increase level of the river ;
no land for river; 1953 large flood and this trigger
Dutch people to find new solutions; trigger for
the room for the Rhine river project: 1993- 1995
floods level in the Rhine river high to force
people to evacuate; more rainfall and snow; in
the future the Rhine river level might increase
due to rainfall and snow; navigation related
problem but not directly to the flood

What are the salient features of the

project?

Raising of dykes and dams is not sustainable by the

society; the flood impact will be greater
because of the development in the area;
experts came up with some creative ideas;
nine majors proposed:
1)
Lowering floodplains ( the most expensive
solution)
2)
Deepening/ excavate summer bed
3)
4)

Are these best alternatives? What could have

been done differently or in addition to
them?
Look outside the country- lessons learnt from other
experiences; larger storage built; catchment
restoration project; land use change upstream;
meanders restoration; river diversion into
secondary canals; increase the bed slope
(problem of erosion and further explored)

5)
6)
7)
8)
9)

Water storage ( not enough land to make

the storage)
Dykes relocation ( one of the promising
options)
Lowering groynes
High water channel
Removing obstacles ( one of the promising
options)
Depoldering
Dyke reinforcement

Case: Room for the River continue

Does this project fall well within the
national water policy objectives?
National security
The Netherlands is safe and liveable delta now
and in the future
Work with nature and not against nature

Room for the River falls into the Delta project and
falls well into the National Water Plan

Were the stakeholders properly

involved?

YES!
Project flexible to meet the need of the community
Negotiation to reach an agreement amongst
stakeholders
Emotions involved
success and difficulties- stakeholders participation
process needed

Does the project meet the social,

economical and environmental
criteria?

Social acceptance is present; river corridor to

improve the quality of environment;
Some options were given by the society and not
by the Government;
Social, economic and environment solution found
jointly

Who are the stakeholders involved?

Farmers; federal Government; local business;
local authority; civil society; research
organizations/experts and educational
institutes; water boards; citizens of areas
concerned; NGOs ( environmental groups);
transport industry; Rhine river committee;
riparian countries, EU and donors;

Case: Room for the River continue

What kind of planning process was
followed?
Participation approach
Ecological and spatial quality integration
approach study the system as all

Any other observation?

Guaranty of the effectiveness of the project?
Uncertainty; research; Engineering are
saying they cant guaranty lower the risk
Flood frequency analysis; Flood safety more
investments come
Any problems related to legal aspects/ issues/
compensation?
Early warning system applying for Rhine river?
Sometime floods can be beneficial!

Linking room for the river exercise

to the planning framework

Situation Analysis: Room for the River

to identify all possible problems and issues, the present ones, and
the future ones
Increasing flood risk trigger by 1993-95 flood
Climate change: sea level rice, snow melt and higher water flow, low flow for
navigation, higher rainfall

to gain insight in the extent, the cause and the effects of the
problems and issue
Destructions of properties
Displacement of people
Ecological changes
Death of people
Increase of demand protection
Land use change
Huge financial damages

Situation Analysis: Room for the River continue

to gain insight in the user functions of the water resources system

Navigation
Agriculture land use
Biodiversity
Recreation and tourism functions

to help to identify all the interventions that possibly can be made

600 options were considered follow by 9 generic solutions
Screening process

to identify all stakeholders involved in and affected by the plan

Farmers; federal Government; local business; local authority; civil society;
research organizations/experts and educational institutes; water boards; citizens
of areas concerned; NGOs ( environmental groups); transport industry; Rhine
river committee; riparian countries, EU and donors;

Situation Analysis: Room for the River continue

to enable the analysts and decision-makers to rank problems and
issues and to specify priority questions for the analysis
Setting of preliminary goals and targets based on rank problems

to prevent that imaginary problems are becoming issues

Insure that you are addressing real issues

Objectives, criteria and indicators Room

for the river
1.

A safer region (16000 m3/s safely discharged)

Capacity of the river to carry this amount of water

2.

hydrolic aspects
Water level

A more attractive region (spatial quality)

Increase tourism

Number of visitors

Satisfaction of public opinion

Percentage of people satisfied

Biodiversity

Number of species fish and vegetation

Water quality

Sedimentation quantity (mg/l)

Objectives, criteria and indicators Room

for the river
3.

To increase the economic and social development

Level of investments businesses and government

No damage to navigation industries or others

Import/export revenue (euros/year)

Higher net benefit

Cost benefit ratio

GDP growth

Protection of culture and historical value

Number of historical sites damaged

Recreation activities are increased

4.

Euros per year

Infrastructure built

Number of parks or swimming pools

Revenues from recreation

Dealing with climate change

Flexibility and robust against climate changes scenarios

Resilience how quick we can recover from an event

Increasing room for the river

Increased space for the river

Plan evaluation Room of the R

Once the alternatives are identified, the effects that each produces
must be evaluated: in other words, it is necessary to compute the
values that the indicators take on as a result of each of the
alternatives being implemented.
Data collection and analysis and use of modeling/Decision support
tools (e.g. optimization and/or simulation models) contribute in this
process
2D model used
Planning kit

Multi-criteria analysis contribute to the final recommendations

2 strategies
Costs 1.7 billion euros
Costs 2.7 billion euros
Mix of the two costs 2.3 billion euros (chosen)

Thanks for your attention

Time for further questions and discussion