Primavera PERT Master

The Risk Analysis Tool

Presentation Agenda
What is PERT Master ?
Project Risk Management Concepts
Introductory Demonstrations
Importing from Primavera
Quick Risk Templates
Running a Risk Analysis
Risk Register with schedule
Advanced Risk Management
Schedule cost loading techniques
Probabilistic cash flow and profitability
breakeven
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What is PERT Master ?

Maximize
Profit
Strategic Managemen
Decisions t Reserve
Maximize Mitigation
Cost/Effort
Return
Proper
Contingency
Allocation

Budget /
Schedule
Minimize
Uncertainty Estimate

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Total Project Cost

PERT Master Focus

Specialist in Project Risk
Management
Full Lifecycle risk solution
Faithful to project scheduling
PERT Master Vision
Improved decision making
through project intelligence

Life Value Proposition

PHASE
PHASE 2
1
Opportuni Alternative
selection
ty (e.g. oil
(rig A/B/C,
own)

field)

Wild Guess
(WAG)

-15% to
+30%
Estimate

PHASE 3

PHASE 4

FEED Front

Execution

End
Engineering
Design

+/-10%
Estimate

High estimate uncertainty

Little Known about risk events
Market/Inv
Capital
Schedule
estment
Investment
based cost
risk
risk analysis risk analysis
analysis
DOING RIGHT PROJECTS

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S
A
N
C
T
I
O
N

Detailed Eng.
& Procurement

PHASE
5
Operation
s Detailed
Eng. &
Procurement

No
+/- 3%
Estimate
Estimate
Uncertaint
y
Estimate uncertainty
Low
Discrete risk events
Risk event /
Risk event
register
monitoring
analysis
DOING PROJECTS RIGHT
PLAN YOUR WORK
WORK YOUR PLAN

Life Value Proposition

CORPORATE
REVENUE
ANALYSIS

PORTFOLIO
ANALYSIS

PHASE
PHASE 2
1
Opportuni Alternative
selection
ty (e.g. oil
field)

WAG

(rig A/B/C,
own)

-15% to
+30%
Estimate

PHASE 3

PHASE 4

FEED Front

Execution

End
Engineering
Design

+/-10%
Estimate

High estimate uncertainty

Little Known about risk events
Market/Inv
Capital
Schedule
estment
Investment
based cost
risk
risk analysis risk analysis
analysis
DOING RIGHT PROJECTS

PROJECT ANALYSIS

S
A
N
C
T
I
O
N

Detailed Eng.
& Procurement

Eng. &
Procurement

No
+/- 3%
Estimate
Estimate
Uncertaint
y
Estimate uncertainty
Low
Discrete risk events
Risk event /
Risk event
register
monitoring
analysis
DOING PROJECTS RIGHT
PLAN YOUR WORK

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PHASE
5
Operation
s Detailed

WORK YOUR PLAN

Risk Vs Schedule
Realistic /Most Likely
Aggressive / Optimistic
Cautious / Pessimistic
Scale to Fit

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Types of Risks
Uncertainty

PERT Master handles uncertainty by using three

point estimate distributions minimum, most likely
and maximum
Risk Events
PERT Master handles risk events by using risk
register to enter possible events along with
estimates of each ones probability and potential
impacts on duration, cost and project quality

Uncertainty + Risk Events = Total Ris

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Types of Risk - Uncertainty

E.g. How long does it take to do
wiring?

Duratio
n/Cost

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Types of Risk
Activity A
Activity B

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E.g. Do we need to replace old

wiring?
Activity
C

Branching Probabilistic &

Scenario:
Renovate the Premises
Conditional
Remove wiring (50% probability)
Repair wiring (40% probability)
Install new wiring (10% probability)

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Template Quick Risk

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Types Of Risks - Risk Events

Single Impact
Series of Impact
Multiple exclusive impacts
Multiple impacts to multiple activities

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Risk Register

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Risk Register

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Monte Carlo Simulation

Range forms an envelope
One segment is selected for each envelope
Hidden critical paths revealed

7 8 91 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Max
7
Mi
Likely
n

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Monte Carlo Simulation

Range forms an envelope
One segment is selected for each envelope
Hidden critical paths revealed

ITERATION
1
2

10 DAYS
9 DAYS

14 DAYS
3
17 DAYS
4
11 DAYS
5
7
6 DAYS
7 10 DAYS
12 DAYS
8
6
9
DAYS

7 8 91 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Max
7
Mi
Likely
n

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PERT Master Risk Analysis

Risk Ready State
Methodology
Schedule : Sound logic

Scheduling errors
Risk Inputs
Estimate Uncertainty:
Quick Risk
Risk Events: risk register
Risk Impacts
Map risks to tasks
Risk Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation
Risk hot spots

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PERT Master Risk Analysis

Methodology
Risk Response
Determination of Contingency
Mitigation Scenarios
Probabilistic cashflow

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Plan Validation: Schedule Check

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Initial Risk Inputs Quick Risk

Analysis

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Accuracy with Ease

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Risk Outputs

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