The Correlation Between the

PSAT and SAT

M. Wang & A. Milam
Division of Accountability,
Assessment, and Research
1

Questions
Are PSAT and SAT strongly correlated?
A study done in Montgomery County Public Schools
concluded that students will have honor/AP potential, if
they score at least 44 on PSAT Verbal or 45 on PSAT Math.
Are 44 on PSAT Verbal and 45 on PSAT Math an indication
of good SAT scores for Anne Arundel County Public
Schools students?
What PSAT scores correspond to good SAT scores for
AACPS students?
Is PSAT a good predictor of student performance on the
SAT?

Background

A total of 7,043 high school students who took the PSAT in October 2005 and
the SAT after October 2005 were included in the study.
The score of each subject (Verbal, Math, and Writing) on the PSAT ranges from
20 to 80.
The score of each subject on the SAT ranges from 200 to 800.
The 2008 national college-bound seniors' average SAT scores are:
- Verbal: 502
- Mathematics: 515
- Writing: 494
The 2008 average PSAT scores for a national sample of 1,002,119 11th graders
and 1,009,739 10th graders are:
- Verbal: 47 for the 11th graders and 42 for the 10th graders
- Mathematics: 49 for the 11th graders and 44 for the 10th graders
- Writing: 46 for the 11th graders and 41 for the 10th graders
(Reference: http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/understandingpsat-nmsqt-scores.pdf)
3

Correlation Between the PSAT and SAT

SAT Score
Correlation Coefficient
Verbal
PSAT
Score

Math
Writing
Verbal + Math

Verbal

Math

Writing

Verbal +Math

Verbal + Math + Writing

0.817
0.816
0.761
0.858

Verbal + Math + Writing

0.866

The PSAT and SAT scores are strongly correlated.

4

The Mean Scores of the PSAT and SAT

(AACPS)
Mean Score
PSAT Verbal Score

45

PSAT Math Score

48

PSAT Writing Skills Score

47

Combined PSAT Score

140

SAT Verbal Score

512

SAT Math Score

527

SAT Writing Score

500

Combined SAT Score

1539

Highest Among Verbal, Math, and Writing

Lowest Among Verbal, Math, and Writing

Students had the highest mean score on the Math portion and the lowest mean
score on the Verbal portion of the PSAT.
Students had the highest mean score on the Math portion and the lowest mean
score on the Writing portion of the SAT.

The Mean of the Combined SAT Score - By Combined

PSAT Score Range
The Combined PSAT
Verbal, Math, and
Writing Score

60-75

76-90

91-105

106-120

121-135

136-150

Number of Students

30

121

561

1105

1421

1400

The Mean of the

Combined SAT Verbal,
Math, and Writing Score

1126

1063

1148*

1292*

1439*

1581*

The Combined PSAT

Verbal, Math, and
Writing Score

151-165

166-180

181-195

196-210

211-225

226-240

Number of Students

1183

704

342

122

44

The Mean of the

Combined SAT Verbal,
Math, and Writing Score

1711*

1830*

1944*

2074*

2182*

2197*

* For students who scored higher than 90 on the combined PSAT, the higher the combined
PSAT score range, the higher the mean of the combined SAT score.
6

Deriving the Corresponding PSAT Scores to the SAT

Scores Using Regression Analysis
SAT Verbal
500
Corresponding
PSAT
Verbal Score

44*

550

SAT Math

600

50

56

500
Corresponding
PSAT
Math Score

45*

550
50

SAT Writing

600
56

Corresponding
PSAT
Writing Score

SAT Verbal + Math

1000
Corresponding PSAT
Verbal + Math Score

88

1100
100

550

600

47

53

60

SAT Verbal + Math + Writing

1200
111

500

Corresponding PSAT
Verbal + Math + Writing
Score

1500

1650

1800

135

152

169

* Montgomery County Public Schools PSAT cut scores (44 on Verbal and 45 on Math)
for AP potential correspond to 500 points on the SAT Verbal and Math for AACPS students.
The corresponding PSAT cut scores to 600 on each subject of the SAT are 56 for Verbal, 56 for
Math, and 60 for Writing.
The corresponding PSAT cut scores to 550 on each subject of the SAT are 50 for Verbal, 50 for
Math, and 53 for Writing.
The corresponding combined PSAT cut score to 1800 on the combined SAT is 169.

