Global WarmingPast Trends and Future Projections

Investigation by Edward Sun

Nepean High School

Background Information
Global warming is the increase in the Earths
average surface temperature.
Global warming is caused by the Greenhouse
Effect and elevated emissions of greenhouse
gases, notably carbon dioxide.
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases help
regulate the Earth's climate by trapping heat
in the atmosphere and reflecting it back to the
surface. However, human activities have
amplified this natural process.

Background Information (Cont)

In the past century, the mean surface
temperature on Earth has increased
approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius.
Eleven of the last twelve years rank among
the twelve warmest years since 1850.
If global warming is indeed caused by
human activities, as suggested by many
studies, then all of us are responsible to do
something about it.

Seeking An Answer
Global warming is becoming one of the
central issues of the world
More and more people are becoming aware
of the undesirable effects global warming
could have on the Earths climate, due to
much propaganda.
Global temperatures have been rising and
are projected to rise further in the future.

The Question
What factors have been causing the Earths
climate to change, and how will it change in
the future?
In an endeavour to answer the above
question, I decided to investigate on the
topic of global warming.
As there are two parts to this question, data
of past trends will be analyzed, and
predictions for the future will be made
based on these past trends.

My Hypotheses:
In the future, the climate of the Earth will
likely be warmer, the sea levels will likely
rise, and weather patterns and precipitation
will be affected. Human activities such as
burning fossil fuels are responsible for past
alterations of the Earths climate.
Conducting research, analyzing secondary
data, and studying relationships will help
determine the precision of these hypotheses.

Variables Examined
The emission of
CO2?

The amount of
precipitation?

The amount
of fossil fuel
burnt?

What is the
relationship
between global
warming and:
Ocean
levels?

The number of
motorized
vehicles?

A Potential Cause
As global warming is primarily caused by
an overabundance of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, we will first consider some
factors that could cause a rise in the
atmospheric concentrations of gases such as
carbon dioxide and nitrogen dioxide.
What are some things that produce these
gases?

A Potential Cause (Cont)

The first to come to mind are cars that line
the roads of cities, which are increasing in
number every year.
Burning gasoline releases carbon dioxide.
As the combustion of gasoline is an
absolute necessity for cars to run, the
number of cars escalating through the years
must surely mean that the amount of
greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere
has been increasing as well.

 Below is graph of the total number of registered

vehicles in Canada from year 1990 to 1995:
Total Number of Motorized Vehicles in Canada, 1990-1995

# of Vehicles

16600000

y = 239657x - 5E+08
2
R = 0.9431

16400000
16200000
16000000
15800000
15600000
15400000
15200000
1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Year

The total number of registered vehicles in Canada had

been increasing at a steady rate in the six years.

 Canadas economy was gradually growing, and

the number of cars on the roads had been on the
rise at an average rate of 1.33% each year.
Now let us examine what effects this had had on
the emissions of greenhouse gases in Canada.
Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-1995
510
y = 7.7114x - 14893
2
R = 0.7928

Megatonnes

500
490
480
470
460
450
1989

1990

1991

1992

1993
Year

1994

1995

1996

 There was an increase in Canadas emissions of

greenhouse gases at the same time as the number
of vehicles was mounting.
Total Number of Vehicles vs. GHG Emissions in Canada
510
y = 3E-05x + 6.32
2
R = 0.696

Megatonnes

500
490
480
470
460
450
15200000

15400000

15600000

15800000

16000000

Number of Vehicles

16200000

16400000

16600000

When graphed onto the same axes, the strong,

positive correlation

=0.83427
suggests that the increase in the number of vehicles
may be causing a rise in the amount of greenhouse
gases released into the atmosphere.
When we study the same relationship for the United
States, we find similar, positive correlations.

Total Number of Vehicles in the US, 1991-2000

230,000,000

y = 4E+06x - 7E+09
2
R = 0.9912

# of Vehicles

225,000,000
220,000,000
215,000,000
210,000,000

Total Number of Vehicles vs. GHG Emissions in the US

205,000,000
200,000,000
195,000,000
7200

y = 3E-05x + 943.46
2
R = 0.9676

MMT

190,000,000
7000
185,000,000
6800
1990
6600
6400

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Year

6200
6000
190,000 195,000 200,000 205,000 210,000 215,000 220,000 225,000 230,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000

Number of Vehicles

 Canada and the United States are selected in a

cluster sample of countries in North America, as
they are the dominant producers of greenhouse
gases.
Since it is shown by many studies that global
warming is indeed caused by the Greenhouse
Effect, we may be able to say from studying the
above relationships that manufacturing more cars
will contribute to global warming.
However, as there are many other factors that can
cause the Earths climate to change, we cannot
conclude with certainty that the increase in the
number of vehicles has caused significant changes
to the concentration of greenhouse gases in our
atmosphere.

