What is Decision Tools Suite?

An integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty - runs in Microsoft Excel. The Decision Tools Suite is used to analyze risk and uncertainty in a wide variety of industries. From the financial to the scientific, anyone who faces uncertainty in their quantitative analyses can benefit from The Decision Tools Suite.

The Decision Tools Suite includes

@RISK - Monte Carlo simulation Precision Tree-decision trees Top Rank -what if sensitivity analysis Stat Tools -statistical analysis and forecasting Neural Tools - predictive neural networks Evolver and RISK Optimizer -optimization.

FEATURES
Map out decisions with decision trees and influence diagrams Works in Excel Sensitivity or What-If Analysis Distribution viewing and fitting Full integration between programs Linear Programming solving methods Parallel processing Bundle pricing

BENEFITS
Identify and illustrate the best alternative No need to learn new applications Accurate description of uncertainty Easily explain results and recommendations to others Solve linear problems both large and small quickly and accurately Save money compared to buying products separately

Industries & Applications

INDUSTRY Finance And Securities Insurance / Reinsurance

SAMPLE APPLICATION
Retirement planning, Discounted Cash Flow analysis,

Manufacturing

Loss reserves estimation Premium pricing Six Sigma and quality analysis , Plant shutdown ,Product life cycle analysis Resource allocation Welfare and budgetary projections Endangered species preservation Pollution cleanup and projections

Government And Defense

Environment

How @RISK Works?!

Start by replacing uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK probability distribution functions, like Normal, Uniform, or over 35 others. These @RISK functions simply represent a range of different possible values that a cell could take instead of limiting it to just one case.

Choose your distribution from a graphical gallery, or define distributions using historical data for a given input.

HOW CAN YOU USE IT Set Up Your Model Define Uncertainty with Ease Share Your Model with Others (Share specific distribution functions with others using the @RISK Library, or swap out @RISK functions for colleagues who dont have @RISK.) Run the Simulation. Understand Your Risks

FEATURES
100% Excel calculations for simulation Seamless integration into Microsoft Excel Intuitive toolbars and right-click menus Over 40 built-in distribution functions Integration with Microsoft Project Simulation of Time-series forecasts Multi-CPU Support One-click Quick Reports

BENEFITS
Highest level of accuracy, and maximum use of multi-core processors for speed Easy navigationmultiple ways to reform common tasks Represent virtually any uncertain factor for accurate modeling Understand the risks in values that change over time Split up large simulations to run on multiple CPUs or cores and reduce simulation run time See summary of charts and graphs pre-formatted for one page

Industries & Applications

INDUSTRY

Finance And Securities

Insurance / Reinsurance

SAMPLE APPLICATION Retirement planning, Discounted Cash Flow analysis, Loss reserves estimation Premium pricing Six Sigma and quality analysis , New product analysis, Plant shutdown , Resource allocation War games Welfare and budgetary projections Endangered species preservation Pollution cleanup and projections

Manufacturing
Government And Defense Environment

What is Precision Tree?

Precision-tree helps you tackle these types of complex, sequential decisions. Visually map out, organize, and analyze decisions using decision trees. Decision trees are quantitative diagrams with nodes and branches representing different possible decision paths and chance events.

This helps you identify and calculate the value of all possible alternatives, so you can choose the best option with confidence.

How PrecisionTree Works?

Build a Decision Tree: a formal structure in which decisions and chance events are linked in sequence from left to right. Decisions, chance events, and end results are represented by nodes and connected by branches.

Analyze Your Results

Precision-Tree determines the best decision to make at each decision node and marks the branch for that decision TRUE. Once your decision tree is complete, Precision Trees decision analysis creates a full statistics report on the best decision to make and its comparison with alternative decisions. It displays probability and cumulative charts showing the probabilities of different outcomes and of an outcome less than or equal to a certain value.

FEATURES
Decision trees Risk profile reports

Policy Suggestion Report

Logic nodes Utility functions

APPLICATIONS:
INDUSTRY Defense Engineering SAMPLE APPLICATION War And Engagement Modeling Earthquake And Disaster Planning Structural Planning And Integration Resource Management Preservation Programs Portfolio Selection Real Options Analysis

Environment Finance and securities

TOP- RANKS
Define any output or bottom line cell or cells, and Top Rank will automatically find and vary all input cells which affect your output. You can also control exactly which cells youd like to analyze.

The end result is easy-to-understand tornado charts, spider graphs, and other reports which clearly identify and rank which affect your bottom line the most.

How Top Rank Works?!

Take existing spreadsheet model- select any cell or cells as outputs-Top Rank scans the spreadsheet to find cells which affect your results. Top Rank windows point to the cells they refer to via callouts, and changes in one place are automatically carried out in the other.

 Click the Run What-if button and Top Rank tries different values for each variable cell, changing values over ranges such as -10% and +10%.
Each time a new value is tried, the spreadsheet is recalculated and new results are generated.

Upon completion, TopRank ranks the variable cells according to the effect they have on your selected outputs.
You can also select exactly which cells you wish to vary, and by how much, for a more customized analysis

FEATURES
Automated what-if analysis Seamless integration into Microsoft Excel

Automatic identification of inputs

Browse through inputs with Tab key Multi-Way What-If Analysis

BENEFITS
Quickly focus your analysis Saves time

Easily identify inputs and illustrate to others

Identify scenarios of multiple inputs affecting results

Neural Tools
NeuralTools gives Microsoft Excel - the industry-standard data analysis and modeling tool

The problems Neural Networks are used

Classification Problems: Problems in which you are trying to determine what type of category an unknown item falls into. Examples include medical diagnoses and prediction of credit repayment ability. Numeric Problems: Situations where you need to predict a specific numeric outcome. Examples include stock price forecasting and predicting the level of sales during a future time period.

