Reprsentation des zones cultives tropicales

dans le modle de surface continentale de lIPSL, ORCHIDEE:

apport ltude des interactions climat/agriculture
Alexis BERG
Thse ralise au:
(1)

LSCE IPSL, Paris, France (Directrice de thse: Nathalie de Noblet)

(2)

LOCEAN IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France (co-directeur: Benjamin Sultan)

The crop / climate system

Studying the relationships between climate and agriculture raises a twofold issue:

The crop / climate system

Studying the relationships between climate and agriculture raises a twofold issue:

IMPACT of climate on crop productivity

Climate

mean productivity

Weather

interannual variability

Impact of climate variability, impact of climate change ?

The crop / climate system

Studying the relationships between climate and agriculture raises a twofold issue:

FEEDBACK of croplands expansion to climate

biogeochemical effects (e.g., CO2)

biogeophysical effects: albedo, evaporation, roughness

Foley et
al. (2003)

The crop / climate system

Studying the relationships between climate and agriculture raises a twofold issue:

FEEDBACK of croplands expansion to climate

biogeochemical effects (e.g., CO2)

biogeophysical effects: albedo, evaporation, roughness

Cropland area:
~ 12%

Ramankutty et al., 2008

Impact of land-use change on climate ?

Crop / climate interactions in the TROPICS

Tropical regions (Africa): vulnerable to climate change

dependence on climate
poverty
demographic pressure

Crop / climate interactions in the TROPICS

Tropical regions (Africa): vulnerable to climate change

dependence on climate
poverty
demographic pressure

Present

Future

Cereals per capita

Kg/capita

Estimates ~ by 2050, food production

demand
x 2 in Asia and Latin America
x 5 in Africa

Africa

1960

2000

1980

Developed countries
World
Latin / Caribbean

Africa
Asia developing

Population increase > food supply increase

Importance of climate change

impacts on crop yields in the
TROPICS (AFRICA)

Crop / climate interactions in the TROPICS

Past land-use change (1992-1860)

Future land-use change (2100-1992)

Davin et al. 2007

A2 socio-economic scenario

Crop / climate interactions in the TROPICS

Past land-use change (1992-1860)

Future land-use change (2100-1992)

Davin et al. 2007

A2 socio-economic scenario

Projected future land-use change = Tropics

Importance of land-use change for future climate in the TROPICS

1) Modeling the impact of climate on crop yields

Climate

Plot-scale, process-based crop model

Different crops: different crop models

1) Modeling the impact of climate on crop yields

Linking crop models and climate models = crop yields projections
Crop model i
Crop model i+1

Climate model

Crop model i+2

1) Modeling the impact of climate on crop yields

Linking crop models and climate models = crop yields projections
Crop model i
Crop model i+1

Climate model

Crop model i+2

- scale mismatch
- local assessments / spatially heterogeneous impacts
/ different climate and crops models

1) Modeling the impact of climate on crop yields

Linking crop models and climate models = crop yields projections
Crop model i
Crop model i+1
Crop model i+2

Climate model

IPCC 2007 - Cereal yield change with

global warming:

69 studies at multiple
simulation sites
Inconsistent / qualitative assessment:
Temperate: 1-3 K threshold
Tropics: 1-2 K threshold

Yield change (%)

- scale mismatch
- local assessments / spatially heterogeneous impacts
/ different climate and crops models
mid-high latitudes

Maize
T change

low latitudes

Maize

1) Modeling the impact of climate on crop yields

Linking crop models and climate models = crop yields projections
Crop model i
Crop model i+1

Climate model

Crop model i+2

- scale mismatch
- local assessments / spatially heterogeneous impacts
/ different climate and crops models
IPCC 2007 - Cereal yield change with
global warming:

69 studies at multiple
simulation sites
Inconsistent / qualitative assessment:
Temperate: 1-3 K threshold
Tropics: 1-2 K threshold

