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VARIABILIDAD CLIMTICA

EL NIO
OBJETIVOS


1. Describir las caractersticas de los
eventos de El Nio como la componente
mas importante de la variabilidad climtica
en el Per

2. Los pronsticos de las ATSM en la regin
Nio 3.4 es un buen predictor para
pronosticar las lluvias en la regin Andina
del Per ?.


TEMPERATURA SUPERFICIAL DEL MAR (PROMEDIO ANUAL)
PACIFIC ENSO INDICES
Nio 4 Nio 3
Nio 3.4
Nio 2
Nio 1
Modelos dinmicos
NASA GMAO model
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Greenbelt, Maryland, U.S.
NCEP Coupled Fcst Sys model
NCEP Coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS)
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling
Center- Camp Springs, Maryland, U.S.
Japan Met. Agency model
JMA Coupled General Circulation Model Dynamical Model
Japan Meteorological Agency. Tokyo, Japan
Scripps Inst. HCM
SCRIPPS/MPI Hybrid Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model Dynamical Ocean
Model, Statistical Atmospheric Model. La Jolla, California, U.S.
Lamont-Doherty model
LDEO version 4 Dynamical Model (Intermediate Coupled ocean-atmosphere
model)
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York, U.S.
POAMA (Austr) model
POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia) Dynamical Model
Bureau of Meteorology. Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
ECMWF model
ECMWF Coupled General Circulation Model Dynamical Model
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Reading, UK
UKMO model
UKMO Coupled General Circulation Model Dynamical Model
United Kingdom Met Office. Exeter, United Kingdom
SNU (Korea) model
Korea SNU Coupled Model Dynamical Model
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Soeul, South Korea
ESSIC Intermed. Coupled model
ESSIC Intermediate Coupled Model Dynamical Model
University of Maryland. College Park, Maryland, U.S.
ECHAM/MOM
ECHAM-MOM Dynamical model
International Research Institution for Climate Prediction (IRI)
Palisades, New York, U.S.
COLA ANOM
COLA Anomaly Coupled Model Dynamical model
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies. Calverton, Maryland, U.S.
MTO FRANCE model France

Fuente: IRI
Modelos estadsticos

NCEP/CPC Markov model
CPC Markov Model
NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Camp Springs, Maryland, U.S.
NOAA/CDC Linear Inverse
NOAA/CDC LINEAR INVERSE MODEL (LIM
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center .Boulder, Colorado, U.S.
NCEP/CPC Constructed Analog
CPC Constructed Analogue (CA)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Camp Springs, Maryland, U.S.
NCEP/CPC Can Cor Anal
CPC CCA (Canonical Correlation Analysis)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Camp Springs, Maryland, U.S.
Landsea/Knaff CLIPER
CLIPER Statistical Model
Colorado State University. Fort Colllins, Colorado, U.S.
Univ. BC Neural Network
UBC Neurological Network prediction Statistical Model
University of British Columbia. Victoria, BC, Canada
FSU Regression
Florida State University Regression Statistical Model
Florida State University. Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.
TDC - UCLA
UCLA TCD (Theoretical Climate Dynamics) Regression Statistical Model
Univ. of California at Los Angeles. Los Angeles, California, U.S.

Fuente: IRI
FIN
GRACIAS!