Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
James Dunn
Center for Technology
Commercialization
Conf. on Future Energy
Washington, DC
Sept. 2006
PV Industry - ready to Take-off?
Sharp
Kyosera
BP Solar
Shell Solar
Schott
Electric power Generation costs
Type Cost (c/kWh)
Combined cycle gas turbine 3-5
Wind Power 4-7
Biomass gasification 7-9
Remote diesel generation 20-40
Solar PV central station 20-30
Solar PV distributed 20-50
2020 Target PV Cost 5-10
Top 20 players in 2006
• • Applied Materials (US) • • BP Solar (UK)
• Evergreen Solar (US) • Carmanah (Canada)
• First Solar (US) • Conergy (Germany)
• GT Solar (US) • Ersol (Germany)
• Hemlock (US) • Kyocera (Japan)
• SunPower (US) • M.Setek (Japan)
• Motech (Taiwan)
• Q-Cells (Germany)
• REC (Norway)
• US Co’s to Watch: • Sanyo (Japan)
– Dow Corning • Sharp (Japan)
– Solar Sciences • SolarWorld (Germany)
– NanoSolar • • Suntech (China)
- Energy Conversion Devices • Tokuyama (Japan)
- Daystar
- Spire – Equip, Supplier
Market Forecast – Photon Consulting
Large 100-500 kW Installations
Solar PV Trends
Tracking Collectors
New PV Roofing Tiles
New PV Designs
• Concentrating Solar
Systems
Improved PV Modules
• Larger sizes and features
• Easy to Install
• Longer life
• Higher efficiency – up to 22%
• Higher Cost per Watt – 2005 !
Solar ‘Deals’ ?
• Evergreen EC120 Solar Pan
120 Watts, 12 Volts DC -
Made in USA
• Only $4.29 per Watt !
• *Sale ends at 11AM ET,
Wednesday, 9/20/2006
$518.00 Save $337.00
NREL Solar Hydrogen Home
Vision
PV Silicon supply solutions
Several pathways:
New PV grade Materials like Dow PV1101
New low cost Processes and Solar PV plants
Better yields – Thinner wafers
Thin Films and NanoSolar materials
Non Si Technologies CIGS, TiO2, etc.
R&D in higher efficiencies - $53M Univ. DE.
New Solar Silicon materials
Dow Corning's PV1101
Photovoltaic arrays
Borohydride
Fuel Tank Catalyst
Fuel Main
Pump Chamber
Vessel
World Trade Center complex goes
LEED
Future plans may
Include solar
Can the US Regain leadership?
Rapid Expansion Forecast
• Solar production increase six-fold by 2010 : 10 GW BY 2010.
The bulk of this growth will be in crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar
cells/modules. Production of high purity Si feedstock rising from
32,000 tons in 2005 to over 85,000 tons in 2010, At the same time,
increasing cell efficiencies and decreasing waste will enable silicon
usage per watt to improve by 40%, from 11.5 g/W in 2005 to 7 g/W
in 2010.
Total c-Si cell/module production should exceed 8 GW by 2010.
stronge growth of non-traditional technologies (CdTe, a-Si, CIS, μc-
Si, concentrators)
COFE - Wash. DC
James Dunn
Center for Technology Commercialization
Sept. 2006
Future Vehicle Techs. 2010-2020
• Many configurations, options & drive trains
• Lower Drag – high efficiency, streamlined bodies
• Advanced Spaceframes – Alum. + more magnesium
• Light weight Composite bodies and components
• New Airless tires and compliant wheels
• New Engines like Free Piston Engine-Generators
• Many fuels – Ethanol, CNG, BioDiesel, Syngas ?
• More Electric drives and Wheel Motors
• Novel Energy storage systems
• Adv. Sensors/controls – Rear view cameras & auto-parking
• Auto-Pilots - Lane tracking & auto. navigation
Vehicle Trends
Future drivetrain options
Gas, Diesel, or H2 Hybrid vehicles
Plug-In Hybrids – novel energy storage
Pure EV’s, some with series hybrid ICE
Hydraulic Hybrids – I.E. EPA
Compressed Air drive systems
New Magnetic motor drives and Wheel Motors
New IC Engines – Scuderi Split Cycle Engine,
Rand Cam engine, DOD engines, Sterlings,
and Free Piston Engines/Generators
Multi-fuelled – CNG, Ethanol, Gas, Biofuels, H2
Free Piston Engines
Basic Free Piston Engine Specs
• 35 KW design
• Simple - 1 Moving part
• Hydrogen Combustion – No Emissions
• 50% Thermal Efficiency
• Low Cost
• Long Life
Future Vehicle Technology
Technology Time Mpg
• Hybrid Gas-electric 2000-2015 50-85+
• Hybrid diesel-electric 2007-2015 75-100
• Hydrogen ICE 2008-2030 40-75
• Alt. Fuel Hybrids 2010-2020 60-100
• Plug-in Hybrids/EV’s 2010-2025 100-175
• H2 ICE Hybrids 2015-2030 100-150
• Hybrid MicroTurbine 2018-2030 100-175
• Hydrogen Fuel Cell 2020-2035 75-120
Alternative Fuels