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Nama/NIP

Noor Cholis Madjid S.E. M.Si / 060077643

Tempat/tgl lahir

Pacitan / 4 Pebruari 1969

Pendidikan

D III Anggaran, D IV Anggaran STAN, S1 FE


universitas Indonesia, S2 Magister Ilmu Ekonomi
Universitas Diponegoro

Instansi

Pusdiklat Anggaran BPPK Depkeu

Alamat

Komp. Taman Meruya Ilir Blok D12/38 jakartaBarat


Noorcmadjid@gmail.com
Telp. 081319038979/021 5850902

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Introduction

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Buku Pegangan (boleh pilih salah


satu/semua): Macroeconomics
Olivier Blanchard (Pearson Int ed 2006);
Richard T Froyen (Prentice hall ed 7 th);
Sadono Sukirno Makro Ekonomi Modern;
Mc Eachern Ekonomi Makro;
Rudiger Dornbusch dkk

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Penilaian

Makalah Kelompok;
Makalah Perorangan;
Presentasi;
Partisipasi kelas;
Quiz;
Ujian Tengah semester;
Ujian Akhir Semester.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Important issues in macroeconomics

Why does the cost of living keep rising?


Why are millions of people unemployed, even
when the economy is booming?
Why are there recessions?
Can the government do anything to combat
recessions? Should it??

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Important issues in macroeconomics

What is the government budget deficit? How does


it affect the economy?
Why does the U.S. have such a huge trade deficit?
Why are so many countries poor?
What policies might help them grow out of
poverty?

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Kenapa Belajar Makro Ekonomi?

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Masalah Pokok Dalam Perekonomian

Pendapatan Nasional/ Pertumbuhan Ekonomi


Pengangguran;
Inflasi;
Dan Ketidakstabilan Neraca Pembayaran;

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Mikro Ekonomi Vs Makro ekonomi


Makro ekonomi membicarakan asek ekonomi
secara menyeluruh
Bicara produsen/konsumen berarti
produsen/konsumen secara keseluruhan;
Peran Pemerintah;

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

CHAPTER

A Tour of the World

Prepared by:
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

1-1

The United States, 2000

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

The United States


Table 1-1 Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation in the United
States, 1960-2002 (in percent)
1960-2000
(average)

1992-2000
(average)

2000

2001

2002
(forecast)

Output growth rate

3.5

3.7

4.1

1.1

0.7

Unemployment rate

6.1

5.4

4.0

4.8

6.2

Inflation rate

5.1

1.7

2.3

2.1

1.2

Output growth rate: annual rate of growth of output. Unemployment rate: average
over the year. Inflation rate: annual rate of change of the price level.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

The United States


From an economic point of view, the period
1992-2000 was one of the best in recent
memory.
Output growth was positive for nine years in a row.

Sustained growth was associated with a stead

increase in employment and a steady decrease in


the unemployment rate.
The inflation rate remained low throughout the
period.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

The United States


The U.S. economy did poorly in 2001:
Output growth is projected to be 1.1%, a full 3%

below the growth rate for 2000.


Lower output growth has led to lower employment
growth, and a higher unemployment rate, from 4%
in 2000 to 4.8% for 2001.
Economists worry about the sources of the
slowdown, and whether or not the United States
can replicate the high rates of output growth of the
late 1990s.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Has the United States


Entered a New Economy?
The Federal Funds
Rate, June 2000 to
December 2001 Weekly
Average
In an attempt to
counteract the economic
slowdown, the Fed
aggressively decreased
the federal funds rate
throughout 2001.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Has the United States


Entered a New Economy?
Starting in the 1970s, there was a decrease in
the average rate of growth of output per
worker.
In the recent past, however, that rate appears
to have increased again. This increase in the
growth rate per worker has been emphasized
by the New Economy proponents.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Has the United States


Entered a New Economy?
Rate of Growth of
Output per Worker in the
United States Since
1950
The average rate of
growth of output per
worker decreased in the
mid-1970s. It appears
to have increased again
since the mid-1990s.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

1-2

The European Union

Today, 15 European countries comprise the


European Union, or EU.
Together, they form a formidable economic
power, with a combined output close to the
output of the United States.
The standard of living in many of these
countries is also close to that of the United
States.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

