Introduction & Overview

Paulus Tangkere
Industrial Model Simulation
Session 1

Course Goals

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This course is designed to help students

understand the requirements for the
successful development and use of
simulation models, especially to visualize,
analyze and improve the performance of
manufacturing and service systems.

Course Objectives

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To develop understanding on processes involved

in a simulation project.
To improve skills to perform simulation
experiments, analyze the results and draw
conclusions to collect and analyze data required
for a simulation model.
To gain experience on how to manage a
simulation project successfully, especially to
ensure that a simulation model has been verified
and validated so there is sufficient confidence to
use the model in decision-making.

Syllabus
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Introduction and Overview

Basic Simulation Process
Steps in Simulation Modeling
Simulation Techniques
Verification and Validation
Simulation Data Analysis
Review I

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Syllabus-cont
8. Monte Carlo Simulation
9. Random Number Generator
10.Group Presentation I
11.Group Presentation II
12.Group Presentation III
13.Improving Simulation Validity and
Credibility
14.Review II

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References

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Law, Averill M., Simulation Modeling

& Analysis, 4th Edition. McGraw-Hill
International Edition, 2007.
Chung, Christopher A., Simulation
modeling handbook : a practical
approach. Industrial and
Manufacturing Engineering Series, CRC
Press LLC, 2004
Other references.

Methodology

Lectures
Readings
Case Studies
Assignments

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Grading
Midterm
Final
Others

: 35%
: 35%
: 30%

Assignments individual and group

Class Participation
(Course) Session Summary
Quiz pretests and posttests

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Assignment Submission
No copy-paste.
Submit electronically (email)

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to ptforbu@yahoo.com
Use specified format: kmk-nim/kel-tgs
both in Subject and File Name
2 (two) days before next class.

Group Presentations a week before

schedule

Group
Consists of max. 5 students
Responsibilities
Distributed
Team
Personal/Individual

Internal communications

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Communication
ptforbu@yahoo.com
Format: kmk-nim/kel-tgs
kmk = kode mata kuliah
nim = nomor induk mahasiswa atau
kel = kelompok
tgs = nama tugas

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What is Simulation?

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Simulation means imitation of

reality.
The purpose of simulation in the
business world is to understand the
behavior of a system.
Before making many important
decisions, we simulate the result to
insure that we are doing the right
thing.

Modeling and Simulation p

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Real System
Model
Validation
Simulation

Computer
Model

Concept
Modeling

Computer
Programming

Model Verification

Hypothesis
Tests

Concept
Model

Why Simulation

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Gaining insight into the operation of a

system
Developing operating or resource
policies to improve system
performance
Testing new concepts and/or systems
before implementation
Gaining information without disturbing
the actual system

When to use
Simulation

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Experimentation is not possible.

Actually, if we can do a real experiment,
the results would obviously be better than
simulation.
The analytical solution procedure is
not known. If analytical formulas are
known then we can find the actual
expected value of the results quickly by
using the formulas. In simulation we can
hope to get the same results after
simulating thousands of times.

Types of simulation
Deterministic and probabilistic
Simulation

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Deterministic simulation is used when

process is very complex or consists multiple
stages with complicated (but known)
procedural interactions between them;
Probabilistic simulation is used when one
or more of the independent variables is
probabilistic i.e. it follows a certain
probability distribution.

Types of
simulation
Time dependent and independent
simulation

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In time independent simulation, it is not important

to known exactly when the event is likely to occur.
E.g. we know demand of 3 units per day but dont
know when during the day the item was
demanded.
In time dependent it is important to know the
precise time when the event is likely to occur. In a
queuing situation the precise time of arrival of
customer must be known (to know if the customer
will have to wait)

Types of
simulation

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Visual Interactive Simulation uses

computer graphic displays to present the
consequences of change in the value of
input variation in the model. The
decisions are implemented interactively
while the simulation is running. The
decision maker keep track of
development of model on a graphic
interface and can alter the simulation as
it progress.

Types of simulation

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Business Games several participants who

play a role in a game that simulates a
realistic competitive situation. Individual or
teams compete to achieve their goals in
competition with the other individual or team.
Corporate and Financial Simulation
used in corporate planning, especially the
financial aspects. The model integrate
production, finance, marketing, and possibly
other functions, into one model.

Simulation in Business p

Simulation
Simulation
Simulation
Simulation
Simulation

of
of
of
of
of

Inventory Problem
Queuing Problem
investment problem
Maintenance Problem
PERT Problem

Advantages of
Simulation

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Solves problems that are difficult or

impossible to solve mathematically

Allows experimentation without risk

to actual system
Compresses time to show long-term
effects
Serves as training tool for decision
makers

Limitations of
Simulation

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Does not produce optimum solution

Model development may be difficult

Computer run time may be
substantial
Monte Carlo simulation only
applicable to random systems