Need for more consistent,

large-scale, spatially
distributed and
quantitative climate
change impact studies

2) Modeling the feedback of land-use change on climate

ORCHIDEE (IPSL):
8 tree types
+ C3 and C4 grass
+ C3 and C4 crops

2) Modeling the feedback of land-use change on climate

ORCHIDEE (IPSL):
8 tree types
+ C3 and C4 grass
+ C3 and C4 crops

Land-use change

2) Modeling the feedback of land-use change on climate

ORCHIDEE (IPSL):
8 tree types
+ C3 and C4 grass
+ C3 and C4 crops

: croplands are approximated by grasslands

But croplands grasslands

Need to account for croplands more realistically in

land surface models (LSMs)

General idea: include a representation of croplands in LSMs, derived from crop

models
large-scale, spatially explicit response of crop yields to climate ?
more realistic feedback to climate ?

General idea: include a representation of croplands in LSMs, derived from crop

models
large-scale, spatially explicit response of crop yields to climate ?
more realistic feedback to climate ?
For various reasons, most agro-LSMs focus first on a few crops and/or regions:

MODEL

Group

Crops

Scale

LPJ-ml

PIK-Postdam

11 crop types

World

Agro-Ibis

Univ.Wisconsin

Corn, soybean, wheat

Cont.US

ORCHIDEE-STICS

IPSL

Wheat, maize,
soybean

Europe

GLAM-MOSES

Hadley Center

Groundnuts

Tropics

SiBcrop

Univ.Colorado

Corn, soybean, wheat

Cont.US

General idea: include a representation of croplands in LSMs, derived from crop

models
large-scale, spatially explicit response of crop yields to climate ?
more realistic feedback to climate ?
For various reasons, most agro-LSMs focus first on a few crops and/or regions:

MODEL

Group

Crops

Scale

LPJ-ml

PIK-Postdam

11 crop types

World

Agro-Ibis

Univ.Wisconsin

Corn, soybean, wheat

Cont.US

ORCHIDEE-STICS

IPSL

Wheat, maize,
soybean

Europe

GLAM-MOSES

Hadley Center

Groundnuts

Tropics

SiBcrop

Univ.Colorado

Corn, soybean, wheat

Cont.US

Here: develop a representation of tropical, C4 crops in ORCHIDEE.

ORCHIDEE-mil

IPSL

Tropical C4 cereals

Africa, India

General idea: include a representation of croplands in LSMs, derived from crop

models
large-scale, spatially explicit response of crop yields to climate ?
more realistic feedback to climate ?

ORCHIDEE-mil
SARRAH

millet/sorghum in
West Africa

My objectives:
Here, stronger focus on impacts:

Impacts
-To what extent is ORCHIDEE-mil able to
represent tropical crops and to
simulate large-scale impacts of climate
on crops in the TROPICS?
- what is the scope of climate change
impacts on crop yields by the end of
this century in the TROPICS?

Feedbacks
- How does a more realistic
representation of croplands feed back on
land-atmosphere interactions and
climate ?

Outlines
Model development
Model validation : on-site simulations and large-scale applications
Feedback on land/atmosphere interactions and climate
Projected impacts of climate change on regional crop yields over Africa and
India

Outlines
Model development
Model validation : on-site simulations and large-scale applications
Feedback on land/atmosphere interactions and climate
Projected impacts of climate change on regional crop yields over Africa and
India

Model development
1) Comparison ORCHIDEE / SARRAH over Bambey, Senegal.
SARRAH = proxy of observations
Bambey climate 1997

ORCHIDEE

SARRAH = Obs

Bambey research station (on the

rainfall map of West Africa).

Model development
1) Comparison ORCHIDEE / SARRAH over Bambey, Senegal.
SARRAH = proxy of observations
Bambey climate 1997

ORCHIDEE

SARRAH = Obs

Potential climatic yield

Bambey research station (on the

rainfall map of West Africa).