Predicting Student Performance on the SAT Verbal

Using Regression Derived PSAT Verbal Scores
PSAT Verbal < 44

PSAT Verbal >= 44

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Verbal < 500

2522

78.2%*

565

14.8%

SAT Verbal >= 500

702

21.8%

3254

85.2%*

PSAT Verbal < 50

PSAT Verbal >= 50

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Verbal < 550

4036

85.2%

416

18.0%

SAT Verbal >= 550

699

14.8%

1892

82.0%

PSAT Verbal < 56

PSAT Verbal >= 56

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Verbal < 600

5356

88.9%

189

18.6%

SAT Verbal >= 600

669

11.1%

829

81.4%

* Students had a 85.2% chance of scoring 500 or above on the SAT Verbal, if they have scored
at least 44 on the PSAT Verbal, and a 78.2% chance of scoring below 500 on the SAT Verbal, if
they have scored lower than 44 on the PSAT Verbal.

Predicting Student Performance on the SAT Math Using

Regression Derived PSAT Math Scores
PSAT Math < 45

PSAT Math >= 45

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Math < 500

2104

77.4%*

576

13.3%

SAT Math >= 500

615

22.6%

3748

86.7%*

PSAT Math < 50

PSAT Math >= 50

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Math < 550

3303

83.3%

655

21.3%

SAT Math >= 550

662

16.7%

2423

78.7%

PSAT Math < 56

PSAT Math >= 56

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Math < 600

4759

87.6%

399

24.7%

SAT Math >= 600

671

12.4%

1214

75.3%

* Students had an 86.7% chance of scoring 500 or above on the SAT Math, if they have scored
at least 45 on the PSAT Math, and a 77.4% chance of scoring below 500 on the SAT Math, if
they have scored lower than 45 on the PSAT Math.
9

Predicting Student Performance on the SAT Writing

Using Regression Derived PSAT Writing Scores
PSAT Writing < 47

PSAT Writing >= 47

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Writing < 500

2807

75.2%

537

16.3%

SAT Writing >= 500

927

24.8%

2765

83.7%

PSAT Writing < 53

PSAT Writing >= 53

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Writing < 550

4236

84.1%*

496

24.8%

SAT Writing >= 550

802

15.9%

1502

75.2%*

PSAT Writing < 60

PSAT Writing >= 60

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Writing < 600

5605

89.5%

226

29.2%

SAT Writing >= 600

656

10.5%

549

70.8%

* For example, students had a 75.2% chance of scoring 550 or above on the SAT Writing, if they
have scored at least 53 on the PSAT Writing, and a 84.1% chance of scoring below 550 on the SAT
Writing, if they have scored lower than 53 on the PSAT Writing.
10

Predicting Student Performance on the Combined SAT Verbal and Math Using
Combined PSAT Verbal and Math Scores Derived by Linear Regression
PSAT Verbal + Math < 88

PSAT Verbal + Math >= 88

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Verbal + Math < 1000

2283

81.8%

566

13.3%

SAT Verbal + Math >= 1000

507

18.2%

3687

86.7%

PSAT Verbal + Math < 100

PSAT Verbal + Math >= 100

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Verbal + Math < 1100

3894

86.5%*

410

16.1%

SAT Verbal + Math >= 1100

608

13.5%

2131

83.9%*

PSAT Verbal + Math < 111

PSAT Verbal + Math >= 111

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Verbal + Math < 1200

5240

90.5%

276

22.0%

SAT Verbal + Math >= 1200

547

9.5%

980

78.0%

* For example, students had an 83.9% chance of scoring 1100 or above on the combined SAT
Verbal and Math, if they have scored at least 100 on the combined PSAT Verbal and Math, and a
86.5% chance of scoring below 1000 on the combined SAT Verbal and Math, if they have scored
lower than 100 on the combined PSAT Verbal and Math.

11

Predicting Student Performance on the Combined SAT Verbal, Math, and

Writing Using Combined PSAT Verbal, Math, and Writing Scores Derived by
Linear Regression
PSAT Verbal + Math
+ Writing < 135

PSAT Verbal + Math +

Writing >= 135

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Verbal + Math + Writing < 1500

2578

82.0%

481

12.4%

SAT Verbal + Math + Writing >= 1500

567

18.0%

3410

87.6%

PSAT Verbal + Math

+ Writing < 152

PSAT Verbal + Math +

Writing >= 152

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Verbal + Math + Writing < 1650