Difference in professional and industrial:

Datasets in NeuralTools Professional are limited to 1000 cases, while NeuralTools Industrial supports datasets with up to 16,777,216 cases. Live Prediction, where predicted values are calculated as new data is entered into your Excel worksheet, is provided in NeuralTools Industrial only. This live calculation happens automatically, just like other Excel recalculations.

Its features and working

Neural tools-reporting usage of excel features to edit, format are used. Live prediction

Data sharing is easier-saves as excel file Use standard Excel capabilities to read in data from Microsoft SQL Server, Oracle, Microsoft Access, or any other ODBC compliant database. Load data from text files or other applications if you can read it into Excel, you can use it with NeuralTools!

NeuralTools Data Management

Define any number of datasets, each with the variables you want to analyze, directly from your data in excel. NeuralTools intelligently assesses your blocks of data, suggesting variable names and types as well as data locations.

Your datasets and variables can reside in different workbooks and worksheets, allowing you to organize your data as you see fit. Then, you train neural networks that refer to your variables, instead of re- selecting your data over and over again in excel. Neuraltools' variables aren't limited in size to a single column of data in an excel worksheet you can use the same column across up to 255 worksheets for a single variable!

 New statistics in Excel

Features Of Stat Tools

Live updating when input data changes Intelligent data management Capacity for large data sets; support for Excel 2010 worksheet size Excel-based reporting and charting Save results in Excel workbooks

Benefits Of Stat Tools

Replaces questionable Excel functions and perform wide range of analyses. Statistical reports and charts always reflect latest data. Quick definition of data sets; management of multiple data sets. No limits on amount of data to analyze (Industrial only. 10,000 data points per variable for Professional). Full customization capabilities on all Stat Tools reports Share Stat Tools reports with any Excel user, even if they dont have Stat Tools

Industrial and application of stat tools

Industry
Finance and securities

Applications
Sales forecasting, Retirement planning
Manufacturing quality control, Customer service improvement Improving quality of care, Research Six Sigma and quality analysis, Product life cycle analysis, Demand forecasting

Six sigma/ quality analysis Healthcare Manufacturing

Evolver
Evolver uses innovative genetic algorithm (GA), Opt Quest, and linear programming technology to quickly solve problems in finance,

distribution, scheduling, resource allocation, manufacturing, budgeting,

engineering, and more. Virtually any type of problem that can be modelled in Excel can be solved by Evolver, including otherwise unsolvable, complex nonlinear problems. Evolver has a unique ability arrive at the best overall global solution to a problemsolutions traditional solvers typically miss.

Features of evolver
Genetic algorithm optimization Opt Quest solving engine 100% Excel calculations INTERFACE: Seamless integration into Microsoft Excel Streamlined interface MODEL DEFINITION: Ranges for adjustable cells and constraints Six solving methods Discrete adjustable cells

Benefits of Evolver
Find the best global solution to complex, real-life problems.

It provides great results and quickly on many types of models.

Highest level of computation accuracy

Fewer nested dialogs and fast model setup

Always have the best method for different types of problems Specify increments (such as batches of 10) within adjustable cells ranges, improving accuracy for many types of models. Also speeds up optimization.

Industry And Application Of Evolver

Industry AIRLINES and HOTELS Application Yield management with uncertain demand Job shop, production, manpower scheduling Inventory management Capacity planning Product mix decisions. Portfolio maximization Hedging strategies Portfolio balancing Retirement planning.

MANUFACTURING

FINANCE

RISK Optimizer
Program optimization or software optimization - the process of modifying a software system to make some aspect of it work more efficiently or use fewer resources. It is done so that it executes more rapidly, or is capable of operating with less memory storage or other resources, or draw less power.
Traditional optimization methods ignore this uncertainty, a very risky approach. Risk optimizer tells you not only the best combination of inputs to use, but the risk associated with each strategy.

 Seek out strategies which help to minimize your risks while achieving your goals.
Combines the Monte Carlo simulation technology of @RISK, palisades risk analysis add-in- to allow the optimization of excel spreadsheet models that contain uncertain values Take any optimization problem and replace uncertain values with @RISK probability distribution functions that represent a range of possible values.

For each trial solution risk optimizer tries during optimization, it runs a Monte Carlo simulation, finding the combination of adjustable cells that provides the best simulation results.

How RISK Optimizer Works

Add Simulation to Optimization Suppose you have several factories and want to find the best locations to manufacture different products to meet demand in nearby cities. You want to maximize profits and minimize shipping costs But key factors out of your control are uncertain: shipping costs, demand, etc

 With RISK Optimizer, those uncertain factors are represented with probability distribution functions (like Normal, Triangle, etc.) so that a Monte Carlo simulation can be run for each trial allocation of manufacturing volume. In this way, you can maximize the mean of the simulated output say profits an account for risk during optimization.

Using RISK Optimizer involves three simple steps

1. Set Up Your Model.
2. Run the Optimization 3. View Optimization Results.

FEATURES
Optimization under uncertainty Six solving methods

@RISK graphs and reports

Efficient constraint handling

100% Excel calculations for simulation

 Solve problems with more accuracy then ever. Always have the best method for different types of problems Analyze your solutions with all @RISK graphs, reports, and features. With Opt Quest models, RISK Optimizer will not attempt solutions that fail constraints, make optimizations faster. Nonlinear constraints are also fast. Highest level of computation accuracy

BENEFITS

05-Saran 10-Kishore 27-Manidhar 37-Ruchika 43-Shivani