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WYWWAWT (What you will walk away with today)

Be aware of assumptions in your arguments.

Understand the assumptions that others are making.


Realize that you are biased. The exercises we go through today should clearly demonstrate that everyone is human. Know that often times we look to confirm what we know rather than analyze multiple perspectives

All of this will shape you as you write your paper.

Agenda

Writing Tips Cognitive Dissonance: 3 experiment Paper discussion

Here, in short, is what I want to tell you. Know what each sentence says, What it doesnt say, And what it implies. Of these, the hardest is knowing what each sentence actually says.
Several short sentences about writing by Verlyn Klinkenborg

Content

Structure

Style

Insight

Agenda

Writing Tips Cognitive Dissonance: 3 experiments Paper outline discussion

How do we avoid confirmation bias?


Q: What IS confirmation bias?

A: Tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.

Critical Thinking
Rationality Distinguish between emotion and reason; require evidence, and look for explanations rather than the right answer Discipline Be precise, avoid snap judgments, and analyze attempts to manipulate thinking or use of irrational appeals Open mindedness Consider and evaluate evidence, inferences, and interpretations whether or not they are consistent with existing beliefs Judgment Recognize the merit of assumptions and perspectives that are different from your own, and seek supporting evidence Self awareness Recognize your own assumptions, biases, and frames of reference

We are human
1. We prefer stories to statistics

2. We seek to confirm, not to question, our ideas


3. We rarely appreciate the role of chance and coincidence in shaping events 4. We sometimes misperceive the world around us 5. We tend to oversimplify our thinking 6. We have faulty memories.

Cognitive Dissonance: 3 experiments


Exercise 1: Guess the Number Rule
Exercise 2: Child Custody

Exercise 3: Candy Shop

Guess the Number Rule

Guess the Number Rule


Observation/data Falsification Hypothesis Confirmation Bias

6,8,10 20,22,24 3,5,7 25,27,29 200,202,204

Counting up by 2s Counting up by 2s Counting up by 2s Counting up by 2s Counting up by 2s Counting up by 2s Counting up by 2s

50 60 70 80 90 100 50

Guess the Number Rule


Observation/data Falsification Hypothesis Confirmation Bias

10,20,30 100,500,894 1,90,20 27,13, 4 55,2,999

Counting up by 2s Counting up by multiples Countg up w/even nos. Counting up Counting up Counting up Counting up by 2s

50 60 70 80 90 100 50

Child Custody

Child Custody
This is a child custody case: Parent A was moderately suitable to be the guardian in multiple ways. Parent B had a mix of very positive and some negative qualities: a close relationship with the child but a job that would take him or her away for long periods.

Left Side of the Room


Which parent should have custody of the child?

Right Side of the Room


Which parent should be denied custody of the child?

Child Custody

Confirmation BiasB wins!!

People tend to test hypotheses in a one-sided way


Even a small change in wording a question can affect

How people search through available information


The conclusions they reach.

HUGE implications on how our perceptions / biases can affect logical, rational decision making

Exercise 3: Candy Shop

Form Groups of Two Person # 1 should have their backs to this slide (Subject)
Person # 2 should be able to read the slide (Experimenter)

NO PEEKING NO PEEKING. If a subject can read this then you forfeit ALL candy.
Only experimenters should be able to see this slide.

Experimenters ONLY!
1. Have your subjects examine the candy as you read this (no eating!) 2. Ask your subject to rate each candy on a 1-3 scale (1 = Likes the most) (3 = Likes the least) 3. Sort the candy accordingly. Keep out three candies that receive the same score (doesnt matter what score, as long as they are the SAME score). 4. Put away the rest. Spread the three out in front of the subject. 5. Point out these were rated the same. Call them A, B, C 6. Pick up B (the one in the middle) and take it away (conceal in hand). 7. Point to A and C and ask the subject to think carefully, weighing the pros and cons and choose which one of the remaining two, A or C they would like to have now. 8. Take that one away, and set B down in its place. Ask the subject to choose between the remaining B and whichever one was rejected.

9. Let the subject make their final choice. Write the letter on a slip of paper.

What does this mean?


You were forced to experience a degree of dissonance. Most people choose B Cognitive Dissonance: Relying (usually unconsciously) on a past reference or piece of information when making decisions.
It is instinctively difficult to sustain a state of dissonance, so we likely denigrate the rejected choice.

