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Solar Energy: “Silicon Secrets”

James Dunn
Center for Technology
Commercialization
Conf. on Future Energy
Washington, DC
Sept. 2006
PV Industry - ready to Take-off?

• Many large players entering Market like


Honda, Mitsubishi, and Si Valley co’s
• Technology Advances
• Renewable Energy “Green” credits
• Utilities need Green Power
• DOE and DOD funding
• Zero Energy Homes
Silicon – “Energy Gold”
• Solar power = less than 1 % of world's
electricity - Growing over 40 % annually,
$15 billion globally, says Rhone Resch,
Pres. of the Solar Energy Industry Assoc.

• "The solar industry is the next great high-


tech industry," Resch said. "Our estimate is
that within 10 years solar could be the
lowest cost option for US electricity"
World PV Installations
PV Market Growth
US losing market share
• US has LOST lead in solar power development.
• In 1997, U.S. solar power mfg captured 100% of
the domestic market;
• in 2003, we captured only 73%.
• In 1997, U.S. mfgr.s captured over 40% of the
world market;
• in 2003, they captured only 14%.
• We need to regain our Leadership!
Is there enough Silicon materials?

• 94% of PV Market uses Silicon


• Typically use “waste” si from
Semiconductor industry @ $30-40/kg
• Demand outpacing supply by 2-3X
• Spot market prices up to $175/kg!
• New PV grade Silicon emerging
• New non–Si technologies & methods
• New Thin Film and flexible PV designs
Serious Silicon Shortages
• World Si production about 35,000 Tons/yr.
• PV Currently using up to 50% of
Semiconductor grade materials ($$$$)
• Need 50-85,000 Tons Si to meet growth
• Si Represents 30-40% of total Panel cost
• Need to expand Si mfg. and reduce cost
• Typical (Siemens) plant costs $350-500M
PV Types and Efficiencies
Basic PV operation
Spectral Response
PhotoVoltaic Market Explosion
System Prices and cost targets
Shipments and Job forecast
PV Efficiency Improving
Major players – Where is the US?

Sharp
Kyosera
BP Solar
Shell Solar
Schott
Electric power Generation costs
Type Cost (c/kWh)
Combined cycle gas turbine 3-5
Wind Power 4-7
Biomass gasification 7-9
Remote diesel generation 20-40
Solar PV central station 20-30
Solar PV distributed 20-50
2020 Target PV Cost 5-10
Top 20 players in 2006
• • Applied Materials (US) • • BP Solar (UK)
• Evergreen Solar (US) • Carmanah (Canada)
• First Solar (US) • Conergy (Germany)
• GT Solar (US) • Ersol (Germany)
• Hemlock (US) • Kyocera (Japan)
• SunPower (US) • M.Setek (Japan)
• Motech (Taiwan)
• Q-Cells (Germany)
• REC (Norway)
• US Co’s to Watch: • Sanyo (Japan)
– Dow Corning • Sharp (Japan)
– Solar Sciences • SolarWorld (Germany)
– NanoSolar • • Suntech (China)
- Energy Conversion Devices • Tokuyama (Japan)
- Daystar
- Spire – Equip, Supplier
Market Forecast – Photon Consulting
Large 100-500 kW Installations
Solar PV Trends
Tracking Collectors
New PV Roofing Tiles
New PV Designs
• Concentrating Solar
Systems
Improved PV Modules
• Larger sizes and features
• Easy to Install
• Longer life
• Higher efficiency – up to 22%
• Higher Cost per Watt – 2005 !
Solar ‘Deals’ ?
• Evergreen EC120 Solar Pan
120 Watts, 12 Volts DC -
Made in USA
• Only $4.29 per Watt !
• *Sale ends at 11AM ET,
Wednesday, 9/20/2006
$518.00 Save $337.00
NREL Solar Hydrogen Home
Vision
PV Silicon supply solutions
Several pathways:
New PV grade Materials like Dow PV1101
New low cost Processes and Solar PV plants
Better yields – Thinner wafers
Thin Films and NanoSolar materials
Non Si Technologies CIGS, TiO2, etc.
R&D in higher efficiencies - $53M Univ. DE.
New Solar Silicon materials
Dow Corning's PV1101

Coarser grade – 5-9’s purity


Need to blend with Semi grade Polysilicon
Cost savings limited (10% max)
Production limited
Requires blending
Market limited window
PV / Fuel Cell Hybrid Power
Plants
4-250-watt Fuel
Cells