The European
Union, 2000

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

The European Union


Table 1-2 Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation in the
European Union, 1960-2002 (in percent)
1960-2000
(average)

1992-2000
(average)

2000

2001

2002
(forecast)

Output growth rate

3.1

2.1

3.3

1.7

1.5

Unemployment rate

6.5

9.9

8.1

7.8

8.1

Inflation rate

5.6

1.7

1.5

2.5

2.2

Output growth rate: annual rate of growth of output. Unemployment rate: average
over the year. Inflation rate: annual rate of change of the price level.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

The European Union


The economic performance of the European
Union in the last decade was less impressive
than that of the United States:
Average output growth from 1992 to 2000 was only

2.1%.
Low output growth was accompanied by persistent
high unemployment9.9% unemployment rate on
average.
Low output growth and high unemployment are
expected to remain in the near term.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

The European Union

Two issues dominate the agenda of


macroeconomists in Europe:
1. High unemployment. What reforms and what

macroeconomic policies are needed to reduce


the unemployment rate?
2. A common currency. What macroeconomic
changes will the introduction of the Euro bring to
the economy, and how should policy be
conducted in this new environment?

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

How Can European


Unemployment Be Reduced?
Unemployment Rates:
Europe Versus the
United States, 19602000
The European
unemployment rate has
gone from being much
lower than that of the
United States to being
much higher.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

How Can European


Unemployment Be Reduced?
Although there is no agreement on the causes
of unemployment, some of the concerns are:
Large market rigidities caused by generous

unemployment benefits, too high a minimum wage,


and too high a level of worker protection.
A wage explosion in the 1970s, which increased
labor costs and led firms to decrease employment.

A decrease in unemployment will require some


labor market reforms, wage moderation, and
appropriate macroeconomic policies.
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

What Will the Euro Do for Europe?


A common currency can:
Reduce uncertainties associated with the relative

price of currencies.
Contribute to economic growth, especially when
accompanied by the removal of other obstacles to
trade between European countries.
Create difficulties for some countries associated
with the move to a common monetary policy.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

1-2

Japan, 2000

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Japan
Table 1-2 Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation in Japan,
1960-2002 (in percent)
1960-2000
(average)

1992-2000
(average)

2000

2001

2002
(forecast)

Output growth rate

5.5

1.2

1.5

0.7

1.0

Unemployment rate

2.0

3.0

4.7

5.0

5.5

Inflation rate

4.5

0.1

1.6

1.6

1.4

Output growth rate: annual rate of growth of output. Unemployment rate: average
over the year. Inflation rate: annual rate of change of the price level.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Japan
In the Japanese economy, there are good
news and bad news:
The average annual output growth rate since 1960

has been 5.5%. Japans output per capita is now


higher than U.S. output per capita.
The growth rate of output from 1992 to 2000 was
only 1.2%, and the forecast is for negative growth.
A projected rate of unemployment of 5.5% would
be the highest ever for Japan.
Japan is experiencing deflationnot necessarily
good news.
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

How Can European


Unemployment Be Reduced?
The Japanese Stock
Market Index, 19802000
The large increase in
the index in the second
half of the 1980s was
followed by an equally
sharp decline in the
early 1990s.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

What Happened to
Japan in the 1990s?
The trigger for the slump of the 1990s can be
found in the striking movements in Japanese
stock prices from the mid-1980s to the early
1990s. In general, stock prices move for one
of two reasons:
The fundamentals. Higher expected profits lead to

higher stock prices.


Speculative bubbles, or fads, where investors buy
stocks at high prices hoping to resell them at even
higher prices.
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

How Can Japan Recover?


The Japanese central bank has decreased
interest rates to very low levels. The government
has also used fiscal policy to increase demand.
But this has not been enough to take Japan out
of its slump.
There is a long list of problems with the
Japanese economy, including an inefficient retail
distribution system, political corruption, and
problems with the banking system. It is difficult
to predict how growth will resume in Japan.
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Gathering Economic Data


International organizations, such as the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD), gather data for
the richest countries.
For countries that are not members of the
OECD, one of the main sources of information
is the International Financial Statistics (IFS),
published by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF).