Burning of Fossil Fuels

Burning fossil fuels is another major contributor to
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Production of Energy

nuclear
5%
hydro

biomass
14%

coal
24%

6%

natural
gas
18%

oil
33%

 As we can see from the pie chart in the previous

slide, about 75% of the worlds energy is produced
by burning fossil fuels.
Let us examine how this affects global warming.
Here is a graph displaying the total fossil fuel CO2
emissions in Canada between 1985 and 2004.
Total Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in Canada
200000

y = 4058.1x - 8E+06
2
R = 0.9329

TMTof C2

150000
100000
50000
0
1984

1989

1994
Year

1999

2004

 Clearly, an increasing amount of carbon dioxide is

being released from burning fossil fuels.

CO2 Concentrations (ppm)

Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, 1959-2004

390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

Year

1989

1994

1999

2004

Atmospheric CO2
Concentrations (ppm)

Now let us compare it with the temperature trend in the

Northern Hemisphere between 1960 and 2005.

Temp.Deviation (Hundredth
of Degree C)

Temp.Deviation from 20-Year Avg., 1960-2005

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.21950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

-0.4
Year

Temp.Deviation from 20-Year

Avg.
Linear (Temp.Deviation from
20-Year Avg.)

As much as the temperature deviations fluctuate,

we can see from the linear trend line that the
average temperature had been steadily increasing.
The graph in the next slide clearly shows the causeand-effect relationship between the two variables.

Temp. Deviation (Hundredth

of Degree C)

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions vs. Temp. Deviations from 20Year Avg.
1.2
y = 9E- 06x - 0. 5897
2
R = 0. 8914

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

100000

110000

120000 130000

Temp. Devi ati on f rom20Year Avg.

(Temp.Deviation from
20- Year Avg. )

140000

150000

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

160000 170000

180000

 It appears that the amount of fossil fuels burnt also

has a strong, positive correlation with the rise in
temperature.
From studying the statistics, we learn that burning
fossil fuels has indeed been producing more and
more carbon dioxide each year.
Since there is much evidence proving that global
climate change is due to elevated levels of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it is fair to
say that burning fossil fuels is definitely a
contributing factor to the global temperature rises.

Recent Trends and the Future

Despite much propaganda attempting to raise
global awareness regarding global warming, the
number of cars continues to increase, as do the
sales of gasoline.
Net Sales of Gasoline in Canada, 2002-2006
39,500,000
39,000,000
38,500,000
38,000,000

Net Sales of Diesel Oil in Canada, 2002-2006

25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000

37,500,000

5,000,000

37,000,000

Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand Litres)

Linear (Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand
Litres))

Net Sales of Diesel Oil (Thousand

Litres)
Linear (Net Sales of Diesel Oil

Net Sales of Gasoline in Canada, 2002-2006

39,500,000
39,000,000

Net Sales of Diesel Oil in Canada, 2002-2006

25,000,000
20,000,000

38,500,000

15,000,000

38,000,000

10,000,000
5,000,000

37,500,000

37,000,000

Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand Litres)

Linear (Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand
Litres))

Net Sales of Diesel Oil (Thousand

Litres)
Linear (Net Sales of Diesel Oil
(Thousand Litres))

If we extrapolate on the graphs, we can easily predict that

in about five years, the sales of gasoline in Canada will
exceed 39 billion litres per year, while the sales of diesel
oil will surpass 20 billion litres per year.
The implications of this are clear without saying: more
greenhouse gases will be produced, which may lead to
further changes of the Earths climate.

 Now let us look at how the climate has been

affected so far. On the following page is a graph
on the average annual rainfall amounts in Canada
between the years of 1989-2003.
Average Annual Rainfall in Canada, 1989-2003

Amount of Rainfall (mm)

1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
1986

1990

1994

1998

2002
Year

2006

2010

2014

Aver age Annual Rai nf al l

( mm)
(Average Annual

 While there were great variations in the

average yearly rainfall amounts during this
decade and half, we can see from the
negative slope of the trend line that on the
whole, rainfall amounts had been
decreasing.
If this trend continues, then further drops in
the amounts of rainfall can be expected.
We can clearly see this by extending the
trend line on the graph.

On A Global Scale
So we have seen that alterations in the climate of
the northern hemisphere have been occurring. Let
us see if changes are also taking place on a global
scale.
If the global temperatures have indeed been
getting warmer, then we can expect to perceive
visible changes in the Polar Regions, where a rise
in temperature can cause the ice to melt.
Examining the graph on the following slide allows
us to see the changes that had been occurring in
the Arctic ice thickness between the years of 1990
to 1997.