Intensive farming:
- modern cultivar
- no nutrient stress, no pests
- high density

Model development
1) Comparison ORCHIDEE / SARRAH over Bambey, Senegal.
SARRAH = proxy of observations
Bambey climate 1997

ORCHIDEE

SARRAH = Obs

Bambey research station (on the

rainfall map of West Africa).

LAI
2) Changes to ORCHIDEE :
- phenology
- carbon allocation scheme
- yield elaboration
- LAI computation
Assimilation, hydrology are not
modified.

Vegetative phase Flowering

Grain
filling
Dessication

July

Aug

Sept

oct

SARRAHs crop cycle on Bambey in 1997

Model development
1) Comparison ORCHIDEE / SARRAH over Bambey, Senegal.
SARRAH = proxy of observations
Bambey climate 1997

ORCHIDEE

SARRAH = Obs

Bambey research station (on the

rainfall map of West Africa).

LAI
2) Changes to ORCHIDEE :
- phenology
- carbon allocation scheme
- yield elaboration
- LAI computation
Assimilation, hydrology are not
modified.

Vegetative phase Flowering

Grain
filling
Dessication

July

Aug

Sept

oct

SARRAHs crop cycle on Bambey in 1997

GDD sum :
j

GDD j = min Topt, Ti Tb

i= S

Model development
1) Comparison ORCHIDEE / SARRAH over Bambey, Senegal.
SARRAH = proxy of observations
Bambey climate 1997

ORCHIDEE

SARRAH = Obs

Bambey research station (on the

rainfall map of West Africa).

LAI
2) Changes to ORCHIDEE :
- phenology
- carbon allocation scheme
- yield elaboration
- LAI computation
Assimilation, hydrology are not
modified.

Vegetative phase Flowering

Grain
filling
Dessication

July

Aug

Sept

oct

SARRAHs crop cycle on Bambey in 1997

GDD sum :
j

ORCHIDEE-mil

GDD j = min Topt, Ti Tb

i= S

Model development and calibration

Bambey, 1997

A S O

N D

Rainfall ORCHIDEE SARRAH(=obs) ORCHIDEE-mil

Outlines
Model development
Model validation : on-site simulations and large-scale applications
Feedback on land/atmosphere interactions and climate
Projected impacts of climate change on regional crop yields over Africa and
India

Model validation: how ?

scarcity of sites
and data

Local scale: on-site measurements ?

Large scale:

- against satellite data ?

observations are not

specific of croplands

- against large-scale yield data (FAO*) ?

*FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

uncertainties of yield
observations

Model validation: how ?

scarcity of sites
and data

Local scale: on-site measurements ?

Large scale:

- against satellite data ?

observations are not

specific of croplands

- against large-scale yield data (FAO*) ?

*FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

uncertainties of yield
observations

Model validation: on-site simulations

Bambey, other year

Wankama, 2005
-2007 (AMMA site)

Potential climatic yield

On-farm yield

Intensive farming

Extensive farming
Mean rainfall

Model validation: on-site simulations

Bambey, other year

Wankama, 2005
-2007 (AMMA site)

Potential climatic yield

On-farm yield

Intensive farming

Extensive farming
Mean rainfall

Bambey, 1996

ORCHIDEE SARRAH(=obs)
ORCHIDEE-mil Rainfall

Model validation: on-site simulations

Bambey, other year

Wankama, 2005
-2007 (AMMA site)

Potential climatic yield

On-farm yield

Intensive farming

Extensive farming

Pictures
by
N.Boulain,
IRD

Bambey, 1996

Low inputs
ORCHIDEE SARRAH(=obs)
ORCHIDEE-mil Rainfall

Extensive
70 % bare soil

Model validation: on-site simulations

Bambey, other year

Wankama, 2005
-2007 (AMMA site)

Potential climatic yield

On-farm yield

Intensive farming

Extensive farming

Wankama
2005

Bambey, 1996

Aboveground
biomass

2006

ORCHIDEE SARRAH(=obs)
ORCHIDEE-mil Rainfall

2007

Model validation: how ?

scarcity of sites
and data

Local scale: on-site measurements ?