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Tugas Makalah
Topik Dunia Diambang Resesi Ekonomi
Kebijakan/Kondisi Perekonomian Di berbagai negara
Kelompok , setiap kelompok harus mencantumkan:
Permasalahan yang dihadapi, kondisi perekonomian,
kebijakan yang diambil dari negara-negara: USA,
Jepang, Eropa, China, Indonesia, Other (India, Rusia,
Eropa Timur, Amerika Latin/Australia);
Dikumpulkan minggu depan: By email dan hardcopy.
Dipilih beberapa kelompok untuk presentasi

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

PENDAPATAN NASIONAL
Merupakan alat ukur prestasi perekonomian
suatu negara;
Pendapatan Nasional Potensial vs Riil:
PN Potensial : Tingkat PN yang akan dicapai
apabila seluruh faktor-faktor produksi
digunakan (full employment);
PN Riil: PN saat sekarang (apa adanya)
Selisih keduanya jurang pendapatan nasional
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Pengangguran

Tanggungjawab perekonomian:
Menyediakan lapangan kerja sesuai dengan
jumlah tenaga kerja. Dalam sistem pasar
bebas laizzer-faire tanggungjawab tersebut
ada pada: perusahaan swasta.
Pengangguran dibagi menjadi tiga:
1. Pengangguran Normal;
2. Pengangguran Struktural;
3. Pengangguran Konjungtur.
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Inflasi
Keterkaitan antara penawaran uang dengan
inflasi
Efek buruk inflasi:

kemerosotan pendapatan riil yang diterima


masyarakat;

Kelajuan Inflasi:
Inflasi merayap (creeping inflation)

Inflasi moderat (moderate inflation);


Inflasi hyper (hyper-inflation)

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Penyebab Inflasi
Inflasi Tarikan Permintaan (demand Pull
inflation);
Inflasi Desakan Biaya (cost-push inflation);
Inflasi Diimpor
Stagflasi; Inflasi yang tinggi diikuti dengan
tingkat pengagguran yang tinggi.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Merupakan permasalahan makroekonomi
jangka panjang
Penambahan faktor-faktor produksi yan
berlaku;
Tenaga keja;
Teknologi;
Kemampan peningkatan faktor-faktor
produksi.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Neraca Pembayaran-Kurs Valuta Asing


Terjadinya globalisasi ekonomi;
Ketergantungan antar negara;
Perekonomian Terbuka
Neraca Pembayaran: Meggambarkan hubungan ekonomi yang
berlaku antra satu negara dengan negara lain (eksport, import,
transaksi jasa, aliran modal jangka pjg dan pendek).
Harus diupayakan kestabilan dalam neraca pembayaran yaitu
keadaan dimana aliran uang keluar negeri sebagai akibat
impordan aliran modal keluar adalah seimbang dengan aliran
uang yang masuk dari hasil ekspor barang dan jasa dan aliran
masuk modal asing. Keseimbangan akan menciptakan
keseimbangan kurs valuta

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Efek Neraca Pembayaran yang tidak


seimbang
Impor yang berlebihan menurunkan nilai mata
uang;
Barang-barang impor akan mahal, inflasi akan
lebih cepat;
Impor yang berlebihan akan menguragi
permintaan produksi dalam negeri dan
akhirnya mengurangi produksi dan
penyerapan tenaga kerja, pengangguran
meningkat.
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Perbedaan Pendapat Dalam Pemikiran


Ekonomi
Berbeda dalam hal menentukan:
1. Tingkat kegiatan ekonomi;
2. Pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang;
3. Sebab-sebab pengagguran dan inflasi;
4. Peranan pemerintah dalam perekonomian

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Ekonom Klasik
Adam Smith dengan buku; An inquiry into the
nature and causes of the wealth of nations
Memperkenalkan istilah the invisible hand:
interaksi antara produsen dan konsumen
dengan masing-masing kepentingan yang
berbeda akan menciptakan efisiensi dalam
perekonomian;
Berkeyakinan akan selalu tercipta full
employment;
Supply creates its own demand (jean baptiste
say)
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Suku Bunga ditentukan oleh: penawaran


tabungan masyarakat dan pemintaan dana
oleh pengusaha;
Fleksibilitas pasr tenaga kerja: tingkat upah
ditentukan oleh pemintaan dan penawaran
tenaga kerja (tidak ada pengagguran).
Pemerintah tidak perlu campur tangan cukup
mengurusi: infrastruktur, sosial, keamanan,
peradilan
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Keynesian
Depresi 1929
The General Theory of Employment, Interest
and Money merupakan kritik terhadap
pandangan kaum klasik.
Tingkat kegiatan ekonomi ditentukan oleh
Pembelajaan agregat (sisi permintaan);
Tingkat upah rigid (kaku/tidak mudah berubah
dan sulit untuk turun) sehingga terjadi
kelebihan penawaran tenaga kerja dan pasar
bebas tidak mampu mengatasi;
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Perlu campur tangan Pemerintah:


Menstabilkan tingkat harga dan mencegah inflasi;
Mengukuhkan pertumbuhan ekonomi;
Menjaga kestabilan neraca pembayaran.