4119

87.2%

373

16.1%

SAT Verbal + Math + Writing >= 1650

602

12.8%

1942

83.9%

PSAT Verbal + Math

+ Writing < 169

PSAT Verbal + Math +

Writing >= 169

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

SAT Verbal + Math + Writing < 1800

5496

91.7%

220

21.1%

SAT Verbal + Math + Writing >= 1800

498

8.3%

822

78.9%
12

Correct Percent of Prediction of Using the Linear Regression

Derived PSAT Scores to Predict Student Performance on the SAT
PSAT Cut Score

V 44

V 50

V 56

M 45

M 50

M 56

W 47

W 53

W 60

SAT Cut Score

V 500

V 550

V 600

M 500

M 550

M 600

W 500

W 550

W 600

Correct Percent
of Prediction

82.0%*

84.2%

87.8%

83.1%

81.3%

84.8%

79.2%

81.5%

87.5%

PSAT Cut Score

V + M = 88

V + M = 100

V + M =111

V+M+
W = 135

V+M+
W = 152

V+M+
W = 169

SAT Cut Score

V + M = 1000

V + M = 1100

V + M = 1200

V+M+
W = 1500

V+M+
W = 1650

V+M+
W = 1800

Correct Percent
of Prediction

84.7%*

85.6%

88.3%

85.1%

86.1%

89.8%

Note that V standards for Verbal, M stands for Math, and W for Writing.
* For example, the correct percent of prediction using the scenario that students scoring at least 44 on the
PSAT Verbal would score at least 500 on the SAT Verbal, and students scoring lower than 44 on the PSAT
Verbal would score lower than 500 on the SAT Verbal is 82.0%.
Note that 46.2% of the students scored 500 or above on the SAT Verbal and scored 44 or above on the PSAT
Verbal, and that 35.8% of the students scored below 500 on the SAT Verbal and scored lower than 44 on the
PSAT Verbal. So the correct percent of prediction is 82.0% (46.2% + 35.8%).
13

Disaggregated Results By NCLB Group

14

Percent of Test Takers By Special Service Group

FARMS

Special Education

ESOL

Number of
Students

Percent of
Students

Number of
Students

Percent of
Students

Number of
Students

Percent of
Students

No

6898

97.9%

6911

98.1%

7043

100.0%

Yes

145

2.1%

132

1.9%

0.0%

Total

7043

100.0%

7043

100.0%

7043

100.0%

Very small percent of the PSAT and SAT test takers belonged to the special services
groups.
None of the 7,043 PSAT and SAT test takers were ESOL students.

15

Number and Percent of the SAT and PSAT Test

Takers By Ethnicity
Ethnicity

Number of Students

Percent of Students

Asian

333

4.7

African American

1119

15.9

Hispanic

147

2.1

American Indian

25

.4

White

5419

76.9

Total

7043

100.0

16

The Mean Scores of the PSAT and SAT By NCLB

Ethnicity
Asian

African
American
Hispanic
White FARMS
American
Indian

Special
Education

PSAT Verbal Score

45

39

42

44

47

37

36

PSAT Math Score

51

40

44

47

49

41

39

PSAT Writing Skills Score

47

41

44

46

48

41

38

Combined PSAT Score

142

120

130

137

144

119

113

SAT Verbal Score

510

440

483

498

528

443

401

SAT Math Score

554

442

487

511

544

457

417

SAT Writing Score

498

430

477

457

515

439

380

Combined SAT Score

1562

1312

1447

1467

1587

1,339

1198

Highest Among Verbal, Math, and Writing

Lowest Among Verbal, Math, and Writing

Most NCLB groups had the highest mean scores on the Math portion and each NCLB group
had the lowest mean score on the Verbal portion of the PSAT.
For each NCLB group, students had the highest mean score on the Math portion and the
lowest mean score on the Writing portion of the SAT.