Large scale:

- against satellite data ?

observations are not

specific of croplands

- against large-scale yield data (FAO*) ?

*FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

uncertainties yield
observations

(Berg et al. 2010,

Climatic Change)

Model validation: regional simulations

Experiment

Land-use map

Climate data:
NCC (NCEP corrected by CRU)
1965-2000
1x1

Simulated yields
aggregated at country-level

Vs
ORCHIDEE-mil

Yield data = detrended

national yields from FAO

Simulation domain: sudano-sahelian West Africa

Mean rainfall

(Berg et al. 2010,

Climatic Change)

Model validation: regional simulations

Mean yields
Kg/ha

Correct spatial distribution

Mean simulated yields (1965-2000)

Large mean overestimation

(Berg et al. 2010,

Climatic Change)

Model validation: regional simulations

Mean yields

Mean overestimation = yield gap between climatic potential yields and actual, on-farm yields
Data show : - on-farm crop yields are limited by soil fertility,
- potential yields are consistent with ORCHIDEE-mil results

ICRISAT data, Niger

(Vlek and Mokwunye 1988).

(Berg et al. 2010,

Climatic Change)

Model validation: regional simulations

Mean yields

Mean overestimation = yield gap between climatic potential yields and actual, on-farm yields
Data show : - on-farm crop yields are limited by soil fertility,
- potential yields are consistent with ORCHIDEE-mil results

On-farm

Without nutrient stress

= potential

ICRISAT data, Niger

(Vlek and Mokwunye 1988).

(Berg et al. 2010,

Climatic Change)

Model validation: regional simulations

Mean yields

Mean overestimation = yield gap between climatic potential yields and actual, on-farm yields
Data show : - on-farm crop yields are limited by soil fertility,
- potential yields are consistent with ORCHIDEE-mil results

Wankama

density as a proxy for intensification ?

(Berg et al. 2010,

Climatic Change)

Model validation: regional simulations

Interannual variability:
correlations between simulated and observed (FAO) yields
Niger

Obs
Sim

Burkina-Faso

Mali

0.15

Niger

0.47

Burkina-Faso

0.53

Senegal

0.29

Chad

0.32

Interannual correlations over

1965-2000
Observed and simulated yield standardized anomalies

Score aggregated over West Africa (all countries above) : R = 0.48

Model validation: regional simulations

Moderate score (R=0.48)

what causes ?

Model validation: regional simulations

Moderate score (R=0.48)

what causes ?
Land-use map

Climate data:
NCC (NCEP corrected by CRU)
1965-2000
1x1

Simulated yields
aggregated at country-level

Vs
ORCHIDEE-mil

Yield data = detrended

national yields from FAO

Model validation: regional simulations

Moderate score (R=0.48)

what causes ?
Land-use map

Climate data:
NCC (NCEP corrected by CRU)
1965-2000
1x1

ORCHIDEE-mil

- Uncertainties in model accuracy

Simulated yields
aggregated at country-level

Vs
Yield data = detrended
national yields from FAO

Model validation: regional simulations

Moderate score (R=0.48)

what causes ?

?
?

Land-use map

Climate data:
NCC (NCEP corrected by CRU)
1965-2000
1x1

ORCHIDEE-mil

- Uncertainties in model accuracy

- Uncertainties in input data

Simulated yields
aggregated at country-level

Vs
Yield data = detrended
national yields from FAO

Model validation: regional simulations

Moderate score (R=0.48)

what causes ?

?
?

Land-use map

Climate data:
NCC (NCEP corrected by CRU)
1965-2000
1x1

ORCHIDEE-mil

Simulated yields
aggregated at country-level

Vs

Yield data = detrended

national yields from FAO

- Uncertainties in model accuracy

- Uncertainties in input data
- Uncertainties in observations: how much climate do they really contain ?