Once you have a reason to dislike something, the dissonance is over. Thus, we reject and stick to our rejected choices.

Assumptions
Generally speaking, we tend to trust writers and their conclusions more when they explicitly state their assumptions and support them with reasoning or evidence. However, even if they are explicit, we should not think that all those assumptions are relevant and valid: we still need to evaluate those assumptions just as critically as we would any other kind of assumption.

Agenda

Writing Tips Cognitive Dissonance experiments Paper discussion

Process: Follow all the steps


Draft

Plan

Edit

Publish

Create your plan: Due FRI


Discourse Journal 3, Cycle 1

Consider the expansion of the NYC Citi Bike Bike Share program from the perspective of all stakeholders.
Create a working outline and a separate working introductory paragraph targeting the Cycle 3 paper. Prepare to include various arguments as you analyze each. Present strategies, alternatives, and risks. Offer sourced evidence throughout.

NOTE: Stay flexible; allow for new information that may come from the next plenary or new readings).
Due Fri 2/21/14 by 6pm

Consider the structure, idea 1


1.

Lead in: Big Idea First: State the main point at the start Set reader expectations Body: supporting point 1
f

2.

transition (guide the reader)


supporting point 2
f

transition (guide the reader)

supporting point 3
f

3.

Close:

Recap B I and Extend

Consider the structure, idea 2


1.

Lead in: Tease the main point at start / issue challenge or problem

2.

Body: supporting point 1


f

transition (guide the reader) supporting point 2


f

transition (guide the reader) supporting point 3


f

3.

Big Idea Last: Reveal the main point / solution at end Close: Recap and Extend

Five Paragraph Essay Outline: I. Introductory Paragraph A. Create a thesis that will draw in the audience. 1. Note subtopic 1 2. Note subtopic 2 3. Note subtopic 3 B. Create a strong transition II. First Supporting Paragraph A. Restate what subtopic 1 is 1. Explain it 2. Supporting details and/or examples B. Transition III. Second Supporting Paragraph A. Restate what subtopic 2 is 1. Explain it 2. Supporting details and/or examples B. Transition IV. Third Supporting Paragraph A. Restate what subtopic 3 is 1. Explain it 2. Supporting details and/or examples B. Transition V. Conclusion or closing summary A. Synthesis and/or conclusion of thesis B. Extension

Cycle1 Paper:
Choose one expansion scenario to write about. Pick one that you feel gives you the best opportunity to present a complete and accurate portrayal of the benefits and potential consequences of that choice. The paper's purpose is to develop a balanced appraisal of the arguments supporting the expansion option you choose, weighed against your analysis of its challenges and potential problems. You might advocate for one particular scenario but this preference is not the focus your reasoning behind numerous viewpoints is key.

Analyze competing arguments that favor or oppose the plan. Frame your discussion in terms of strengths and weaknesses of different players involved. Discuss how stakeholder groups would be affected or mobilized. Consider what might need to happen to move specific ideas forward. Assess the potential benefits, costs and risks from the perspective of salient stakeholders. Draw on the Cycle's plenaries and readings to support your analysis. Draft due in class for workshop Feb. 27 - Final - 1500 words - Due Sun March 2, 2014 by 11:55 PM via Assignments to TURN IT IN

WYWWAWT (What you will walk away with today)


Be aware of assumptions in your arguments.

Understand the assumptions that others are making.


Realize that you are biased. The exercises we go through today should clearly demonstrate that everyone is human. Know that often times we look to confirm what we know rather than analyze multiple perspectives

All of this will shape you as you write your paper.

BiP next week


Week 5
Plenary Topic:

February 24, 2014


Business and Government

Plenary Location: Skirball Plenary Speakers: Dan Doctoroff, CEO and President, Bloomberg, LP Mayor of Economic Development and Rebuilding for the City of NY Inquiry (READ): 1. Governments Greatest Achievements 2. How Detroit Went Broke 3. Heres the Real Way New York is Like Detroit Planning Papers. Part 2 Sections 4a c, pp. 160 167. Organizing Ideas & Drafting. Part 2, Sections 4e-f, pp. 169-172. Exercise pp. 173-174.

Writing Lesson:

Think outside the box


On a piece of scrap paper, connect all nine dots by drawing four straight lines without lifting the pencil from the paper.