Perlu Kebijakan Pemerintah erupa : Kebijakan fiskal,


moneter dan pengawasan langsung

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Pengitungan Pendapatan Nasional


Produk Domestik Bruto: Nilai barang-barang dan jasa
yang diproduksi di dalam suatu negara dalam satu
tahun tertentu (tidak memperdulikan apaka hfaktorfaktor produksi nya dimiliki Penduduk atau oleh warga
asing)
Produk Nasional Bruto: Nilai barang-barang dan jasa
yang diproduksi oleh faktor-faktor produksi yang
dimiliki warga negara di dalam suatu negara dalam
satu tahun tertentu (memperhatikankan hanya faktorfaktor produksi yang dimiliki Penduduk atau oleh
warga asing)
PDB = PNB Pendpt Netto Faktor Luar Negeri
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Pendapatan Nasional Harga Berlaku Dan


Harga Tetap

1.
2.

PDB harga Berlaku: Nilai Barang-barang dan jasa


yang dihasilkan suatu negara dalam satu tahun dan
dinilai menurut harga-harga yang berlaku pada tahun
tersebut.
Akan selalu cenderung naik karena: Pertambahan nilai fisik
barang dan jasa dalam perekonomian;
Kenaikan harga yang berlaku dalam satu periode ke periode
lainnya

PDB Harga Tetap: Harga yang berlaku pada suatu tahun tertentu
yang seterusnya digunakan untuk menilai barang dan jasa
uyang dihasilkan pada tahun-tahun lainnya. Untuk mengukur
pertumbuhan/pertambhaan produksi yang sebenarnya.
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Pendapatan Nasional Harga Pasar Dan


Harga Faktor
Dinilai menurut harga pasar apabila dihitung
dengan menggunakan harga yang dibayar
oleh pembeli
Dihitung menurut harga faktor berdasarkan
jumlah pendapatan faktor-faktor produksi yang
diperguankan untuk memproduksi barang
tersebut.
Harga Pasar: Harga Faktor+Pajak Tak
Langsung-Subsidi
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Pendapatan Nasinal Bruto Dan Netto


Pendapatan Nasional Netto = Pendapatan
Nasinal Bruto - Depresiasi

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Cara Penghitungan
Umumnya dihitung dengan cara pengeluaran
Tujuan: Mengetahui baik-buruknya
perekonomian dan mengukur pertumbuhan
yang dicapai;
Untuk data analisis makro;
Komponen Pengeluaran Agregat Dalam
Perekonomian: Konsumsi Rumah Tangga,
pengeluaran Pemerintah, Pembentukan Modal
Swasta (investasi) dan Ekspor netto
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Konsumsi Rumah Tangga (C)


Pengeluaran yang dilakukan oleh Rumah
Tangga untuk memenuhi kebutuhannya
C=Co + cY

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Pengeluaran Pemerintah (G)


Seluruh pengeluaran pemerintah baik untuk
konsumsi pemerintah maupun investasi yang
dilakukan oleh pemerintah
G=G

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Pembentukan Modal Swasta (Investasi)


Pengeluaran yang dilakukan untuk membeli
barang modal yang dapat menaikkan produksi
barang dan jasa di masa mendatang
Dapat dibakategorikan;
Pengeluaran atas barang modal;
Perubahan inventori padaakhir tahun;
Pengelaran untuk mendirikan rumah tinggal

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Ekspor Netto
Nilai seluruh ekspor pada suatu tahun
dikurangi dengan nilai impor dalam periode
yang sama.

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard

Key Terms
European Union (EU),
Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development
(OECD),
International Monetary Fund (IMF)

2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Macroeconomics, 3/e

Olivier Blanchard