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Testing
MTH 2212
Recap
In the previous chapter we illustrated how to
construct a confidence interval estimate of a
parameter from a sample data. However, many
problems in engineering require that we decide
whether to accept or to reject a statement about
some parameter.
The statement is called a hypothesis, and the
decision making procedure about the hypothesis is
called hypothesis testing.
it is important to note that hypotheses are always
statements about the population or distribution
under study, not statements about sample.
Statistical Hypothesis
-The null hypothesis (H0 ) is a statistical
hypothesis that states that there is no difference
between a parameter and a specified value, or
that there is no difference between two
parameters.
- The alternative hypothesis (H1) is a statistical
hypothesis that states the existence of a
difference between a parameter and a specified
value, or states that there is a difference between
two parameters.
Examples
Eg 4: A researcher
thinks that if
expectant mothers
use vitamin pills, the
birth weight of the
babies will increase.
The average of the
birth weights of the
population is 3.2 kg.
Eg 5: An engineer
hypothesizes that the
mean number of
defects can be
decreased in a
manufacturing process
of compact discs by
using robots instead of
humans for certain
tasks. The mean
number of defective
discs per 1000 is 18.
Test of Statistical
Hypotheses
For Example:
Let the null hypothesis H0: This drug will cure an
illness.
A Type I error would be concluding that the drug
does not work when it actually does.
A Type II error would conclude that the drug does
work when it actually doesn't.
Examples
Eg
7: The burning rate of a solid propellant used to power
aircrew escape system is approximately normally
distributed. The true mean burning rate is 50 cm/sec and
the standard deviation of the burning rate is 2.5 cm/sec.
The manufacturer wishes to test H0 : =50 cm/sec against
H1 : 5 cm/sec using n = 10 specimens.
(i)If the acceptance region is defined as 4 find type I error
().
(ii)If the acceptance region is defined as 4 find type II error
() where the true mean burning rate is 52 cm/sec.
(iii)If the acceptance region is defined as 4 find type II error
() where the true mean burning rate is 52 cm/sec and
the number of specimens n = 16.
POWER
Power is a very descriptive and concise measure of the
sensitivity of a statistical test; ability of the test to detect
differences.
The power of statistical test is the probability of rejecting the null
hypothesis H0 when the alternative hypothesis is true. The power
computed as 1 .
Eg 11: Consider the propellant burning rate problem when we
are testing H0 : =50 cm/sec versus H1 : 50 cm/sec. Suppose
that the mean is = 52. When n = 10, we found that =
0.2643, so the power of this test is 1 = 1-0.2643 = 0.7357.
The sensitivity of the test for detecting the difference between
a mean burning rate of 50cm/sec and 52 cm/sec is 0.7357.
P-values
The P-value is the actual area under the standard
normal distribution curve (or some other curve,
depending on what statistical test is being used)
representing the probability of a particular sample
mean if the null hypothesis is true. In this approach
we calculate the p-value for the test, which is
defined as the smallest level of significance at which
the given null hypothesis is rejected. Using this pvalue, we compare the value of p with and make a
The p-value
is the smallest significance level at which the null
decision.
Example
13: Find the p-value for each of the
Eg
hypothesis tests:
Example
Eg
14: Find the p-value for each of
the hypothesis tests with
Eg 21
a) Consider the rocket propellant problem in the
above Eg 11. Suppose that the true burning
rate is 49cm/sec. What is for the two sided
test with =0.05, =2, n=25?
b)Suppose that the analyst wishes to design the
test so that if the true mean burning rate is
differs from 50 cm/sec by as much as
1cm/sec. What sample size would be required
to ensure that does not exceed 0.10?