Uncertainties in observations: how much climate do they really contain ?...

Model validation: regional simulations

Moderate score (R=0.48)

what causes ?

?
?

Land-use map

Climate data:
NCC (NCEP corrected by CRU)
1965-2000
1x1

Model

Simulated yields
aggregated at country-level

Vs

ORCHIDEE-mil

Region

Time
period

Yield data = detrended

national yields from FAO

Crops

ORCHIDEESTICS

European
countries

1972-2003

-Wheat
- Maize

0.1 - 0.3
0.4 - 0.7

GLAM

India

1966-1989

Groundnut

0.76

MCWA

Chinese
provinces

1985-2002

Maize

0.4 - 0.8

ORCHIDEE-mils skill is similar to other large-scale crop models.

Model validation: regional simulations

Moderate score (R=0.48)

what causes ?

?
?

Land-use map

Climate data:
NCC (NCEP corrected by CRU)
1965-2000
1x1

Correction of daily rainfall

intensity and frequency by
observations

R=0.55
(Berg et al. 2010, GRL)

ORCHIDEE-mil

Simulated yields
aggregated at country-level

Vs

Yield data = detrended

national yields from FAO

Model validation: regional simulations

Moderate score (R=0.48)

what causes ?

?
?

Land-use map

Climate data:
NCC (NCEP corrected by CRU)
1965-2000
1x1

Simulated yields
aggregated at country-level

Vs

ORCHIDEE-mil

Yield data = detrended

national yields from FAO

Kg/ha

Other region: India

R=0.68
Observed and simulated yield anomalies
Mean simulated yields (1961-1999)

Same mean bias but better score

Outlines
Model development
Model validation : on-site simulations and large-scale applications
Feedback on land/atmosphere interactions and climate
Projected impacts of climate change on regional crop yields over Africa and
India

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: comparison between

ORCHIDEE-mil/ORCHIDEE

ORCHIDEE-mil: millet

/ standard ORCHIDEE: grasslands

NCC (climate data)

1965-2000, 1x1

NCC (climate data)

1965-2000, 1x1
L.A. fluxes

ORCHIDEE

Comparison

L.A. fluxes

ORCHIDEE-mil

Simulation domain: sudano-sahelian West Africa

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: comparison between

ORCHIDEE-mil/ORCHIDEE

ORCHIDEE-mil: millet

/ standard ORCHIDEE: grasslands

Albedo

Surface Net Radiation

Latent Heat flux

Sensible Heat Flux

Ratio between ORCHIDEE-mil and ORCHIDEE for 36-year annual average

ORCHIDEE-mil: millet
ORCHIDEE: grasslands

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: comparison between

ORCHIDEE-mil/ORCHIDEE

ORCHIDEE-mil: millet

/ standard ORCHIDEE: grasslands

Albedo

Surface Net Radiation

Latent Heat flux

Sensible Heat Flux

Ratio between ORCHIDEE-mil and ORCHIDEE for 36-year annual average

ORCHIDEE-mil: millet
ORCHIDEE: grasslands

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: comparison between

ORCHIDEE-mil/ORCHIDEE
Albedo

Surface Net radiation

Latent heat flux, LAI

Sensible heat flux

Mean annual cycle, over the 36 years of simulation and a sub-region for
ORCHIDEE-mil and ORCHIDEE

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: comparison between

ORCHIDEE-mil/ORCHIDEE
Albedo

Surface Net radiation

Latent heat flux, LAI

Sensible heat flux

Mean annual cycle, over the 36 years of simulation and a sub-region for
ORCHIDEE-mil and ORCHIDEE
Differences < shorter plant cycle (harvest).
What effect on the simulated climate and monsoon system ?