Photovoltaic arrays

Filter for hydrogen


going to fuel cells

Borohydride
Fuel Tank Catalyst
Fuel Main
Pump Chamber
Vessel
World Trade Center complex goes
LEED
Future plans may
Include solar
Can the US Regain leadership?
Rapid Expansion Forecast
• Solar production increase six-fold by 2010 : 10 GW BY 2010.
The bulk of this growth will be in crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar
cells/modules. Production of high purity Si feedstock rising from
32,000 tons in 2005 to over 85,000 tons in 2010, At the same time,
increasing cell efficiencies and decreasing waste will enable silicon
usage per watt to improve by 40%, from 11.5 g/W in 2005 to 7 g/W
in 2010.
Total c-Si cell/module production should exceed 8 GW by 2010.
stronge growth of non-traditional technologies (CdTe, a-Si, CIS, μc-
Si, concentrators)

• We expect nontraditional production to expand from 0.15 GW (9%


market share) in 2005 to 2 GW (20% market share) in 2010.
Zero Energy Solar Homes
PV competes with
Small Wind Turbines
• New Propeller-Free • New Integrated
Spiral Designs – Inverters and controls
New World Global Warming Funds
Richard Branson pledged $3 billion to
battle global warming, 9-22-06
Clinton announced launch of a $1B
renewable energy investment fund 9-23

Clinton’s Green Fund to focus on


reducing pollution and our dependence
on fossil fuels.
“The Earth is warming at an alarming
rate, we are running out of fossil fuels,
and it is time for us to take action to
correct these problems,” Clinton said.
“This is also a tremendous opportunity
and there are countless good new jobs
to be created in green energy field.”
The Race Heats up

• Billions being spent


• Many large players
• Unlimited Market growth
• Improved performance
• Closing in on Electric costs
• Ideal for emerging countries
Future Vehicle Technology

COFE - Wash. DC
James Dunn
Center for Technology Commercialization
Sept. 2006
Future Vehicle Techs. 2010-2020
• Many configurations, options & drive trains
• Lower Drag – high efficiency, streamlined bodies
• Advanced Spaceframes – Alum. + more magnesium
• Light weight Composite bodies and components
• New Airless tires and compliant wheels
• New Engines like Free Piston Engine-Generators
• Many fuels – Ethanol, CNG, BioDiesel, Syngas ?
• More Electric drives and Wheel Motors
• Novel Energy storage systems
• Adv. Sensors/controls – Rear view cameras & auto-parking
• Auto-Pilots - Lane tracking & auto. navigation
Vehicle Trends
Future drivetrain options
Gas, Diesel, or H2 Hybrid vehicles
Plug-In Hybrids – novel energy storage
Pure EV’s, some with series hybrid ICE
Hydraulic Hybrids – I.E. EPA
Compressed Air drive systems
New Magnetic motor drives and Wheel Motors
New IC Engines – Scuderi Split Cycle Engine,
Rand Cam engine, DOD engines, Sterlings,
and Free Piston Engines/Generators
Multi-fuelled – CNG, Ethanol, Gas, Biofuels, H2
Free Piston Engines
Basic Free Piston Engine Specs
• 35 KW design
• Simple - 1 Moving part
• Hydrogen Combustion – No Emissions
• 50% Thermal Efficiency
• Low Cost
• Long Life
Future Vehicle Technology
Technology Time Mpg
• Hybrid Gas-electric 2000-2015 50-85+
• Hybrid diesel-electric 2007-2015 75-100
• Hydrogen ICE 2008-2030 40-75
• Alt. Fuel Hybrids 2010-2020 60-100
• Plug-in Hybrids/EV’s 2010-2025 100-175
• H2 ICE Hybrids 2015-2030 100-150
• Hybrid MicroTurbine 2018-2030 100-175
• Hydrogen Fuel Cell 2020-2035 75-120
Alternative Fuels

Ethanol, Methanol, CNG


BioDiesel + SynDiesel
(Waste) Vegetable oils
BioMass derived fuels, SynFuels
H2, Urea, Ammonia
Radioactive Pellets/Isotopes
Other ?
Ford E-450 Van with Triton V-
10 Hydrogen ICE
Hybrid Trucks & buses
New Tires and Wheels
Yes – No Air used !
Improved driving – less risk
May be on market by 2008
New Hybrid Designs
Use of U-caps and low
cost LiIon batts
250 MPG ??
Battery EV’s
Coming in 2012 ??
New Fuel Cell cars

GM Sequel – Equinox – 100 units to be field


tested
BMW – Dual H2/Gas 750
What is it?
Home Fuel Cell Vehicle
Refueling Station

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