17

The Mean of the Combined SAT Score - By

Combined PSAT Score Range and NCLB Group
Group

60-75

76-90

91-105

106-120

121-135

136-150

Mean

Mean

Mean

Mean

Mean

Mean

Countywide

30

1126

121

1063

561

1148

1105

1292

1421

1439

1400

1581

Asian

970

1066

25

1156

50

1258

53

1457

76

1580

African
American

18

984

59

983

232

1099

293

1224

263

1399

142

1530

1130

17

1069

32

1312

37

1418

28

1571

1060

1337

1442

1610

Hispanic
American
Indian
White

11

1374

53

1148

283

1194

727

1320

1063

1449

1151

1587

FARMS

1003

13

1072

33

1135

40

1266

21

1420

13

1592

Special
Education

853

14

927

33

1020

38

1202

20

1366

10

1530

Higher than countywide average

Lower than countywide average
Countywide average or same as countywide average

18

The Mean of the Combined SAT Score - By

Combined PSAT Score Range and NCLB Group
Group

151-165

166-180

181-195

196-210

211-225

226-240

Mean

Mean

Mean

Mean

Mean

Mean

1183

1711

704

1830

342

1944

122

2074

44

2182

2197

Asian

53

1729

41

1820

15

1976

11

2110

2100

African
American

70

1677

25

1811

12

1851

1715

2140

Hispanic

19

1683

1865

1930

2255

American
Indian

1599

1730

White

1034

1714

631

1832

311

1946

107

2074

40

2188

2197

FARMS

13

1715

1811

2070

1530

Special
Education

1594

1633

2040

Countywide

Higher than countywide average

Lower than countywide average
Countywide average or same as countywide average

19

Predicting Whether or Not Students Scoring At Least or Lower than 1500 on the
Combined SAT Using 135 As the Cut Score on the Combined PSAT By NCLB Group
Combined PSAT Verbal, Math, and Writing Score
Group

Asian
African
American
Hispanic
American
Indian
White
FARMS
Special
Education

Combined SAT
Verbal, Math,
and Writing

< (Less than) 135

>= (Greater Than Or Equal To) 135

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

< 1500

111

84.7%

24

11.9%

>= 1500

20

15.3%

177

88.1%

< 1500

787

92.5%

68

25.5%

>= 1500

64

7.5%

199

74.5%

< 1500

72

82.8%

15.0%

>= 1500

15

17.2%

51

85.0%

< 1500

72.7%

21.4%

>= 1500

27.3%

11

78.6%

< 1500

1600

77.5%

377

11.3%

>= 1500

465

22.5%

2972

88.7%

< 1500

100

93.5%

7.9%

>= 1500

6.5%

35

92.1%

< 1500

105

97.2%

37.5%

>= 1500

2.8%

15

62.5%

20

Predicting Whether or Not Students Scoring At Least or Lower than 1650 on the
Combined SAT Using 152 As the Cut Score on the Combined PSAT - By NCLB Group
Combined PSAT Verbal, Math, and Writing Score
Group

Asian
African
American
Hispanic
American
Indian
White
FARMS
Special
Education

Combined SAT
Verbal, Math,
and Writing

< (Less than) 152

>= (Greater Than Or Equal To) 152

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

< 1650

180

84.5%

16

13.4%

>= 1650

33

15.5%

103

86.6%

< 1650

980

96.8%

30

28.3%

>= 1650

32

3.2%

76

71.7%

< 1650

106

89.8%

27.6%

>= 1650

12

10.2%

21

72.4%

< 1650

15

93.8%

44.4%

>= 1650

6.2%

55.6%

< 1650

2838

84.4%

315

15.4%

>= 1650

524

15.6%

1737

84.6%

< 1650

119

96.7%

31.8%

>= 1650

3.3%

15

68.2%

< 1650

120

99.2%

63.6%

>= 1650

.8%

36.4%

21

Predicting Whether or Not Students Scoring At Least or Lower than 1800 on the
Combined SAT Using 169 As the Cut Score on the Combined PSAT - By NCLB Group
Combined PSAT Verbal, Math, and Writing Score
Race

Asian
African
American
Hispanic
American
Indian
White
FARMS
Special
Education

Combined SAT
Verbal, Math,
and Writing

< (Less than) 169

>= (Greater Than Or Equal To) 169

Count

Col %

Count

Col %

< 1800

245

88.8%

10

17.9%

>= 1800

31

11.2%

46

82.1%

< 1800

1062

98.2%

14

38.9%

>= 1800

20

1.8%

22

61.1%

< 1800

133

96.4%

22.2%

>= 1800

3.6%

77.8%

< 1800

21

95.5%

100.0%

>= 1800

4.5%

< 1800

4035

90.1%

191

20.4%

>= 1800

441

9.9%

747

79.6%

< 1800

135

97.1%

50.0%

>= 1800

2.9%

50.0%

< 1800

129

99.2%

>= 1800

.8%

22
2

100.0%

Correct Percent of Prediction of Using the Combined PSAT

Scores to Predict Student Performance on the Combined SAT
PSAT Cut
Score

V + M + W = 135

V + M + W = 152

V + M + W = 169

SAT Cut
Score

V + M + W = 1500

V + M + W = 1650

V + M + W = 1800

Group

Correct
Percent of
Prediction

87

88

84

85

93

91

85

95

86

85

92

94

88

97

95

88

95

99

A = Asian, B = African American, H = Hispanic, W = White, F = FARMS, S = Special Education

The correct percent of prediction range from 84% to 99%.