Arctic Ice Thickness, 1990-1997

Mean Ice Draft (m)

3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994
Year

1995

1996

1997

1998

Mean I ce Draf t ( m)
(Mean Ice Draft (m))

As we can see, the sea ice had indeed been melting and
getting thinner over these seven years.
Because global temperatures have been climbing
constantly, we can conclude that the ice melting is due to
global warming.

 Another question arises from this conclusion:

What happens to the sea level as the ice melts?
The logical answer is that it will rise. Let us see if
this is true.
Changes in Sea Level, Barents Sea (1978-2000)
30
25

C han ge (cm )

20
15
10
5
0

1975

-5

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

-10
-15

Year

Changes in Sea Level (cm)

Linear (Changes in Sea
Level (cm))

 As predicted, the sea levels are indeed rising. This

can also be attributed to the global climate
changes, as we have already concluded that global
warming is what causes the ice to melt.
Let us examine a recent set of data:
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

Rise in Sea Level (cm)

15
9
15
10
17
18

 Assuming current trends will stay the same

in the future, the likelihood of the Barents
Sea level rising more than 10 cm in a future
year is 4/6 or 67%.
The probability of the number of years the
Barents Sea rises over 10 cm in sea level in
the next twenty years can be shown by a
binomial distribution:

# of Years the Barents Sea Level Rises Over 10 cm (x)

P (x)

20

20

C1 (0.67)1 (0.33)19 = 9.53X10-9

20

C2 (0.67)2 (0.33)18 = 1.83X10-7

20

C3 (0.67)3 (0.33)17 = 2.24X10-6

20

C4 (0.67)4 (0.33)16 = 1.93X10-5

20

C5 (0.67)5 (0.33)15 = 1.25X10-4

20

C6 (0.67)6 (0.33)14 = 6.37X10-4

20

C7 (0.67)7 (0.33)13 = 2.59X10-3

20

C8 (0.67)8 (0.33)12 = 8.53X10-3

20

10
11

20

C0 (0.67)0 (0.33)20 = 2.35X10-10

C9 (0.67)9 (0.33)11 = 2.31X10-2

C10 (0.67)10 (0.33)10 = 5.16X10-2

20

C11 (0.67)11 (0.33)9 = 9.52X10-2

12

20

C12 (0.67)12 (0.33)8 = 0.1450

13

20

14

20

C14 (0.67)14 (0.33)6 = 0.1839

15

20

C15 (0.67)15 (0.33)5 = 0.1493

C13 (0.67)13 (0.33)7 = 0.1811

16

20

C16 (0.67)16 (0.33)4 = 9.47X10-2

17

20

C17 (0.67)17 (0.33)3 = 4.53X10-2

18

C (0.67)18 (0.33)2 = 1.53X10-2

 As we can see from the chart from the previous

slide, it is most likely that the sea level of the
Barents Sea will rise over 10 cm in 12 to 15 years
of the future twenty years, if the current trend
continues. The expected number of years E (x) is
20X0.67= 13.4 years.
Now let us calculate the probability that the
Barents Sea rises over 10 cm in ten or more of the
twenty years ahead. Since np=20X0.67=13.4 and
nq=20X0.33=6.6 (both greater than 5), it is
reasonable to use a normal distribution to
approximate.
The mean () will be np=13.4, and the standard
deviation () will equal to
(npq)=(20X0.67X0.33) =2.1

P(x > 9.5)

= 1 P(x < 9.5)
= 1 P(z < (9.513.4)/2.1)
= 1 P(z < -1.86)
= 1 0.0314
0.97
The normal approximation shows that the likelihood
of the Barents Sea rising over 10 cm in ten or more of
the twenty future years is about 97%.
This high probability is also an indicator of how
much the global climate has changed, and how much
it will continue to change if the current trends persist.

In Conclusion
Strong, positive correlations have been found between
the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
and some human activities that produce such gases.
Analyzing climate patterns allowed calculations to be
done on the likelihood of further climate changes.
These calculations show that it is extremely likely for
the Earths climate to continue changing in the future.
Looking at the obtained results, it seems that global
warming has indeed been caused by human activities,
and the Earths climate will likely experience further
changes, as stated in the hypothesis

Cont
Although the gathered statistics all strongly
support the hypothesis, they do not confirm its
precision.
While it is extremely probable that the hypothesis
is correct, the fact remains that there are numerous
other factors that can contribute to the greenhouse
effect, and many organizations around the world
are taking action to slow, if not stop global
warming.

Bias in the Data

Data were collected from trustworthy
websites to minimize the number of results
that are skewed due to various forms of bias.
However, in some cases the sample sizes may
have been too small and may not be
representative of how the climate of the
entire globe has been changing.

End of Presentation
Thank you for listening