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: impact on climate

ORCHIDEE-mil not coupled to the atmosphere model

asynchronously coupled simulation

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: impact on climate

ORCHIDEE-mil not coupled to the atmosphere model

LMDZ-OR (climate model)

NCC (climate data)

ORCHIDEE
ORCHIDEE-mil

asynchronously coupled simulation

Average seasonal
cycle of LAI

Two 30-year global

simulations
prescribed SSTs
3.75x 2.5.

100%

or
100%

Real vegetation
(Satellite LAI)

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: impact on climate

Imposed perturbation
LAI

J F M A M J J

LAI
ORCHIDEE
ORCHIDEE-mil

A O N D

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: impact on climate

Imposed perturbation

Simulated climate
mm/d

LAI

J F M A M J J

LAI

A O N D

J F M A M

A O N D

Surface air temp.

J F M A M J

Rainfall

ORCHIDEE
ORCHIDEE-mil

small effect on temperatures: 1-2 K at the end of the rainy season

no significant effect on mean precipitation

A O N D

Modifications of land-atmosphere fluxes: impact on climate

Grassland approximation OK ?
Preliminary assessment / limitations:
-the scale of the surface perturbation / global simulation
-representation of L-A coupling and the West African monsoon in LMDZ ?
- fixed vegetation

No generic conclusion should be drawn here.

Other regions when the contrast between grasslands and croplands is more
pronounced yield more interesting results (e.g., Amazonia, Costa et al. 2007)

Outlines
Model development
Model validation : on-site simulations and large-scale applications
Feedback on land/atmosphere interactions and climate
Projected impacts of climate change on regional crop yields over Africa and
India

Projections of climate change impacts on potential C4 crop

productivity over Africa and India
(Berg et al. 2010, subm. to Agr.For.Met.)

Experiment:
With / without
CO2 effect
Climate data:
IPCC climate projections
2 scenarios (A1B, A2):
7 and 5 models

ORCHIDEE-mil

1961-2100
2.5x2.5

No land-use
map: crops
everywhere

Potential yield
change

Regional biases in climate models

Obs

(Cook
and Vizy
2006)

Observed and simulated 19492000 JJAS

precipitation rates (mm/day) in 2 IPCC models

Regional biases in climate models

analysis by Kppen bioclimatic zones

- based on T and P
- based on threshold values and
seasonality
- broadly correspond to biomes

Obs

(Cook
and Vizy
2006)

Observed and simulated 19492000 JJAS

precipitation rates (mm/day) in 2 IPCC models

Kppen classification based on CRU data

over 1951-2000

Regional biases in climate models

analysis by Kppen bioclimatic zones

- based on T and P
- based on threshold values and
seasonality
- broadly correspond to biomes

Obs

+ Definition of simpler zones

(Cook
and Vizy
2006)

Observed and simulated 19492000 JJAS

precipitation rates (mm/day) in 2 IPCC models

Kppen classification based on CRU data

over 1951-2000

Regional biases in climate models

analysis by Kppen bioclimatic zones

MIROC_Hi

IPSL

Temperate
Arid
Desert
Eq. dry season
Eq. humid

Obs
Obs

(Cook
and Vizy
2006)

Observed and simulated 19492000 JJAS

precipitation rates (mm/day) in 2 IPCC models

T change by (2070-2100)

A2

Eq.
Eq.
Arid
humid dry season

Temperate

Eq.
Eq.
Arid
humid dry season

Temperate

A1B

T change by (2070-2100)

P change by (2070-2100)
: significant vs interannual variability

A2

Eq.
Eq.
Arid
humid dry season

Temperate

Eq.
Eq.
Arid
humid dry season

Temperate

A1B
Eq.
Eq.
Arid
humid dry season

Temperate

Eq.
Eq.
Arid
humid dry season

Temperate

Yield change
A1B scenario

By 2035
(2020-2050)

Arid
Eq.
Eq.
humid dry season

Temperate

Eq.
Arid
Eq.
humid dry season

Temperate

By 2085
(2070-2100)