23

Summary
The PSAT and SAT Scores are strongly correlated.
For students who scored higher than 90 on the combined PSAT, the higher
the combined PSAT score range, the higher the mean of the combined SAT
score.
Regression Analysis
The corresponding PSAT cut scores to 500 on each subject of the SAT are 44
for Verbal, 45 for Math, and 47 for Writing.
Montgomery County Public Schools PSAT cut scores (44 on Verbal and 45
on Math) for AP potential correspond to 500 points on the SAT Verbal and
Math for AACPS students.
The corresponding PSAT cut scores to 550 on each subject of the SAT are 50
for Verbal, 50 for Math, and 53 for Writing.
The corresponding PSAT cut scores to 600 on each subject of the SAT are 56
for Verbal, 56 for Math, and 60 for Writing.
The corresponding combined PSAT cut score to 1800 on the combined SAT
is 169.
The corresponding combined PSAT cut scores to 1500, 1650, and 1800
points on the combined SAT are 135, 152, and 169, respectively.
24

Summary
Countywide Prediction Results
Students had an 85.2% chance of scoring 500 or above on the SAT Verbal, if they
have scored at least 44 on the PSAT Verbal, and a 78.2% chance of scoring below
500 on the SAT Verbal, if they have scored lower than 44 on the PSAT Verbal.
Students had an 86.7% chance of scoring 500 or above on the SAT Math, if they
have scored at least 45 on the PSAT Math, and a 77.4% chance of scoring below
500 on the SAT Math, if they have scored lower than 45 on the PSAT Math.
Students had an 83.7% chance of scoring 500 or above on the SAT Writing, if they
have scored at least 47 on the PSAT Writing and a 75.2% chance of scoring below
500 on the SAT Writing, if they have scored lower than 47 on the PSAT Writing.
Students had an 87.6% (83.9%, 78.9%) chance of scoring 1500 (1650, 1800) or
above on the combined SAT, if they have scored at least 135 (152, 169) on the
combined PSAT, and an 82.0% (87.2%, 91.7%) chance of scoring below 1500
(1650, 1800) on the combined SAT, if they have scored lower than 135 (152, 169)
on the combined PSAT.
The correct percent of predictions of using regression derived PSAT scores to
predict student scoring at least or lower than 500, 550, or 600 on an SAT subject
and at least or lower than 1500, 1650, or 1800 on the combined SAT range from
79.2% to 89.8%.
25

Summary
Disaggregated Results
Of the students who took both SAT and PSAT, 2.1% were FARMS
students, 1.9% were Special Education students, and none were ESOL
students.
White students average combined SAT score in each 15-points-increment
range of the combined PSAT was higher than the county average in the
range, while African Americans average combined SAT score in each
range of the combined PSAT score is lower than the county average in the
range.
The regression derived countywide PSAT cut scores are good predictors of
student performance on the SAT for each subgroup.

26

Appendix: Demographics of the Students

Scoring Average or High on the PSAT Without
Taking the SAT Before They Graduated from
High Schools

27

Frequency Table of the Combined PSAT Scores for

Students Who Took the PSAT Without Taking the SAT
Before Graduating from High Schools
Combined
PSAT Score

Number of
Students

Percent of
Students

60-75

27

1.9

76-90

184

13.0

91-105

334

23.6

106-120

358

25.3

121-135

244

17.3

136-150

147

10.4

151-165

87

6.2

166-180

25

1.8*

180-195

.4*

196-210

.1*

Total

1414

100.0

Below 136

136 or Above

* Only 2.3% of the Non-SAT takers scored

166 or higher (very high) on the PSAT.
267 (18.9%) of the Non-SAT takers scored
average to high on the PSAT.
Note that there were 1879 students scoring at
least 136 on the 2005 combined PSAT and 267
(14.2%) of them did not take the SAT before
they graduated from high schools.
28

Number of the Non-SAT Takers Who Scored at Least

136 on the PSAT by Ethnicity and Gender
Race
Asian

African
American

Hispanic

White

All

Gender

Number of Students

Percent of Students

Female

1.5

Male

1.1

Total

2.6

Female

12

4.5

Male

18

6.7

Total

30

11.2

Female

0.4

Male

1.5

Total

1.9

Female

103

38.6

Male

122

45.7

Total

225

84.3

Female

120

44.9

Male

147

55.1

Total

267

100.0

Note that none of these

students were FARMS or
ESOL students.

29