Almarely L. Berrios Negrn, Carlo S. Gonzlez Acevedo, Ana M.

Rodrguez Lpez
Mentor: Dr. Mayte Cruz-Aponte;
Department of MathematicsPhysics
University of Puerto Rico Cayey

INTRODUCTION
Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease
in the world. Its transmitted by several species of mosquito within
the genus Aedes, principally Aedes aegypti. There are four distinct
serotypes of the dengue virus (DEN 1, DEN 2, DEN 3 and DEN 4).
Symptoms appear in 2 7 days (on an average 4 7 days) after the
infective bite. Dengue fever is a flu - like illness that affects infants,
young children and adults. There is no specific treatment for dengue
fever. Severe dengue is a potentially lethal complication but early
clinical diagnosis and careful clinical management by experienced
physicians and nurses often save lives. More than 70% of the disease
burden is in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the incidence and severity of
disease have increased rapidly in recent years. In Puerto Rico, an
estimated yearly mean of 580 years per million population were lost
to disability adjusted life from dengue infections between 1984 and
1994. Urbanization, rapid movement of people and goods, favorable
climatic conditions and lack of trained staff has all contributed to the
global increase of dengue. On this research, we plan to create an
epidemiological model to describe mathematically the infection in
Puerto Rico and create simulations to understand the spreading of
the disease.

SIMULATIONS AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Distinct Incubation Period for the Host

Distinct Infection Period for the Host

Images from salud.gov.pr Weekly Dengue Report from week 40 (October 1 - 7, 2014), report
as of November 19, 2014. Weekly Surveillance Report for Dengue. Department of Health of
Puerto Rico.

Distinct Incubation Period for the Vector

Using 1/px = 8 days, 1/x = 10 days and varying 1/x = 5, 7

and 10 days we observe that as the incubation period of
the host increases the epidemic start days later and the
peak of the epidemic is lower and occurs later but the
epidemic duration is similar for all.
Using 1/x = 5 days, 1/x = 10 days and varying 1/px = 8,
10 and 12 days we observe that as the incubation period
of the vector increases the epidemic start very few days
later and the pick is not significantly lower, the epidemic
duration is similar for all but this changes are not
significant.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL
All simulations use the parameters as given in the
Mathematical Model section varying the incubation
period of the host 1/x (for Figure A), the incubation
period of the vector 1/px (Figure B) and the infection
period of the host 1/x (Figure C).

Using 1/px = 10 days, 1/x = 7 days and varying 1/x = 5, 7

and 10 days we observe that as the infection period of the
host increases the epidemic start a few days later but
there is a significant change in the epidemic duration, the
peak height and overall the final size of the epidemic (i.e.
the number of people infected overall.

FUTURE WORK
Parameters

Description

1/x 5 10 days

Days the host is infected

Focus on working on the model and searching for more information about the infection to adjust the parameters for our model.
Describe epidemiologically with the use of our model the popular infection called Dengue.
Further on, we need to establish numerical and statistical values for our model and analyze them so we can incorporate our
research into a mathematical structure.

SELECTED REFERENCES

0.75

Probability of effective contact for vector

0.50

Probability of effective contact for humans

1.

1/x 4 10 days

Days of incubation in host

2.

1/px 8 12 days

Days of disease incubation in vector

0.01 = 1%

Probability of death by the disease

3.
4.

Where x will indicate a distinct type of Dengue.

Phases
Febrile Phase
Critical Phase

2 7 days
Occurs on days 3 - 7

Samat, N. A., & Percy, D. F. Numerical Analysis of the SIR-SI Differential Equations with Application to Dengue Disease
Mapping in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
World Health Organization, Special Programme for Research, Training in Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization.
Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization. Epidemic, & Pandemic Alert. (2009).
Dengue: guidelines for diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control. World Health Organization.
Semana 40 - 43 del 22 - 28 de octubre del 2014. Informe Semanal de Vigilancia del Dengue. Departamento de Salud de
Puerto Rico Informe.
http://www.salud.gov.pr/dengue/CDC%202014/Informe%20Dengue%20Semana%2040%202014.pdf. Accesado, 24 de
noviembre de 2014.

Acknowledgments
We thank the BRIC program and the University of Puerto Rico at Cayey for the opportunity to conduct this research and our
mentor Dr. Mayte Cruz-Aponte for guiding us.