: significant
vs interannual
variability

Yield change
A1B scenario

By 2035
(2020-2050)

Arid
Eq.
Eq.
humid dry season

Temperate

Eq.
Arid
Eq.
humid dry season

Temperate

By 2085
(2070-2100)

: significant
vs interannual
variability

Yield change
A1B scenario

By 2035
(2020-2050)

Arid
Eq.
Eq.
humid dry season

Temperate

Eq.
Arid
Eq.
humid dry season

Temperate

By 2085
(2070-2100)

: significant
vs interannual
variability

Rainfall change, Temperature change and Yield change

Eq. humid

A1B
A2

Eq.
dry season

Arid

Temperate

Rainfall change, Temperature change and Yield change

Eq. humid

A1B
A2

Eq.
dry season

Arid

Temperate

Rainfall effect only in dry zones

Rainfall change, Temperature change and Yield change

Eq. humid

A1B
A2

Eq.
dry season

Arid

Temperate

Rainfall effect only in dry zones

Eq. humid

Eq.
dry season

Arid

Temperate

Rainfall change, Temperature change and Yield change

Eq. humid

A1B
A2

Eq.
dry season

Arid

Temperate

Eq. humid

Eq.
dry season

Rainfall effect only in dry zones

T effect in other zones = acceleration of phenology

Arid

Temperate

Rainfall change, Temperature change and Yield change

Eq. humid

A1B
A2

Eq.
dry season

Arid

Temperate

Eq. humid

Eq.
dry season

Arid

Temperate

Rainfall effect only in dry zones

T effect in other zones = acceleration of phenology

Consistency of yields change on different zones < consistency of

climate projections for T/P

CO2 effect

Little CO2 effect:

- no direct fertilization effect
- improved water use efficiency in dry areas (+7%)

Consistent with expected

impact on C4 crops

Projections of climate change impacts on potential C4 crop productivity

over Africa and India

Limitations:
Not all climate impacts are considered:
- climate extremes (heat waves, floods)
- interactions between climate, CO2 and pests/diseases

Projections of climate change impacts on potential C4 crop productivity

over Africa and India

Limitations:
Not all climate impacts are considered:
- climate extremes (heat waves, floods)
- interactions between climate, CO2 and pests/diseases
Scope of potential climate-related impacts only :
-possibility to adapt agricultural practices to climate change: water management,
cultivars, cropping systems
- possibility to improve yields today = fill the yield gap

Conclusion
More realistic representation of tropical croplands in ORCHIDEE
Yield overestimation = yield gap
The large-scale relationship between climate and yields is correctly captured: 23 % of
variance explained over West Africa and 46% over India
Uncertainties in large-scale modeling : - accuracy of large-scale yield data
- accuracy of climate and land use data
Over West Africa: a more realistic representation of croplands:
- modifies land-atmosphere interactions
- shows little subsequent impact on the simulated monsoon.
Impacts of climate change on yields over Africa / India:
- Robust, moderately adverse effect of temperature
- uncertainties in precipitations

total impact = -29% / + 11%

Impacts may be more than compensated by adaptation + yield gap filling !

Climate change = additional stress

Outlooks
Model improvement:
-Yield overestimation: use of a spatially-varying scaling factor to account for levels of
intensification (as in LPJ-mL)
- Calculate cultivars as a function of climate
- Represent other tropical crops (rice, soybean)
representation of croplands in ORCHIDEE on the global scale ?
Model use:
- Projections with CMIP5 climate change simulations
- Impacts on shorter time scales (e.g., seasonal)
- Impacts of land use change on regional surface carbon and water budgets
Feedback on climate

coupling to the atmosphere (interactive vegetation)

Consistent framework to investigate:

- interactions between climate, crops and irrigation
- what land-use scenario provides the best climate return in terms of crop
yields ?

Thank you
for your attention
and to everyone who helped and contributed!